Photo, above - evocativesynthesis: This is an abandoned railway station in Abkhazia, former Russian territory. It stays untouched since the collapse of USSR – the railway connection of Abkhazia and Russia stopped and railway station left out of demand so nature could take over the left-overs of Soviet architecture. (via English Russia).  See: Hour 2, Stephen F. Cohen, NYU & Princeton professor Emeritus

Abkhaz President resigns after days of anti-government unrest   Abkhaz President Aleksandr Ankvab has resigned “for the sake of stability” following days of anti-government protests as opposition demands reforms and the government to step down.  "After numerous consultations with representatives of the public, voters, colleagues, and I have made the final decision. It does not meet the sentiments of most of our citizens and those with whom there was a search of the way out this situation. But, nevertheless, due to these circumstances, I believe this is the only right decision," Ankvab said in a statement released by state-run Apsnypress news agency.  “In order to preserve stability in the country, in accordance with article 65 of the Constitution of the Republic of Abkhazia, I resign from the post of the President of the Republic of Abkhazia," he said.

Aleksandr Ankvab has urged people to remain calm and not to call on mass protests as well as not to give in to provocations in order to preserve peace in the country and prevent a “catastrophe.” 

JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW

Co-host: Larry Kudlow, CNBC senior advisor; & Cumulus Media radio

Hour One

Tuesday 3 June  2014 / Hour 1, Block A:  John Taylor, Hoover, in re: Prof Taylor invited economists from all over the world to discuss Frameworks for Central Banking in the Next Century*: rules are not written down – in fact were thrown out in the early 2000s, and John Taylor is very much a critic of this situation.  Prof Taylor wants:  4% nominal rate (a "terminal rate"), 2% reserve (for the 2% inflation goal), for the Fed.  Ben Bernanke is giving dinners at $400K a head for bankers, saying that the Fed will not get it to 4% and doesn't intend to – and Bernanke is close to Yellin.  He holds that there'll be a no-growth economy; not a good message, if that's what’s being stated.  Bernanke says Yellin will overshoot inflati0n – a repeat of the early 2000s? financial instability?  Yes .  If you let rates stay at this level for too long, that's exactly the risk.  Not a good msg for central bankers to be conveying Jon Hilsenrath spoke of headwinds and secular stagnation?  No, there's a drag on the economy – regulation, monetary policy, taxes, debt  - but that's not a new normal or lower growth and in any case not monetary policy.  . . .  Fed funds rate a year hence to be 0.6% and a year later 1.6%.  At our conference, the only universal agreement was that we need to get back to that kind of a policy.  The financial crisis is years over, so not headwinds.  

* "Background: The main unifying theme of the conference is that successful policy requires that central bankers’ decisions be based on clearly-understood rules—including legal limits, institutional structures, mandates, traditions, procedures, or formulas—and not solely on discretion. The main aim of the conference is a set of policy-focused recommendations for the rules, limits, guidance, structure and communications of central-bank policy-making based on data, theory and history of the past 100 years." See also: Deviations from Rules-Based Policies and Their Effects, David H Papell

Tuesday 3 June  2014 / Hour 1, Block B: John Taylor, Hoover, in re: Frameworks for Central Banking in the Next Century*   Check Bloomberg,  Reuters, New York Times, LA Times,  Washington Post,  International Economy, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg Radio, Financial Times, Market News International, CNBC, Investor's Business Daily, The Economist, Economic Principals.  A 2% rate would strengthen the dollar and create more stability, We had a long period of steady growth, no boom-bust, or Fed slamming on the brakes; people willing to take risks and invest.  Statistical methods show good performance  Higher interest rates (at rock-bottom right now!) can improve the economy?  Not just the rates – the strategy implied.  What we're doing now isn’t working. When you have a higher first rate . . .  The specifics: uncertainty  -- think of bond prices.  LK: Either slash or abolish the corporate tax, plus regulatory [predictability], plus the Taylor Rule.  JB: Fiscal economy?  JT: The mistake is to think you can solve real problems with monetary policy – can only put in a good framework.  LK: "Milton: Monetary policy has no permanent effect on employment or unemployment."  Why did Pres Obama replace regulatory and tax policy with this superman called Bernanke?  Dunno – rumors that when Larry Summers was still in the game for chair he believed the QE should be ended. 

Tuesday 3 June  2014 / Hour 1, Block C: Neel Kashkari, candidate for California governor, in re: today's election. Two goals: to win the governorship and to rebuild he Republican Party. We have tremendous momentum; economic opportunity, and I feel that's the winning message.  We’re 47th in jobs in America.  LK: The wacko California legislature ignoring economic growth, nothing with transport, roads, taxes, business.  NK: There may be a record low turnout today – this election process may need more cycles for people to get in.  I'm gonna make Jerry Brown answer for the destruction of the middle class in California – jobs to other states or overseas, education plummeted, poverty skyrocketed.  JB: The people most upset are lower middle class – want a leader for their modest incomes – they eel like they're scratching between middle class and poverty.  NK: Right. I grew up middle class, bagged groceries, mowed lawns; then I got a good education and [am doing better]; will let everyone know that we can [solve] this. Brown's 17-min state fo the state address didn’t even refer to poverty. That's crazy – I'll hold him accountable. "Please vote for me if you care about job in California . . . my vision for the GOP is the biggest tent you've ever seen in your life."  JB: Polls still open; whomever you vote for – just vote.

Tuesday 3 June  2014 / Hour 1, Block D: Carson Bruno, Defining Ideas (Hoover Institution), in re: California’s Primary Dilemma  -- follows 1,000 Californians on economic an political issues: all very unhappy with the economy and with jobs, but the current governor will be returned to office easily. Puzzle? They feel like they’re stuck in neutral, uphill.  The I5 in the middle of the state called the Grapevine – this is how citizens feel.  Kashkari has focussed on jobs and education tandem issues here.  The gubernatorial race is less about beating Jerry Brown and more about down-ballot races.  Dems in Sacramento have been working on pet projects of little interest or use to the citizenry.  "Lawmakers lack character, have a culture of corruption" – yet they'll return the same guys. Is this a Stockholm syndrome where they identify with their captors? Yep – felony convictions, and they don’t blame themselves. It’s recently become a one-party-state – GOP has collapsed.  Universal pre-school (2% favor) + high-speed rail (.0% favor) are what the Dems are latched on to.  Opportunity for Republicans if they can get a candidate to break through the clutter, have a message that resonates among many sectors of the populace.  Among people earning less than $40K PA, most feel that they’re worse off now that several years ago. 

Hour Two

Tuesday 3 June  2014 / Hour 2, Block A:   Stephen F. Cohen, NYU & Princeton professor Emeritus ;  author: Soviet Fates and Lost Alternatives: From Stalinism to the New Cold War, & The Victims Return: Survivors of the Gulag after Stalin, in re:  Pres Obama was in Warsaw today, promised $1 billion to bolster NATO near Russia.  Seems paltry in view of the needs. What’s the billion for?  The US and allies are continuing to militarize the conflict with Russia over Ukraine NATO has nothing to say diplomatically. For a month or so a sort of NATO creep toward Russia; as it entrenches, it becomes closer to Russia than it ever was during the Cold War . I wonder if that in itself isn’t a potential for war with Russia. Pres Obama's mission to Europe is a military mission  We're told he G7 may discuss addtl sanctions against Russia.  In autumn in Wales, a high -council mtg of NATO; several years ago, NATO intended to make a clear, firm offer to Georgia to join, but that was vetoed by Germany and France.  It boggles the mind to think of yet more confrontation with Russia now, at this stage – fortunately Merkel has vetoed the reprise of the effort.  First Russia was sanctioned over Crimea, now new ones (not clear why); it’s become a sort of SNL skit.  Coming: two dinners in Paris, to keep Obama and Putin apart. Both will go to Normandy on Friday 6 June for seventieth anniversary of the Normandy invasion.    . . . walking past an F16 accompanied by security detail 

Merkel Sees No MAP for Georgia at NATO Summit in Wales      There are options other than MAP to acknowledge Georgia’s progress, German Chancellor said.

PM Resigns in Breakaway Abkhazia     Lakerbaia stepped down after the Abkhaz leader Ankvab resigned a day earlier.    Swiss President Visits Azerbaijan, Georgia, Armenia    Didier Burkhalter, who also serves as Swiss FM and chairman of OSCE, will hold talks in Tbilisi on June 3.       Georgian PM Visits Germany     PM Garibashvili will meet German Chancellor Merkel on June 2.

Tuesday 3 June  2014 / Hour 2, Block B: Stephen F. Cohen (2 of 4), in re: recall when Putin raced back from Beijing to deal with the manhandling of Georgia.   The Telegraph (London) is the Tory version of the world: Pres Komorowkski and Pres Obama in Warsaw walking past an F16 warplane.   This is what Vremya showed on Russian TV across all eleven time zones. First, there’s no threat to Poland: Russia will not attack.  Several years ago, Poland – which had a lot of grievance as well as a lot of affinities – achieved a sort of détente led by Putin.  Poland wants a permanent American base in Poland. Under Bush, plans to bld quick-strike, forward-action bases.   In WWII, Hitler's wrath against he Jews included the Poles; seems to be an envy in Poland of Germany's economic and military might. Poland wants to offset Germany's influence in Europe – this might b why Poland has been in the forefront of taking Ukraine away from Russia and "bringing it into the West" – replicating the old Polish-Lithuanian empire of yore.

Tuesday 3 June  2014 / Hour 2, Block C: Stephen F. Cohen (3 of 4), in re: Silly that Pres Hollande will have two dinners in order to separate Obama and Putin.   Germany is split against Putin and sort of in agreement. France is worried about this crisis and its effect on the French economy, esp old contract with Moscow to sell Mitral, huge ships, to Russia; keeps French shipbuilders employed despite US oppositi0n.  JB: France and Russia have a flirtation back to Peter the Great. SC: Also, between WWI and WWII, during the Thirties France was the most pro-Soviet country, and had the anti-fascist united front under Leon Blum.  Were Pres Obama to turn to a diplomatic approach this would be the place.  PM Cameron will be in Normandy and see Putin there.  Londongrad, a book depicting it as heavy with Russian investment.   Sentiment grows for England to withdraw from Europe.  Washington, Moscow and Berlin are the main players Normandy is enormously important the memory and legacy of WWII.    In fact, Soviet Russia defeated Nazi Germany, notwithstanding the American myth that doesn’t conform with this.  If there does exist a doves/hawks debate in the White House, the doves lost when Obama stood in that hangar with the F16s.  Central Moscow monument, tributes to each of the battles, including poetic remarks.   I was alone and quiet; suddenly an armed Russian security guard approached, asked me in English, "Do you know about this??" He thought Americans didn’t care.  Soviets lost 27 million citizens. Every family remembers, has a drink on the birthday of he soldier who never came home – "only yesterday," as the Russians say.  The War began on 22 June 1941.

Tuesday 3 June  2014 / Hour 2, Block D: Stephen F. Cohen (4  of 4), in re: anonymous Polish analyst, "A billion dollars? The name is nice but not enough to reassure anyone."    Sikorsky is the leading hawk of the leading hawkish country, Poland.  Shouldn’t Europe be paying more for its own defense? It isn’t even paying what it’s agreed to under NATO.  Might ask Sikorsky, Why not have Europe contribute more?  The big story since WWII is the expansion of NATO to Russian borders, including missiles on ships.  Russia asked for a letter saying that missile defense will never be used against Russia – and the US wouldn’t even give that.   Gazprom just took a small partial payment of what Ukraine owes (by Ettinger); if Europe wants its gas this winter, it needs Russia to keep shipping gas, and Russia wants the existing debt to paid for by 6 June. 

lobster: омар

Hour Three

Tuesday 3 June  2014 / Hour 3, Block A:   Eli Lake, senior national security correspondent, Daily Beast, in re: SGT. BERGDAHL RELEASE  How Obama Got Spies Behind Taliban Deal
b The Pentagon and the nation’s top intelligence official opposed releasing the Gitmo Five in 2012. This time the White House got the answer it wanted when the Taliban was ready to deal.

White House Changes Tune on Bergdahl
 For years, the Obama administration avoided calling Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl a ‘prisoner of war.’ But now that he’s free, it has reversed course—potentially triggering Taliban demands.

Tuesday 3 June  2014 / Hour 3, Block B: Seb Gorka, FDD, Natl Defense University, in re:  Sgt. Bergdahl: What We Are Not Being Told

Tuesday 3 June  2014 / Hour 3, Block C:  Amos Guiora,  S. J. Quinney College of Law, University of Utah, in re: Israel Has Understood the Need for These Deals   Because Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl’s freedom came at the cost of releasing five senior Taliban prisoners, critics have raised questions about the wisdom of such deals. Will the Taliban prisoners return to their former ways and endanger U.S. forces? Will the exchange embolden others to capture U.S. military personnel?

Israel has dealt with these sorts of concerns in even more trying circumstances.  After Hezbollah captured Sgt. Ehud Goldwasser and Sgt. Eldad Regev of the Israel Defense Forces and Hamas captured Gilad Shalit, the Israeli news media and public focused intensely on the fate of the three soldiers.

Returning Goldwasser and Regev (when they were still presumed to be alive) was one of then-Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s primary motivations for undertaking the second Lebanon war in 2006. In the aftermath of the Shalit capture, there were loud, persistent calls for a prisoner release.  The question, obviously, was the price: How many Palestinian prisoners would be released? What terrorist acts had they committed? What would be the cost of their release? Would terrorist organizations be . . .

"For one soldier's return, Israel released 1,027 Palestinians prisoners. It was the nuanced and somber approach of a mature society."

Tuesday 3 June  2014 / Hour 3, Block D:  Jed Babbin, American Spectator, in re:   Article 32 hearing - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia  An Article 32 hearing is a proceeding under the United States Uniform Code of Military Justice, similar to that of a preliminary hearing in civilian law. Its name is  . . .

Hour Four

Tuesday 3 June  2014 / Hour 4, Block A:  Gene Countryman, KNSS Wichita, in re: Wichita VA hospital ‘placed veterans at risk,’ senators are told. The director of the veterans hospital in Wichita has informed two U.S. senators that the hospital kept a secret waiting list of patients that was found to have endangered veterans and that nine veterans waited more than 90 days for an appointment with a primary-care doctor.

Those revelations came by fax late Friday, about five hours after Sen. Pat Roberts had met with officials of the Robert J. Dole Veterans Affairs Medical Center in Wichita – and three hours after the senator told the Republican Pachyderm Club that he’d received assurances the hospital was “doing just fine.”

“I’m not very happy to see a fax when I’m leaving to find out that’s not the case,” Roberts said Monday.  The fax, also sent to Roberts’ Senate colleague Jerry Moran, contained few details and referred the senators to a Wichita-based public affairs spokesman if they had further questions. The spokesman is on vacation and his replacement . . . [more]

Tuesday 3 June  2014 / Hour 4, Block B:  Robert Zimmerman, behindtheblack.com, in re:  A photographic tour of the new Dragon capsule.  Lots of nice touches, but I have concerns about the touch screens. It is difficult enough to hit the right touchscreen buttons when you sitting in your chair at home. How much harder will it be for an astronaut to do so during a launch, when the capsule is shaking and rocking as it accelerates to orbit. Hard buttons and switches in this situation, giving the astronaut something solid to hold onto, might actually make a lot more sense.

Further details on Google’s proposed 180 satellite constellation for providing internet access worldwide.  The more satellites that can be fit on a single rocket, the cheaper it is to send those satellites into space.  For Google’s plan to fit its budget, the company will have to figure out how to pack more capacity into a smaller package. O3b Networks, the satellite start-up backed by Google, is currently working with 1,500-pound satellites that can provide broadband Internet connectivity. O3b’s first four satellites were launched last June from French Guiana atop a Russian-built Soyuz rocket.  Google reportedly wants satellites that weigh just 250 pounds — and is said to be hiring engineers from Space Systems/Loral, a satellite-building company, to work on the project. If Google could use satellites that small for telecommunications, it would be a “radical advance” in the field, Farrar said.

Russia has moved today to exclude access by the U.S. military to any GPS stations in its territory.  It appears the Russians have has much empty bluster as the Obama administration. When they first said they were going to block access to these stations, they made it sound like they were going to cut-off all access. Instead we learn that it is only limited to U.S. military authorities. Since the stations are mostly used by scientists for geological research, Russia is therefore not really cutting anyone off from anything.

Reminds me of the Obama administration's sanctions against Russia. A big announcement, but then they exclude everything of importance from the sanctions when it appears those sanctions might actually be irritating to either side.  Russia excludes use of GPS stations for military purposes on its territory   Russian Vice-Premier Dmitry Rogozin said on May 13 that Russia would suspend the operation of 11 GPS stations

Tuesday 3 June  2014 / Hour 4, Block C: Henry I Miller, M.D., Hoover & Forbes.com, in re: "A Grieving Mother Acts, While the FDA Dithers."    Vaccination is one of the most important advances in public health in recent centuries.  Hundreds of vaccines have all but eradicated many of the infectious disease scourges of the past.  But outbreaks of Meningitis B (MenB) — which is caused by serotype B of a bacterium called Neisseria meningitidis, or meningococcus — on at least four college campuses during the past eighteen months show that more needs to be done.

Scientists and drug companies have already done their part; what we need now is more-responsible government regulation. But because FDA is unwilling or unable to provide that, the mother of a college-student who died from a rapidly progressive MenB infection has taken matters into her own hands.  Alicia Stillman, a Michigan mother, has shown the heroism that bureaucrats lack. . . .  

Tuesday 3 June  2014 / Hour 4, Block D: James Huffman, Defining Ideas (Hoover Institution), in re:  Do Chimps Have Human Rights?