Photo, left:  The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), also called the Law of the Sea Convention or the Law of the Sea treaty, is the international agreement that resulted from the third United Nations Conference on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS III), which took place between 1973 and 1982. The Law of the Sea Convention defines the rights and responsibilities of nations with respect to their use of the world's oceans, establishing guidelines for businesses, the environment, and the management of marine natural resources.
 
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
 
Co-hosts: Gordon Chang, Forbes.com & Daily Beast.  Dr. David M. Livingston, The Space Show.
 
Hour One
Wednesday   3 February 2016 / Hour 1, Block A: Ketty Chen, DPP senior deputy director & aide to President-elect Tsai Ing-wen of Taiwan, in re:  Successful democratic handover in Taiwan from the KuoMinTang (KMT), which has rubbed toes too closely with Beijing, to the DPP, the Democratic Peoples Party.  Beijing must have a lot of long faces, but Taiwanese people are exultant. Long transitional period from the election in January to the handover, in May.  Formerly, TW election was in mid-March, but the KMT changed the date to mid-January.   Dr Tsai has regularly said that she looks forward to working closely with the KMT to ensure a smooth transition.   Pres Ma said that he Party that wins the legislature should convene the new Cabinet, but there’s no historical precedent for that.  [hiss-skkk – a loud electrical blowout] . . .  The risks relate to what Beijing might try to do during this unusually long transition period; but we’d better watch out.  KC: The DDP feels confident on its own governance: Dr Tsai has been preparing her administration for a long time and we have multiple experts from think-tanks.  http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-03/pboc-intervening-now-yuan-soaring
Taiwan kicked out its ruling party for getting too close to mainland China. Here’s what comes next.. . . Background: The KMT aimed for closer ties with China, but the Sunflower Movement objected. [Pres Ma Ying-jeou {KuoMinTang} has functionally been accused of selling out Taiwan to Mainland China in a series of surreptitious deals.] Ma signed the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) with China in 2010, promising economic growth. Opponents objected that the agreement had been negotiated without public input and legislative due process.
[Will Beijing be gobsmacked by China’s election results?]  In particular, they objected to what they believed were lopsided terms of the Cross-Strait Agreement on Trade in Services, one of the framework’s landmark treaties. (China and Taiwan are separated by the Taiwan Strait in the western Pacific Ocean.) In March 2014, the KMT was attempting to ratify the services’ agreement when the Sunflower Movement brought that to a halt.
The Sunflower Movement was led largely by Taiwanese youth, in coalition with labor and other civil society groups. It orchestrated a three-week sit-in in the legislature, followed by a march on the presidential palace that drew half a million people. The Sunflower Movement claims as its ancestor the Wild Lily Movement, which pushed for democracy 25 years ago after 40 years of martial law under the KMT — and it galvanized Taiwanese of different political stripes to political action.
The students objected that the services agreement obligated Taiwan to permit direct Chinese investment in Taiwan in a wide range of industries, including banking, construction, health care and telecommunications, at levels far beyond what Taiwan had previously allowed, and without reciprocal liberalization of the same sectors in China. The Sunflower Movement also feared that the island’s economy, dominated by small- and medium-size enterprises that account for 97 percent of Taiwan’s enterprises and 78 percent of its share of employment, would be overwhelmed by competition with or acquisition by state-backed Chinese businesses. . . . https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/02/01/taiwan-kicked-out-its-ruling-party-for-getting-too-close-to-mainland-china-heres-what-comes-next/
Wednesday   3 February 2016 / Hour 1, Block B:  James Holmes, professor of strategy at the Naval War College and a former surface warfare officer, in re:  PLA Navy is alarmed at the US Navy’s Arleigh Burke-class destroyer USS Curtis Wilbur’s having circled Triton Island, in the Paracels, three times at its leisure. US was exercising it clear legal right to freedom of navigation. Laying claim to the island: PRC, Taiwan, and Vietnam.  Hanoi is a lot more concerned about Beijing’s moves than about the US exercising freedom of navigation. US cares about who makes excessive claims on the waters and skies in that region.  The Paracels are within 200 mi of Vietnam, allowing Hanoi to drill for oil there.   . .  .  What’ll happen? If the ship is being seen as backed up by the whole US Navy, China will not much press forward [we win].  Gunboat diplomacy.   http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-southchinasea-china-idUSKCN0V8093
Correction: the US carefully sailed the USS Curtis Wilbur under innocent passage rules, not freedom of navigation. “Innocent passage” can occur when a vessel performs no military operation, e.g., move guns, or launch or land a helo. Instead, the ship just sailed. One reason the US is concerned to maintain the legal definitions and distinction is that at present there’s an important case before the Court in The Hague that's of consequence to the Department of Justice and the White House, and all are eager not to muddy the waters, so to speak.
Innocent passage is a concept in law of the sea which allows for a vessel to pass through the territorial waters of another state subject to certain restrictions. The UN Convention on the Law of the Sea defines innocent passage as:
Passage is innocent so long as it is not prejudicial to the peace, good order or security of the coastal State. Such passage shall take place in conformity with this Convention and with other rules of international law.
Wednesday   3 February 2016 / Hour 1, Block C: Peter Zwack, Brig-Gen (ret), National Defense University, in re:  In 2013, the Long, White Nights of Russia in St Petersburg. Head of US Defense Intell Agy, Gen Flynn, & head of GRU (Russian mil intell), Gen Sergun,  met to see how to work together in some matters.  It was a “nuanced meeting” and yet a personal relationship of a mild sort did in fact develop.  Peter Zwack hosted the dinner at his residence.  Russian admired a Leroy Niemann print of Red Square.  Effort to make contact between serious operational people to build links and conduits so that if there’s an accident, people can call each other to avoid disaster.   Need to develop relationships to talk through any accident or incident; also, if brinksmanship, at least some people can understand each other and can talk people off the ledge while the Big Leaders are [puffing up].  These are hard-nosed meetings.  “De-demonize” each other; demystify the GRU, for example.  “The airlocks fit.”  Apollo & Soyuz.   . . .  After two years of comms cut-off (post-Crimea), we need to restart the conversations.  . . .  CBMs.   http://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2016/02/death-gru-commander/125567/?oref=site-defenseone-flyin-sailthru
Wednesday   3 February 2016 / Hour 1, Block D:  Peter Zwack, Brig-Gen (ret),  National Defense University, in re:  head of GRU, Gen Sergun, suddenly dies at age 57; Peter Zwack knew him, so there was an opportunity to hold a meeting in memoriam and also to talk.  Khabarovsk.  Common interests between the two powers:  demographic challenges — the haves an have-nots; the push on resources. Eleven times zones has 12o0 mill people. Seven per cent of Russians are Muslim, with 90% Sunni, most of them secular and moderate.  Globally, the demo challenge – energy, economics, many matters. The Arctic is important – we shd work out nonconfrontation there. Also, Central Asia. Resources.   We must convey that NATO is defensive, not aggressive.  We’ve got to work on these together.  Remaining big challenges: Syria; Ukraine; distrust on missile defense; residual resentment anent the Russian troubles in the late 1990s.  Sergun had to report to somebody; his mtg with Gen Flynn led to his facilitating mtgs between US Far East and Russia’s; also Western forces; building understanding.   http://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2015/11/us-russia-must-agree-disagree-wa...
 
Hour Two
Wednesday   3 February 2016 / Hour 2, Block A:  Mike Davis, professor at Hong Kong University Law School, in re: Five Hong Kong bookseller were brutally kidnapped by Beijing operatives because they published books critical of the unelected tyrants of Beijing, including a book on Xi Jin-ping’s surreptitious love life.  Beijing also interfered massively in the hitherto-free Hong Kong University.  Chinese central government feels threatened by books and professors!   The despots aren’t used to having to deal with contest; a bad little communist habit.   Mainland identified fourteen publishers to be “cut off at the source” – probably to interrogate them!   Complicated and murky. 
There’s a govt nominally running Hong Kong for the people, but in fact work at the behest of Beijing. This causes more trouble for the depots of Beijing   A ship heading toward the rocks.   The young people protesting have a certain amount to fear for their own physical security.   http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/02/us-calls-on-china-to-clarify-status-of-missing-hong-kong-booksellers  ;  https://www.hongkongfp.com/2016/01/27/mob-rule-hku-vice-chancellor-condemns-students-for-besieging-governing-council-meeting/
The United States has called on China to clarify the status of five missing Hong Kong booksellers, saying the case has raised serious questions about China’s commitment to Hong Kong’s autonomy under the one country, two systems framework. The booksellers – including Lee Bo, 65, a dual British and Chinese national and owner of a publisher and bookstore specialising in books critical of China’s Communist party leaders – are believed by many to have been abducted by mainland agents.
US state department spokesman John Kirby told a regular news briefing that Washington was “deeply concerned.” “These cases ... raise serious questions about China’s commitment to Hong Kong’s autonomy under the one country, two systems framework, as well as its respect for the protection of universal human rights and fundamental freedoms,” he said. “We urge China to clarify the current status of all five individuals and the circumstances surrounding their disappearances and to allow them to return to their homes.”
The British government is still waiting for responses to its diplomatic requests for information and access to Lee, who disappeared from Hong Kong on 30 December. Lee’s wife visited him in a mainland guesthouse on 23 January and issued a statement saying he was healthy and in good spirits, and that he was a witness in an investigation. Four other booksellers are believed to be still in mainland detention, including Swedish national Gui Min-hai, who disappeared from the Thai resort town of Pattaya last October.
Wednesday   3 February 2016 / Hour 2, Block B:  Andrew Collier, managing director of Orient Capital Research based in Hong Kong, in re: the adequacy of China's foreign exchange reserves.  Money fleeing China!  Around $1 trillion a year (or $911 billion, according to Ann Stevenson Yang). People leaving like rats escaping a ship.  The central govt has ordered people not to buy insurance in Hong Kong.  Can't do draconian controls as that wd turn the country into an autarchy and stop trade.  I think they have to devalue the RMB by 30%  Thirty per cent?  Actually, my opinion is that there’s no bottom to the RMB.  Note that New York hedgies are betting tens of billions shorting the RMB p betting that the RMB’s value will decrease in the future.  This is what George Soros did against the pound sterling.  . . . Intervention by PBOC?  They go to the mkt and sell dollars to buy RMB.  I disagree about comparison with Soros:  the pressure here is internal. IMF says that China needs $2.7 trillion to maintain a stable reserve.  But liquid?   It's forests and trees, and bank stocks.  People have no confidence in the leadership.  http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12134684/Time-running-out-for-China-on-capital-flight-warns-bank-chief.html
Time running out for China on capital flight, warns bank chief  'The Chinese have not been very convincing. There is a perception that the renminbi could weaken drastically,' warns the Institute of International Finance
Wednesday   3 February 2016 / Hour 2, Block C: Martin Fackler, Tokyo, in re: Japan: BoJ and China problems. . . .  Patriot missile batteries in the middle of Tokyo.  If Japan had a more robust economic situation  would it be as worried about Chinese threats? No – you're right, they wouldn’t Japan is reorienting defenses from the north to their southwest, and are speaking of putting Japanese ships in the South China Sea –a game-changer.  If Abe goes too far he’ll get a pushback; if not enough, he’ll be called weak. 
Wednesday   3 February 2016 / Hour 2, Block D:  Hotel Mars, episode n.  Peter Faust, Space Review, in re:  http://observer.com/2016/02/nasas-new-space-shuttle-is-a-work-of-futuris...
 
Hour Three
Wednesday   3 February 2016 / Hour 3, Block A:  Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor; in re:  Cruz, Rubio, Clinton, Sanders. And Ran Paul quits.  (1 of 4)
Wednesday   3 February 2016 / Hour 3, Block B:  Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor; in re:  Cruz, Rubio, Clinton, Sanders. And Ran Paul quits.  (2 of 4)
Wednesday   3 February 2016 / Hour 3, Block C:  Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor; in re:  Cruz, Rubio, Clinton, Sanders. And Ran Paul quits.  (3 of 4)
Wednesday   3 February 2016 / Hour 3, Block D:  Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor; in re:  Cruz, Rubio, Clinton, Sanders. And Ran Paul quits.  (4 of 4) 
 
Hour Four
Wednesday   3 February 2016 / Hour 4, Block A:  Aaron Klein, Middle East bureau chief for Breitbart; in re:  New Gaza Tunnel Collapse Kills More Hamas Operatives(Jerusalem Post)      Hamas officials confirmed on Wednesday the death of at least two of its operatives in a terror tunnel collapse in Gaza. Eight others were reported missing.  Last week, seven Hamas men were killed when a tunnel collapsed close to the border with Israel.   http://www.breitbart.com/jihad/2016/02/03/three-palestinian-terrorists-carry-out-combined-shooting-stabbing-at-jerusalems-damascus-gate/  ;  http://www.breitbart.com/jihad/2016/02/03/israeli-general-islamic-state-is-our-enemy-we-share-intelligence-with-allies-in-common-fight/ (1 of 2)
Wednesday   3 February 2016 / Hour 4, Block B:  Aaron Klein, Middle East bureau chief for Breitbart; (2 of 2) 
Wednesday   3 February 2016 / Hour 4, Block C: Richard A Epstein, Hoover & Chicago Law & NYU Law; in re:   Over the past several weeks, we’ve once again seen how the Federal Reserve’s stimulus policy has done nothing to help the economy. Fourth quarter growth for 2015 was a disappointing 0.7 percent, and there are no obvious signs of improvement in sight for 2016. Nonetheless, as the U.S. economy continues to smolder, the Fed acts as though pulling levers on interest rates will get us out of this seemingly endless trough. Clearly something is amiss if the basic stimulus approach of the last seven years has failed to stem the tide of global economic stagnation…  http://www.hoover.org/research/why-fiscal-stimulus-fails (1 of 2)
Wednesday   3 February 2016 / Hour 4, Block D:  Richard A Epstein, Hoover & Chicago Law & NYU Law; in re:   Over the past several weeks, we’ve once again seen how the Federal Reserve’s stimulus policy has done nothing to help the economy. Fourth quarter growth for 2015 was a disappointing 0.7 percent, and there are no obvious signs of improvement in sight for 2016. Nonetheless, as the U.S. economy continues to smolder, the Fed acts as though pulling levers on interest rates will get us out of this seemingly endless trough. Clearly something is amiss if the basic stimulus approach of the last seven years has failed to stem the tide of global economic stagnation…  http://www.hoover.org/research/why-fiscal-stimulus-fails (2 of 2)
 
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