The John Batchelor Show

Wednesday 8 April 2015

Air Date: 
April 08, 2015

Photo, left: Russia in Space – The Past Explained, The Future Explored by Anatoly Zak; Apogee Prime; Burlington, Ontario, Canada.
Get this book!
This is an impressive, artfully done and seminal masterpiece. The 316-page, large format volume is a visual feast of information, written by an expert on Russia’s earliest vision of its human spaceflight initiatives in the 1960s right up to the present – and a peek into future plans.
Anatoly Zak is a writer and illustrator, specializing in the history of space exploration. A native of Russia, he attended the School of Journalism at Moscow State University.
Now in the United States, Zak earned a journalism degree from Syracuse University’s Newhouse School of Public Communications. Also, he’s publisher of RussianSpaceWeb.com, a newsy reservoir of historical information, photography and imagery on space activities of the former USSR and what’s going on today.
In addition to writing and illustrating this book, Zak personally designed and laid out each of its pages, making use of Soviet and Russian blueprints.
This is a well-written book. Moreover, you can sense Zak’s passion throughout in producing this striking work of art and prose. He got me right from the start, on page 3, talking about the Soviet Union’s collapse and near death – but citing Bob Dylan: “When you think that you’ve lost everything, you find out you can always lose a little more.”
From the creation of the Russian space agency, troubles on Mir, work on the International Space Station to docking and rendezvous systems, Mars mission scenarios and future lunar base planning – this is a tour-de-force of information, all in one place. In addition, there’s a great reference section and handy chronology of key events that influenced Russian strategy in human spaceflight.
Btw: A huge tip of the helmet visor goes to Apogee Prime for producing this grand book.
In the book’s afterword, I found Zak’s narrative quite telling. “Half a century after [Yuri] Gagarin’s triumphant space flight, the Russian human space program was seeking a direction,” he writes. The author then adds: “Unfortunately NASA, which historically provided the most powerful stimulus to Russian space planning, was also delivering a mixed message” in terms of a long-term plan for human space exploration.
This book achieves its goal, in my view, of spotlighting the technical know-how and hardware brought into being by Russian space engineers – an appraisal that underscores the outlook that major space powers — working together — can forge a new dynamic in exploring outer space.
For more information on this book, go to: http://www.apogeeprime.com/prime/bookpages/9781926837253.html  ---by Leonard David
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Co-hosts:  Gordon Chang, Forbes.com, & Dr. David M. Livingston, The Space Show.
Hour One
Wednesday  8 April 2015/ Hour 1, Block A: Scott Harold,  RAND Center for Asia Pacific Policy, in re:  India's defence minister in Beijing on annual defense dialogue, incl Chinese incursions into India and the southern seas.  Indian Ocean Basin: one of many very contentious issues betwixt the two.  Thought that China will surround India, put operational ships in the Indian Ocean; and China's relations with Indian neighbors, esp Pakistan (China is selling subs to them) & smaller – Sri Lanka.   India's Arihont sub will soonest start sea trials; China will try to even the score with subs to Islamabad.  Pakistan's sponsorship of terrorism inside India, also the possibility of a nuclear exchange.  Moscow sees India as a major market for its defense industries; China wonders where those will be used?  Unlikely that there'll  be a grand strategic triad, but they help spell the BRICs.  If Beijing avoided irritating New Delhi, the US could be out of the picture; but since China has decided to give India a hard time, the US is an important component.  Note US-India-Japan & US-India-Australia amities.  China sells subs to Pakistan  - to encircle India.  Russian press: China's nuclear attack subs
Wednesday  8 April 2015/ Hour 1, Block B:  Lisa Curtis, Heritage, in re:  Just back from Sri Lanka, with its democratic election:  bit f a lesson to China,, as the previous govt was cozying up to Beijing with investment, Chinese subs' paying port visits, et al. In early Jan, a Party minister broke away to restore democracy and reorient Sri Lanka's foreign policy back toward India. The new port city project with China probably will continue, but perhaps the current SL govt will back off from military cooperation with China.  SL needs Chinese infrastructure investment, but the mil component much alarmed India. China now speaking of "trilateral cooperation."  PM Modi also paying much more attention to SL, Nepal, and other adjacent neighbors. He made the first Indian PM's bilateral visit to SL in 30 years.
Africa's population heading to one billion; India's population to be much larger than China's in a decade or two.
Wednesday  8 April 2015/ Hour 1, Block C: Anatoly Zak, RussianSpaceWeb.com, and author, Russia in Space, in re: Vostochny, world's largest spaceport, by Roscosmos.  Big plans for the Twenty-first Century in eastern Siberia 9actually, the Russian Far East). The Russian space industry is concentrated in Western Russia, usu west of the Urals. Have to transport rockets to launch place – used to be Kazakhstan, but now that's not relevant since Baikonur is increasingly out of touch.  Have to carry huge-diameter rockets by rail – and it's five times worse in the Russian Far East. It’s not just launch pads; also railway lines, assembly bldgs, support infrastructure, et al., all to be dvpd from zero.  Complex.  Unlikely to be launched by the end of 2016m, but so what? That's not a real problem.    The launch sites in future: one for Soyuz; one for Angara (having two launch pads, A and B); one for the big unnamed rocket. Odd that they’re even bldg the Soyuz pad, it; a political mess; and need to free that labor in order to bld the next site. Work force is too small, have to hire workers from thousands of miles away and build homes for them.  Russia is bldg the Rover landing site? on Mars; a fine irony. Scheduled for 2018 (mas o menos) launch.  Landing for M4, but the gekkos didn’t survive? Neither did some of the plant spores, mice. plan to launch into the radiation belt 1,000 km above Earth's surface.   ESA-Roscosmos project (no USA).
Wednesday  8 April 2015/ Hour 1, Block D: Christian Whiton,  Hamilton Foundation and author of Smart Power, in re:  Rand Paul's foreign policy is a lot like Pres Obama's –he's a self-styled noninterventionist, translated to isolationist. He blames the US for creating ISIS – US "intervention" in the Ian-Iraq war.  "Tweaking Putin" led to Ukraine; says Iran is not a national security threat. . . .US foreign policy in Asia and Iran.  All the GOP candidates are not having a discussion on Xi Jinping, or China in the South China Sea, or India, or Africa.  We do know what Hillary Clinton thinks about foreign policy, whereas the Republicans are running on hope and change.  She went to China and threw human rights under the bus. Instead, talk about climate crisis, economic crisis, and _.  Note that we pushed a blind dissident out of our Beijing embassy.  In 2010, she uttered some stirring words about China in the South China Sea – at least she has something of a record, which the GOP currently does not have. 
Hour Two
Wednesday  8 April 2015/ Hour 2, Block A: Phelim Kine, deputy director, Asia Division, Human Rights Watch, in re: Dozens of Chinese taxi-drivers drink chemicals in mass suicide. More than 30 taxi drivers from Heilongjiang Province took the train to the capital, begged for redress, were denied, and took poison in order to die. Staggering desperation. This is widely experienced across China: the problem of a broken, politicized court system in which its impossible for weaker or poorer players to get anything like justice These men were driven to the wall and in desperation and rage took the most extreme defiance of the state. Dispute resolution among people and heir govt. Beijing is experienced at browbeating and bludgeoning.  The inability of the political system to solve even basic issues.  The judicial system has decent criminal and civil procedure law; but the CCP doesn’t believe in aw, so there's no rule of law and no speedy resolution of disputes.  These desperate men showed how broken the system is.  Despite a most coercive political system, so many human rights lawyers and other occupations – heroic.  If this happened in New York, it'd be a deeply shocking condemnation of state and city govt.  "I happened to witness a self-immolation in Beijing with hundreds and hundreds of onlookers, all with mobile phones for video and photos, yet it was never reported by the state media."  Recall: there's only state media in China. 
Wednesday  8 April 2015/ Hour 2, Block B: Julia Famularo, research affiliate at Project 2049 Institute, in re: Julia's report on Xinjiang released several hours ago.  The atheist Communist Party demands devotion, and requires that all be dependent on the Party for economic largesse, infrastructure, social structure.  Cannot let Tibetan Buddhists practice their extremely peaceful religion without harsh, sometimes lethal, interference.   Beijing people have a materialistic vie f history; yet despite decades of their effort, the CC policies have not succeeded. A moment of self-reflection among the officials. Apparently not much, but a bit of it surfacing at the recent national Party meetings.  there exist some progressive voices in the Party, but with hardliner like Xi in charge, they won't be heard. 
The 2015 religious regulations promulgated in Xinjiang; trying to claim that certain normal behaviors (growing a beard, wearing a headscarf) are tied to "three evils": ethnic separatism, religious extremism and terrorism. Julia's report on Xinjiang released hours ago
Wednesday  8 April 2015/ Hour 2, Block C: Steven Herman, VOA Asia, in re: Thailand’s Martial Rule 
Gen. Prayuth tightens his grip on the country. Also: big political trouble brewing in Malaysia (35 million people)-- partly thanks to a scandal involving submarines, blackmail, sex and murder. In his widely read blog, Mr Mahathir waded into previously taboo territory in calling for the truth to be revealed in a sensational scandal linked to Mr Najib that concerned alleged corruption in a submarine purchase and the still-unexplained 2006 murder of a Mongolian woman, French submarine maker in early 2000s, $142 paid to a shell company; and the Mongolian mistress of PM's close friend, who demanded money as translator for the deal; so they shot her and blew her up with plastique. Blog posting: "I'm nearly 90 but have all my faculties and we need to investigate the murder around the billion-dollar submarines." The wheels may be coming off with strict application of sedition laws: rounding up journalists, cartoonists, anyone who questions governance in Malaysia.  Najib won in 2013 b/c of gerrymandering.  Falling oil prices (Malaysia is the only net oil exporter in the region), the ringgit has sunk 18% vs the dollar, and the stock market is down 15% over a year.   Thailand: martial law was lifted so Thais and the intl community would celebrate; but invoked Article 44 of the Interim Charter, which gives Prayuth Chanocha absolute powers.  "If you’re not a troublemaker, you have nothing to worry about."  -- oh great.  Burma (150 million people) : Regs suddenly make Aung San Suu Kyu unable to run for presidency because her sons are now foreign nationals.  A waft of instability. Pres Obama's policy has largely failed the democracy movement in Burma. . . .   Rakine State with Muslim Rahingya. 
Wednesday  8 April 2015/ Hour 2, Block D:  Aaron Back, WSJ Hong Kong, in re: Chinese Defaults Head Into the Cloud  The struggling restaurateur-turned-technology startup Cloud Live Technology became China’s first domestic bond issuer to miss a principal payment. Bigger bond market tests lie ahead. Spicy, Hunan-style restaurant chain morphed into Cloud Live software firm; defaulted on Tuesday on payment on principal and interest; this is the first bond default in the PRC of principal.  Case to let it fail: it has a unique, absurd story: restaurant chain ran into trouble when govt officials were forbidden to have lavish dinners, so became Cloud Live, which boosted the stock. But the chairman left China in October never to return.  However, Beijing is terrified that people will not trust the domestic bond mkt and so the govt can’t use that to shore up the huge, failing economy of state-owned operations that are slated to be salvaged by new, govt-issued bonds.  Will convert debt into bonds and sell to the public. There's an official audit of all govt debts now under way. Where provinces dvpd hotels and the like: eligible for default.
Hour Three
Wednesday  8 April 2015/ Hour 3, Block A:  Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor; in re: Paul Jabs at GOP to Make 2016 Case  Sen. Rand Paul formally announced his campaign for president, hoping to build on his libertarian-leaning brand of conservatism. Where Father, Son Differ | Rand Paul at a Glance
Rolling Stone fails to take full responsibility for its actions    Should there have been firings at Rolling Stone? The Rolling Stone fiasco, as it's is a well-know Democratic attack machine; we can expect it to strike often in the new cycle:
Wednesday  8 April 2015/ Hour 3, Block B: Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor; in re:  http://www.cjr.org/first_person/david_folkenflik_rolling_stone.php
Wednesday  8 April 2015/ Hour 3, Block C: Michael Ledeen, FDD, in re:  http://pjmedia.com/michaelledeen/2015/04/06/now-what/
Wednesday  8 April 2015/ Hour 3, Block D: Ferdinando Giugliano, FT Economics Correspondent in London, in re: Spectre of Grexit back as cash runs out  The going will be hard for Athens, no matter which way it turns
Hour Four
Wednesday  8 April 2015/ Hour 4, Block A: Phillip Bobbitt, The Garments of Court and Palace: Machiavelli and the World That He Made (1 of 4)
Wednesday  8 April 2015/ Hour 4, Block B: Phillip Bobbitt, The Garments of Court and Palace: Machiavelli and the World That He Made (2 of 4)
Wednesday  8 April 2015/ Hour 4, Block C: Phillip Bobbitt, The Garments of Court and Palace: Machiavelli and the World That He Made (3 of 4)
Wednesday  8 April 2015/ Hour 4, Block D: Phillip Bobbitt, The Garments of Court and Palace: Machiavelli and the World That He Made (4 of 4)
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