Photo, left: Kansas spring - prairie cherry blossoms, March 2015. Photo by Gene Countryman, consummate Kansan.
 
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
 
Co-hosts:  Gordon Chang, Forbes.com. Dr. David M. Livingston, The Space Show.
Hour One
Wednesday  25 March 2015   / Hour 1, Block A: Arthur Waldron, Lauder Professor of International Relations at the University of Pennsylvania, in re: Note the emigration rate from Singapore, second-highest of any country in the world (first is East Timor).  Also, because it’s an authoritarian regime, a lot of the urban planning has been overdone, also a lot of Singapore's heritage is destroyed. Lee Kwan Yes did not at all institutionalize democracy – his son is his successor. Extremely hard on the rather mousy democratic opposition. One of my closest friends is a Singaporean, a man of integrity and high in the govt; he said once, "Things will have to change."  . . .  It's difficult for authoritarian regimes to reform. The moment of change is usu awaited too long.  It’s a lovely city; the population is now greatly more educated and not tolerant of a continuing nanny state. The second generation of the PAP aren’t leaders, like Lee Kwan Yew, but more bureaucrat. However, some of them are remarkably decent fellows.  Of course, the PAP has rigged every single election for decades. Official salaries are so high that there's not much impetus for corruption; but Singapore is not necessarily a stable state.  JB: In the early 1900s, Kisangani in the then-Belgian Congo, was seen as an elegant harbinger of globalization.  AW: In Singapore, recall that there's dynamite right under the surface.  . .  . They don’t each Malay, don’t speak it any ore, Stupidest-possible policy.
Lee Kuan Yew: The Perfect Little Police State’s Dark Future Lee Kuan Yew, who died Monday at 91, created a model authoritarian society in Singapore—but a faltering economy and a younger generation craving change are two reasons it won’t last.  With unshakable determination and a frightening ruthlessness, Lee Kuan Yew created a model society, busy but also neat and efficient, in many ways the Switzerland of Asia. Few modern leaders have demanded such thorough control over those they ruled, especially in a nominally democratic state. Singapore, in short, is the world’s best argument for authoritarianism.
Yet can Singapore survive in its present state? There are two reasons to suggest it cannot. First, the People’s Action Party, the political organization Lee created, looks like it will have to share power soon. It has ruled continuously since even before independence in 1965, and in its early years he freely wielded a political hatchet. Until 1981, the party captured every seat in every election for Parliament, a testament to the obsessiveness of Lee, who stepped down as prime minister at the height of his power in 1990 and died Monday at 91. Since then, the PAP has remained in control. It now holds 80 of 87 elected seats in the unicameral legislature.
The party is not as popular as its seat total suggests, however. In the last general parliamentary election, in May 2011, it garnered 60.1 percent of the popular vote. Moreover, its percentage of the total has declined over time. The erosion should be evident in the next general parliamentary contest, scheduled for 2016, especially if the economy continues to wind down.
Economic problems are becoming obvious. The country is entering a period of deflation—February was the fourth straight month the consumer price index was in negative territory—and growth continues to disappoint, consistently underperforming forecasts. With export markets in Asia slumping, analysts point to a deteriorating environment this year, and there is little to suggest a reversal of adverse trends. That’s the brush for a political fire.
But the PAP is troubled by something far more important than a stalling economy or anger over income inequality and high housing prices. Even while Lee was alive, there was a sense the city-state had to move beyond one-party rule. And the death of the great man will only strengthen this feeling. The principal problem for the PAP is not so much the passing of Lee but the passing of generations. Older Singaporeans, whatever they may feel about their former leader, know of his trials and triumphs. Younger ones, of course, have far less knowledge or gratitude. “The ones under 30, who’ve just grown up in stability and growth year by year, I think they think that I’m selling them a line just to make them work harder but they are wrong,” Lee told UCLA’s Tom Plate and USC’s Jeffrey Cole in October 2007. “The problem is they don’t believe. They think I’m wrong.”  Relentless modernization, one of Lee’s great legacies, and . . . [more]
Wednesday  25 March 2015   / Hour 1, Block B: Julia Famularo, research affiliate at Project 2049 Institute, in re: In Tibet,  under the unelected tyrants of Beijing - A 10,00 RMB fine for not installing a camera on your own premises in order to let the government monitor activities in your own place.  it didn’t come even to Orwell that you’d have to install a camera, yourself, for the sinister espionage. It will spread throughout Tibet and perhaps throughout China. It’s no longer enough to rat on your neighbors; now you have to spy on yourself.  This is put on the shoulders of "splittists" – the insane word invented by Beijing to refer to people so fed up they want to separate.  Extremely paranoid government. This is only one of its mad actions throughout ethnic Tibet and Xinjiang.  When I first lived in Lhasa about a decade ago there were far fewer cameras or troops on the street. For a lot of people, it’s not worth the risk of being condemned and arrested for not policing oneself.   Some Tibetans are calling on the Olympic Committee not to award the Olympics to Beijing. Beigjing calles this "laughable."  Good Lord. 
High Peaks Pure Earth has translated an official notice issued by the police in Gyur-me Township (Ch: Jimai) in Darlag (Ch: Dari) County, Golog Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture in eastern Tibet (Amdo). The notice was issued on December 24, 2014.  The notice about businesses and households having to install cameras to monitor themselves is being shared by Tibetans on social media and mobile phone apps such as WeChat. It is also being noted by social media users that businesses such as restaurants, shops and hotels have to pay a fine of RMB 10,000 if they refuse to install video cameras.
China state paper attacks Tibet groups' Olympic protest  Tibetan groups calling on the IOC to reject Beijing's bid for the 2022 Winter Games are out of touch with the Himalayan region and their campaign is "doomed to failure," a Chinese state newspaper said Saturday. In an editorial, the Global Times accused the organizations of pandering to foreign audiences and said their accusations of rights abuses would "only cause laughter" among International Olympic Committee officials responsible for evaluating Beijing's bid.
"They feel excited in slapping Tibet and China. The repeated protests also fit certain needs of Western societies, which will win them some resources for survival in the West," the editorial said.  "They are doomed to fail," concluded the paper, a nationalistic tabloid published by the ruling Communist Party publication People's Daily. A coalition of more than 175 Tibet organizations on Thursday said they sent a report to IOC President Thomas Bach underlining that the 2008 Summer Games in Beijing failed to improve human rights in China. The 12-page report said repression in Tibet is "currently at an all-time high" and warned that giving the Olympics to China again would be "making the same mistake twice." Beijing is competing against Almaty, Kazakhstan, for the right to host the . . .
Wednesday  25 March 2015   / Hour 1, Block C: Douglas Messier, 21stcenturycomm, in re:  Criticism of Mars One. [Mars One is a non-profit organization based in the Netherlands that has put forward plans to land the first humans onto Mars and establish a permanent human colony there by 2027. Wikipedia]   . . .  I'd be surprised if they launched by 2020; no technology to do this mission; I agree and NASA agrees. Dunno where they’ll get he money to do this; seemed  half-baked from the beginning.  DL: My entire audience does not support he mission; believes that going to Mars is far more difficult and costly than Mars One allows.  Launcher One plus Spaceship Two. Jobs fair.  Air Force will do a test this year.  Tests to provide global Internet;  Greg Wyler, hundreds of satellites.  Fireflies Systems. Is Virgin Galactic show biz or does it grind it out to succeed?
Wednesday  25 March 2015   / Hour 1, Block D:  Bill Roggio, Long War Journal and FDD, in re: Article 22; Bowe Bergdahl, exchanged for five senior Taliban killers who'd been closely tied to al Qaeda,  now loose, is charged with desertion.  Could be jailed for decades. Has served some hard time already for whatever stupid reason he wandered off post.  May be sentenced to time served plus dishonorable discharge.  Susan Rice once said, "He served honorably."  [Rubbish.] US Air Fore has launched airstrikes on ISIS as it’s being attacked by Iranians.  Iraq's resent PM "has authorized US participation so security forces can move on to Anbar and Mosul.'  The US military now functions in support of Teheran en Dempsey said more than 2/3 of the forces fighting in Tikrit are loyal to Suleimani, of the al Quds Force.   US military s operating as the air arm of Suleimani.  D'ya suppose this may connect to Pres Obama's discussions with Iran on the P5+1?  Unhh . .  .  Now the US is launching air strikes in Yemen, as are Saudi plus nine other states.  The president is on a boat fleeing.  Collapse of comity in the Middle East for at least a generation.
Obama Says No U.S. Troop Drawdown in Afghanistan before 2016  About 9,800 military personnel will remain in Afghanistan through this year. Obama said ... Former Obama ambassadors against a full Afghan troop withdrawal in 2016.   Mombasa.
Hour Two
Wednesday  25 March 2015   / Hour 2, Block A: Alan Tonelson, independent economic policy analyst who blogs at RealityChek and tweets at @AlanTonelson, in re:  China: their currency has long been undervalued because it's so long depended on export; now, China is trying to make the yuan stronger because so much capital is fleeing China as the rich park their [ill-gotten] funds overseas.  Odd deeds; a year ago, we couldn’t have imagined some of these actions. Easy to see why Washington policymakers would be confused by this: China's growth is slowing and it depends on export now more than ever.  However, US policymakers manage to miss each trend . . .  The US govt is in hock to China, which owns vast amounts of Treasurys. Beijing has been selling them, and foreign currency; last year reserves fell $150 bil. Still selling at a fast clip to defend the RMB.   On the other hand, a global mkt of $140 trillion.  Non-Chinese dollar-buyers grow ever more enthusiastic abt buying greenbacks as the dollar strengthens – leaving China in not quite as strong a relation.  AIIB: $40-50 bil; however, every US ally has ignored Washington's strong objections and joined the AIIB.  Sharp distinction between Gordon Chang and the AIIB – Gordon says, "It's just a show bank." 
Wednesday  25 March 2015   / Hour 2, Block B: Pater Navarro, professor at the University of California, Irvine, and producer of documentary Death by China, in re: Most of what China is selling to the rest of the world was stolen fro either the US or Russia. Now, drones and missile defense; the premier such in the word is Russian – which China reverse-engineered. Stole the missiles from the US using cyberwarfare, ditto the jets. Every drone is American design down tt he curl in the wings.  They sell the weapons to he rest of he world, and in economies of scale can make tem cheaper for themselves – scares the heqq out of me.  US has forward bases in Asia, and aircraft carriers with 5,00 souls per carrier. China working mightily to push US ou of bases and carriers, esp with submarines. Getting he quietest subs on the mkt; have committed to selling China the best. Also our dear friends the Germans are selling eqpt to make the propellers virtually silent – weapons tech puts Vietnam, Japan , Philippines, all of Asia, in much danger from China.   When the Challenger went down and crashed, most at work went to China which in 20 years blt up a huge space complex even as American space is largely grounded. Amazing economies of scale so China is the cheapest purveyor in the world. It'll sell widely, and each of the buyers's neighbors will also want to buy.  China laughs all the way to the bank.   http://rt.com/news/243285-china-weapons-export-us/
 
Wednesday  25 March 2015   / Hour 2, Block C:  Abheek Bhattacharya, Heard on the Street WSJ in Hong Kong, in re:  1.  Now that it's official that India's economy will grow faster than China's sometime in the next couple of years, it's worth seeing what this means for various markets worldwide. I looked at one key market -- oil -- to figure whether or not a rising India can take over the baton from China.  The short answer: no. The long answer boils down to how unswerving India's investment in infrastructure will be, plus some other counterintuitive impacts of growth.   2.  However boring it seems, financial accounting matters. This Chinese car-rental firm could become another case study. Singapore-listed Noble Group already is: Asia's largest commodities trading house has come under the scanner for its aggressive interpretation of accounting rules.    3.   China's largest conglomerate, Citic. will keep value trapped in its complex structure, and the world's biggest pure iron-ore miner has big cash problems coming up. It’s been buying a lot recently. Injected most of its assets into one [filial]; this entire chunk spans eh entire range of he Chinese economy – incl iron roe, property, energy, which don’t make a lot of money these days.. Desperately entering even water purification and theme-park ventures – conglomerate is a good investment, at last partly because no one person can manage all this. Locking up value; a bad trend. .  CNOOC and ______.   Plus, this small Japanese carmaker is a great play on the two biggest trends in global markets: the rising dollar and falling oil. can’t have a strong state I there's less control over the conglomerate. Adam Smith: Competition, trade, transparency – esp unlocking the private sector – is the road to wealth.  . . .  The oil bull: rise of emerging economies that consume so much oil; in fact, it’s dwindling a bit; need a new oil bull.  India wd become the new China only if it launched into a decades-long fling of expansion, real-estate bubble, breakneck industrial growth, central-command building of capacity – we know that doesn’t work. 
The Mundell International University of Entrepreneurship
Wednesday  25 March 2015   / Hour 2, Block D:  Gina Chon, FT , in re:  cybersecurity. The hack of register.com: manages website addresses for millions of small businesses owned by web.com, which is publicly traded, also owns NetworkSolutions.  If China had access, cd conceivably shut down a lot of addresses, redirect traffic to a propaganda site, disrupt bz.  In 2013, NetworkSolutions was hacked, which blew up Linked In for a moment.  "The Chinese defense ministry declined to comment."  Given the tactics f the hackers, can't mitigate against every sigle breach; omitted cyber___ from lattest annual report. Hedging bets.   Once you’re breached do you have to report it to Congress?  Not yet; so far no fed standards.  Chinese have been inside ______'s system for up to three years and there's no way to get them out. PLA wants to be sure it can invade computers whenever it needs to during war. It’s relentless.
Hour Three
Wednesday  25 March 2015   / Hour 3, Block A:  Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor; in re: Cruz    He's been a relentless scourge of the Left and, frequently, of the leadership of his own party. This has made him a hated figure, not just in the Democratic cloakroom and the media, but also for elements within his own party’s establishment. Often, the criticisms made of Cruz are unfair at best, and completely unhinged at worst. The legitimate critique is that he has shown more interest in rhetorical flourish and tactical maximalism than prudent strategy and policy entrepreneurship.  http://www.nationalreview.com/article/415904/what-ted-can-do-editors
Jeb Bush  http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/25/us/politics/jeb-bush-returns-to-the-washington-fund-raising-well.html?rref=homepage&module=Ribbon&version=origin&region=Header&action=click&contentCollection=Home%20Page&pgtype=article
Although not yet an official presidential candidate, Mr. Bush has had at least seven private fundraisers and meet-and-greets in the Washington area, raising more than $1.3 million for his political action committee in a single day last month, and he's scheduled another one in April. His success is hardly surprising: For more than two decades, Washington has provided Mr. Bush, the son and brother of former presidents, with financial and political support
Wednesday  25 March 2015   / Hour 3, Block B:  Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor; in re: Obama and the War  http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/25/world/asia/ashraf-ghani-of-afghanistan-wants-us-troops-to-stay-longer.html?rref=homepage&module=Ribbon&version=origin&region=Header&action=click&contentCollection=Home%20Page&pgtype=article
Mr. Obama on Tuesday announced that he would leave 9,800 American troops in Afghanistan until at least the end of the year. The announcement came after a daylong White House meeting with President Ashraf Ghani of Afghanistan. The two men said the decision was a necessary response to the expected springtime resurgence of Taliban aggression and the need to give more training to the struggling Afghan security forces.
Netanyahu and the Democrats.  Rebukes from White House Risk Buoying Netanyahu   Tensions between Israel and the United States have soared, and even some who mainly blame Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for antagonizing President Obama over the last six years now see the scales flipped.
Wednesday  25 March 2015   / Hour 3, Block C: Aaron Klein, Investigative Radio, KleinOnline and Salem Radio Network, in re: http://www.timesofisrael.com/officials-white-house-was-part-of-bid-to-oust-netanyahu/
Wednesday  25 March 2015   / Hour 3, Block D:   Robert Zimmerman, behindtheblack.com, in re: Curiosity finds nitrates on Martian surface  Using data from Curiosity scientists have for the first time identified nitrates, also called fixed nitrogen, on the Martian surface. There is no evidence to suggest that the fixed nitrogen molecules found by the team were created by life. The surface of Mars is inhospitable for known forms of life. Instead, the team thinks the nitrates are ancient, and likely came from non-biological processes like meteorite impacts and lightning in Mars’ distant past.
Features resembling dry riverbeds and the discovery of minerals that form only in the presence of liquid water suggest that Mars was more hospitable in the remote past. The Curiosity team has found evidence that other ingredients needed for life, such as liquid water and organic matter, were present on Mars at the Curiosity site in Gale Crater billions of years ago. The data also suggest that these nitrates are widespread on the Martian surface.
The most important aspect of this discovery to me is not so much that it suggests the faint possibility of past life on Mars but that it makes Mars a more hospitable place for life in the future. Nitrates are essentially fertilizer, and for Mars to have this material in the soil already means it will be easier to figure out how to grow crops there.
Hour Four
Wednesday  25 March 2015   / Hour 4, Block A: The Third Horseman: Climate Change and the Great Famine of the 14th Century, by William Rosen (1 of 4)
Wednesday  25 March 2015   / Hour 4, Block B: The Third Horseman: Climate Change and the Great Famine of the 14th Century, by William Rosen (2 of 4)
Wednesday  25 March 2015   / Hour 4, Block C: The Third Horseman: Climate Change and the Great Famine of the 14th Century, by William Rosen (3 of 4)
Wednesday  25 March 2015   / Hour 4, Block D: The Third Horseman: Climate Change and the Great Famine of the 14th Century, by William Rosen (4 of 4)
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