Map, above: Religious groups in Lebanon.

Lebanon goes to the polls on June 7 in a legislative election contested by two coalitions whose rivalry has dominated national politics since the 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri. Independent politicians will also run.
The two blocs are the anti-Syrian "March 14" alliance, led by Sunni politician Saad al-Hariri, and the rival "March 8" coalition, including Hezbollah, the Shiite opposition group that has a powerful military group.

From al Arabiya - Its main components are:

MARCH 14 ALLIANCE

FUTURE MOVEMENT- SAAD AL-HARIRI

PROGRESSIVE SOCIALIST PARTY- WALID JUMBLATT  (Druse)

LEBANESE FORCES- SAMIR GEAGEA

PHALANGE PARTY- AMIN GEMAYEL

MARCH 8 ALLIANCE

HEZBOLLAH- SAYYED HASSAN NASRALLAH

AMAL MOVEMENT- NABIH BERRI

FREE PATRIOTIC MOVEMENT- MICHEL AOUN

MARADA MOVEMENT- SULEIMAN FRANJIEH

INDEPENDENTS

NAJIB MIKATI

MICHEL AL-MURR

JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW

Co-host: Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents.

Hour One

Thursday 15  May  2014 / Hour 1, Block A: Paul Gregory, Hoover, and University of Houston, in re: Ukraine.   Citizens's voting; effect of the town fighting off Russian-sent forces.

Thursday 15  May  2014 / Hour 1, Block B: Daniel Henninger, WSJ, in re: Guest speakers at commencement ceremonies.

Thursday 15  May  2014 / Hour 1, Block C: Eric Hanushek, Hoover senior Fellow, and Paul Peterson, Hoover senior Fellow, in re: Educational ranks and standards. (1 of 2)

Thursday 15  May  2014 / Hour 1, Block D: Eric Hanushek, Hoover senior Fellow, and Paul Peterson, Hoover senior Fellow, in re: Educational ranks and standards. (2 of 2)

Hour Two

Thursday 15  May  2014 / Hour 2, Block A: Amb James Jeffrey, Washington Institute, in re:  Iran, Vienna negotiations. What do you think are the chances that the upcoming P5+1/ Iran negotiations will turn out well? Oh, fifty-fifty. It’s not a question of trust. And weaponzation is specifically a part of the IAEA discussion.  Need to have intrusive inspections. Pres Obama said: "Iran cannot have nuclear weapons."  Susan Rice says, "Unless you wait a year, cannot see if Iran breaks out.   Parchin, a military site: no indication that anyone, IAEA or other, will ever be allowed to inspect a military site in Iran.  . . .   We’re setting ourselves up for "what cannot be a good deal"; so we're just looking for a less-bad deal.  Iran is no longer the headline story in world affairs; Ukraine is. Has made it harder because Teheran looks at Ukraine and Syria thinks, "The US is doing nothing."

Thursday 15  May  2014 / Hour 2, Block B: Amb John Price (Mauritius, Seychelles and Comoros), Daily Beast, Fox News, in re:  Boko Haram;  radical Islam in Africa . Nigeria: 175 million people; Christian, animist and Islamic traditions. North and South always in open dispute.  Boko Haram: nationalist, jihadist, bombings, kidnappings, IEDs.  report that Mrs Clinton's Staet Dept refused to brand Boko Haram a terrorist organization.  Boko Haram began to be extremely brutal in 2009 with a new leader; it was the White House that refused. This Adm doesn't believe that there exists a global war of terror.   All began in 2002 when an imam built a madrasa and a mosque, with funds from ObL and Saudi and Qatar.  Christians are being massacred in many instances; it's taken the kidnapping, rape. and sale into slavery of 300 girl-children to get Europeans to notice, although France began to try a few years ago when la francophonie started being chewed up by al Qaeda in the Islamic Mahgreb. Nigeria unstable in Borno in the north, also now in Abuja.  Candidly, US policy has not been consistent unless the US has major economic interests.  Nigeria is unstable.  US declines to call any terrorist organization by its name because for political reasons Washington won't acknowledge that al Qaeda continues.  We should have been using drones in Niger; must be careful lest they kill the girls. Freeing them will not be easy. Without the light sweet crude of Nigeria, the economy of Europe is deeply troubled. 

Thursday 15  May  2014 / Hour 2, Block C: Ilan Berman, American Foreign Policy Council, in re: Erdogan is on his way out, facing challenges from with the Islamic camp in Turkey – authoritarian, but for survival.  His Party, the AKP, fights the Gulen movement; forces may be about evenly divided (Gulenists control the media; AKP has the arms of the state plus the Kurds).   Erdogan challenges – erases parts of? – the constitution. Reminiscent of Putin: vesting powers in a supercharged leader. Uptick in trade and dipl contact between Turkey and Israel, but at ground level, Middle Eastern opinion requires a publicly anti-Israel policy.  Mr Putin wants to seal a money relationship with Erdogan.  Erdogan has said all the right things to seem to be in solidarity with the West, but in reality, Turkey is heavily energy-dependent on Russia and will double its dependency in the next 13 years. Erdogan came in office speaking of smooth relations with all neighbors; now has 100% awful relations with absolutely all neighbors!   Mr Putin's Plan B?  Russia can enhance risky gas lines through Ukraine by adding another pipeline through Turkey.  . . . Erdogan frets that the current PM is a Gulenist – if Abdullah Gul becomes the next PM, Erdogan may be stuck in a powerless office – so he may now add powers to the presidency.  Nothing will rupture Moscow-Ankara relations faster than Moscow seeing Ankara carry water for NATO.

Thursday 15  May  2014 / Hour 2, Block D: Tony Badran, FDD, in re: Lebanese elections, Hezbollah,  Syria. Hezbollah participates in the Syrian civil war, in accord with instrux from its master, Iran.  Has a candidate: of the slew of current candidates available, all of htem are favorable to Hezbollah The leader  of the pack is the one Hezbollah trusts the most. Next, a governor (money-laundering). Third, a perpetual consensus candidate who's close to the Syrian regime. Michel Aoun thinks he'll be Hezbollah's candidate, but will not.   Also Hariri force commander.    Walid Jumblatt's bloc is the swing vote in the parliament; but since we’re going with a consensus candidate  . . .  he's pushing for Jean Kahwaji, a weakling.  US has been indirectly sharing intelligence with Hezbollah [ergo, Iran is getting US intell!] because US has defined as top priority the tiny Sunni extremist groups, turned a blind eye to Shia extremists, thus give intell to Lebanese armed forces, who share with Teheran. Riyadh is aware of this. 

Wikipedia: Possible candidates were: Amin Gemayel, Michel Aoun, Suleiman Frangieh, Jr., Samir Geagea, Jean Obeid, Riad Salameh, Jean Kahwaji, Boutros Harb, Robert Ghanem, Henri Helou, and Ziad Baroud. The Maronite Patriarch Beshara Raicould be influential in the decision.

Hour Three

Thursday 15  May  2014 / Hour 3, Block A: Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents, in re: Fourth recent major Russian delegation to Egypt. Everyone expects al Sisi to win.    IRGC operating  internationally.  Five US firms – all having US govt contacts at present - in Teheran at Iranian oil show negotiating long-term contracts. Can’t sign lest banks refuse, but are setting up details.  France arrested six jihadists who’ve been in Syria; more soon. French foreign minister in US this week spoke strongly: US and UK were wrong -  chem weapons deal was bad.  Operation Juniper Cobra 14.  Saudis criticizing P5+1 deal with Iran.  Al Qaeda and al Nusrah ISIS: took over Rakah – related to the Syrian oil sector.  Hav e infrastructure for terrorist  training, Look to see these people around the world, incl US.  Chlorine bombs:  14 instances when these were used: bought by Iran from China, used against rebels.  Marriage of PA and Hamas: Netanyahu said, "PA will then be responsible for every rocket that flies."When Martin Indyk left [no big loss. –ed.] "

Ex-Prime Minister Ehud Olmert Gets Six Years in Prison; Sentence Follows Conviction in Bribery Case in March.   An Israeli judge on Tuesday sentenced former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert to six years in jail for taking bribes while he was mayor of Jerusalem.  If Mr. Olmert goes to prison, he would be the first Israeli prime minister ever to serve jail time.

Mr. Olmert's lawyer, Eli Zohar, told reporters that the ex-premier was appealing his March conviction on charges of accepting about $160,000 in bribes from real-estate developers while serving as mayor of Jerusalem from 1993 until 2003.  In his 64-page ruling, Tel Aviv District Court Judge David Rozen likened Mr. Olmert and other public officials who accepted bribes to "traitors" because they had betrayed the public trust. Judge Rozen, who also fined Mr. Olmert nearly $300,000, said that the ex-premier had used the talents that brought him to the pinnacle of politics to "line his pockets with wealth" when he was out of the public eye.  The former prime minister deserved a harsh sentence, the judge said, because he created public "rot that contaminated its surroundings." . . .

Thursday 15  May  2014 / Hour 3, Block B: Daniel Saat, director of business development SpaceIL, in re: We’re building g the smallest, smarted spacecraft to land on the  Moon: 300 lbs, legs, size of a dishwasher. Has to land and move 500 meters and send back good pix  in order to win the Google space prize.  . . .

Thursday 15  May  2014 / Hour 3, Block C: Robert Zimmerman, behindtheblack.com, in re:

Thursday 15  May  2014 / Hour 3, Block D: Philip Terzian, Weekly Standard,  in re: Mad magazine.

Hour Four

Thursday 15  May  2014 / Hour 4, Block A: Japan 1941: Countdown to Infamy by Eri Hotta (Part One: 1 of 4)

Thursday 15  May  2014 / Hour 4, Block B: Japan 1941: Countdown to Infamy by Eri Hotta (Part One: 2 of 4)

Thursday 15  May  2014 / Hour 4, Block C: Japan 1941: Countdown to Infamy by Eri Hotta (Part One: 3 of 4)

Thursday 15  May  2014 / Hour 4, Block D: Japan 1941: Countdown to Infamy by Eri Hotta (Part One: 4 of 4)