Wednesday 19 July 2017
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Co-hosts: Gordon Chang, Forbes.com and David Livingston, The Space Show
Wednesday 19 July 2017 / Hour 1, Block A: Charles Burton, Brock University, in re: the death of Liu Xiaobo. John McCain was found to have brain cancer today. He’ll go under rigorous treatment, some of the best present-day medicine available. Liu Xiaobo, Nobelist, lawyer and Chinese human-rights activist, recently died of cancer while in prison, after having been denied treatment. “He was so far gone that there was no prospect of his treatment. And now his wife has disappeared . . . the regime is essentially heartless.” Does this describe strength or weakness? At this stage Xi’s showing compromise would be seen as weakness. Xi is eliminating whatever remnants may challenge his power. This is moving toward a one-way dictatorship. . . . He’s losing patience in both international affairs and human rights. Trump will have no option but to react in a way suitable to China’s actions to quell public opinion.
Wednesday 19 July 2017 / Hour 1, Block B: Steve Yates, Idaho GOP chairman and running for Lt-Gov of Idaho: YatesforIdaho.com; CEO of D.C. International Advisory; advisor to Vice President Dick Cheney, in re: the future of U.S.-China relations. Now that the unelected tyrants of Beijing have in effect murdered Liu Xiaobo, will that redound to the political benefit of Taiwan? . . . The hundred days allowed from Mar-a-Lago is up; Beijing is not used to having to deal with any real timeline vis-à-vis Washington. They believe that the Americans always blink. . . . Irony: As Xi tries to bully Trump in order to look tough for his upcoming XIX Party Congress, he makes it likely that Washington will respond sharply to the bullying and take steps that make Xi look weak.
Wednesday 19 July 2017 / Hour 1, Block C: Michael Auslin, Hoover and WSJ , in re: South China Sea. Xi has no obvious successor. The wife of the Nobelist and murdered Liu Xiaobo is suddenly missing. Although Chinese dips wear suits and ties, they're thugs. Increasing crackdown as we get closer to the Party Congress. The spin is: Just let Xi get through the Congress and then he’ll initiate huge, meaningful reforms. [Do not hold breath. –ed.]
Wednesday 19 July 2017 / Hour 1, Block D: Gordon Chang, in re: Gordon is moderating a panel entitled, “Fight Tonight,” the motto of US forces in Korea. That’s not merely a motto, but a state of existence there. Chris Hill, Mark Lippert, An ho-yang. Moon wants good relations with North Korea, whom he sees not as [mass murderers] but just as brother Koreans. Kim in Pyongyamg wants not to deal with Moon, whom he sees as a puppet, but with Trump. The clock is: a year or eighteen months before DPRK can hit the US with a nuclear-tipped missile. Even the historically mild Chris Hill now says that North Korea is aiming at [obliterating?] South Korea. The THAAD missile system that Moon Jae-in seems to want to remove. Casualties estimated to be from 64,00 to hundreds of thousands.
Wednesday 19 July 2017 / Hour 2, Block A: Alan Tonelson, independent economic policy analyst; RealityChek blog; a @AlanTonelson, in re: what happened at the U.S.-China Comprehensive Economic Dialogue. The breakdown occurred in connection with steel: China produces roughly one-half of the world’s steel requirements, vastly ore than it needs domestically; has been exporting the surplus and hereby driving down world prices, threatening steel industry where its not subsidized: the US. China has used the US as its primary dumping ground. The American worker loses his job — in heavy industry, incl aluminum. All to the detriment of US. Europe, South America. The Chinese consumer is still not nearly rich enough to buy the output. There’s no further utility to discussing trade with China, which will not pen its markets, irrespective of whatever agreements it may sign, It simply will not comply. Time to dispense with the illusion that the US can grow by exporting to The only solution is to curb Chinese access to US markets. Last year China agreed to let US credit-card issuers have access to the Chinese market. That was a lie. Five years ago China lost a relevant WTO case; now Wilbur Ross has issued regulations – so vague that it’ll take years to get things working. Meanwhile, 80% of US ATMs accept Chinese credit cards! https://alantonelson.wordpress.com/2017/07/17/whats-left-of-our-economy-...
Wednesday 19 July 2017 / Hour 2, Block B: Andrew Collier, managing director of Orient Capital Research in Hong Kong; author, Shadow Banking and the Rise of Capitalism in China; in re: the U.S.-China Comprehensive Economic Dialogue from the Asian perspective. Oops – this morning both sides cancelled their press conferences. People’s Daily: “The US is making China great again.” . . . Chinese banks don’t want American Express cards in China. . . . Chinese financial system was a mess when I visited these past weeks.
Wednesday 19 July 2017 / Hour 2, Block C: Kori Schake, Hoover, in re: Lessons of history. Thucydides Trap. Late in the course of the war, the Athenian Paracles died in the plague in Athens. All the young demagogues, children of Socrates, vied for power. Decided to put all their eggs in one basket, invade Sicily. After their defeat, they were unable to sustain their territory, which brought them to ruins. Populism unguided by the wisdom of elites leads to bad outcomes. Athens is seen as a vibrant culture, unlike the narrative of Sparta, which is militaristic, cold, restrained. We glorify Athens, which is the root of democracy, but they didn’t have a lot of the institutional constraints that we think of in contemporary democracy. Pericles ended up assisting the Spartan side. At the time of writing, Sparta was more respected, disciplined and unfazed by neighboring activity.
Wednesday 19 July 2017 / Hour 2, Block D: Andrew C McCarthy, NRO, in re: Why was Natalia Veselnitskaya allowed into the US? She arrived in 2015; unnatural accommodations; she was needed as a lawyer. Do we know why she was let in for Donald, Jr.? “She’s not qualified as a lawyer,” so a work visa doesn’t make sense. She’s everywhere, but she’s nowhere. Have you seen an example like this before? I don’t know; perhaps it was just an act of incompetence; maybe the State Department let her in because the Justice Department had let her in.
Wednesday 19 July 2017 / Hour 3, Block A: Lara M Brown, George Washington University, and Salina Zito, New York Daily News, in re: US domestic politics. Wotta maelstrom. (1 of 2)
Wednesday 19 July 2017 / Hour 3, Block B: Lara M Brown, George Washington University, and Salina Zito, New York Daily News, in re: US domestic politics. (2 of 2)
Wednesday 19 July 2017 / Hour 3, Block C: Robert Zimmerman, BehindtheBlack.com and author, Capitalism in Space, in re:
Wednesday 19 July 2017 / Hour 3, Block D: Robert Zimmerman, BehindtheBlack.com and author, Capitalism in Space, in re:
Wednesday 19 July 2017 / Hour 4, Block A: Lynne Olson, Last Hope Island: Britain, Occupied Europe, and the Brotherhood That Helped Turn the Tide of War
Wednesday 19 July 2017 / Hour 4, Block B: Lynne Olson, Last Hope Island: Britain, Occupied Europe, and the Brotherhood That Helped Turn the Tide of War
Wednesday 19 July 2017 / Hour 4, Block C: Hotel Mars, episode n. Lindley Johnson, NASA Planetary Defense Officer, in re: Ground-based telescopes to find 1800 (as of last year) asteroids of all sizes. Other technology, such as space-based telescopes, are finding more than what’s in the visible part of the spectrum, most notably infrared part of spectrum. “We are not searching 24/7,” perhaps not as much as you might like, but valuable research. what have we learned from researching these asteroids? Size, how far away, probability of hitting Earth, number on a scale? If greater than 0, there’s a relatively high probability, and measures must be taken to protect our planet. “It’s a computerized game,” to predict if or when an asteroid hits. Are we ready for a surprise asteroid likely to hit in the next six years? “We’d want to impact it a year or two earlier before the encounter,” 100m—200m in diameter asteroid, we’d stand a pretty good chance. The change in velocity builds up and becomes a change in position. (1 of 2)
Wednesday 19 July 2017 / Hour 4, Block D: Hotel Mars, episode n. Lindley Johnson, NASA Planetary Defense Officer, in re: Planetary defense against arriving asteroids. (2 of 2)
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