Tuesday 4 November 2014
Photo: Joni Ernst, who tonight became the first woman to represent Iowa in the Senate; above: in a TV ad
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Co-hosts: Larry Kudlow, CNBC senior advisor & Cumulus Media radio; Francis Rose, Federal News Radio.
Tuesday 4 November 2014 / Hour 1, Block A: Larry Kudlow, WABC & CNBC; Francis Rose, FRN; in re: The national midterm elections, with early announcements, and admonition.
NH-1: swung back & forth, with 15% in. Maine-1: Gov LePage leading 47-45. Mass-6: not yet. Angus King, Independent from Maine, will convert to GOP – as will Joe Manchin (WV). res Obama said [something like, "This is the worst midterm election since Noah"].
Tuesday 4 November 2014 / Hour 1, Block B: Veronique de Rugy, Mercatus Center, in re: In Virginia, Mark Warner & Ed Gillespie in tight US Senate race. Virginia is not, as it turns out, a wholly blue state. The McAuliffe race in June was also a surprise; pollsters need to revise their models. And political consultants need to have an attitude improvement about candidates' running on policies. Gillespie ran on: what'll we do to put Virginia and the country back on its feet? How did all the [pundits] miss seeing the lawn signs? Ed Gillespie briefly ran an ad on Warner's scandal – issue of nepotism . . . Virginia: northern precincts submitting results; pro tem, Ed Gillespie's lead is holding. Florida: lead over Charlie Crist. ["Scott staves off Crist in Florida"]
"Shifts in Northern Virginia have boosted Democrats in recent years, and the state's other metro areas have become increasingly competitive. Although Democrat Terry McAuliffe won the governor's seat in 2013, disdain for the Affordable Care Act was and remains a central issue. Sen. Mark Warner's reelection bid in Georgia: Purdue. 2014 has been closely monitored by Republicans who are eager to flip the seat."
Republican David Perdue beat Michelle Nunn to replace Sen. Saxby Chambliss in Georgia, winning outright a race that many predicted would go into a runoff.
Tuesday 4 November 2014 / Hour 1, Block C: John McLaughlin, (eminent) pollster, John McLaughlin & Associates, in re: Comstock's win tonight – not surprising, as she worked really hard. Seems to be headed for a decisive win; meanwhile, Gillespie within 5 points of Warner. The surprise of the night may be Virginia. Northern VA anxiety about jobs, even though it’s dominated by federal employees. Hampton Roads job cuts. The sequester hurt Virginia disproportionately. Out West, anxiety in coal country. North Carolina: Kay Hagan (D) 48.5% Thom Tillis (R) 48%. Virginia: 92% precincts reporting, Gillespie ahead.
Tuesday 4 November 2014 / Hour 1, Block D: Salena Zito, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review & Pirates fan, & Mary Kissel, Wall Street Journal editorial board & host of OpinionJournal.com; in re: Florida – Rick Scott ("the Teeth") isn’t merely a terrible politician – he's not a likable guy. Lousy candidate, cannot explain the genuinely good work he's done: repaired the state's finances. Crist – "the Tan – is one of the sleaziest pols in the country (along with Grimm of Staten Island). . . . GOP never explained why the economy crashed in 2008, let the government say it was the banks – which is inaccurate; it was governmental fooling-around with he economy. West Virginia: Shelly Moore Capito wins; she was the first convert from Dem to Republican. She's also the first GOP from WV in 56 years. Her first statement: "I want to work with Sen Joe Manchin." Rahall, a Dem, will lose.
Tuesday 4 November 2014 / Hour 2, Block A: Mona Charen, National Review Online, & David M Drucker, Washington Examiner Senior Congressional correspondent in Louisville, KY, in re: Surprises all over the map tonight. Tom Cotton in Arkansas; Mark Udall loses; Jean Shaheen wins . . . Ergo, plus-four Republicans. Forced Shaheen and Warner to run serious races and keep their money in their own states rather than distributing it nationally. Mark Warner is the most popular political figure in Virginia, former governor, independently rich, outspent Gillespie more than two-to-one; remarkable that Gillespie has accomplished something amazing – esp since he was intended to be a place-holder. No one gave him a chance, since he had no money – but it’s a race. Now: 96% of polls are in: Gillespie leading by over 200K. How did everybody miss this? Is this a freak, or a new model? Have to do a post-mortem to find out. Not much polling done in this race since no one thought it would be interesting. What can we learn from Ed Gillespie's success so far? No question but that the president dragged Warner down – ISIS, ebola, the economy – but reform conservatives have been saying that we need to refocus on the middle class, rather than just small businesses. NRSC chair tweeted: "Rs in the Senate need to govern." . . . Nobody saw this coming. Spent $6mil in NC, but missed VA.
A recount is possible in the razor-thin race. According to Virginia law, if a candidate loses by "not more than one percent of total vote," the defeated candidate may appeal to the State Board of Elections for a recount. If the margin is less than 0.5 percent, local counties and cities would have to pay for the recount.
Tuesday 4 November 2014 / Hour 2, Block B: Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor; in re: . . . national GOP put no money in this, missed something that was right under their noses. Outstanding precincts in Fairfax Co (heavily blue) – the squeaker of the night. . . . Iowa now called for Joni Ernst – thus the GOP has control of the Senate with a net six seats, and ten is possible. Scott Walker re-elected in Wisconsin. the danger zone for the GOP: to read this as an affirmative vote or the Republicans. It's not that the Republicans are doing so well; rather, that the Democrats have been abjectly awful. GOP will swiftly have to start [governing wisely]. Must give voters a positive, compelling reason to vote for you.
Tuesday 4 November 2014 / Hour 2, Block C: Gene Countryman, KNSS, & John Fund, National Review Online, in re: Noah Rothman tweets: Topeka is the only place voting for Mr Orman. Wichita tends to be more industrial (i.e., Kansans live in Wichita; outsiders, in Topeka). GOP's dismal showing among minority voters hitherto; but Dems' polling is dwindling now as Republicans are doing better among all minority voters (including Native Americans), save African-Americans.
Tuesday 4 November 2014 / Hour 2, Block D: Thaddeus McCotter, WJR, The Great Voice of the Great Lakes, in re: Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa. GOP does not do well in certain elections; GOP establishment can’t find he right persons in advance. "As a recovering politician, I love everybody . . . " "The storm before the calm."
Tuesday 4 November 2014 / Hour 3, Block A: Bill Whalen, Hoover Institution, in re: Fox says it's a net GOP gain of five - plus Iowa; however, if you use all your fingers and toes to count, it’s at least 51 seats now and 54 in 2015 after runoffs If Gillespie wins, it’ll be a major flip, and in any case probably go into a recount. Congratulations to the Gillespie team! He ran one ad: Isn’t it stupid, considering everything that's happening, for the Congress to focus on the name "Redskins"? Since FDR, Dems have been a party of government – and under this president, a hue failure of government – economy, ISIS, ebola. . . . Kasich and Scott will both race to the mic to claim pre-eminence for the coming presidential election. GOP has plus-six with t he strong possibility of plus-nine. Alaska has always been a good court in which the GOP can play; report in a few hours..
Tuesday 4 November 2014 / Hour 3, Block B: Stephen Moore, chief economist, Heritage Foundation, in re: . . . Illinois traditionally run by Democrats – incl the teachers's unions. Biggest tax increase in the history of Illinois caused Pat Quinn to lose. The Cook Co, machine was rejected – massive unfunded mandates, headed to ruination. Bruce Rauner is a hedge fund manager; went into Black neighborhoods and churches, asked, "What have the Dems done for you? I'll fix the schools and the streets." Is this a Republican victory or a Democratic loss? A Democratic loss. The big issue is one's paycheck. The way the GOP can earn back the trust of voters is to govern – pro-energy policy, reduce tax rates, in order to win in 2016. Will the president work with the GOP, or just agitate? He'll have to be at least a bit cooperative or he'll go down in history as having the least-productive last two years. Hillary: "Businesses don't create jobs" is the most damaging thing she's said; must have been pressed thither by Elizabeth Warren.
Tuesday 4 November 2014 / Hour 3, Block C: Devin Nunes, CA-22, in re: recap of the evening, Congr. Nunes is smiling. In California, we continue to count votes for two weeks, have to watch the absentee ballots carefully. Dems harvest Cal votes before the election: ballots mailed out 30 days ahead. If he recipient signs for it, then the ballot finds its way to the polls, it’s counted. "Don’t ask/don’t tell policy." A petri dish for fraud. "Public employees unions just give their ballots up." Four years ago, a GOP member was four points ahead; seventeen days later, the Dems had a two-point victory. Cal-26, Ventura Co.: a freshman vs a war veteran (Afghanistan): election is too close to call. Late-counted absentee ballots generally run against Republicans. Coastall areas are Dem, inland are GOP. Without gerrymandering, we’d have 23 seats, but because of the Dem machine here we have 15 seats. Pres Obama has called a meeting of leaders for Friday. Anxiety is abut conflict, of which we've had enough (or the passivity of Harry Reid, who's [obeyed] Pres Obama consistently). Problems worldwide continue to pile up. David Valadao, CA-21: The 21st Congressional District is a battleground in 2014. He and Amanda Renteria (D) advanced past the blanket primary on June 3, 2014, and will face off in the general election.
Tuesday 4 November 2014 / Hour 3, Block D: Carson Bruno, Hoover, in re: As the nation moves toward the GOP, California re-re-elects Jerry Brown. GOP candidates winning today had a lot of money to work with [except Virginia]. Down-ballot candidates. Fresno. Secy of State in Cal is the most competitive race: Pete Peterson is leading, but 5 million or 6 million votes yet to be counted. Proposition: rainy-day fund. Prop 46: you don't trust your doctors – drug-test your physicians? Written by trial attys as a ruse to raise the cap on malpractice lawsuits. Used to be $250K; lawyers trying to get $1 million. Voters seem not to be tricked by this. Prop E in SF/Berkeley: tax soda pop.
Tuesday 4 November 2014 / Hour 4, Block A: Stephen F. Cohen, NYU & Princeton professor Emeritus; author: Soviet Fates and Lost Alternatives: From Stalinism to the New Cold War, & The Victims Return: Survivors of the Gulag after Stalin; in re:
Tuesday 4 November 2014 / Hour 4, Block B: Stephen F. Cohen, NYU & Princeton professor Emeritus, and author (2 of 4)
Tuesday 4 November 2014 / Hour 4, Block C: Stephen F. Cohen, NYU & Princeton professor Emeritus, and author (3 of 4)
Tuesday 4 November 2014 / Hour 4, Block D: Stephen F. Cohen, NYU & Princeton professor Emeritus, and author (4 of 4)
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