Photo, above: First were floods, now a colossal fire threatens the construction of the new Russian space port, Vostochny. Multiple sources of forest fires in the Amur Region (known in Russian as Amurskaya Oblast) were first reported on April 28 by the web site of the independent environmental organization Russian Greenpeace. Citing satellite imagery, the report called it the biggest fire in Russia, covering 109,000 hectares. No federal agency confirmed or warned about the situation at the time, Russian Greenpeace said.

On April 30, the local Zeiskie Ogni newspaper reported that the previous evening, the head of the launch site construction, Konstantin Chmarov, arrived at the nearby city of Svobodny and chaired an emergency teleconference with regional leaders and local representatives of the Emergency Situation Agency, MChS.

According to the publication, four big fires were raging in the Svobodny district threatening the Iversky Forest Reserve and the Vostochny launch site. At least three people were reported killed fighting the blaze, the newspaper reported.  Chmarov reportedly characterized the fire-fighting effort in the region as "chaos." Fueled by hot weather and strong winds, the fire approached the airport in Svobodny and was also moving toward Vostochny. In the meantime, satellite images showed heavy smoke blanketing the future space center.

JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW

Co-host: Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents.

Hour One

Thursday  1 May  2014 / Hour 1, Block A:  Francis Rose, Federal News Radio, in re:  Many Obamacare enrollees haven't paid their premiums yet - why not? Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius said as much herself: "You are not fully enrolled [in Obamacare] until you pay your premium." Yet data collected by the Republican-led House Energy and Commerce Committee shows that as of April 15, just 67 percent of enrollees in the federally-run Obamacare marketplace had paid their first month's premiums.

There are a variety of factors that explain why more than 30 percent of enrollees have yet to pay. To begin with, it's worth noting that millions of Americans waited until the final weeks and days of the open enrollment period (which closed on March 31) to sign up for Obamacare. Many were allowed to finish the enrollment process after March 31, due to the flexibility the Obama administration granted. Consequently, many Americans on the new marketplace simply didn't owe any premiums by April 15.

Thursday  1 May  2014 / Hour 1, Block B: Terry Anderson, PERC, in re:  Time to Consider Privatization of Federal Lands 

Thursday  1 May  2014 / Hour 1, Block C: Robert Zimmerman, behindtheblack.com, in re: A gigantic forest fire threatens Russia’s new spaceport under construction in Vostochny.

[Spaceport construction chief Konstantin] Chmarov reportedly characterized the fire-fighting effort in the region as “chaos.” Fueled by hot weather and strong winds, the fire approached the airport in Svobodny and was also moving toward Vostochny. In the meantime, satellite images showed heavy smoke blanketing the future space center.  The Putin government has been giving the completion of this spaceport a high priority. Having it burn down before completion is not what they want.

SpaceX has won an injunction from a federal judge, preventing ULA from buying any further Russian engines.  Federal Claims Court Judge Susan Braden said her preliminary injunction was warranted because of the possibility that United Launch Alliance’s purchase of Russian-made engines might run afoul of the sanctions. NBC News’ past coverage of the issue was cited in Braden’s ruling.  Wednesday’s injunction prohibits any future purchases or payments by the Air Force or United Launch Alliance to NPO Energomash, unless and until the Treasury Department or the Commerce Department determines that the deal doesn’t run counter to the U.S. sanctions against Russian officials. Braden stressed that her ruling does not affect previous payments to the Russians, or purchase orders that have already been placed. United Launch Alliance says it already has some of the engines on hand.

This injunction is not directed specifically at the Air Force’s bulk buy from ULA, nor does it address the cartel-like nature of the ULA monopoly for Air Force launches that SpaceX is challenging. However, it does put a serious crimp, if temporary, on the use of Lockheed Martin’s Atlas 5 rocket, which depends on the engine for all its launches. Though the company has engines in stock, they will quickly run out with no way to immediately replace them.

A proposed House bill would forbid use of Russian rocket engines in launching any American military payloads. This bill is being put forth partly because of the Ukrainian situation and partly to support SpaceX’s effort to break the ULA Atlas/Delta monopoly on military launches. Whether it makes any sense or not is of course beside the point.  Meanwhile, the State Department has expanded the sanctions on satellite exports to Russia, which might threaten some future commercial Proton launches. Both actions suggest that Elon Musk’s political clout is growing. Obviously his company’s concerns are not the prime motivation behind these decisions, but we should note that both actions hurt his direct competitors, while doing little harm to SpaceX.

More delays seen in the completion of a new and critical module to the Russian portion of ISS.

The delays have nothing to do with the Ukraine and everything to do with poor quality control in the Russian company building the module.  This quote stood out, however:  With its central position in the architecture of the Russian segment, the MLM’s troubles also stall the launch of all subsequent Russian components of the station, including the Node Module, UM, (already under construction) and the NEM laboratory and power supply module, whose full-scale development started in 2012. Given such a prolonged delay, combined with worsening political relations between Russia and its partners in the ISS project, the questions were raised whether the MLM module and the successive components of the Russian segment could be grounded until the assembly of the new all-Russian station in the post-ISS era. Under such a scenario, the troubled spacecraft could play a role of an early hub for the future orbital outpost.

If the Russians get enough modules built to launch their own station, I expect them to do it and cut their ties with ISS.

SpaceX has released video of its Falcon 9 first stage splashing down vertically in the ocean.

The video is not very good, but at one point you can clearly see for a flash that the first stage is vertical and appears to be hovering above the water. For decades, engineers and managers in the aerospace industry have said that returning a first stage vertically made no sense. Elon Musk insisted that SpaceX try. It appears he and his company are now going to prove that everyone else was wrong about this.

Thursday  1 May  2014 / Hour 1, Block D: Daniel Henninger, WSJ, WONDER LAND , in re: Sotomayor's Race Dissent

Hour Two

Thursday  1 May  2014 / Hour 2, Block A: David Schenker, Washington Institute, in re: Lebanese presidential race. Assad reelection.  Lebanon's fragmentation looks as though it might be a copy of Syria, early stage. Lebanon has % Shi'a, 34% Sunni, the rest Druze and Christian, et al.. Now a million more Sunni have come into Lebanon from the Syrian war.   The presidency used to be powerful, is no longer.  Head of Lebanese central bank is "incredibly impressive" – has kept this precarious economy afloat and growing for a decade.  Half a dozen other candidates, incl Walid Jumblatt.  Has Nasrallah paid a price for committing Hezbollah to Assad in Syria?  Yes: he's lost the entie\re Sunni Muslim world.  However, he does have a Lebanese constituency, paints this as an existential issue for Shi'a in Lebanon  - "if Assad loses, all Shi'a will be slaughtered." 

Thursday  1 May  2014 / Hour 2, Block B: Amb Dennis Ross, William Davidson Distinguished Fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, in re: Putin, Syria, peace process, Iran. Soft power vs. hard power vs. smart power – the notion that one can succeed in a globalized world where info moves in nanoseconds.  In a world where actors use hard power, we need to use soft power plus backed by a coercive capacity: i.e., needs to be backed by hard power.  Example is Russia in Ukraine.  US?  We're not competitive enough. If we focus on soft power and intl norms while others don’t, we'll have a problem What can we do to send the msg that we can compete?  What the Obama Adm has done in beginning to send assistance to certain groups in Syria is a necessary but insufficient step. Need more supply, and change the balance of power on the ground by providing more lethal assistance – will raise the cost to Iran and also to Russia.  Russians not at all reluctant to use coercive methods – in Ukraine: the outcome will be acceptable to them or they'll just destabilize the place and maybe go n directly. In Syria: We don’t care how badly Assad behaves, he's our friend.   When Saudis (very troubled by Russians in Syria) pay for weapons to the opposition, they send a clear message to Russia.  Disturbing that Abu Mazen didn't give us a heads-up on his new alliance with Hamas – he pointed out that he doesn’t care a whisker what the US thinks. 

Thursday  1 May  2014 / Hour 2, Block C: 
Michael Rubin, former Pentagon & author, Dancing with the Devil: The Perils of Engagement; in re: _ saying it wasn;t the Supreme Leader who's won concessions fro the US; rather, Iran is said to be too strong to attack and eh US has no choice but to negotiate.  In fact, the real question is, are we talking with anyone who has the power to do what’s agreed?  The IRGC laughs at he Iranian foreign ministry's talks with the US.  It was April 1988 when the US last had a military engagement with Iran – the US was mightily annoyed and sank most of the Iranian navy, leading to a few years of tranquillity.  In fact you can join the IRGC from age eight and through grad school, then for life. The shaved-head protest:  lots of Iranians are shaving their head in solidarity with the political prisoners condemned to death – and the US ignores this rather than have to deal with such an irritating factor.  Pres Obama doesn’t abide by his red lines; OK. But in the Persian Gulf, when they hear "pivot to Asia," they hear the former British PM Harold Wilson, withdrawing from everything east of Suez.   In other words, the Americans are headlong in retreat. Oman has just given a military base to Iran and there Iranian navy just had a pot call at an Omani port.  Making the best of a very bad situation.   You can always make a deal if you’re willing to give up anything to make the deal. The Saudis and Gulfies aren’t worried about Iran's cheating on the deal  there are loopholes to drive a truck through.  Worry: Iran sent as UN ambassador a fellow who was central in the 444 days of American prisoners – said to have been Rouhani throwing a bone to the IRGC – i.e., he's not in control.  Iran's economy shrank substantially, so the US offered enormous blandishments to get it to agree to an agreement with loopholes big enough to drive a truck through.  [In sum: the US has basically lost.]  So many Iranian negotiators have held up the North Korean model as successful diplomacy. 

Thursday  1 May  2014 / Hour 2, Block D: Lawrence J. Haas, Senior Fellow for U.S. Foreign Policy at the American Foreign Policy Council; in re: US Policy toward Middle East;  Israeli-Palestinian peace; John Kerry.  The Palestinian-Israeli peace effort is a small brush fire compared to the raging flames of Syria, Iran, Ukraine, et al.  Whether the current agreement holds or fails, doesn’t matter: in any case, we don’t have the essentials for peace, since ht Palestinian leadership refuses to acknowledge the existence of the state of Israel, continues to incite extreme anti-Jewish hatred, and more, the agreements and discussions don’t matter.  Kerry's comment on Apartheid:   part of a pattern  of unbalanced pressure on Israel since 2009; "Palestinian leadership for its own survival has to be harder than Washington is."  Forget peace any time soon.   Has the success of the Kremlin in Ukraine, its undermining of the govt there, affect the PA, Abbas, or Hamas?  Sure – when they see that we just lightly slap Putin n the wrist rather than use sanctions that bite, we give license to all sorts of outlandish forces as they think the US won’t take offense or force its adversaries to pay a price for [wickedness.]  "Barack Obama is no one to fear" as our adversaries smile and our allies [tremble.]"

Hour Three

Thursday  1 May  2014 / Hour 3, Block A: Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents, in re: 1938 9 to 10 November: Kristallnacht, Pogramnacht [pron: pa-grahm-nacht]. Pillaging and brutality throughout all Germany – a slow-motion pogram of brutality, devastation, horrendous violence, sexual and lethal. Organized to look spontaneous – but local officials with gangs of thugs set fire to synagogues, beat o=up Jews in their homes. Many Jews were killed even before.  History said that  about 300 synagogues were destroyed; in fact, 1,300 were, plus those in Austria and elsewhere.  many of these places had no one left to tell the story, so the Conference of Presidents has published eight encyclopedic volumes to document the events  at GermanSynagogues.com  The House Foreign Affairs Committee with a high Bundestag representative and 20 young non-Jewish students attending held a commemoration. MH: I went to the town my father was from, where my grandfather had installed the stained-glass windows and was the last to pray, an hour before the destruction.   A Syrian Arab, Muslim, has devoted her life to this documentation. It’s extremely moving.  Israel is the only nation [besides China?} where the original inhabitants  began living there 5,000 years ago.

Thursday  1 May  2014 / Hour 3, Block B: Pinhas Inbari, Arab affairs correspondent & Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs; in re: Fatah-Hamas unity.Cannot exclude hat a new govt will be formed, but will it change anything meaningful?  Doubt it. Example: elections Hamas says it considers running for president; thus Maaschal will be a candidate to take over the West Bank as well as Gaza – frightening Fatah.  We don’t see any forward motion by Fatah to join Hamas, even to negotiate.  "A headline without a govt."  Both govts collapsed after their elections. In fact, even Palestinians were astonished by Abu Mazen's announcement.  Fatah delegation . . . PA doesn’t recognize the Hamas govt in Gaza.  Perhaps a Gazan govt to normalize relations with Egypt. 

Thursday  1 May  2014 / Hour 3, Block C: Richard A Epstein, Hoover Institution, Chicago Law, in re:   Affirmative action is a tough and divisive issue. That’s the takeaway from the Supreme Court case of Schuette v. BAMN. At issue in Schuette was an amendment to the Michigan constitution, adopted as Proposition 2 by popular referendum in 2006. The vote was 58 to 42 percent in favor. It states that universities in Michigan “shall not discriminate against, or grant preferential treatment to, any individual or group on the basis of race, sex, color, ethnicity, or national origin.” The case raises an important question: What is the proper political and/or constitutional response to affirmative action? Put another way, who has the final say on affirmative action in public institutions, the people or the courts? (1 of 2)

Thursday  1 May  2014 / Hour 3, Block D:  Richard A Epstein, Hoover Institution, Chicago Law, in re: “The people, not the courts, have the final say on race-based admissions programs at public universities.” Affirmative action is a tough and divisive issue. That’s the takeaway from the Supreme Court case of Schuette v. BAMN. At issue in Schuette was an amendment to the Michigan constitution, adopted as Proposition 2 by popular referendum in 2006. The vote was 58 to 42 percent in favor. It states that universities in Michigan “shall not discriminate against, or grant preferential treatment to, any individual or group on the basis of race, sex, color, ethnicity, or national origin.” The case raises an important question: What is the proper political and/or constitutional response to affirmative action? Put another way, who has the final say on affirmative action in public institutions, the people or the courts? 

One Clause, Three Interpretations   The issue teed up in Schuette was whether this explicit guarantee of racial neutrality counted as a violation of the Fourteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution, which dictates that no person be denied Equal Protection of the Laws. The Supreme Court did not come to any definite resolution on the matter. Justice Kennedy writing for a plurality of himself, Chief Justice Roberts, and Justice Alito took the measured view that the people by constitutional referendum could reverse a previous decision made by the Board of Regents of the University of Michigan to allow the limited use of race-based preferences upheld in Grutter v. Bollinger in 2003, a case whose validity they did not revisit. A solo decision by Justice Breyer offered a more guarded defense of the same position.  The far more aggressive position of . . .   (2 of 2)

Hour Four

Thursday  1 May  2014 / Hour 4, Block A: Seb Gorka, FDD, Natl Defense University, in re: What the Russian Ambassador DIDN'T Say.

Thursday  1 May  2014 / Hour 4, Block B: Clyde Haberman, NYT, in re:  The latest Retro Report, "Nuclear Power's Promise and Peril," is now available on NYTimes.com and I thought it might be of interest to you.  (film’s accompanying essay)  Nuclear power seemed to hold the key to an unlimited future, but the disaster at Pennsylvania's Three-Mile Island plant fueled wide public misgivings about nuclear power that essentially halted the US nuclear power program.  Since then, the green fossil-fuel alternative holds increasing allure, but the disaster at Fukushima may once again have raised popular opinion against nuclear power. The report:  \d

Thursday  1 May  2014 / Hour 4, Block C: Mary Anastasia O'Grady, WSJ, in re:  Mexico's Anti-Market Antitrust Law

Thursday  1 May  2014 / Hour 4, Block D: Bill Whalen, Hoover &  Daily Caller (DC), in re: How Chelsea Clinton's Baby Will Pave the Way for Hilary 2016

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Music

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