Wednesday 14 May 2014
Photo, above: Geirangerfjord, Norway.
Norway,one of the most magnificently beautiful nations on Earth, historically among the most ethical, now rich from oil, has shamed itself by rudeness to HH the Dalai Lama in a futile effort to kiss the hem of Xi Jinping and the unelected tyrants of Beijing. A Viking tragedy.
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Co-hosts: Gordon Chang, Forbes.com. Dr. David M. Livingston, The Space Show.
Hour One
Wednesday 14 May 2014 / Hour 1, Block A: Arthur Waldron, Lauder Professor of International Relations in the Department of History at the University of Pennsylvania, in re: China and Vietnam.
Violence in the South China Sea: China installs an oil rig well inside Vietnam's Exclusive Economic Zone; here, unusually, a small, decisive use of force can avert a much worse force later. Vietnam needs to destroy that intrusive rig at the same time that the Philippines removes China's illegal intrusion.
Disposition among primates is to freeze at the first sign of aggression; in 1994, Huang Hua said China would take back all these territories. Had we stopped Hitler in 1936, his arrogation of the Rhineland, there would have been no World War II. The ultimate stakes here are Japan and South Korea – although China has now included Indonesia. Standoff started 1 May; PLA Navy has a calendar. The Calendar of 1930: meeting in Washington, "controlling the arms race" – every major power coming out of a period of feudal decline has a military class that included a radical group. These can be controlled, but need to be attended to swiftly. Right now, China has the shiniest military, is acting immediately. Lots of Chinese generals and admirals are itching to ffight, emotionally want to go to war; are very powerful in the military system while civilians are fighting among themselves. Pres Obama's recent embassy went to Tokyo, Seoul, KL and Manila; so China moved on Hanoi. Expect new tensions; certainly, Japan will not roll over. Vietnam, the size of Germany; if VN takes out the rig and takes on China, can do a lt of damage to a Chinese expeditionary force. China is counting on nonreaction – we’ve taught them that. However, eventually, one says "This has gone too far."
Wednesday 14 May 2014 / Hour 1, Block B: Lisa Curtis, senior researh fellow at the Heritage Foundation, in re: the Indian election. Modi, BJP; Gujarat – 2002 riots when a thousand people were killed over three days, most of them Muslims; he's guilty of not having stopped the riots, which led to revocation of his US visa in 2005. Party has refocused; opportunity to re-boot US-India relations. One person with whom Pres Obama will not meet is Raoul Gandhi – he ran a lackluster campaign, is heart not in it. A disappointment; his political future in question. Not to rule out Congress Party, as his sister might carry the flag. Ravi Shankar Prasad says, Mr Modi will be aggressive. How about China? Yes, we'll see a much more robust foreign policy under BJP – i.e., a much more active hedging activity vis-à-vis China. Recall border incident in 2013 when China crossed into Indian territory and set up camp for a few weeks.
Wednesday 14 May 2014 / Hour 1, Block C: Hotel Mars, episode n. Bill Harwood, in re: Chill in the air between NASA and Roscosmos. Last night Russian and American returned after 188 days on ISS. Dmitry Rogozin, Dep Min defense, didn’t threaten ongoing contract to launch and return Russian and intl astronauts. RD180 rocket (United Launch Alliance, has 16 engines sotred, & partner) – Atlas 5 uses the Russian rocket. Rogozin said, "Bo one may use the RD180 if it carries a military payload." Oops – there exists no replacement. Also, the space station: possible grinding halt in 2020 unless the Russians can see some cost-benefit. There are sanctions n Russia; he's applying the equivalent of sanctions on the US. US Air Force has chartered a panel to see what alternatives the US may have. Look for escalation.
Wednesday 14 May 2014 / Hour 1, Block D: Isaac Stone Fish, Foreign Policy magazine, in re: Norway sells out the Dalai Lama. Norway shuns Dalai Lama, hoping to mend China ties Norway's decision to ignore the Dalai Lama's visit to Oslo this week to avoid upsetting China has drawn criticism in a country that considers itself a beacon of human rights in the world. Unlike on his previous visits to Norway, no government officials will meet the Tibetan spiritual leader and 1989 Nobel Peace Prize laureate during his three-day stay that started Wednesday. The Conservative-led government, which took power last year, has made it a priority to repair relations with China, frozen since jailed Chinese dissident Liu Xiaobo was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2010. High-profile meetings with the Dalai Lama would likely have angered China even more. But critics say oil-rich Norway can afford to stand up to China and may be compromising its principles for no return.
In 2010, Norway awarded the Peace Prize to Liu Xiaobo, who was in jail. China expressed its rage against this; refuses to acknowledge that the Norwegian govt doesn't control the Nobel Prize. Norwegian export of salmon to China constituted 80%? of exports; fell to 25%. Beijing manages excellently its bilateral relations so as to cause each nation to feel disempowered. Spirituality threatens the Communist Party of China. Everything threatens the Chinese leaders. No way to claim that the Dalai Lama or the exiled bishop, can threaten political leadership.
Hour Two
Wednesday 14 May 2014 / Hour 2, Block A: Charles Burton, Brock University, in re: Resources for major powers are stretched across the planet. DPRK: no one can expect a Black Swan. What would that look like in North Korea? Imagine a regime collapse, rogue elements take over nukes; China has a Plan B? May be debate about changing relations; to pressure DPRK, thinking of weaning the regime off its dependence on Chinese oil and grain. Significant elements in China benefit from current relations; Chinese military. Lots of money, plus some nuclear testing. Regardless of how badly Pyongyang treats Beijing, Beijing has not abandoned. Under Xi, may prefer to see a stabler North Korean regime. Extreme bad behavior has not done the trick; what might, could be North Korea turning against China. Will Chinese arrogance affect relations? South Korea criticized North Korean human right; DPRK replied that it would obliterate all South Korean leaders. Oops. In the past, Chinese bookstores had no book on DPRK; now, can be found, Change in the wind. Also: the two officials in which Beijing had some hope – the uncle, now murdered, and the envoy to China – no longer on the scene.
Wednesday 14 May 2014 / Hour 2, Block B: Rick Fisher, senior fellow on Asian Military Affairs at the International Assessment and Strategy Center, in re: Pacific Fleet Warships Head to Shanghai for Russia-China Drills. Vladivostok: ship sails to Shanghai for a semaphore of naval exercises with China. World system bifurcates. Huge setback to American foreign policy and power. "Regional power" in Sevastopl and Vladivostok. Strategic bombers, aircraft carriers, space-dominance systems: becoming cooperative; Russia's technology for China's money – the US will hurt by 2020. Russia is prepared to sell S400 (most advanced) to China. Before, Russia sold 2,000 S300s to China. China looks wistfully at the vast, unoccupied Russian Far East; Russia put 120,000 troops in Siberia, and China paid attention erly use of a new class of small nukes in doctrine; much on display in Siberia/Far East last year. Putin wants China to buy its petroleum if he pay his price over a long time. We think Russians also know that as soon as the Chinese are strong enough, China will turn against Russia. Putin thinks he can manage this.
Wednesday 14 May 2014 / Hour 2, Block C: Claudia Rosett, FDD, in re: North Korea doesn not count as a terrorist state according to the US State Department. Its nukes don’t seem to have any importance in the sleepy eyes of Foggy Bottom. DPRK sinks ships, shells islands, commits assassinations around the world, hand has direct links with Hamas, Hezbollah, probably Taliban, probably al Qaeda. Secretary of State has authority to consider as a state sponsor of terrorist a state that gives aid to terrorists It was on the list from 1987, when if blew an airliner out of the skies, till 2008: it was taken off in a nuclear-freeze deal under Bush II that's totally failed. North Korea demanded to be taken off the terrorist list, US acquiesced, obligation was for DPRK to provide a list of its nukes, it hasn't. Let's make a list of egregiously incompetent State Dept officials. What this deed does is deceive the American people. DPRK's whole existence is predicated on committing terror; it sells everything nuclear and other; built a nuclear reactor for Assad in Syria. North Korea is a money-launderer. In 2008, DPRK selling missiles to Sudan – a global pariah and terrorist state. Mrs Clinton approved in cables, was wholly are of the deal and the materiel. "Concerned about Sudanese entities and individuals acquiring the missiles. this is so obvious. What does State gain to maintain the fiction? The eternal hope of US dips that North Korea will go for another deal. (Eek.) Food, fuel, money, favors, all awarded to Pyongyang over the last twenty years.
"Anyone who participates in his own downfall is a chump."
--Bob Law, WWRL 1996.
Eyes Wide Shut to North Korea's Terror Ties News of North Korea is dominated right now by Pyongyang's threats to carry out yet another nuclear test, which would be its fourth since 2006, and its third since President Obama took office. Among the perils, given North Korea's longtime habit of peddling its weapons to rogue recipients around the globe, is that North Korean nuclear arms could end up in the hands of terrorists. All the more reason, then, to ask why the Obama administration has not put North Korea back on the U.S. blacklist of State Sponsors of Terrorism.
Wednesday 14 May 2014 / Hour 2, Block D: Joseph Sternberg, WSJ Asia editorial board, in re: Paul Gilles. VIEs used to give foreign investors the privileges of ownership with out actually owning. A tax dodge. Francis Cheung, CLSA, quoted, ". . . China needs to de-lever . . ." China in general is in a bumpy patch. Need entrepreneurship, fuelled by Internet companies. How to transition from old, State-owned companies to the new economy? How about capital controls? . . . President Xi Jinping said in remarks published May 10 that the nation needs to adapt to a “new normal” in the pace of economic growth and remain “cool-minded” amid what analysts forecast will be the weakest annual growth since 1990. Xi is seeking to tackle threats to an economic boom now in its fourth decade, from mounting debt to air pollution that’s choking the nation’s cities.
“Political rhetoric has already changed with the ‘Chinese dream’ espousing better quality of life rather than faster development,” Francis Cheung, an analyst at CLSA, wrote in a report dated May 8. “China needs to de-lever from overinvestment, high debt, overcapacity, but new growth drivers such as urbanisation and consumption - are not ready to lead economic growth.”
Policy makers have realized the limits of monetary stimulus, Cheung said. The central bank last lowered benchmark lending rates in July 2012, while it cut the amount of cash that banks must set aside as reserves in May that year.
“The overriding factor in the short term is the slowdown in growth,” Erwin Sanft, head of China and Hong Kong equity research at Standard Chartered Plc, said in interview on May 12 in Hong Kong. “The market knows these things are positive but while the economy is slowing down, it’s hard to escape the fact that all the short-term data will be weak.”
Hour Three
Wednesday 14 May 2014 / Hour 3, Block A: Monica Crowley, Fox News, in re: Bill Clinton Rebuts Speculation on His Wife’s Health Former President Bill Clinton said there was “nothing to” remarks by Karl Rove that Hillary Rodham Clinton might have suffered a “traumatic brain injury” in a 2012 fall.
Wednesday 14 May 2014 / Hour 3, Block B: Bret Stephens, WSJ GLOBAL VIEW, in re: Iran Doesn't Want a Deal
Wednesday 14 May 2014 / Hour 3, Block C: Mary Anastasia O'Grady, WSJ, in re: The 'Dialogue' in Venezuela Is a Fraud
Wednesday 14 May 2014 / Hour 3, Block D: Salena Zito, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review & Pirates fan, in re: Shelley Moore Capito, Natalie Tennant to face off in W.Va ... Poll: Tom Wolf leads Allyson Schwartz in Pennsylvania ... Pennsylvania's Democratic gubernatorial primary appears to be Tom Wolf's to lose with just six days left to Election Day, a new Franklin and ...
Hour Four
Wednesday 14 May 2014 / Hour 4, Block A: Young Mr. Roosevelt: FDR's Introduction to War, Politics, and Life by Stanley Weintraub (1 of 4)
Wednesday 14 May 2014 / Hour 4, Block B: Young Mr. Roosevelt: FDR's Introduction to War, Politics, and Life by Stanley Weintraub (2 of 4)
Wednesday 14 May 2014 / Hour 4, Block C: Young Mr. Roosevelt: FDR's Introduction to War, Politics, and Life by Stanley Weintraub (3 of 4)
Wednesday 14 May 2014 / Hour 4, Block D: Young Mr. Roosevelt: FDR's Introduction to War, Politics, and Life by Stanley Weintraub (4 of 4)
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