Wednesday 22 January 2014
Photo, above:
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Co-hosts: Gordon Chang, Forbes.com. Dr. David M. Livingston, The Space Show.
Hour One
Wednesday 22 January 2014 / Hour 1, Block A: Walter Lohman, Director of Asian Studies Center at The Heritage Foundation, in re: China bursts back as an imperial power: Revanchism. Xi Jinping's brother-in-law spends time in the Caymans and American Samoa. China's aspirational blue-water navy. Not yet a conventional threat to US forces, but reckless behavior could easily lead to confrontation.
In Dec, a Chinese vessel cut within 100 yards of the Cowpens bow – exceptionally dangerous and aggressive. Adm Locklear attributed some of this behavior to Chinese inexperience – but it ain't It's specifically a series of challenges to establish China as in charge of nearby waters. One probelm is hardware the other is, the US Navy doesn’t acknowledge that China clearly wants not to be a partner is security with the US. The US Navy has an institutional bias in thinking that the US can train China to be nice and do the civil thing. US plans to put ten more ships in th Pacific – does that matter in an ocean that large? Maybe if two of them were aircraft carriers. What's similar with the Japanese pre-War is how Washington views China – as though Japan (now, China) could never manage to attack and win; cleave to the notion that China is a partner who's a little misunderstood – if we can just talk to the right people we can bring them around to seeing things our way.
China: Plans to Start Patrols in South China Sea Beijing has announced plans to start regular civilian patrols in the disputed South China Sea, Voice of America reported Jan. 22. A vessel based in the Paracel Islands will begin patrolling the waters of the South China Sea, site of territorial disputes between China and four members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations including Vietnam.
Wednesday 22 January 2014 / Hour 1, Block B: Arthur Waldron, Lauder Professor of International Relations at the University of Pennsylvania, in re: The International Consortium of Investigative Journalists finds 22,000 tax-haven bank accounts in American Samoa and the British Virgins: Xi's brother-in-law and one of Wen Jiabao's relatives have big accounts there. Used to be that Beijing could keep this a secret, but no more. This is on a scale unknown except in Arab princedoms. Five members or former members of the Central Committee have tax-haven bank accounts. The whole leadership cadre is seen to have their arms up to the elbows in pots of gold. The leadership fully lacks legitimacy, never having been voted in. Bo Xilai is in jail for he rest of human history: because he stole $3 mil in France or somewhere. No doubt lots of people in the system steal things; however, there are a lot of Chinese people who are profoundly antiregime – they connect dots on financial affairs and breach the firewall. The Bloomberg story on Xi's famil y wealthl Ties story on Wen's family; and Wanda Group buying the entire Central Committee. Police have been detaining anyone who discloses the wealth of he leadership. A joint leadership is difficult enough; a massive kleptocracy introduces not only rivalry amongst them selves, but the wealth gap between the millions of poor people and these massive thieves is jaw-dropping, Regime is terrified and doesn’t know what to do. Hours before the document dump, the trial of a human right s activist – the police thugs broke CNN cameras.
Wednesday 22 January 2014 / Hour 1, Block C: Dr. David M. Livingston, The Space Show, and Dr. Martin Elvis, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, in re: "Give us the telescopes and we'll find the asteroid mines!" Asteroid mining! When? How much? How many asteroids have a great deal of platinum? Maybe ten. BBC item - the headline gives the wrong impression, though the article is fair enough. "I want to stress that my paper does not mean that there is no commercial future for asteroid mining. It does mean that gold mines are rare, which shouldn't be too surprising. Not every mountain on Earth hides a fortune, and not every flying mountain in space will either."
The Elvis Equation – start with how many civilizations might be in the galaxy then pare the number down to meet successive requirement; do the same thing for asteroids, reach one in a thousand or two thousand. Dr Elvis told BBC News: "I want to stress that my paper does not mean that there is no commercial future for asteroid mining. It does mean that gold mines are rare, which shouldn't be too surprising. Not every mountain on Earth hides a fortune, and not every flying mountain in space will either." Despite the headlines I am actually bullish on asteroid mining, but also realistic. When NASA sends a spaceship to an asteroid and returns, costs a billion dollars; Japanese do it for $300 million.
Chelyabinsk meteorite allowed us to recalibrate number of house-size meteorites: more than thought, but fewer stadium-sized. M-type asteroids ("iron-rich") – 4% of what we've seen. Water in space is extremely valuable. Bigelow Industries bldg space stations out of inflatable materials. In five years, they could have 20 people in orbit.
"Give us the telescopes and we'll find the asteroid mines!"
Wednesday 22 January 2014 / Hour 1, Block D: Sajeeb Wazed, Awami League, in re: Hindu temple attacked in Bangladesh Bangladesh eyes greater access for readymade garments Attacks on Hindu families; houses burned down, villagers chased across the fields and barely escaped. In certain areas, some have a greater Hindu population, esp small; everybody knows who's who. Attackers have been identified as former oppo party and of Jamaat al-Islam, political partner of BNP; attempt to drive away the vote for the secular Awami League. During liberation Jamaat al-Islam sided with the Pakistanis, targeted Hindus. Recall the clothing factory that burned down with many inside. Bangladesh Commerce Minister complained that there's a mkt for Bangladeshi garments in the US and Canada, but in India, not: India sees itself as a competitor to Bangladeshi good, has kept of trade barriers. Trade 'twixt the two countries have mostly been foodstuff. Population of 150 mil people, less than 10% are Hindu.
Most Intolerant religion Dhaka: Idols of Hindu goddesses were destroyed when unidentified persons attacked a temple in southwestern Bangladesh on Saturday, the latest in a string of incidents against the minority community. The attackers ripped off the heads of idols of goddess Kali and Saraswati and threw them in the courtyard of the temple in Pirojpur district, Bdnews24 reported. The idols were found smashed and destroyed this morning, a devotee was quoted as saying by the media. A probe to find those responsible for the attack is already under way, said the police official A Khalek.
Hour Two
Wednesday 22 January 2014 / Hour 2, Block A: Andrew Collier, Managing Director of Orient Capital Research, in re: Chinese Investors Try Police to Recoup Funds; Customers Say Product Is in Default; Trouble in Shadow Lending In the latest sign of trouble in China's loosely regulated shadow-banking sector, angry bank and insurance customers who bought an investment product that they say has since failed appealed to authorities to help them recoup about one billion yuan ($167 million).
In three or four days we'll see if there'll be the first default ever [Mega Default in China Scheduled for January 31] in wealth management funds. There's $1.8 trillion of dodgy products; ROR to investors was three times what you could get by depositing in a bank account. Wealth mgt products are shadow banking; a lot of this stuff crawled out of the woodwork to try to make capital flow in more efficient ways – some is fuelling important projects. In the US, the debts were on the bank balance sheet, so lending structure collapsed; in China, it’s all caveat emptor. We lack real data, can see interest rat for interbank lending mkt. The real issue is the 85% of bank assets lent to bad projects. Some people who lent money badly are complaining to the cops. We're examining this now because they created "wet lending."
Wednesday 22 January 2014 / Hour 2, Block B: Bob Collins, former senior Pentagon analyst now based in South Korea, in re: National Defense Commission of North Korea: suggest that all the negative exchanges cease and, rather, both sides be nice. Goal: to create a provocation. If South Korea accepted, it'd give the North many ore option; if it doesn’t, can be used as a basis for provocations. Meanwhile, Kennth Bae, held in DPRK for more than a year, is paraded in front of cameras and begs Washington for help; DC will send an envoy . . . As important visitors show up, give big face to the DPRK leaders. A gimmick to gain domestic poplar support and show the "power" of the North's leader. Gutting of security apparatus; the Chief Political Commissar looks like the new boss. Expect: recidivism – using the mil arm to provoke responses from ROC and the US. Kim Jong-eun's billion dollars were in the bank of Shanghai; Jang (now dead) had been manipulating the account for his own benefit; then the bank shut down the account and wouldn’t le a dime out. This caused a huge problem, led to Uncle Jang's death.
Wednesday 22 January 2014 / Hour 2, Block C: Gardiner Harris, NYT, in re: India’s Efforts to Aid Poor Worry Drug Makers The government has threatened to allow production of less costly versions of a breast cancer treatment, a move the pharmaceutical industry says threatens the system for discovering cures. If you ignore patents, you decrease incentives to develop the next drug. Glaxo Smith Kline just invested another billion dollars in India(?). The imbecile head of Bayer said to Bloomberg, "We didn’t develop this drug for Indians; we developed it for Americans, who can pay for it." Indians see tha and shrug, think, Nuts, we'll just take and use your drug. In the patent system, "If you don’t practice your art [utilize it]" then countries can take it from you. Somebody was able to get a patent on a peanut butter and jelly sandwich; the US patent system is broken. because a woman in India who can afford Perceptin (a breast-cancer drug), she prays to Krishna and Rama.
Stampede at Viewing of Dead Spiritual Leader Kills 18 in India Hundreds were packed into narrow lanes trying to get a glimpse of the body of the spiritual leader Syedna Mohammad Burhanuddin when the stampede occurred.
Wednesday 22 January 2014 / Hour 2, Block D: Joseph Sternberg, WSJ Asia editorial board, in re: Chinese Investors Turn to Police In a sign of trouble in China's shadow-banking sector, angry customers of banks and insurers turned to authorities to recoup money in an investment product they say has defaulted. WSJ and Heritage annual survey: Hong Kong is the free-est market – except for Filapina maids, who are often viciously abused. The many regulations are merely on paper. Henry Blodget at Davos: a dinner possibly :PM Abe is asked, will there be war between Japan and China? Abe says, could, possibly be. The Chinese man starts a rant about how he wants a necessary war between China and Japan. Hong Kong has noticed how much it depends on Major Japanese investment – very good economic relations and very very poor geopolitical relations. The Chinese mil operates in one mind-set, the economics minister operate in another. The system is so opaque, no one knows [who's on first]. A government in disarray.
Someone Just Said Something about the Japan-China Conflict that Scared the Crap Out of Everyone I went to one of those fancy private dinners last night in Davos, Switzerland. Like most of the events here at the 2014 World Economic Forum, the dinner was conducted under what are known as "Chatham House Rules," which means that I can't tell you who was there. I can tell you what was said, though. And one thing that was said rattled a lot of people at the table. During the dinner, the hosts passed a microphone around the table and asked guests to speak briefly about something that they thought would interest the group. One of the guests, an influential Chinese professional, talked about the simmering conflict between China and Japan over a group of tiny islands in the Pacific.
China and Japan, you may recall, each claim ownership of these islands, which are little more than a handful of uninhabited rocks between Japan and Taiwan. Recently, the Japan-China tension around the islands has increased, and has led many analysts, including Ian Bremmer of the Eurasia Group, to worry aloud about the potential for a military conflict.
The Chinese professional at dinner last night did not seem so much worried about a military conflict as convinced that one was inevitable. And not because of any strategic value of the islands themselves (they're basically worthless), but because China and Japan increasingly hate each other.
The Chinese professional mentioned the islands in the context of the recent visit by Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to the Yasukuni Shrine in Tokyo. The Yasukuni Shrine is a Shinto shrine where Japanese killed in Japan's many military conflicts over the centuries are memorialized — including the Japanese leaders responsible for the attacks and atrocities Japan perpetrated in World War 2. A modern-day Japanese leader visiting the Yasukuni Shrine is highly controversial, because it is viewed by Japan's former (and current) enemies as an act of honoring war criminals.
That's certainly the way the Chinese professional at the dinner viewed it. He used the words "honoring war criminals," to describe Abe's visit to the shrine. And, with contained but obvious anger, he declared this decision "crazy."
He then explained that the general sense in China is that China and Japan have never really settled their World War 2 conflict. Japan and America settled their conflict, he explained, and as a result, the fighting stopped. But China and Japan have never really put the war behind them.
The Chinese professional acknowledged that if China asserted control over the disputed islands by attacking Japan, America would have to stand with Japan. And he acknowledged that China did not want to provoke America.
But then he said that many in China believe that China can accomplish its goals — smacking down Japan, demonstrating its military superiority in the region, and establishing full control over the symbolic islands — with a surgical invasion. In other words, by sending troops onto the islands and planting the flag. . . . [more]
Hour Three
Wednesday 22 January 2014 / Hour 3, Block A: James Taranto, WSJ, in re: Girl-grows-up story becomes a political hot potato. Wayne Slater of Dallas Morning News says there's a big part of the story that's not accurate.
These Boots Are Made for Harvard Feminist mythology and the Wendy Davis tale. "It’s those stories – your stories – that drive my campaign. But Greg Abbott and his allies don’t want to hear them. They don’t have anything to offer Texans who find themselves in the same difficult situation I was in when I was young. They would slam the doors I walked through and pull up the ladders I was lucky to be able to climb." . . . She says she got through Texas Christian University by scholarships and financial aid; however, her then-husband cleared out his 401K to put her through Harvard – and she left the day after he made the final payment to Harvard. Slate had a funny piece on Davis's fairy tale.
In Defense of West Virginia There's more to mining than the shaft.
Wednesday 22 January 2014 / Hour 3, Block B: Michael Tomasky, The Daily Beast, in re: How Bad Does the GOP Need Chris Christie? Really Bad. Without the scandal-engulfed New Jersey governor, Republicans don’t have a candidate who could even come close to the votes needed to win the presidency in 2016.
Well, well, well, today is an interesting day: it’s Chris Christie’s re-inauguration day. It was just two weeks ago, a little more, that this was going to be a day of shimmering triumph. I was just reading this CNN dispatch, from January 6, that talks about how the governor is planning on starting his day at a Black church (whose pastor presided over Whitney Houston’s funeral) and ending it at Ellis Island. There’s nary a word in it about bridges and subpoenas. Back then, today was supposed to be the official beginning of the slow and ineluctable ascent to the White House. He didn’t have to do or prove anything in this putative second term. Lose a little weight, maybe. But otherwise, he . . .
Wednesday 22 January 2014 / Hour 3, Block C: Stephen F Cohen, NYU & Princeton Russian Studies prof Emeritus; author, Soviet Fates & Lost Alternatives, in re: Pres Obama called Pres Putin today. Chechen widows launching suicide attacks against the Olympics in Sochi. Syrian civil war, Suspect nuke program in Iran. The presenting heat now is Kiyev, Ukraine, the Near-Abroad. Leader is Vitaly Klitchko, a heavyweight world-champ boxer, also a German citizen, running for the presidency of Ukraine: "We must resist the police." Canada and others about to put sanctions on Ukraine – where Ukraine is a vital decision for Putin as he cannot abandon it. A month ago, Ukraine had o decide between an offer from the EU and a big package from Russia; the former was to small and the Ukraine economy is in trouble, so the Russian offer was accepted. Now, street demonstrations by what's called the ultranationalists. Sen McCain went to Kiyyev to urge rebellion, as did Nuland from the State Department. Yanokovich has struck back with minimum force. West threatens sanctions even though Westerners have supported the violence. There's a lot of oppo in DC to Obama collaborating with Putin. If Putin hadn’t bailed out Ukraine there would have been millions destitute in Ukraine for many years. The West is metaphorically playing with fire that it doesn’t understand at all. Westerners speaking of Putin at Sochi: "He's staked everything on it; if he succeeds, he'll be in good shape, but if he fails, we like it because we hate Putin." Gen Dempsey: We must continue the fight vs terrorism irrespective of political alliances. Ukraine police storm Kiev protester barricades, killing 5
Obama and Putin talk Sochi security, Syria President Barack Obama spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin Tuesday amid safety concerns about the upcoming Olympic games in ...
Wednesday 22 January 2014 / Hour 3, Block D: Stephen F Cohen, NYU & Princeton Russian Studies prof Emeritus; author, Soviet Fates & Lost Alternatives, in re: Berlin and Moscow now have years of cooperation. Littoral Europe has tended to cleave to the US, while the rest of the Eurasian landmass looks to Berlin and Moscow. Vitaly Kitchko has been promoted by Germany – is in a sense the German candidate. There 's a chance at present fo the US and Russia to work together anent Syria, Iran, the Sochi Olympics. Ideally, Merkel would encourage Obama to pursue that, and Putin to accept. The wavering is coming from Washington. Japan: In an alliance, here's a rider and a donkey. Goethe: A leader is an anvil or a hammer.
Kiev protests turn deadly. A line crossed in Ukraine? (+video) Violence has been taboo in recent Ukrainian political upheavals, including the Orange Revolution. But last night's deaths amid clashes in Kiev ... Ukraine police storm Kiev protester barricades, killing 5 Kiev mass riots timeline
Hour Four
Wednesday 22 January 2014 / Hour 4, Block A: John Tamny, Forbes.com, in re: Janet Yellen brings to the Fed all the fallacious economic mysticism that made Ben Bernanke's failure at the Fed easy to predict. Still, there's a bullish case for her unwittingly having a successful Fed tenure. It's rooted in the culture of a Fed that elevates consensus among voting members above all else. A Bullish Case for Janet Yellen, Our Confused New Fed Chairman As is well known now, Janet Yellen was confirmed last Monday as Fed Chairman. On its face, this should concern those who desire economic growth.
Wednesday 22 January 2014 / Hour 4, Block B: Jed Babbin, American Spectator, in re: Obama ‘Reforms’ the NSA | The American Spectator LOOSE CANONS OBAMA ‘REFORMS’ THE NSA Sifting through today's hogwash. You might think that in the sixth year of his presidency, Barack Obama would no longer be blaming George Bush for everything that is wrong in the world. And you’d be wrong, as he proved in another tiresome speech this morning.
For about fifty minutes, Obama droned on, telling us how he . . .
Wednesday 22 January 2014 / Hour 4, Block C: Lee Smith, Weekly Standard and author, in re: Saad Hariri’s ‘Moderate Awakening’ An exclusive interview with Lebanon’s former prime minister on the eve of the trial against the four Hezbollah members who murdered his father. [In den Haag] Almost nine years after the February 14, 2005 murder of Lebanon’s former prime minister Rafik Hariri in a car bomb explosion in central Beirut that killed 22 others and wounded more than 200, the Special Tribunal for Lebanon has come to fruition. Thursday morning the STL opened its trial against four suspects named in the case, all of them Hezbollah members, including the alleged ringleader, Mustafa Badreddine, cousin and brother-in-law of the notorious Imad Mughniyeh, the infamous Hezbollah commander assassinated in 2008 who is believed to be responsible for dozens of terrorist acts, including the 1983 bombing of the U.S. embassy in Lebanon . . . [more]
Wednesday 22 January 2014 / Hour 4, Block D: Robert Zimmerman, behindtheblack.com, in re: The European Space Agency has now released its first cost estimates for upgrading and replacing its Ariane 5 rocket. Europe needs to find about 1 billion euros ($1.35 billion) to complete development of an upgrade to its current Ariane 5 heavy-lift rocket, which would fly in 2018 and be capable of lifting satellites weighing 11,000 kilograms into geostationary transfer orbit, European Space Agency Director General Jean-Jacques Dordain said Jan. 17. The Ariane 5 upgrade, called Ariane 5 ME, will be on the table for ESA governments to decide, alongside the new Ariane 6 rocket, at a meeting scheduled for December in Luxembourg. In a press briefing in Paris, Dordain said it is too early to say how much Ariane 6 will cost to develop. Government and industry estimates have ranged between 3 billion and 4 billion euros, with an inaugural flight in 2021. As Doug Messier notes in his worthwhile analysis of these numbers, “Europe is in deep trouble.” From a customer’s perspective, these new rockets won’t fly (pun intended). The cost is too high and the development time too long. By the time they get both Ariane 5 and Ariane 6 ready for launch they will be obsolete and overpriced, when compared to the rocket’s that will already be available from their competitors.
SpaceX successfully tested the parachute system on its Dragon capsule on Friday.
And in a competing test, NASA successfully tested Orion’s parachute system the day before.
Both systems plan test flights later this year to prove the safety of the spacecraft.
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