Painting, above: Russian occupation of Crimea

JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW

Hour One

Tuesday  28 April  2014 / Hour 1, Block A: Eli Lake, senior national security correspondent, Newsweek/Daily Beast, in re:  Jumbo set with a huge intercept platform, can vacuum up the entire electromagnetic spectrum.  "Open Skies" allow Russians and US planes to fly across each other's territory; now in jeopardy.  Anent Ukraine: flown out of bases under NATO command.  Govts like China, US, Russia, Israel, France – advanced countries – have enormous capabilities.  Also the photo stuff from satellites.  Latest from State Dept: Kerry makes no reference at all to Ukrainian intell.  Ukrainians have asked US for intell help; still wrangling.  Not at all clear. Kerry's remarks comprising the word "Apartheid" were made to a private Trilateral Commission mtg.  Uniforms in Novorossiya are very close to Russian uniforms.  Recall WSJ article: No telltale signs of incipient  Crimea operation, which is how US got caught flatfooted. John Brennan travelled supposedly secretly to Kyiv (that didn't work); interesting in connection with intell transfers.  Secy of State seems much frustrated by Mr Lavrov, Russian Foreign Minister; no conversation between Kremlin and White House, but some 'twixt Lavrov and Kerry.  Recall end of August: first I've heard a State Secy speak with such moral clarity as when he denounced he Russians. Kerry can turn on a dime.  Story from Josh Rogin was of Kerry speaking of Israel as an Apartheid state; but he also has carefully supported Israel. 

U.S. Taped Moscow Plotting Chaos
 The secretary of state claimed in a private meeting that the U.S. intelligence community has recordings of pro-Russian forces being managed by government handlers in Moscow.

Tuesday  28 April  2014 / Hour 1, Block B: Eric Trager, Washington Institute, in re: The Candidate in His Labyrinth  Egypt’s president-in-waiting says he’s widely loved, so why does he sleep in an undisclosed location and fear for his life?  [more]  Seventy per cent of Egypt's electricity is produced by natural gas, and it'll be Ramadan on June 30.   Sisi may be given a little time before the populace grows wroth, but it'll come.   Ikhwan thinks it'll win by fighting, and members willing to die fighting for the Muslim Brotherhood.  "Jihad is our way; death for Islam is the highest . . ."

Tuesday  28 April  2014 / Hour 1, Block C: Anna Nemtsova, Daily Beast, in re:  Russia's Great Rock 'n Roll Swindle April 27, As the Kremlin tries to turn back the clock to the glories of the Soviet Union, Perestroika has become a bad word and its heroes are cast as villains

Tuesday  28 April  2014 / Hour 1, Block D:  Nicholas Wade, NYT, in re:  Researchers See New Importance in Y Chromosome Two surveys have reconstructed the full history of the shrunken male chromosome, which provides regulatory genes that play a role throughout the body. Regulatory genes control the entire organism; are slightly different between males and females.  Two species with fundamentally different genetics, who interbreed. It just gets more and more complex. 

Hour Two

As US Rushes Into New Cold War, Where Is the Debate? (see: end of this schedule)

Tuesday  28 April  2014 / Hour 2, Block A:  Stephen F. Cohen, NYU & Princeton professor Emeritus ;  author: Soviet Fates and Lost Alternatives: From Stalinism to the New Cold War, & The Victims Return: Survivors of the Gulag after Stalin; in re: (1 of 4)  Luhansk oblast: Russians ("Russian sympathizers") have broken into official bldgs. In Donetsk: referendum on 11 May to preclude the natl referendum. Slovyansk: a tug guerilla leader is holding OECD hostages. Putin: "We would not like to resort to some retaliatory measure;  hope this will not be next."

Ukraine is spinning toward civil war, East vs West.  In November, when Europe was negotiating with Kyiv – there was a Ukrainian state. There exists no Ukrainian state today. Thus all sorts of autonomous forces are taking control, incl in the West, here ultra-pro-nationalist forces are taking over towns and local govts.  The US says that Russia is responsible for the unrest in Eastern Ukraine: "If you don’t stop, we'll sanction you." Does Russia really control the unrest?  Hurricane of misinformation coming ut of Washington. Moscow, Kyiv.  No rational discussion today – NYT, WaPo WSJ, TV networks, NPR, the major broadcasting and publishing entities have taken the role of silent observer or cheerleader.  The media say that these forces seizing bldgs in Astern Ukraine are "pro-Russian."  In fact, they’re anti-Kyiv, whose govt came to power through an illegal coup. Not true that they all want to join Russia. Speaking of a little more autonomy, or home rule.  We’d be discussing this were we having a media debate. Washington and the US media seem to have no interest in a real debate.  Its an axiom of democratic governance that it works if there's open debate.  Most sadly, at present only the John Batchelor Show airs this.   

Tuesday  28 April  2014 / Hour 2, Block B: Stephen F. Cohen, NYU & Princeton professor Emeritus ;  author: Soviet Fates and Lost Alternatives: From Stalinism to the New Cold War, & The Victims Return: Survivors of the Gulag after Stalin; in re: (2 of 4) Distorting Russia: As US Rushes Into New Cold War, Where Is the Debate? in The Nation magazine.  Zbig Brzezinski at the Atlantic Council. A cold warrior of the highest intellectual caliber. Came out of Harvard, was young, smart. Then gravitated toward being a Washington advisor for Pres Carter. When he left the White House, he retired as an elder statesman. What he's been saying in recent days is a reversion to the firebrand of the Cold War. He's an extremely important figure for the Cold Warriors in the US, in Europe, and esp in Poland, where he's originally from. In a Wall Street Journal op-ed, ZB avers, "What is at stake is a secure and open Europe." Brzezinski is perpetuating a myth: that there's only one Ukraine. In fact, it’s profoundly divided by history, ethnicity, marriage, economics. Half think it'd be better off with, or at least not without, Russia; the others prefer Europe; and he's calling for a shooting civil war, the worst-possible outcome. His appeal is based on a false analysis and is exceedingly dangerous. Why he'd say such a thing at  this combustible moment. . . .

Tuesday  28 April  2014 / Hour 2, Block C: Stephen F. Cohen, NYU & Princeton professor Emeritus ;  author: Soviet Fates and Lost Alternatives: From Stalinism to the New Cold War, & The Victims Return: Survivors of the Gulag after Stalin; in re: (3 of 4) Zbigniew Brzezinski: Cold War without debate - As US Rushes Into New Cold War, Where Is the Debate? – democratic media are not engaged in discussion of the crash of views over Ukraine between the US and Russia, and Europe in the middle. He speaks of the need of Ukrainians to fight. "TI think Pres Obama has played in prudently; that the Russian economy is in no shape to [survive] sanctions"  "It won't be easy to apply pressure on Russia, but Putin must ask, What are the consequences of a nation of 45 million growing hostile to Russia?" Brzezinski is calling for the West to arm Kyiv and abet a shooting civil war.  He calls for removing Putin; he's set to outlive everyone around him.  For years, Putin has been trying to get his oligarchs to bring their wealth back home, not only to tax it, but because he thinks that foreign investment obliges dual loyalties; Putin calls for "de-offshore-izati0n."  Ergo, sanctions strengthen Putin.  ZB: "I’d be willing to promise [arms] to them now; call for protracted urban resistance." – an Iraq-like battle!   Apparently anti-Kyiv forces are seizing more and more official bldgs some gunfighting has broken out. The Kyiv govt sent an "anti-terrorist" force; "terrorist" includes women standing in the street blocking tanks.   The notion of a unified Ukraine was behind the folly of the EU in November demanding that "Ukraine" choose between the EU and Russia. This deletes 300 years of history, it’s preposterous. Why can't the Administration send representatives to one-on-one debates? Why don't the US media demand debates?  ITAR-Tass: troops arriving in Estonia with welcome; now it’s being shown in Moscow, will not calm nerves there.  Sent 150 troops to Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and maybe Rumania.    From all the distinguished US media: not a syllable of discussion on the Russian-speaking Ukrainians who don’t want to join with Moscow but [disdain] the coup-arrived govt in Kyiv.

Tuesday  28 April  2014 / Hour 2, Block D: Stephen F. Cohen, NYU & Princeton professor Emeritus ;  author: Soviet Fates and Lost Alternatives: From Stalinism to the New Cold War, & The Victims Return: Survivors of the Gulag after Stalin; in re: (4 of 4)  We cant even get a panel to see who led the snipers that brought down Yanukovich.  I'd say, The West instigated this crisis by forcing an either-or choice. Was there already a plan in place to get rid of Yanukovich? No; but then the unwise decision led to people in the streets and the Russians began to think this was a US operation, reinforced by Brennan's arrival in Kyiv two weeks ago. Probably no American plot; just this idea that Ukraine should be brought into NATO.  After the coup d'etat, Washington seems to have decided to get deeply involved.  Moscow has every reason to believe that this is an American plot.  Putin is half-right, gives us too much credit for clear planning.  This is not about favoring Russia or the US – we’re destroying our natl security in this, losing Russia, opening a new Cod War. 

Hour Three

Tuesday  28 April  2014 / Hour 3, Block A:   Salena Zito, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review & Pirates fan, in re: Where No Dem Has Gone Before Hell has officially frozen over in Pennsylvania.  The first political ad warmly embracing ObamaCare, by a candidate not named Obama, hit state airwaves last week. It likely will be the last pro-ObamaCare ad ever made.  Allyson Schwartz boldly went where no Democrat has gone before, trying to gain ground in a primary race that's slipping swiftly from her hands

Tuesday  28 April  2014 / Hour 3, Block B: John Tamny, Forbes, in re: Global warming's true believers are angry that market signals mock their overdone alarmism.  Rather than foisting all of their emotion on the "deniers," they should do as John Paulson did and invest against the broad market consensus.  If they're correct as they loudly remind us with great regularity, they'll match profit with activism. Global Warming's True Believers Are Screaming at the Proverbial Scoreboard In a recent column about HBO's documentary series Vice, I questioned Vice founder Shane Smith's contention that a failure to act on the theory that is global warming will prove perilous. Smith asserted that soon enough 80 of the world's most developed cities will be under water thanks to inaction when it comes to reducing carbon emissions.

Tuesday  28 April  2014 / Hour 3, Block C: Robert Zimmerman, behindtheblack.com, in re: Uh-oh: Russia responds to new U.S. sanctions by threatening U.S. astronauts on ISS.  Moscow reacted with fury to the inclusion in the sanctions of high-tech exports to Russia and threatened reprisals. “If their aim is to deliver a blow to Russia’s rocket-building sector, then by default, they would be exposing their astronauts on the ISS,” Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin said, according to the Interfax news agency.  “Sanctions are always a boomerang that come back and painfully hit those who launched them,” added Rogozin on a visit to Crimea, which Russia annexed from Ukraine in March. Was Rogozin actually hinting that Russia might strand U.S. astronauts on ISS?  The competition heats up: Russia’s Proton rocket successfully put two satellites into orbit on Monday.  This is the first of a slew of Proton launches in the next few months as they work to catch up on their launch manifest.

Tuesday  28 April  2014 / Hour 3, Block D:  Robert Zimmerman, behindtheblack.com, in re: he competition heats up: ULA has accelerated delivery of its required Russian rocket engines in anticipation of worsening relations with Russia and with members of Congress.

ULA presently is the only company the Air Force uses to launch its military satellites, and members of Congress are questioning this monopoly in the context of the situation in the Ukraine as well as SpaceX’s lawsuit challenging it.

The competition cools? ATK is splitting off its aerospace division to merge that division with Orbital Sciences.  Alliant Techsystems Inc. ATK on Tuesday said it plans to split into two independent companies, one focused on outdoor sports and hunting products, the other centered on aerospace and defense. The outdoor sports operations–which produce commercial ammunition, hunting products and other related items–will be spun off to Alliant shareholders in a tax-free transaction, the company said. The segment generated $2.2 billion in revenue during 2013, Alliant said.

After the separation, Alliant said it plans to merge the aerospace and defense business–which produces rocket propulsion systems and satellite systems, among other things–with rocket and space-system developer Orbital Sciences Inc. The company will be named Orbital ATK Inc.

More here. The company press releases call this “a merger of equals” and do not make it clear what instigated the deal. Did Orbital offer to buy ATK’s aerospace division with its ammo business spun off, or did ATK want to sell off its aerospace division to focus on ammo? I wonder. The ammo business right now is booming, while aerospace remains a much more risky venture. ATK might have wanted to focus on ammo, where the money is, and proposed the idea to Orbital.  At the end of a press conference Elon Musk lets slip the news that SpaceX has chosen Brownsville, Texas as the location of its commercial spaceport.  They still have to get some FAA and environmental approvals, but expect to be launching from Texas in “a couple of years.”

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Contractor speeds up deliveries of Russian engines   Is the U.S. Space Program Too Reliant on Russia?

March 18 (Bloomberg) -- Billionaire Elon Musk wants to break into a $70 billion Pentagon satellite launch market monopolized by a Lockheed Martin-Boeing joint venture. . . . A U.S. defense firm is accelerating deliveries of rocket engines from Russia as members of Congress seek to end contracts with the country over the conflict in Ukraine.

United Launch Alliance said Thursday it is speeding up its schedule for receiving Russian-made engines, from once a year to twice per year.  ULA received one shipment of four engines last November, but this year will receive shipments of two engines in August and three engines in October.  "This year we are having the engines shipped once they are completed versus waiting to get one shipment," ULA spokeswoman Jessica Rye told The Hill. 

The Air Force has a five-year contract with ULA to buy 36 rocket cores, for both Atlas V rockets, which use the Russian-made engines, and another type of rocket called Delta IV, which does not.  Lawmakers have called upon the administration to stop using rockets with the Russian-made engines, which are manufactured by Russian-owned firm Energomash. 

Members of Congress, as well as competing rocket manufacturers, argue that U.S. national security missions are vulnerable to Russia's supplying the engines, and that taxpayer dollars should not go towards bolstering Russia.  Each engine reportedly costs between $11 to $15 million. 

ULA pushed back against those concerns, saying that Russia has taken no actions to restrict sales or exports of the RD-180 engines, and if it did, ULA would use its Delta IV rockets, which don't rely on Russian engines.  "The RD-180 supply chain has never experienced a supply disruption in the 15 years of imports and is widely considered throughout the aerospace industry as a model of international cooperation," Rye said.  She said restricting imports of the engines would have a minor effect on Russia, because 90 percent of Russian exports to the U.S. are raw materials.  "It imposes an artificial crisis in the U.S. domestic launch market, one that only serves to impede U.S. capabilities to launch critical payloads," she said. 

"It is completely appropriate to review the status of supply of RD-180s in light of the current political tensions in Russia," she said. "However, ULA is currently the only certified launch provider that can support the full range of national security space missions."

Hour Four

Tuesday  28 April  2014 / Hour 4, Block A: A Serial Killer in Nazi Berlin: The Chilling True Story of the S-Bahn Murderer by Scott Andrew Selby  (1 of 2)

Tuesday  28 April  2014 / Hour 4, Block B: A Serial Killer in Nazi Berlin: The Chilling True Story of the S-Bahn Murderer by Scott Andrew Selby  (2 of 2)

Tuesday  28 April  2014 / Hour 4, Block C: Now I Know Who My Comrades Are: Voices from the Internet Underground by Emily Parker (1 of 2)

Tuesday  28 April  2014 / Hour 4, Block D: Now I Know Who My Comrades Are: Voices from the Internet Underground by Emily Parker (2 of 2)

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Cold War Against Russia—Without Debate

Katrina vanden Heuvel and Stephen F. Cohen     The Nation  April 30, 2014, 6:00AM ET

Future historians will note that in April 2014, nearly a quarter--century after the end of the Soviet Union, the White House declared a new Cold War on Russia—and that, in a grave failure of representative democracy, there was scarcely a public word of debate, much less opposition, from the American political or media establishment. 

The Obama administration announced its Cold War indirectly, in a front-page New York Times story by Peter Baker on April 20. According to the report, President Obama has resolved, because of the Ukraine crisis, that he can “never have a constructive relationship” with Russian President Vladimir Putin and will instead “ignore the master of the Kremlin” and focus on “isolating…Russia by cutting off its economic and political ties to the outside world…effectively making it a pariah state.” In short, Baker reports, the White House has adopted “an updated version of the Cold War strategy of containment.” He might have added, a very extreme version. The report has been neither denied nor qualified by the White House. 

No modern precedent exists for the shameful complicity of the American political--media elite at this fateful turning point. Considerable congressional and mainstream media debate, even protest, were voiced, for example, during the run-up to the US wars in Vietnam and Iraq and, more recently, proposed wars against Iran and Syria. This Cold War—its epicenter on Russia’s borders; undertaken amid inflammatory American, Russian and Ukrainian media misinformation; and unfolding without the stabilizing practices that prevented disasters during the preceding Cold War—may be even more perilous. It will almost certainly result in a new nuclear arms race, a prospect made worse by Obama’s provocative public assertion that “our conventional forces are significantly superior to the Russians’,” and possibly an actual war with Russia triggered by Ukraine’s looming civil war. (NATO and Russian forces are already mobilizing on the country’s western and eastern borders, while the US-backed Kiev government is warning of a “third world war.”) 

And yet, all this has come with the virtually unanimous, bipartisan support, or indifference, of the US political establishment, from left to right, Democrats and Republicans, progressives (whose domestic programs will be gravely endangered) and conservatives. It has also been supported by  mainstream media that shape and reflect policy-making opinion, from the Times and The Washington Post to The Wall Street Journal, from The New Republic to The Weekly Standard, from MSNBC to Fox News, from NPR to commercial radio news. (There are notable exceptions, including this magazine, but none close enough to the mainstream to be “authoritative” inside the Beltway.) 

To be more specific, not one of the 535 members of Congress has publicly expressed doubts about the White House’s new “Cold War strategy of containment.” Nor have any of the former US presidents or presidential candidates who once advocated partnership with post-Soviet Russia. Before the Ukraine crisis deepened, a handful of unofficial dissenters did appear on mainstream television, radio and op-ed pages, but so few and fleetingly they seemed to be heretics awaiting banishment. Their voices have since been muted by legions of cold warriors. 

Both sides in the confrontation, the West and Russia, have legitimate grievances. Does this mean, however, that the American establishment’s account of recent events should not be questioned? That it was imposed on the West by Putin’s “aggression,” and this because of his desire “to re-create as much of the old Soviet empire as he can” or merely to “maintain Putin’s domestic rating.” Does it mean there is nothing credible enough to discuss in Moscow’s side of the story? That twenty years of NATO’s eastward expansion has caused Russia to feel cornered. That the Ukraine crisis was instigated by the West’s attempt, last November, to smuggle the former Soviet republic into NATO. That the West’s jettisoning in February of its own agreement with then-President Viktor Yanukovych brought to power in Kiev an unelected regime so anti-Russian and so uncritically embraced by Washington that the Kremlin felt an urgent need to annex predominantly Russian Crimea, the home of its most cherished naval base. And, most recently, that Kiev’s sending of military units to suppress protests in pro-Russian eastern Ukraine is itself a violation of the April 17 agreement to de-escalate the crisis. 

Future historians will certainly find some merit in Moscow’s arguments, and wonder why they are being widely debated in, for example, Germany, but not in America. It may already be too late for the democratic debate the US elite owes our nation. If so, the costs to American democracy are already clear.

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Music

Hour 1:  John Carter. Victor Tsoy.  I, Robot.

Hour 2:  Crimson Tide.  Broken Arrow. 

Hour 3:  Ides of March. The Road.   Battle LA.

Hour 4: