The John Batchelor Show

Wednesday 23 January 2019

Air Date: 
January 23, 2019

Co-host: Gordon Chang, Daily Beast
Hour One
Wednesday 23 January 2019 / Hour 1, Block A:  Arthur Waldron, Lauder Professor of International Relations in the Department of History at the University of Pennsylvania, in re: Analysis of Chinese economy and the political structure that underlies it.  Multiple problems. Xi Jinping attended a high school that later converted into a university; consequently, is making decisions that redound to national disadvantage.  The Party demands that state-owned enterprises be massively supported financially, which of course continues to turn out badly economically.  The Party is disturbed to see that its measure of terror against the hitherto-compliant population is diminishing as citizens feel freer to circumvent and criticize the government.
Wednesday 23 January 2019 / Hour 1, Block B: Peter Huessy, director of Strategic Deterrent Studies, Mitchell Institute of the Air Force Association, in re:  Missile defense. Chinese hypersonic missiles go five to seven times the speed of sound. US may have none.   [US] missile defense review.  . . . Hypersonic glide vehicles.  Directed energy.
Wednesday 23 January 2019 / Hour 1, Block C:   Rick Fisher, Intl Strategy and Assessment Center; in re: PLA army is very much in the fight, incl against Taiwan, and by 2030s could be meeting American forces in South America, Africa, the Middle East. USAF report yesterday : PLA has multiple units of missile forces; in ten years has gone from testing ASAT missiles to dvpg multiple types and now deploying them. These could take down US sats in low- and medium-Earth orbits. US GPS satellites. US has tested its ability to intercept sats in low-Earth obit; no announcement that the US has deployed it.  Ergo, US immediately loses its satellites, cannot communicate even with itself.  US loses. 
    Intention to conquer Taiwan, then Japan, South East Asia, and thence South China Sea. After it arms Taiwan, it’ll project power worldwide, incl Africa, South America and Caribbean. Its goal is to be the main political force on the planet.  US is from three to eight years behind the Chinese.    
    US Air Force is just beginning to deploy the long-range anti-ship missile, which we’ve need for the last twenty years.
 Wednesday 23 January 2019 / Hour 1, Block D: Gordon Chang, in re:  frnt page of FT, from Davos: VP Wang lectured the audience on what’s wrong with the world. IMF projects lowered world economy (excluding the US) – Davos. (“Our doddering, claret-sipping bureaucrats.“)
Meanwhile, the Chinese economy is probably retracting now; it surely won’t grow in 2019 except in the minds of Wang and other bureaucrats. He’s too hold to succeed Xi (which Xi planned).  Wang: “Unilateralism protectionism, and populism” are the problems—id est, President Trump is the problem. They’re afraid of him. 
Trump’s skill is negotiating in the Manhattan property market. “I win, you lose.”   Xi insists that eh SOEs eat up all profit, that CCP members sit on private boards, insist that China 2025is free trade when, in fact, it’s protectionism. Xi has shocked Chinese leadership and lost the confidence of many.  Chinese don't believe in win-win; rather, in win-lose (same as Americans). 
Hour Two
Wednesday 23 January 2019 / Hour 2, Block A:  Charles Burton, professor at Brock University, in re:   The latest on Huawei and Meng Wanzhou, who was offering 5G to everyone; but Huawei turns out not to be what it seemed. Ms Meng is charged with having commited major fraud, trading with Iran in violation of sanctions. Chinese attempt to undermine all communications on the planet. 
Canadian amb to China held press conference only to Chinese media. Gave legal advice on how China shd deal with the case; said that she probably would not be prosecuted, but if she were extradited, it would not be happy.
     1. Trump’s comments that he could use this arrest in trade negotiations with China.  Since her offenses took place in Hong Kong . . .    3. Suggested that China had not signed on to the sanctions (inaccurate!).
     Is John McCallum representing Canadian governmental policy?  Not yet clear.   Canadian popular opinion: that this constitutes harassment of Huawei. If she reached US justice, then she might explain in detail what Huawei is up to, which would be helpful to the US.
     Ms Meng carries a Hong Kong passport, plus six others: 3 PRC, and four HK passports. Also has a green Chinese passport with special privileges at borders, close to being diplomatic papers. She did not disclose this latter, eighth passport on her arrest.  Suggests that Huawei is a function of Chinese security and military.
On 23 January 2019, John McCallum held a press conference only for Chinese media in which he suggested three reasons why Meng Wanzhou would not be extradited to the United States, although if she were, it would not go well for her. (“Canada's ambassador to China says Meng has strong defence to fight extradition.”)
 He enumerated three reasons that China might use to defend Meng, which either represents Canadian policy or, if it’s merely his personal thoughts, constitutes a remarkable breach of diplomatic protocol.
Wednesday 23 January 2019 / Hour 2, Block B:  Tara O, adjunct Fellow at the Pacific Forum and Fellow at the Institute for Corean-American Studies, in re:   The undistinguished dictator of the failed state of North Korea. March 1 , 1919, was the date of a resistance movement by Koreans against Japan, which later colonized Korea.  This is the centenary.  Kim Jong-il didn’t show up for two previous appointments; now he may appear on March 1.  Republic of Korea emerged on August 15, 1948.  Kim ignores South Korea, reverts to a date when nationhood was announced in China.  If you're Moon Jae-in and your goal is to unify the Koreas hang democracy, you’ll look for a date shared by the North and South. Note that his supporters not only celebrate Kim but threaten South Korean pro-democracy demonstrations.
Wednesday 23 January 2019 / Hour 2, Block C:  Monica Crowley, London Institute for Policy Studies and The Washington Times, in re: Mrs Pelosi refuses to bring her decision to disinvite the president to deliver a State of the Union report from the House of Representatives.  Today the president wrote to accept her original invitation.  I think she should deliver the address from the border – not a rally, a straight-up speech. “We do capitalism.” The [media] against Trump are so brutal and relentless that they refuse even to acknowledge the good things he’s accomplished.  . . . The Chinese Communist Party has just joined the Resistance! The Soviet Union failed under policies now being advanced by members of the US Congress. . . . Obama was turning us into Europe – which is now failing to grow. Trump cut through all that , which is why we grew at nearly 4% in 2018, and will probably grow at 3% in 2019. Soviet-style command economy.  I want to speak to the House of Representatives: “Have you read history? Do you know anything about the Soviet Union?”  The newbies consider inequality to be immoral – but they haven’t learned that the only way to enforce across-the-board equality is to have a police state. 
Wednesday 23 January 2019 / Hour 2, Block D: Monica Crowley, London Institute for Policy Studies, and The Washington Times, in re: Kamala Harris and Democratic candidates for 2020. She’s very accomplished, has no charisma.
Hour Three
Wednesday 23 January 2019 / Hour 3, Block A:  Elin Suleymanov, Ambassador of the Republic of Azerbaijan to Washington; in re: Soviet massacre of unarmed civilians in Baku, January 20.
Wednesday 23 January 2019 / Hour 3, Block B: Ledeen, FDD: Global pizza bake-off in Naples, where it began; in first week of July.  Use extra-virgin olive oil, special tomatoes, special cheese: fiore di latte, which is cow’s milk. The Margarita pizza was named after the Queen of Naples.  Six different schools of pizza.  Regional competitions worldwide, incl Japan, Brazil, two in the US, one in Europe, one in Australia. Note pizza version of the Roman spaghetti dish: salty chees & freshly-ground black pepper. 
Wednesday 23 January 2019 / Hour 3, Block C: Gregory R. Copley; president, The International Strategic Studies Association;  in re:
Wednesday 23 January 2019 / Hour 3, Block D:  Gregory R. Copley; president, The International Strategic Studies Association;  in re:
Hour Four
Wednesday 23 January 2019 / Hour 4, Block A: Potsdam: The End of World War II and the Remaking of Europe, by Michael Neiberg (1/8)
Wednesday 23 January 2019 / Hour 4, Block B: Potsdam: The End of World War II and the Remaking of Europe, by Michael Neiberg (2/8)
Wednesday 23 January 2019 / Hour 4, Block C: Potsdam: The End of World War II and the Remaking of Europe, by Michael Neiberg (3/8)
Wednesday 23 January 2019 / Hour 4, Block D: Potsdam: The End of World War II and the Remaking of Europe, by Michael Neiberg (4/8)