The John Batchelor Show

Thursday 22 May 2014

Air Date: 
May 22, 2014
Photo, above: Edmund Burke. See Hour 3, Block D,  Peter Berkowitz, Hoover & Real Clear Politics, in re: A Conservative's Case for Moderation

JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW

Co-hosts: Mary Kissel, Wall Street Journal editorial board. Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents.

Hour One

Thursday  22 May 2014 / Hour 1, Block A: Liz Peek, The Fiscal Times & Fox, in re:  I love the tea party – they did a great job of alerting the nation to our trillion-dollar deficits; but I see them as gangly adolescents who got too big for their britches.  Ted Cruz cannot be a GOP candidate because he has little support nationally and went too far in imposing his own views on a platform said to be for all of usJB: I can’t connect to many statements by tea party politicians that I just don’t agree with; used to be called "sectionalist politics" before the Civil War.  Nearly everyone says, "I'm a social liberal and a fiscal conservative." This might not work in Texas. . . .  Most of the country want the 11 million, or whatever it is, immigrants to become not citizens, but legal.  . . . Little ol' rino me from eastern PA; that's how my grandfather raised me. 

Tea Party challengers went down to defeat in important GOP primaries last night. Mitch McConnell had vowed to “crush” Tea Party rival Matt Bevin, who referred to the Majority Leader as a “pretend conservative.” And he  did – in a landslide. In Georgia and Idaho, upstart contenders also lost to veteran Republicans, giving the party seasoned candidates with whom they hope to win control of the Senate party insisted on nationalizing its policies; I saw them as e come November. The mainstream rejoiced, and reasonably so. Still, it’s time someone said something nice about the Tea Party. True,  primary season showcased a number of right-wing nuts and dolts who popped up in Kentucky, Georgia and elsewhere. They were eager to challenge so-called “establishment” Republicans –- aka those who can actually win elections.

The emergence of candidates who challenge evolution (Paul Broun in Georgia) or who champion cock fighting (Matt Bevin in Kentucky) causes great merriment amongst the liberal media and lots of hand-wringing from sober Republicans. But, let us recall that . . .

Thursday  22 May 2014 / Hour 1, Block B:  Edward W Hayes, criminal defense attorney par excellence, in re: We live in Democratic Land. Bill de Blasio is the new, extremely energetic mayor of New York.  Ed Hayes is our Show Democrat.   Andrew Cuomo is running for re-election of Governor of New York.  . . . We don’t know if Mrs Clinton will run for the presidency.  On nay given day, is she running of not?  Her health – the notion was that she was tired; she looks pretty stressed, there maybe health issues. she'd be a super candidate.  . . .  Mary Kissel:  Elizabeth Warren is a "crass populist"  - can speak to Harvard, makes Mrs Clinton look elder.   EH: Wait – the definition of Democrat is that they have no understanding of foreign policy. JB: The strength of Sen Barack Obama from Hyde Park was that he was a great poker player.  . . .  Hah! Eddie can be fickle!

Bill Clinton gets Bill de Blasio's back.   Bill de Blasio has fought with New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, been blindsided by snowstorms and bedeviled by the Big Apple's tabloid culture.    Bill Clinton and Bill de Blasio Share Stage in Harlem.   Blasio presents Cuomo as a model Democrat.

Thursday  22 May 2014 / Hour 1, Block C: Francis Rose, Federal News Radio, in re: Veterans Administration – weaknesses here for a long time; synchs with VA problems with IT and the way it exchanges information internally. DOD has been skeptical of its ability to keep records.  When did things go so horribly wrong if the Phoenix problems are endemic? From 2011, Paul Krugman; "Multiple surveys find that VHA provides better medical care than [civilian sector does]." "Free from the perverse incentives of [the free market]." Yike!

Thursday  22 May 2014 / Hour 1, Block D: Jose Mallea, theLibreI nitiative.com, in re: . . .  the Spanish-language media is so in sync with Democratic  [party] lines. Our whole message is about upward mobility.  We can penetrate in some ways better than the parties can.  Speaker Boehner s leadership is critical on immigration, on health care. It’s not just the politics – immigration in this country is broken: heritage, and a central economic issue. 

Hour Two

Thursday  22 May 2014 / Hour 2, Block A: Mark Dubowitz is executive director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, in re: True, the only reason Iran is at the table is that it was being squeezed by sanctions – thought the entire economy was three to six months away from collapse; the Obama Adm decided to lift the sanctions. Wise for the Senate to draw up the entire sanctions regime to be installed in January in case it's needed. [  ]  We looked at 22,00 open-source media entries; found that the lifting of the sanctions was correlated with an improvement of the Iranian economy – so are becoming even more intransigent with t heir nuclear demands.  Are closing dipl ofcs in some South American countries – were I a severe recession in 2012-13, so still under budgetary pressures.  Rumor that he US-Iran nuke deal is long since done; just trying to make it all look credible now.  A year ago, in Almaty, "stop, ship and shut" – stop production, ship extant weapons-grade Pn out, and shut it down – but now Iran can ignore all that because of the Obama Adm moves.  Huge change in merely twelve months; Sen Menendez may be keeping his powder dry for a move in the near future.   He's a hero, was under a withering assault by the White House, he stood his ground, has been very tough – he's the fire wall protecting us all.

Thursday  22 May 2014 / Hour 2, Block B: Mohamed M Tawfik, Egyptian ambassador to the United States, in re: In all the ummah the only nation is Egypt.  How to watch the elections in Egypt next Monday and Tuesday?  Last weekend, we had elections here in the US for expats at the Egyptian embassy.. People drove all the way from Florida so they c9uld vote; got five times the number we expected. The street outside the embassy was full of people dancing, waving flags, playing music –a lot of optimism My advice is to look at how people are reacting: how many go to vote, if they're in a festive mood or not, are optimistic or not.  Stock market today is doing fantastically well. I think that in future the US and Egypt will have improved relations.  Sinai" a vigorous effort to deal with the terrorists and extremists in the Sinai – cannot allow it to be a safe haven for terrorists, wd be harmful tot eh whole region.  Regarding eqpt: always a need for eqpt; recent release of Apache helicopters, most useful.   Gen Dempsey: Need mil-to-mil contact. Important to reach appoint where one acts regionally to achieve a comprehensive peace.    The 1979 peace treaty between Egypt and Israel: a fact of life, not argued.  . . .  Key is goyt's economy, and the population living on 6% of the land, Gen Sisis trying to expand that. A lot of optimism in the business community.   

Thursday  22 May 2014 / Hour 2, Block C: Eli Lake, senior national security correspondent, Newsweek/Daily Beast, in re: Syrian fighters returning, Russian missiles, Boko Haram.

Al Qaeda: US Adm now acknowledges that it’s metastacized.  ICG report interviewed Boko Haram members discussed relationship between _ Ali and bin Laden; Ali went to Afghanistan.  Money to the initial iteration of Boko Haram, which became vicious and violent in 2010.  Correspondence in Abbotabad.   Foreigners – US & Europeans in Syria - over 100 Americans have gone to Syria. Law enforcement says: when you transit a country with weak border controls, problem to track people with Western passports. Senior al Q officials from Pakistan have relocated to Syria.  Problem is not just return to the US, but the Rolodex connections made there. Can recruit people here; networking is the danger.  Has al Q given an order for a transnational attack on the home land?  New threats to West and the US. In 2012, official opinion was that affiliate groups not much able; now, see Syria, North Africa, Yemen: al Qaeda has been filling the void.  No successful pressure against them except a bit in Yemen.   Al Q currently has two factions - ISIS disobeying Zawahiri, and al Nusrah, which is more closely aligned with al Q central. Training camps.  Part of this is networking, part is : if you fight in the battle of Syria, you’re held as a sort of war hero.  Battlefield experience generates much respect among terrorists.  This Administration has refocused on al Qaeda as a threat to the US – the guys who believe that it’s correct to mass-murder

Thursday  22 May 2014 / Hour 2, Block D: Eric Trager, FDD, in re:  war against Muslim Brotherhood; al-Sisi; US aid. Upcoming elections in Egypt: winner is foregone conclusion; if low turnout, esp in Cairo, bad sign, but high turnout good for al Susi. Important issue: electricity provision. AL Sis is in an existential problem: almost all dissent is, in real fact, personally dangerous to him; he's likely to crack down on protests more strongly than Morsi or Mubarak could. Muslim Brotherhood's funding sources: Every member gives 6-8% of income as ell as remittances from the Gulf.   Weapons from Libya through Egypt to Sinai. some from Gaza, tribal leaders said that Sis I had visited the three times!  "I don’t want the governate of Libya to become like Sinai"; hasn’t yet firmly sealed the border.  Al Sisi has mostly decapitated the top-down Muslim Brotherhood – members are indoctrinated for 5 to 8 years, organization has lasted 86 years.  Report of joint Russian-Egyptian military exercises. 

Hour Three

Thursday  22 May 2014 / Hour 3, Block A:  Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents, in re: Iran and Venezuela:  the Iranian natl oil co closed ofc in Bolivia, then in Venezuela, and officially canceled its oil agreement there. "We'll g o back and focus on domestic gas fields"  the real story seems to be:  "Not economically justified, tha the offices served on political purposes" – still have ofcs in Ecuador Guatemala, Cuba, Nicaragua.  China puts $300 million in Tele Aviv: Chinese businessmen students going to Israel is increasing,  Favor water reclamation, high tech biotech, solar energy: partnership Tel Aviv-Tsinghua. Confucius Center.  Delegation of 350 people arrives in Israel.  Every Chinese university has a Jewish or Israel studies department.  Iran gravely worried about women's protests – the ultimate weapon against he regime is the Iranian people.  Huge outflow of heroin out of Iran into Holland, Tanzania, France – because the Iranian regime is desperate for income?  Golan Heights:  ISIS, being an extension of al Qaeda from Iran, is establishing itself at he Israeli border, visible to Israeli soldiers, talks of :"taking back" Golan. Division1 has sophisticated US weapons!  We still don'[t know exactly who they are. Estimate 2,000 al Nusrah in Golan, plus ISIS (with al Q flags at checkpoints), and Syrian army has evaporated there.  Destroying antiquities: FaceBook movie of a guy smashing a 3,000-year old statue t0 wipe out the past in order to destroy the future Jordan; ZimZam has broken with the MB in favor of a more moderate policy, Kalashinikov price has dropped from $2,000 to $500. 

Thursday  22 May 2014 / Hour 3, Block B:  Avi Issacharoff, Times of Israel Middle East correspondent; in re: Nakba Day, death of two Palestinians, Abbas., Mahmoud Abbas has flip-flopped: Nakhba Day refers to the tragedy of the founding of he State of Israel.  Protests often get violent; this year, journos caught and were abut to be killed except for Palestinian security forces.  Tires burned, two teenagers killed; more violence.  Now the PA disavows marriage with Hamas, and using lawfare.  Odd.  Problem with PA going to the ICC is that PA, also, can be brought up on charges.  Not really a marriage of PA and Hamas; more living together.  Hamas to surrender to Fatah, hand over the Gazan govt to Abbas [fat chance].  Gradual increase in the level of violence, more Palestinians demonstrating and throwing stones, young Palestinians' killed in the demos. It’s not quite a third Intifada. 

Thursday  22 May 2014 / Hour 3, Block C: Terry Anderson, PERC & Hoover, in re: Ex-Governor Auditions as Clinton's Populist Challenger; Brian Schweitzer could be a long shot for the Democratic presidential nomination. / Video: Hillary's Possible Democratic Challengers

Thursday  22 May 2014 / Hour 3, Block D:   Peter Berkowitz, Hoover & Real Clear Politics, in re: A Conservative's Case for Moderation

Hour Four

Thursday  22 May 2014 / Hour 4, Block A: Henry I Miller, M.D., Hoover & Forbes.com, in re: Organic Farming Is Not Sustainable. More labor with lower yields is a luxury only rich populations can afford.

Thursday  22 May 2014 / Hour 4, Block B:  Robert Zimmerman, behindtheblack.com, in re: Using computer models and data collected in the past decade, some climate scientists now believe that a major Antarctica ice sheet is in the process of collapsing. One team combined data on the recent retreat of the 182,000-square-kilometer Thwaites Glacier with a model of the glacier’s  dynamics to forecast its future. In a paper published online today in Science, they report that in as few as 2 centuries Thwaites Glacier’s outermost edge will recede past an underwater ridge now stalling its retreat. Their modeling suggests that the glacier will then cascade into rapid collapse. The second team, writing in Geophysical Research Letters (GRL), describes recent radar mapping of West Antarctica’s glaciers and confirms that the 600-meter-deep ridge is the final obstacle before the bedrock underlying the glacier dips into a deep basin.  . . .

Thursday  22 May 2014 / Hour 4, Block C:  Richard A Epstein, Hoover Institution, Chicago Law, in re: In my academic career, I have devoted much time to examining the rise of the regulatory state and the havoc it wreaks on economic growth. The poor growth rates of the last decade are not the unavoidable consequence of natural events or huge impersonal forces. Many of them stem from our boneheaded choices on regulation and taxation.

Simplifying the tax code and easing back on regulations could easily bump that growth rate above Piketty’s dire predictions. But so long as policy makers take Piketty’s lead,  preoccupying themselves with inequality, our prospects for growth are grim. We will continue to pay a high social price if  we place our faith in Piketty’s rickety economic theories…

Thursday  22 May 2014 / Hour 4, Block D: Richard A Epstein, Hoover Institution, Chicago Law (continued)

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