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JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
 
Co-host: Gordon Chang, Forbes.com & Daily Beast.
 
Hour One
Wednesday   9 November 2016 / Hour 1, Block A: Steve Yates, chairman of the Idaho Republican Party, CEO of D.C. International Advisory, and former advisor to Vice President Dick Cheney, on Trump's Asia policy; in re: A long night yesterday.  . . . Expressions of policy concerns anent Trump.  China: what's important will be Trump’s responses to Chinese deeds.  This is true of every incoming administration. Realty and the business of the day tend to overtake you. . . . The economic realities of what’s going on in China may [be of much consequence].   There’s a protocol for president and teams and interagency group to talk and thrash out how to do the transition, usu commence in Feb or March; you don’t get to real policy till the slots are filled in, by Congr approval.
I expect that the Adm highest priority will be economic situation.  His mild words last night notwithstanding, everyone expects him to be a tough negotiator. Rebalance; currency, terrorists, IPR; strengthening military and protection against cyber – all very high up.
Wednesday   9 November 2016 / Hour 1, Block B:  Sadanand Dhume, Wall Street Journal, in re: PM Modi has already spoken with Pres-elect Trump, is delighted: Trump will call jihadists by their accurate name; no more fiddling around with terrorists as Obama has done.  End of moratorium on dealing directly with radical Islam.
Also, India will expect Trump to back it up when it's forced to deal with Lashkar-i-Taiba and Pakistani-paid terrorist groups. India is glad that Trump probably won't continue sending Putin into an embrace with China.  Modi govt has bet heavily on closer ties with Washington; wants the US to prevent China's advance as a hegemonic power in the Far East. Since most Indian-Americans are registered Democrats, AEI calls this an opportunity for the GOP.  "India should swiftly invite Trump to visit the original Taj Mahal” (not the US gaming center).
Wednesday   9 November 2016 / Hour 1, Block C:  Mark Clifford, former editor-in-chief of the South China Morning Post and a Hong Kong resident since 1992, in re: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/nov/08/hundreds-silently-march-in-hong-kong-in-protest-at-beijing-meddling
Wednesday   9 November 2016 / Hour 1, Block D:  Hotel Mars, episode n. 
 
Hour Two
Wednesday   9 November 2016 / Hour 2, Block A:  Jim Holmes, Naval War College,  in re:  Trump intends to build a 350-ship Navy, which would be a big increase over what we have now (<280), which would still be a lean force.    . . . We have a dozen or fewer carrier strike groups; will we add more of them. Or more subs. Or what?  Currently having trouble with catapults and other gear in carrier strike groups. I'd advocate more attack subs to give us an asymmetric advantage over China.  With a smaller force, we have to write off other theaters – North Atlantic, et al. – in order to focus on China.  Is it more important to have better platforms, or large r quantity. China thinks quantity s quality.
Mix between numbers ad capability. No real formula for the right mix. Facing off against an opponent in his own back yard: need both.
J20 stealth fighter, Lockheed and Russians; flies a long distance to reach a US carrier battle group well into the Pacific.
 I think they fly out stealthily to fight against US AF tankers. 
USN : distributed lethality (threat to Chinese navy from all US platforms). Tomahawk missiles had range of hundreds of miles; it’s being rediscovered and must be replaced.
Wednesday   9 November 2016 / Hour 2, Block B:  Alan Tonelson, independent economic policy analyst who blogs at RealityChek and tweets at @AlanTonelson, on Trump and trade; in re:   Francis Rose in York CO, PA: his neighbors went to work in factories, incl Borg Warner & Harley Davidson;; then NAFTA came along and the factories moved overseas, leaving masses of unemployed people. 
There are hundreds, if not thousands, of York Counties all over the country; “offshoring happy trade policy.”  
When high-wage mfrg jobs vanish, creates downward economic pressure on all jobs in the region. 
Stunning irony of current politics: the Dems, presenting themselves as he champions of workers, are completely tone-deaf.  I very much like the potential here, and t he fact that the intl chattering classes  have received such a sharp comeuppance. Haunting, however:  who is gin got fi those hundreds of cabinet and sub-cabinet jobs, who assure that what a president directs is actually carried out? A shortage of Trumpian academics and pols to fill the jobs.
Require higher US content, to export more than import, and similar practices that are requisite all over the world except here in the US.  The world’s biggest single natl mkt. We have the wallet; we lack the will.
Tariffs have a purpose: to lure production back, and focus on high-value mfrg. We cant compete with the world’s Chinas and Mexico, esp in regard to regulation.  [?]
Wednesday   9 November 2016 / Hour 2, Block C:  Aaron Klein, Breitbart Middle East bureau chief, in re:  Last night was at Trump Tower, the Hilton, and back:  I work for Breitbart, not the Trump campaign, so I’ve been reporting for the last few weeks. This has sent shock waves through the US political establishment and around the world; few saw it coming.
Egypt is thrilled: Pres el Sisi has been urging a Trump victory for months – not surprising in view of Mrs Clinton’s support for the Muslim Brotherhood. A good day for Israel, since many of the [extreme problems] were created under Obama – consider Libya; and ISIS and Hezb on northern border, and ISIS and jihadists on southern border, much of this created or exacerbated under Secy Clinton. 
One thing she did then bragged about: she called Bibi Netanyahu to berate him for a solid 43 minutes on the phone – not about Palestinians or ISIS, nor the PA refusal even to jump-start negotiations; rather, to lecture him about Jewish construction of homes in already-Jewish communities, and after Israel had offered to work with Palestinians on the matter and been refused.
What does this mean? Everything changes today, We’ll see where the cards fall in coming days or weeks; seems like a good thing for Israel.
Talk that the Obama Adm was waiting till the election to talk to the UN about Israeli buildings, or interfere in Israeli politics. Does the president still intend to move on these, or to put the plans on the shelf?  Heard of these: boycotts, and negotiations leading to a Palestinian state – but no chance of momentum toward the latter in the remaining few weeks, so not much utility in Obama imposing a UN framework when Trump seems to have very different policies.
There are even talks now that the US might move its embassy from TLV to Jerusalem, or at least recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.
Right now, State can't distinguish between who's the victim and who's the aggressor. Neither Obama nor Clinton will be around after mid-January.
I think that the Israeli govt is very happy with this decision: on security and safety, Obama has been a disaster, and his Iran deal, also. Add this to el Sisi’s fondness for the new Adm (“Hillary was a puppet for the Ikhwan”)  Look for a war on radical Islamists; may inspire real freedom movements throughout the Middle East. 
Wednesday   9 November 2016 / Hour 2, Block D: Sebastian v Gorka, Marine Corps University, in re: Al Baghdadi’s stirring speech at Mosul: No defeat! Pres-elect Trump will not deal with this threat in a piecemeal fashion, nibble at the edges.  It's not about one individual group or its leadership; it’s about the ideology, The center of gravity isn't Raffah or Mosul – it's the brand of jihadism, specifically through proxy forces, such as the Sunnis of he region. Expect a full-throated approach.
Trump: Secy of DHS or CT advisor to the new president, predict the jettisoning of “countering violent extremism”  or terrorism results from “upstream factors or local grievances.”   The connective tissue is he ideology religiously fueled, being jihadism.   We've now arrested or killed 125 ISIS jihadists within the US.   Expect an operationally clearer expression of what were the stump-speech attitudes toward the “Muslim ban.”  Instead of a religious test - impossible to implement – but a question of refugees from active war zones, where we know ISIS has been inserting operatives - will be treated differently: either a temporary ban, or special vetting. 
Bill Roggio’s and Tom Joscelyn’s work will be more fully integrated into the new administration.
This broadcast and podcast are listened to by our enemies. What to say to them? 
—As someone who met with Mr Trump, I can report a simple msg: we've elected a man who understands viscerally that we are at war, and he sees himself as a wartime president who will win. Our foes will rapidly understand that in January.
 
Hour Three
Wednesday   9 November 2016 / Hour 3, Block A:  Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor; in re:
Wednesday   9 November 2016 / Hour 3, Block B:  Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor; in re:
Wednesday   9 November 2016 / Hour 3, Block C:  Dr Lara M Brown, George Washington University, in re:
Wednesday   9 November 2016 / Hour 3, Block D: Francis Rose, NationalDefenseWeek.com (WMAL) and francisrose.com, and now Channel 7 in Washington; and Channel 8 daily: "Government matters";  in re:
Hour Four
Wednesday   9 November 2016 / Hour 4, Block A:  Bernard Weinstein, Maguire Energy Institute, Southern Methodist University, and George W. Bush Institute Fellow, in re: Pipelines, incl in North Dakota.  Massachusetts just banned a pipeline that would have brought $2 nat gas from the US, will pay $25 to import from overseas. EPA and clean power plants: meaning is Pres Obama’s war against coal makes it so expensive that no one will do it). Early in the Trump Adm we’ll see an effort tot repeal Clean Power Plant. Not troll back all envtl regulation; just a more reasoned variety of regulation. There’s not  a lot that the WH or Congress can do to revive the coal industry – half f the problem is regulations, the other half is cheap nat gas; we’ve shuttered about half of he industry. What we can do is increase the export.   China blds a new coal plant every week; India blds one every two weeks.  Environmentalists claim the even coal rains rolling through a region causes damage; this is excessive.  The US has the cheapest [good] coal in the world.  I hope that Trump and his advisors have a re-think about NAFTA and global trade. Not throw up barriers but somehow compensate the losers. 
Fracking:  I doubt New York State will remove the fracking ban; eke in Vermont and Maryland.  Its pickup will ultimately depend on the price of oil: until it goes up significantly, fracking won’t be much of an issue. We have thousands of wells drilled but not competed. Since it’s a global commodity, not much we can do about price except keep our own production not too expensive.  
Wednesday   9 November 2016 / Hour 4, Block B:  Bernard Weinstein, Maguire Energy Institute, Southern Methodist University, and George W. Bush Institute Fellow (2 of 2)
Wednesday   9 November 2016 / Hour 4, Block C: Timon McPhearson, chairman, environmental studies & director of the Urban Ecology Lab, The New School, and visiting research scientist at the Cary Institute for Ecosystem Studies; in re:   “Scientists must have a say in the future of cities"  This week, the United Nations' third major global cities conference, Habitat III, convenes in Quito, Ecuador. Held every 20 years, this multilateral meeting will adopt a global framework for making cities more sustainable — the New Urban Agenda (NUA). Sadly, science was largely absent from the drafting process of the NUA. By contrast, expert evidence guided the Paris climate deal, the 2015 Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the UN's 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and its Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).  http://www.nature.com/news/scientists-must-have-a-say-in-the-future-of-cities-1.20760  (1 of 2)
Wednesday   9 November 2016 / Hour 4, Block D:   Timon McPhearson, chairman, environmental studies & director of the Urban Ecology Lab, The New School, and visiting research scientist at the Cary Institute for Ecosystem Studies; in re:   “Scientists must have a say in the future of cities"  This week, the United Nations' third major global cities conference, Habitat III, convenes in Quito, Ecuador. Held every 20 years, this multilateral meeting will adopt a global framework for making cities more sustainable — the New Urban Agenda (NUA). Sadly, science was largely absent from the drafting process of the NUA. By contrast, expert evidence guided the Paris climate deal, the 2015 Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the UN's 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and its Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).  http://www.nature.com/news/scientists-must-have-a-say-in-the-future-of-cities-1.20760  (2 of 2)
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