The John Batchelor Show

Wednesday 25 November 2015

Air Date: 
November 25, 2015

Photo, left: Looks as though Russia may sell to China the highly sophisticated S400 missile defense system, which can be defended against only by heavy US technology. This is relevant because if the missile battery happened to be installed in, say, Fujian Province, it could cover all of Taiwan. 
The S-400 Triumf (Russian: C-400 «Триумф», triumph; NATO reporting name: SA-21 Growler), previously known as S-300PMU-3, is a new generation anti-aircraft weapon system developed by Russia's Almaz Central Design Bureau in the 1990s as an upgrade of the S-300 family. It has been in service with the Russian Armed Forces since 2007. The S-400 uses three different missiles to cover its entire performance envelope. These are the extremely long-range 40N6, long range 48N6 and medium-range 9M96 missile. Each one has different capabilities.
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Co-hosts: Gordon Chang, Forbes.com. Dr. David M. Livingston, The Space Show.
 
Hour One
Wednesday   25 November     2015  / Hour 1, Block A: Harry Kazianis, executive editor of The National Interest and a senior Fellow for defense policy at the Center for the National Interest, in re: Russia has put its S400 air defense system in Latakia, Syria.  There's no way to take that out but the US fleet.  SO far, no Chinese soldiers yet deployed to do war-fighting, However, in Bamako, Mali, three Chinese nationals were murdered in their hotel by al Qaeda . China does not yet have a policy in such matters. It'll take over a lot of real estate in its nearby neighborhood, but hasn't yet designed a global" China's interests" policy.  Its economy is second-largest ($9 or1 $10 trillion); its footprint is too large not to have a global strategy.  Might be to su[[ort Russia so China can sit in the background and watch trouble. The Axis of Authoritarianism: counties with divers interest that weave to buck the intl system and bend and weave it to convenience.   Done a lot of naval exercises. Russia sells S400 and SU-35 to China'; have oil deals, etc.  Note: 1914, protagonists didn't understand who'd come in with whom in the event of a war. 
Gossip: MIT (Turkish intell) is said to have . . . 
Had the US done more in Syria, we wouldn't be talking about Turkey shooting down a Russian plane. JB: Harry, Harry! Are you speaking of he National Security Council run by Susan Rice?!
http://www.cnn.com/2015/11/20/asia/china-isis-non-intervention/
 
Wednesday   25 November     2015  / Hour 1, Block B: Greg Scarlatoiu, executive director of Committee for Human Rights in North Korea, in re: There are nine North Korean s desperate to get into South Korea, managed to escape to Vietnam – which has handed them over to China, which is about to give them to North Kirea, where they'll be imprisoned, tortures, and probably murdered.  None stateless individuals who are completely vulnerable to the predators.  Without status, you're eaten by the monsters. They'd escaped harrowing conditions in N Korea – a human right nightmare. Eighty per cent of refugees are women.  Many fall victim to human traffickers, are forced into marriage with poor men in China.  The PRC is party to the 1951 Refugee Conventions, but claims these are "economic migrants" – refugies sur place; if repatriate to N Korea they facc very likely extreme danger. If it turn out that came into contact with South Koreans or Christian, they'll be imprisoned at best. If they became pregnant by a Chinese man forced infanticide. 
Some human rights NGOs have tried to have China change its stance.  South Korea, a stanch democracy, is obliged to acknowledge every Korean to be a citizen. If they can gain access to a consulate, they can begin the process of getting citizenship. We need a grass-roots campaign similar to the worldwide campaign against Apartheid South Africa, Because there are so many refugee crises today, this one is less noted – but it deserves much attention. Especially those with trade relations with DPRK: China Vietnam, Laos. If these nine people are sent back to North Korea, one of whom is an eleven-month baby, will be disappeared. 
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/china-urged-not-to-repatriate-north-koreans-caught-trying-to-escape/2015/11/21/612335cb-c9f0-4657-9a75-35bf31d59e9a_story.html
Wednesday   25 November     2015  / Hour 1, Block C: Dr. Charles Lurio, MIT Aeronautics & Astronautics; Lurio Report, which focusses on news & analysis of the NewSpace Industry. See: thelurioreport.com ; in re: Jeff Bezos's Blue Origin is bldg New Shepherd, which yesterday flew up to 100 km, brought it back, landed it vertically (for 100 km?) at the launch pad and therefore it's re-usable.  First such accomplishment by anyone; breaks the ice for commercial suborbital transport.  There's an animated portion of the video about buying a ticket on this flight.  Capsule separated at peak altitude, returned by parachute separately.  Will continue for a few more years gaining experience. It flies automated, no pilot. Moments of zero-G gravity, you float around and look out the window.   Seems like extremely high risk to count on parachutes to get you back. Plan B? Nope. There's a drove chute, but other than that you count on those three chutes. The genius is the recovery of the first stage.  Blast off vertically and land vertically. So the competition watches:  reusable suborbital? SpaceX is facing more challenges because they go to twice the velocity in the first stage before recovery, and have several engine burns to execute, but it's a much larger vehicle since it's lifting a payload to orbit.  Musk doesn't like being beaten by Bezos; but Bezos launches from Florida, arcs over the ocean, and has to land on a barge that moves with wave motion.  NASA will not spend a dime on reusable launchers – it's pathetic. They're out of the business because they've been burned too many times by their own errors and those forced on them by Congress.  We need a long-term research group, but NASA is not it. 
Wednesday   25 November     2015  / Hour 1, Block D:  Carl Zimmer, in re: In a Tooth, DNA from Some Very Old Cousins, the Denisovans  A fossil found in a Siberian cave yields evidence from a vanished, once-hardy branch of the human tree that lived at least 110,000 years ago.

Hour Two
Wednesday   25 November     2015  / Hour 2, Block A: Rick Fisher, senior Fellow at the International Assessment and Strategy Center, in re: After the Turkish shoot-down of the Su-24, Russia deploys is its excellent S400 to Latakia in Syria – 400 km range. Cd be deployed in the South China Sea  to make an ADIZ over the South China Sea, but will have a greater impact over the Taiwan Strait idf deployed in Fujian, whence it could cover all of Taiwan. Defense against that: take out the radar ad the batteries, themselves. Can use actual Cruise missiles (air- and ground-launched); plus sophisticated countermeasures not publicly known. The USAF has been war y f triple-digit SAMS f0r a long time. We've never flown against air forces w triple-digit SAMs.  China ahs been doing that – deploying aircraft in Woody Island - in the Paracels (north of the Spratleys) for years; but the latest J-11BH could be corrosion–treated to be deployed for a long time, The J15 carrier fighters worked on on the Yaoning are corrosion–treated and could be deployed immediately.  Yesterday Chinese state media: largest new Chinese-army-controlled amphibious assault ship deployed to Woody Island. The S400 would most effectively be used vs Taiwan, Vietnam, Philippines.  The Carrier-killer or Guam-killer: can be put on an LST, stored in a hangar till needed.    From Spratleys, could reach US Marines in Darwin. 
Don't yet know, but it strikes me as possible that PLA Navy J-11s may be "corrosion treated" so that they may be more ready for SCS deployment.   Deduce this inasmuch as carrier-based J-15s would be so treated, so why not do the same for land based fighters intended for maritime missions?  Question for a future arms exhibit.   Also:
1)  When will the PLA deploy long-range missiles to these islands?  From these islands, for example, the 4000 km-range DF-26 can reach US Marines in Darwin, Australia, and reach Guam. 2)  Having consolidated and armed its new bases, how long before the PLA attacks Philippine, Vietnamese and Taiwan islands?   Attacking Taiping might be an attractive "indirect" demonstration of violence should Xi deem this necessary to "contain" Tsai Ing Wen.   Already having four LPD amphibious assault ships, the PLA could easily pick off this island.  Jane's article attached on PLA use of civil inland ro-ro barges as practice for invasion operations.   
3) And should the PLA take the other Spratly Group islands, how long before they're expanded and they collectively become a large lilly pad to support a punitive raid or invasion of Palawan?   Against this potential, President Obama's "martial" display in Manila last week is commendable but insufficient.   Three elderly USCG cutters serving as frigates amounts to a gesture, albeit in the right direction.  Japan is giving the RP 10 new CG cutters of about the same size, is transferring twin engine Beechcraft trainers to serve as patrollers, and is considering giving much larger, retired P-3Cs.  It would have been much more impressive if Obama were visiting a flight line of F-16s rather than one small combatant.   
Also, there was supposed to have been a 6th PLA test of its hypersonic maneuvering vehicle "DF-ZF" earlier today.  By Wednesday we may know more about this.  Have written on previews of a Chinese Prompt Global Strike capability.
http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/blog/gordon-g-chang/china-militarizes-south-china-sea
Wednesday   25 November     2015  / Hour 2, Block B: Charles Burton, professor at Brock University, in re:  Xi Jinping is in his third year of leadership; it shd be the peak of his power, but instead we see justifications for the Party's leadership, esp nationalism and bizarre claims on small coastal islands in the South China Sea that clearly belong to Philippines, Vietnam, and other neighbors.  We see China pushing out from its boundaries – India, Senkakus [Diaoyutai], and everywhere in between: taking territory from others.   "This has gone beyond freedom of navigation; it's political provocation." Japan has expressed strong support for US ships's defending freedom of navigation.  Indonesia [apparently afraid of Chinese bad reactions] backs off; as do Laos and Cambodia. However, even [the generally compliant] Malaysia is now speaking out on the South China Sea. More and more military assets are being deployed; over history, we see that somebody eventually starts to use what they've put in place; this augurs a bad outcome.  China claims it's expanding and upgrading civilian facilities where hitherto there was no island; that's like the Monty Python sketch.  Then China claims there's an international conspiracy against it. 
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-22/japan-renews-south-china-sea-alert-pushes-aussies-on-submarines
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/22/us-asean-summit-idUSKCN0TB01P20151122
Wednesday   25 November     2015  / Hour 2, Block C:  Michael Auslin, AEI, in re: a  look at the social, political, and economic foundations of Japan's national power that was featured in Strategic Asia 2015–16: Foundations of National Power in the Asia-Pacific. Japan has the economic strength, political cohesiveness, and state infrastructure to develop and deploy comparatively significant military capabilities in Asia.  Also note the recent China-Taiwan summit to explore if liberal internationalism is changing Beijing's international behavior, as long predicted by proponents of engagement, in an essay in The American Interest. Also in The National Interest I looked briefly at next steps for American freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea.  https://www.aei.org/publication/japans-national-power-in-a-shifting-glob...
Wednesday   25 November     2015  / Hour 2, Block D:  Thomas Goltz, Politico, in re: http://www.politico.eu/article/karabakhs-soccer-refugees-take-on-europe/
 
Hour Three
Wednesday   25 November     2015  / Hour 3, Block A: Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor; in re: Tension with Russia Built Up Before Turkey’s Downing of Jet  President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had nuanced reasons to allow Turkish pilots to open fire, analysts say, including his irritation with Russia over issues beyond Syria.
Wednesday   25 November     2015  / Hour 3, Block B: Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor; in re:
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/2016-presidential-c...
Wednesday   25 November     2015  / Hour 3, Block C: Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor; in re: Cruz?  Rubio? http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/ted-cruz.html
Wednesday   25 November     2015  / Hour 3, Block D: Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor; in re: Mrs Clinton has been Secretary, First Lady, knows every element of the federal government. .Her  problem is young, female Democrats; why?  In some ways young Millennials feel let down by Pres Obama; they feel let down and disenfranchised, failed by politics. Also, they just don't like her.   The younger women look and think,, she doesn't represent feminism or me; she got there on the tails of her husband.   Ergo, she offers free college tuition – but they don't believe it.  It's as though she'd forgot the tools that got her here.  Her Brooklyn campaign manager is named Mook – under 30 and charming. Does she want this job?  With eight years fog that rictus grin – she pulls her lips back and it looks as though she'll bite you? Yes, absolutely. 
 
Hour Four
Wednesday 25 November 2015  / Hour 4, Block A: The Marquis: Lafayette Reconsidered, by Laura Auricchio ; Part III of III (segment 1 of 4)
Wednesday 25 November 2015  / Hour 4, Block B: The Marquis: Lafayette Reconsidered, by Laura Auricchio ; Part III of III (segment 2 of 4)
Wednesday 25 November 2015  / Hour 4, Block C: The Marquis: Lafayette Reconsidered, by Laura Auricchio ; Part III of III (segment 3 of 4)
Wednesday 25 November 2015  / Hour 4, Block D: The Marquis: Lafayette Reconsidered, by Laura Auricchio ; Part III of III (segment 4 of 4)