The John Batchelor Show

Wednesday 25 May 2016

Air Date: 
May 25, 2016

Photo, left:  Advice on strategic offensive arms in the White House, 18 November 2010. To the left of Obama: Joe Biden and James Baker; right: Henry Kissinger, the deputy chief of the Joint Chiefs James Cartwright, and Madeleine Albright / Photo: ru.wikipedia.org
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
 
Co-hosts: Gordon Chang, Forbes.com & Daily Beast. Dr. David M. Livingston, The Space Show.
 
Hour One
Wednesday   25 May 2016 / Hour 1, Block A: Arthur Waldron, Lauder Professor of International Relations in the Department of History at the University of Pennsylvania, in re: Pres Obama's trip to Japan.
Wednesday   25 May 2016 / Hour 1, Block B:  Stephen Yates, chairman of the Idaho Republican Party, CEO of D.C. International Advisory, and former advisor to Vice President Dick Cheney, in re: http://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/22/china-pressures-taiwans-president-tsai-ing-wen-to-acknowledge-one-china.html   ;   http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201605240043.html
 
Wednesday   25 May 2016 / Hour 1, Block C:  Elbridge Colby, Robert M. Gates Senior Fellow at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), in re:  http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-ambiguity-on-taiwan-is-dangerous-1464022837
Wednesday   25 May 2016 / Hour 1, Block D:  Marcus Weisgerber, DefenseOne, in re; http://www.defenseone.com/management/2016/05/carter-expect-mil-mil-coope...
 
Hour Two
Wednesday   25 May 2016 / Hour 2, Block A:  Peter Navarro, professor at the University of California, Irvine, author of Crouching Tiger: What China's Militarism Means for the World, and maker of a documentary of the same name, in re: http://fortune.com/2016/05/20/ge-immelt-globalization/
Wednesday   25 May 2016 / Hour 2, Block B:  Rick Fisher, senior Fellow at the International Assessment and Strategy Center, in re: his Jane's article on the "Underwater Great Wall.”  . . .  The Underwater Great Wall — militarizing the entire South China Sea. China stole US designs for F22s, ergo have air dominance above theater (US can no longer control airspace over Taiwan) and the “stationary aircraft carriers”—the bogus islands China has been building for several years and now has heavily militarized, alarming the daylights out of Philippines and Vietnam, inter al.; and the quietest subs in the world, ordered en bloc by China, are German-made.  Artillery grid: can find a sub and attack it with a missile or a missile-borne depth charge; a structure copying the US idea of the 1960s.
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China proposes 'Underwater Great Wall' that could erode US, Russian submarine advantages
The China State Shipbuilding Corporation (CSSC) has proposed the construction of a network of ship and subsurface sensors that could significantly erode the undersea warfare advantage held by US and Russian submarines and contribute greatly to future Chinese ability to control the South China Sea (SCS).
At the 2016 Defence Services Asia exhibition in Kuala Lumpur, the China Electronic Technology Group Corporation offered a 'Reef Defense' system that may use many elements of the China State Shipbuilding Corporation's proposed 'Underwater Great Wall Project'. (Richard D Fisher via CETC)
Details of the network of sensors, called the 'Underwater Great Wall Project', were revealed in a CSSC booth at a public exhibition in China in late 2015. A translated copy of the descriptions was obtained by IHS Jane's  from a government official. The text was confirmed by a source from a second government on condition of anonymity.
While some elements of this network have been known for some time, CSSC is now in effect proposing an improved Chinese version of the Sound Surveillance System (SOSUS) that for a time gave the US a significant advantage in countering Soviet submarines during the Cold War. The system proposed by CSSC is likely being obtained by China's People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) but may also be offered for export.
CSSC says that, among other things, its objective is to provide customers with "a package solution in terms of underwater environment monitoring and collection, real-time location, tracing of surface and underwater targets, warning of seaquakes, tsunamis, and other disasters as well as marine scientific research".
The corporation says in the document that its "R&D and production bases in Beijing and Wuxi [have] the ability to support the whole industry chain covering fundamental research, key technology development, solution design, overall system integration, core equipment development, production, and operation service support".
The shipbuilding conglomerate says it has 10 series of products on offer that include systems relating to marine observation, oceanographic instrumentation, underwater robotics, and ship support.
Specific components of CSSC's surveillance system include surface ships, sonar systems, underwater security equipment, marine oil and gas exploration equipment, underwater unmanned equipment, and marine instrument electronic equipment.
CSSC also lists "networking links" that include surface ships [military or civilian], data processing centres, sonar arrays, sensor platforms, underwater cables, and anti-frogman systems.
Back in 2008 The Washington Times  had cited 'defence officials' reporting that Chinese moored sonar arrays had been detected underwater in the Bohai Sea off the northern Chinese coast, north of the Yellow Sea: a major Chinese navy operating area. In 2013 a Chinese report noted that an "underwater scientific observation network" would be given high priority during the 2011-2015 five-year plan.
If and when completed, CSSC's 'Underwater Great Wall' concept will likely include shallow and deepwater moored sonar sensors linked by undersea cables along China's Pacific coast as well as between its reclaimed island bases and Hainan Island in the South China Sea.
It is likely that the 'Underwater Great Wall' would also receive data from towed array sonars, unmanned undersea vessels, anti-submarine aircraft, plus ship and shore-based electronic intelligence systems, and satellites. Data processing by onshore supercomputers would greatly assist the location of undersea targets.
At the recent 18-21 April Defence Services Asia exhibition in Kuala Lumpur, the China Electronic Technology Group Corporation (CETC) marketed some systems that could be used in CSSC's 'Underwater Great Wall Project' as part of CETC's 'Reef Defense' proposal.
These included anti-frogman sonar and interception systems as well as short-range air defences that could be used to defend ports or China's newly reclaimed island bases in the South China Sea. A CETC official told IHS Jane's  that the 'Reef Defense' system had been purchased by the Chinese government.
COMMENT   The key advance that CSSC could bring to its 'Underwater Great Wall Project' is the incorporation of  modern supercomputers that could offer processing and potential location capabilities far superior to the US SOSUS system of the Cold War era.  If successful, a Chinese 'Underwater Great Wall' could significantly shift the naval balance of power against the US and Russia and undermine the 'extended deterrent' element that Washington offers its Asian allies and friends. If built near Taiwan, such a network of ship sonar and stationary underwater sensors could help the PLAN to deny access to US submarines if China decided to coerce or attack the island.
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Wednesday   25 May 2016 / Hour 2, Block C: Bret Stephens, WSJ editorial board, in re:  Moshe Yaalon, called Bogey, was Israel’s defense minister for four years and before that a highly-decorated fighter.   Friends with PM til March 2016: an Israeli soldier shot a wound Palestinian who was lying on the ground after he’d stabbed another Israeli soldier. The protagonist shot the Palestinian; now faces charges fo manslaughter, for having badly broken the IDF code.    Avigdor Liberman (“Russian, right-wing and nationalist”) called the soldier’s family was interpreted as supportive fo he soldier, Ten the PM’s deputy chief of staff made an indignant speech saying this was reminiscent of 1930s Germany; was rebuked for his words.  Then Yaalon came to the defense of the young soldier, winding up with Yaalon’s departure and the sudden induction of Liberman into government.  . . . Israeli society is shifting: too many start-up millionaires with wealth not trickling down.  New Israeli-Sunni alliances and an embassy in Cairo.   Netanyau has much personal military experience (commando unit when he was young). Liberman is a loose cannon and lightning rod; Americans detest him; was tried on corruption allegations (not guilty). But: Peretz took the defense portfolio in 2005-6 – presided over the disastrous war by ceding too much power to his chief of staff [or, apparently, to his wife –ed. ], but brought in the Iron Dome defense system  http://www.wsj.com/articles/netanyahu-against-the-generals-1464045651?tesla=y
Wednesday   25 May 2016 / Hour 2, Block D:  Eric Trager, Washington Institute, in re: http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/egypt-renews-its-crackdown-on-ngos
 
Hour Three
Wednesday   25 May 2016 / Hour 3, Block A:  Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor; in re:  State Dept inspector general “confirmed what we have known all along,” says Rep. Elijah Cummings of MD., top Democrat on House Oversight Committtee, in statement. “While Hillary Clinton preserved, returned tens of thousands of pages of emails to dept, Colin Powell returned none”: Cummings.   . . .  On US ambassador to an African country was using private email on govt business; Mrs Clinton fired him on the spot of that —even as she knew that that was precisely what she was doing.  . .  . Did she commingle State bz with Clinton Fdn bz?  Did she leverage her State position to benefit the family fdn? Dole out favors in order to get favors?
Wednesday   25 May 2016 / Hour 3, Block B:  Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor; in re:  McAuliffe, as the shape of things to come with HRC for eight years. A federal law enforcement official said the inquiry included $120,000 in contributions that a New Jersey construction firm controlled by a Mr. Wang made to Mr. McAuliffe’s 2013 campaign and inaugural committee. That official and a second law enforcement official, both of whom asked for anonymity to discuss the matter, said it was a preliminary inquiry of Mr. McAuliffe’s campaign donations, and they provided no detail about the nature and scope of any potential violations being scrutinized. “Bags of cash.”  http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/25/us/politics/terry-mcauliffe-wang-wenliang.html?_r=0
Terry McAuliffe was running the Clinton Foundation for a while  (oops).  Every few days, up pops another headline reminiscent of the Clinton 1990s gaucheries and illegalities. No one surprised that yet another Clinton ally is under legal suspicion.  For thirty years the press has protected them because there’s been no better alternative for the leftish press.  “This investigation of McAuliffe is unusually timed.”
VA. governor slams Justice Dept., FBI after leak: "They should be held to a higher standard" hill.cm/riukx4P pic.twitter.com/fT62XpzXja
The Sanders campaign's attack dogs:  Sanders campaign manager says the candidate's under very little pressure from Dems to quit.   bloom.bg/20APFb9 pic.twitter.com/qfvRIPoFWi
Top Sanders aide: DNC could do better than "unfair" Wasserman Schultz as chair. hill.cm/f1K8qFB pic.twitter.com/KblelkxZXI
Sanders re-ups his criticism of Clinton's Wall Street ties ahead of California primary bloom.bg/1Rp2YFl pic.twitter.com/ybZRp3l3ae
Wednesday   25 May 2016 / Hour 3, Block C:  Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor; in re: “This investigation of McAuliffe is unusually timed.”   Mrs Clinton’s home-brew server. Elizabeth Warren pointedly has not endorsed, or even defended, Mrs Clinton. On the campaign trail she punches at Trump, but in no way connected to Mrs Clinton or Mr Sanders. Pres Obama is constrained in his attacks on Trump, where Elizabeth Warren is not.   It’d give Mrs Clinton pause to see that Warren is more popular and taken more seriously that she is, esp on an awkward topic such as banks.  Warren subtly takes on Clinton, but Clinton dasn’t take on Warren. I still think Warren will be nominated as veep with Biden.  Hillary taking oncoming from all sides and doesn’t know how to handle it.  . . .  Sanders is dragging this out. I htik he;s willing being used to weaken Mrs Clinton at the polls. By whom?  I believe by this White House Sanders is raising $30 or $40 million a month.   Beating Mrs Clinton for four months straight. Whence? Who's coordinating this?   I argue: the old Obama team, incl the president and Valerie Jarrett. Their goal is to bleed her dry. “This looks like a coup, Monica – as though they've decided to prevent Mrs Clinton from being 45th president.”  Right.  Obama has shown for seven years that he doesn’t care about precedent or the law; he just gets what he wants.
Wednesday   25 May 2016 / Hour 3, Block D:  Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor; in re: Donald Trump to meet with Henry Kissinger, GOP’s foreign-policy eminence. The face-to-face session comes after weeks of phone conversations between Trump and Kissinger, who was a top advisor to presidents Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford.  The Kissinger meeting with Trump, followed by the Corker meeting: Bob Costa told me last eve that Trump presents himself as a non-interventionist realist: requires examination as to what this means for GOP.   . . . Donald Trump plans to meet with Bob Corker as VP decision looms   . . .  Monday’s meeting comes after the senator praised Trump’s late April address on world affairs. 
 
Hour Four
Wednesday   25 May 2016 / Hour 4, Block A:  Aaron Klein, Breitbart Middle East Bureau Chief; in re:  http://www.breitbart.com/jerusalem/2016/05/24/group-tied-white-house-efforts-sell-iran-deal-drafted-talking-points-smearing-critics-pro-war/  (1 of 2)
Wednesday   25 May 2016 / Hour 4, Block B:  Aaron Klein, Breitbart Middle East Bureau Chief; in re:  http://www.breitbart.com/jerusalem/2016/05/24/group-tied-white-house-efforts-sell-iran-deal-drafted-talking-points-smearing-critics-pro-war/  (2 of 2)
Wednesday   25 May 2016 / Hour 4, Block C: Janet Currie, Princeton, and Science magazine, in re: Inequality in mortality decreased among the young while increasing for older adults, 1990–2010.  Narrowing of the life expectancy gap   In the United States, the rich can expect to enjoy better health and a longer life than the poor. Despite policies directed at improving the health of both the young and the poor, there is little evidence that this relationship has changed. Currie and Schwandt looked specifically at the life expectancy of present-day children and young adults, finding that mortality inequality has in fact declined over the past 25 years (see the Perspective by Bailey and Timpe).
Science    Abstract   Many recent studies point to increasing inequality in mortality in the United States over the past 20 years. These studies often use mortality rates in middle and old age. We used poverty level rankings of groups of U.S. counties as a basis for analyzing inequality in mortality for all age groups in 1990, 2000, and 2010. Consistent with previous studies, we found increasing inequality in mortality at older ages. For children and young adults below age 20, however, we found strong mortality improvements that were most pronounced in poorer counties, implying a strong decrease in mortality inequality. These younger cohorts will form the future adult U.S. population, so this research suggests that inequality in old-age mortality is likely to decline.   http://science.sciencemag.org/content/352/6286/708   (1 of 2)
Wednesday   25 May 2016 / Hour 4, Block D:  Janet Currie, Princeton, and Science magazine, in re: Inequality in mortality decreased among the young while increasing for older adults, 1990–2010.   (2 of 2)