The John Batchelor Show

Wednesday 4 December 2013

Air Date: 
December 04, 2013

Photo, above: November 2012: Zhou Yongkang stresses developing socialism with Chinese characteristics. See: Hour 2, Block A, Bruce Bechtol, and subsequent segments.

BUSTED: Zhou Yongkang is a retired senior leader of the Communist Party of China (CPC) who served on the 17th Politburo Standing Committee (PSC), and the head of the Central Political and Legislative Committee between 2007 and 2012. In that position Zhou oversaw China's security forces and law enforcement institutions.

Zhou was a State Councillor until March 2008 and is a member of the Secretariat of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China. He was graduated from the Survey and Exploration Department of Beijing Petroleum Institute majoring in geophysical survey and exploration. By the mid-1980s he was vice minister of the Petroleum Industry, and from 1996 General Manager of the China National Petroleum Corporation, China’s largest energy company. In 1998 he was Minister of Land and Resources and in 1999, secretary of the Communist Party of China Sichuan Provincial Committee. During his tenure as Minister of Public Security, he was a reformer of China's policing system, aiming to create a more professional police force, even going as far as to fire several hundred police officers for drinking problems.  Zhou became responsible for China’s courts, police, paramilitary and various domestic state security and spying agencies. As a result, even though he is ranked last in the PSC's hierarchy, it is not an indication of his actual power (this last is contested by some Chinese observers).

Several leaked U.S. diplomatic cables from Wikileaks have alleged Zhou's involvement in Beijing's cyber attack against Google, though the claim's veracity has been questioned. Other cables said it was "well-known" that Zhou Yongkang controlled the state monopoly of the oil sector.

In May 2012 the Financial Times reported that Zhou had relinquished the operational control of the party's Political and Legal Affairs Commission to Minister of Public Security Meng Jianzhu due to his support for former Chinese politician Bo Xilai, and had lost his right to select his successor when he retired from the Politburo Standing Committee in fall 2012. In August 2013, the Chinese government opened up a corruption investigation into Zhou as part of a wider anti-graft campaign following Bo Xilai’s trial. On Sunday 1 December 2013, Hong Kong papers reported that he had been arrested; today, 4 December, rumors circulate that his arrest was for attempting to assassinate Xi Jinping.

JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW

Hour One

Wednesday  4 December  2013  / Hour 1, Block A: Toshi Yoshihara, John A. van Beuren Chair of Asia-Pacific Studies at the Naval War College, in re: events in the East China Sea.  VP Joseph Biden asked the PRC to rescind its sudden Air Defense Identification Zone covering the East China Sea. PRC rebuked him and refused.  Tonight: rumor of turmoil: Zhou Yongkang - Politburo Standing Committee, member of CPC Central Committee - detained for attempting to assassinate Xi Jinping?   Last year, rumors of gunshots at leadership compound.  Zhou has long been a good friend of Kim Jong-eun's just-purged uncle in North Korea.  China intending to establish control over the western Pacific:  allow others overflight rights "as long as they adhere to Chinese rules."  Contradiction in terms.   Xi has grand ambitions, encapsulated in "China dream" – to become a great power, for which it'll need great maritime power.  All neighboring states in SE Asia cannot together resist this level of Chinese power. China will not stop at one carrier; stepping-stone to the next generation of carriers, based on lessons learned form this one.

Wednesday  4 December  2013  / Hour 1, Block B: Arthur Waldron, Lauder Professor of International Relations at the University of Pennsylvania, in re: Xi stands 5'11', tallest leader since Mao; wears a long greatcoat, moves with an aura of power; intends to be supreme leader.  Now Zhou Yongkang is under suspicion ad Bo Xilai is in jail – a government of thieves.  In PRC< each leader has been weaker than the previous – until Xi.  He wants a country economically advanced but even more socially repressive than it is now.  "He has he kind of ambition that makes other people worry."  He leans toward the military, although he has no mil qualification. Gives lots of money and leeway to the military – they’re the ones with the guns, who could sweep away the Communist regime in a minute.  Most mil leaders probably would rather report to the govt instead of to the Party, as it is now.  House guest from Beijing  speaks about instability in China.

 

Document to Arrest Zhou Yongkang Granted

 

Wednesday  4 December  2013  / Hour 1, Block C: Dr. David M. Livingston, The Space Show, and Leonard David, SPACE.com, in re: China Launches Jade Rabbit rover on its first moon-landing mission.   Chang'e (the goddess), a multistage program – two orbiters around the Moon so far – a lot of the technology is considered risky, but if successful will have a lander and a rover on the Moon. Fun!  A lot of sophisticated instruments on the rover: scientific eqpt to give the impression that they're in this for a long haul and have big plans.

Wednesday  4 December  2013  / Hour 1, Block D:   Rick Fisher, Intl Strategy and Assessment Center, in re: US essentially kicked Huawei out: its technology, which pervades the world's networks, is being exploited by Chinese intelligence services.  Company was founded by the Chinese military in the ate 1980s.  UK, Australia and Canada all becoming most concerned; warned South Korea about it.  Huawei was created by the Chinese state, beholden to the Communist Party, and obliged to cooperate with Chinese intelligence Company has grown shockingly fast – with CCP support. Went from nowhere in two decades to dominate the world in servers.  Second Island Chain extends out to Guam. Aircraft carriers being build, nuclear-powered bombers, supersonic and subsonic; a 4,000-km range supersonic        . By 202 will project power globally – new armor systems, amphibious warfare ships.  This is all about break-out.  ADIZ to force Japan out of the way, maybe take the Sakishimas, to allow a PLA breakout in the north, in South China Sea, and push Vietnam and Philippines out of the way.  Yesterday's Beijing times; a mil source said 1. the guidance system for the Chang-e 3 lander has a laser-based guidance system from a surface-to-air missile, and 2, how the Moon can be used for military purposes. 

Photo, right: Chinese State Councilor and Minister of Public Security Zhou Yongkang with the former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger.

Hour Two

Wednesday  4 December  2013  / Hour 2, Block A: Bruce Bechtol, author of The Last Days of Kim Jong-il: The North Korean Threat in a Changing Era,  in re: Kim Jong-eun leads this wholly nontransparent regime; his father's brother-in-law, Jong Song-taek, has been arrested, reportedly been purged (according to ROK intell svc) and two of his aides executed in November.  Consolidate power by purges.  The  Party, security svcs and military: KJE has had to force leaders of all three within the last two years, a sign of major weakness.  He was purging his father's old friend not to show power but because here was a power grab going on and KJE was afraid of losing power. Leaves a power vacuum that makes governance harder.  Zhou Yongkang (military security czar – the "interior police" – was in charge of the border – the smuggling, sex trade, slave trade)  in China has been detained apparently for a plot to assassinate Xi Jinping, and Zhou has been a longtime friend of Jong Song-taek. Jong, married to KJE's sister, has twice been purged and unpurged; widely known for living in a lavishness unrivalled by anyone but KJE. Coming period of instability in North Korea?

Wednesday  4 December  2013  / Hour 2, Block B: Walter Lohman, Director of Asian Studies at the Heritage Foundation, in re:  Biden's trip to Asia.   . . .  classic American legal warfare: where we think we have a legal right, we simply exercise the right.  What we did wrong was have the State Dept advise American carriers to knuckle under to China's demands.  At he very least, we need to coordinate with Japan.  China will not rescind the ADIZ; best you can hope for is that they not enforce it. In a street brawl, the first blow wins.  The vice-president loses. 

Photo, below:  Wanted_Zhou_Yongkang   /  Free Tenzin Delek. Arrest Zhou Yongkang. 
April 7th marked ten years since the arrest of Buddhist teacher and community leader Tenzin Delek Rinpoche, currently serving a life sentence for crimes he did not commit. SFT escalated the campaign for his release by issuing a global "warrant" for Zhou Yongkang's arrest. A current Politburo member and former Sichuan Party Secretary, Zhou is the man responsible for the arrest and sentencing of Tenzin Delek and heavy-handed repression against Tibetans. We sent thousands of faxes and emails to Zhou in Beijing while pasting WANTED posters of him in dozens of cities around the world.

Wednesday  4 December  2013  / Hour 2, Block C: David Lague [la-gyu], Reuters Hong Kong, in re: A main fear is that a small miscalculation around the ADIZ, in context of strong national sentiment on all sides, could swiftly fall out of control were there an accident.  Many different voices in China. some warning that he risk of war should not be taken lightly ("so would be catastrophic on all sides") but many officers have no war experience and my be incautious.  China has a strong economy, a legitimate national interest, and now expect to have a strong military – has massive trading interest to protect, sovereign territory.  Chinese decision to nationalize the Diao Yu Island (Senkakus) seems legit to Chinese, and the Japanese leaders's attendance at their WWII military shrine is seen as provocative by Chinese.  Note that ADIZ includes sovereign South Korean space; this isn’t just Japan, it’s all the neighbors.  When China and Japan are in a period of high tension, the world's second- and third-largest economies; and both with powerful and capable navies: worry.  The US is treaty-bound with Japan in defense, and has consistently said it takes no position on rectitude of ownership but opposes any move to resolve it by force. 

China's navy breaks out to the high seas  In late October, flotillas of Chinese warships and submarines sliced through passages in the Japanese archipelago and out into the western Pacific for 15 days of war games.

The drills, pitting a "red force" against a "blue force," were the first in this area, combining ships from China's main south, east and north fleets, according to the Chinese military. Land-based bombers and surveillance aircraft also flew missions past Japan to support the navy units.

In official commentaries, senior People's Liberation Army (PLA) officers boasted their navy had "dismembered" the so-called first island chain - the arc of islands enclosing China's coastal waters, stretching from the Kuril Islands southward through the Japanese archipelago, Taiwan, the Northern Philippines and down to Borneo.

Named Manoeuvre 5, these were no ordinary exercises. They were the latest in a series of increasingly complex and powerful thrusts through . . .  [more]

Wednesday  4 December  2013  / Hour 2, Block D:  Joseph Sternberg, WSJ Asia editorial board, in re:  the world's top innovating employees can work anywhere on Earth, and China's [tyranny] plus other inappropriate treatment plus ghastly ecology all make it highly unlikely that they'll go to China. An instance here he state, itself, squashes innovation.  You lose all the avenues you have in an open market for creative disruption. Spending lots on "innovation" fails if you lack the broader ecosystems that allow innovation to flourish.  In Hong Kong, creative people ask, "Why should I be bothered to go to Mainland when it stunts everything I enjoy doing?"  Inter al., are they paying enough? (not really), and intractable quality- of-life issues. At the bottom end of the economy wages are going up three times faster than productivity is; the low-cost mfrg model isn’t working as well as it used to.  People have been pleasantly surprised by new leaders's ambition –on paper; nothing yet in reality. 

Hour Three

Wednesday  4 December  2013  / Hour 3, Block A:  Gordon Chang, Forbes.com, in re: new Chinese ADIZ; Bo Xilai's aftereffects; the Party apparatus and the guys with guns.  North Korea.  In China, a real concern that the military may take over – some hold that the Party must control the military.   The US asks that China rescind its sudden ADIZ, which of course it will not. In China's ADIZ, US, Japanese, Korean and Taiwanese planes all flying though the zone to explain that  none of them considers the ADIZ legitimate. Arthur Waldron ahs been speaking with Chinese guests: real concern about the direction f the country: social stability and that of the Party. Not a good sign. 

Wednesday  4 December  2013  / Hour 3, Block B:  John Tamny, Forbes Opinion, in re: Thanks to uncareful voting made careless by prosperity, Americans once a generation vote into power second rate thinkers whose ideas are inimical to growth.  We did it in the '30s, the '70s, and in the 2000s under Bush and Obama.  The beauty of Obama's failures is that they're setting the stage for a positive change in the electorate as rising stock markets reveal.  Republicans should thank Obama for reminding voters how totally inept is government.  

Republicans Should Be Falling Over One Another to Thank President Obama  The controversies raging about the merits of two very different Obama administration policies, the Affordable Care Act and addressing Iran’s nuclear program, shed light on the common political outlook that underlies them.

President Obama’s signature domestic initiative and his grandest foreign affairs undertaking alike reflect a defining feature of the progressive or left-liberal mind. Both betray an incoherent opinion, or rather incoherent set of opinions, about politics and law. In both cases, Obama began by exaggerating the primacy of the rule of law. Subsequently, without fanfare, apology, or apparent regret he blithely disregarded the requirements of law.

Wednesday  4 December  2013  / Hour 3, Block C:  Mary Anastasia O'Grady, Wall Street Journal AMERICAS, in re: The Pope, the State and Venezuela  
Nicolás Maduro needs . . .

Wednesday  4 December  2013  / Hour 3, Block D: Peter Berkowiitz, Hoover & Real Clear Politics, in re: "Liberals' Love-Hate Relationship with the Law,"

Hour Four

Wednesday  4 December  2013  / Hour 4, Block A: Jeff Anderson, Weekly  Standard, in re:  “Wise Beyond Their Years: The Young Won’t Show Up for Obamacare” . . . the underlying fallacy of young people signing up for Obamacare, proving that the premise of the system is wrong.

Wednesday  4 December  2013  / Hour 4, Block B: Jed Babbin, American Spectator, in re:

China is suddenly claiming sovereignty over Japan's Senkaku Islands and is enforcing an "air defense identification zone" with fighter aircraft. And Joe Biden is in Japan today to defuse the crisis. Why doesn't that give us a warm fuzzy feeling?  The Coming Oil Wars | The American Spectator

Wednesday  4 December  2013  / Hour 4, Block C: Robert Zimmerman, behindtheblack.com, in re: Russia consolidates its space industry into one giant government-owned corporation.

While the U.S. is working to increase the number of space companies and thus the competition to get into space, Russia is returning to its Soviet-era roots. The consolidation includes this telling quote:  The country is set to radically centralize its space industry in a bid to combat major inefficiencies and cut down on the misuse of funds under plans unveiled by Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin, who oversees the defense and aerospace sectors.

This decision does not really bode well for Russia’s effort to compete on the open market. You never solve inefficiencies or cut costs by eliminating competition. Instead, the lack of competition encourages inefficiency and increased cost.

Chang’e 3 and Yutu – The tale of a beautiful goddess and her rabbit on the Moon.  In this case, the goddess and rabbit are Chinese robots exploring the Moon for science. The launch is scheduled for 1:30 AM Monday in China, which is 12:30 PM Eastern Sunday.

Wednesday  4 December  2013  / Hour 4, Block D: Sohrab Ahmari, WSJ, in re:  An Iranian Insider's View of the Geneva Deal

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Music

Hour 1:  House of Flying Daggers. Day after Tomorrow.

Hour 2:  Lord of the Rings: Return of the King.  Kundun.  Apocalypse Now: Redux.

Hour 3:  Last Samurai. Air Force One.  Miami Vice.

Hour 4:  Ides of March.  Michael Clayton. Green Zone.