Photo, above: The Sunflower Revolution in Taiwan.

JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW

Co-hosts:  Gordon Chang, Forbes.com.  Dr. David M. Livingston, The Space Show.

Hour One

Wednesday  26 March  2014 / Hour 1, Block A:  Gordon Chang, Forbes.com, in re:  Xi Jinping was in Bruxelles with the G-7 – why?  To discuss nukes?    Putin is undermining China's number-one concern; territorial integrity; but they're forming a major relationship in the form of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Chinese Communist Party has  devil's agreement with the populace: we'll give you a good economy if you won't fuss about trivia like human rights. 

Wednesday  26 March  2014 / Hour 1, Block B: Gerrit van der Wees, Formosan Association for Public Affairs, in re:  on 18 March, 300 students occupied the Taiwanese legislature in protest against both the undemocratic process and esp the content of a sudden agreement that the TW pres is trying to sneak into being, The Crss0Strait Service Agreement. Took over he Executive Ofc Bldg and he Legislature; Ma Yingjeou probably will have to give in as 80% of he population supports the students. Taiwan wants to be closer to democratic countries like the US and Japan, do not want to be pushed into a strangling embrace with the Chinese Communist Party.  Now, Beijing expresses concern (ouch), while Hong Kong people are speaking of occupying LegCo.    Compare Ukraine of a few months ago: unpopular president pressed for ties with Russia that the people did not want.    Kuo Min Tang – Chiang Kai-shek's  old KMT – now seems to be an agent of Beijing.  CCP and KNMT are both in essence Leninist parties: each proclaims itself to be the sole representative of the Chinese people  The Taiwanese DPP says, very nice, but we’re not Chinese, we're Taiwanese.  "Duelling delusionism" – we have no good choices here?  The old KMT is in its last phase.

Wednesday  26 March  2014 / Hour 1, Block C: Alan Stern, NASA, New Horizons project – headed for Pluto and beyond. Pluto is ninth-largest planet; Ireis?? is smaller. We think there'll be hundreds of planets when this is over.  We have 44,000 telemetry points; calibrate instruments . . .  It’s already past Jupiter.  Pluto has at least nine moons. Kuiper Belt: discovered in 1990s by modern telescopes, is the third zone of our planetary system, it’s where Pluto orbits.  One of the most fascinating objects in the Solar System.  Many – most – specialists call Pluto a planet.  New H has color imagers, spectrometers, many instruments to probe Pluto's atmosphere – will writ the book on the whole class of Kuiper Belt planets.  MEVM are a class of small, rocky planets on the inside of the Solar System; the group of over two dozen in the Kuiper Belt: ice on their surface, smallish. Pluto's name was offered by an English schoolgirl.  See: Uwingu, where you can name a crater for as little as $5; the money goes to projects in space. Scan the surface of Mars with your mouse.  This map will go to Mars on 2015, will carry all the names. 

Uwingu.com

Wednesday  26 March  2014 / Hour 1, Block D:  Ying Ma, Hoover; Hong Kong radio show (ChinaTakesOverTheWorld/radio 3); and author, Chinese Girl in the Ghetto;  in re: China says it's above all about investment in infrastructure.  -  Btw, it's abandoned and in fact falling apart..  This story falls neatly into Pres Obama's narrative, his big-government grand infrastructure dreams.  In California, Gov Brown wants to bld a 400-mi high-speed rail line – a length widely proven to be uneconomical.  Pres Obama doesn’t seem to be able to understand that China has grave infrastructure problems. Delusional, and he likes big-govt rhetoric.  In China, municipalities have borrowed much from the central banks and cannot ever pay back. Btw, the Chinese Railroads Ministry is almost bankrupt.    Obama’s inexplicable admiration for China’s infrastructure policy.

Wednesday  26 March  2014 / Hour 2, Block A: Sarah Cook, senior research analyst for Freedom on the Net and East Asia at Freedom House, in re: US First Lady's embassy to China.  Recall Xi in California, when Pres Obama was to have spoken of Chinese cybertheft and crime.  Last month, Kerry in China met bloggers, who said. "It’s getting worse here; we want US help."  Resonates much with Netizens.  Chinese govt takes information and intellectual property and gives it to govt-owned companies.  What's the difference between the cybersurveillance in China and in the US?  Note massive collection of metadata in US, but in China looking systematically at content relating to public health police brutality, et al. – and Chinese govt punishes people for simply debating.  Yes, the Chinese dictatorship is ruthless, but we no longer have the right to reach about govt cyberspying.  By having Michelle Obama visit China, he US is legitimizing a country that mustn't be legitimized. 

Michelle Obama's gentle swipe at human rights in China  During Michelle Obama's conversation with students at Peking University, the first lady emphasized the need for the free flow of ideas – something China has been widely criticized for restricting.  [more]

News you won't be hearing about Michelle Obama's China junket  Evidently the White House realizes that Michelle Obama’s expensive and luxurious family junket to China, accompanied by her mother and daughters, looks like a colossal waste of taxpayer money. That’s the logical explanation for unusual restrictions on media access. No reporters are accompanying her. Even the Obama sycophants at the New York Times are noticing: "Mrs. Obama is drawing scrutiny for her decision to . . ." [more]

Wednesday  26 March  2014 / Hour 2, Block B: Alan Tonelson, Research Fellow at the U.S. Business and Industry Council Educational Foundation, in re:  America's trade deficit with China (see SCMP article). Yuan has fallen by about 3.5% in a few weeks – gives Chinese exporters a big edge in pricing and competitiveness having zero to do with free markets or trade – just how the Chinese govt wants it.  What's Sen Schumer doing about this predatory Chinese trade advantage that's killed so many jobs in this country?   Two trade deals Pres Obama is trying to conclude: PacRim and Eurozone. PacRim agreement ties to include anti-currency-manipulation paragraphs. Investment growth faltering in China, domestic demand is low – all that's left for the Chinese economy is exports.   Air is toxic; soil is contaminated with heavy metals.  Chinese smog has reached Los Angeles.  . . .   Distinguish between US-owned and Chinese-owned auto production in China – benefits flow by and large to the Chinese economy.

Wednesday  26 March  2014 / Hour 2, Block C:  Parris Chang, Taiwanese ambassador, retired; in re: Hundreds of protesters stormed Taiwan's Cabinet offices as they demonstrated against an agreement that would expand trade ties with China, AP reported March 23. The pact is currently awaiting ratification by Taiwan's legislature. The student protests will not likely derail the passage of the agreement entirely, but they will cause continued delays.

Why did the police brutalize the students? Used excessive force against peaceful sit-in; police chief will step down, but the order came from Pres Ma's govt.  Beijing will try to help Ma do a cover-up. [Ma apparently is on Beijing's payroll. –ed.] The students have been ejected from the Excutive Ofc Bldg, but are still in Legislature.  Ma has spoken for years of growing closer to China. Trade Services Agreement – TSA: gives a great deal to China, s very good for Mainland China, but bad for Taiwan, where jobs will be lost and, worse, is quite dangerous to Taiwan's national security, Agreement was secretly written without knowledge of major legislators or industrialists; Kuo Mn Tang tried t railroad it through the legislature. Students were correctly very concerned. This is the most recent in a series of Cross-Straits agreements – all have worked well to China but emphatically not for Taiwan.   Ma may be obliged to make a few concessions on this pact – but his entire career hinges on eventually turning Taiwan over to the Chinese Communist Party in Beijing.  Ma skipped all the checks and balances because he's been able to in the past; and Beijing has been pressuring him a lot recently. The Kuo Min Tang is now annoyed with Ma, who wanted to give this pact as a gift to Xi Jinping by the end of June, at latest.

The ‘Battle of Taipei’ Shows Just How Wary of China Young Taiwanese AreRiot police clash with student protesters outside Taiwan's cabinet offices in Taipei on March 24, 2014. Clashes erupted after Taiwan's President refused to scrap a contentious trade agreement with China and denounced the "illegal" occupation of government buildings by students opposed to its ratification

Taipei police used batons and water cannons to clear protesters from Taiwan’s government headquarters Monday morning. A group of several hundred demonstrators had been occupying Cabinet offices Sunday night as part of a student-led movement against a trade pact with China. The mostly student protesters say the deal hands too much influence to China, is undemocratic and will hurt the island. The government insists it is an economic imperative. By early Monday, people were being pulled from the premises. At least 58 were arrested and 137 were injured, reports the Associated Press.

The scenes of violence seem out of place — for the movement, and for modern-day Taiwan. The student-led campaign gained momentum last week, when a group of demonstrators occupied the parliament in Taipei. They are pushing for a further review of the Trade in Services Agreement (TiSA), a deal that will open certain service sectors to investment from China, and vice versa. The demonstrators spent much of the past week gathered around the parliament chanting and waving colorful cardboard signs. They are mostly young, and their methods largely peaceful. Their emblem is a sunflower, symbol of hope.

The bloody scene in Taipei harks back to a different, darker era. On Feb. 28, 1947, the nationalist Kuomintang, violently suppressed antigovernment protests, killing over 10,000. Almost four decades of martial law followed. It was not until 1986 that an opposition party, the Democratic Progressive Party, emerged and a democracy slowly took root.

Taiwan’s democracy has deepened and grown since, giving rise to a political culture in which people take seriously their right to vote and protest. To some Chinese, particularly in Hong Kong and Macau, Taiwan is a model. The island’s 2012 presidential poll was closely watched by both Special Administrative Regions. At polling stations in downtown Taipei, I met election tourists who had flown from Hong Kong to see what they called a “preview” of Chinese democracy in action.

China and Taiwan have been at odds since 1949, when retreating nationalist forces fled across the strait. The People’s Republic still sees Taiwan as a renegade province and holds out hope for unification, even by force. (Should that happen, the U.S. would be bound, by a congressional act, to help Taiwan.) Taiwan’s current President, Ma Ying-jeou, swept to power in 2008 promising to deepen ties with China and was re-elected in 2012. His push for economic integration has seen cross-strait trade and tourism rise. It has also made him deeply unpopular among certain segments of the population.

To the young people and opposition-party supporters gathered in Taipei, TiSA is another step toward China, and a step too far. They also worry that this latest round of economic liberalization will hurt small and medium-size businesses on the island. More fundamentally, they see TiSA as a sign of Sinification and worry that President Ma and the governing party, Kuomintang, are to keen to trade away the island’s hard-earned, democratic gains.

President Ma and his government say the trade deal will bolster the economy and keep Taiwan competitive with countries like South Korea. Addressing demonstrators on Sunday, he applauded their passion but questioned the decision to occupy government offices. “Is this the sort of democracy we want?” he asked. “Must the rule of law be sacrificed in such a manner? Do we not take pride in our democracy and our respect for rule of law?”

The battle for Taipei has no doubt caught the attention of officials and ordinary people across the Taiwan Strait. The ruling Chinese Communist Party tightly controls the press and censors discussion of sensitive subjects, including Taiwan, from the country’s widely popular microblogs, so the reaction has been somewhat muted. A few applauded the students. Most posts that made it through the censors were critical: “This isn’t the democracy we want,” was the refrain.

But it is Taiwan’s democracy, for better and for worse. And, as the past week’s events show, young Taiwanese will fight for it.

Wednesday  26 March  2014 / Hour 2, Block D:  Joseph Sternberg, WSJ Asia editorial board, in re: Eios(?) shared some technology with Sinopec; now is suing Sinopec for having stolen intellectual property and used it in new factories it's building.  . . .  If a country wants to invest overseas, need to follow the rule of law: a learning opportunity for Beijing. 

Hour Three

Wednesday  26 March  2014 / Hour 3, Block A: Michael McFaul, New York Times, in re:  Confronting Putin’s Russia

Wednesday  26 March  2014 / Hour 3, Block B:  Monica Crowley, Fox, in re: Rick Perry Is the Anti-Sarah Palin; Jeb Bush is thinking about running for president. Here's whom he talks to about it.

Wednesday  26 March  2014 / Hour 3, Block C:  Bret Stephens, WSJ GLOBAL VIEW, in re:  Misunderestimating Vladimir. 

Wednesday  26 March  2014 / Hour 3, Block D:   Simon Constable, WSJ, in re:   Here's something to chew on: Ukraine's farmers are using wheat and con to hedge against the risk of a currency crisis. What's more, the uncertainty in Crimea has the potential to drive prices even higher in markets already worried about supplies from the major grain exporter.

"During the peak of the recent devaluation in the Ukrainian hryvnia, [grain] exports were being held back to provide a hedge against the currency," writes Mark Keenan, an analyst at Société Générale, in a recent report.

It's an interesting twist on safe-harbor assets, which usually sends investors flocking to gold.

Corn and wheat are sold on the global market in U.S. dollars. When the local currency temporarily weakens, growers often sell their grain because they receive more of their own currency when they convert their dollar profits.

The fact that Ukrainian farmers are holding on to their grain shows they're more concerned that the hryvnia could weaken further. The stockpiles of corn and wheat mean farmers will have something that keeps its value when the hryvnia hasn't. The value of one hryvnia has fallen from about 12 U.S. cents at the beginning of this year to 9.5 cents recently.

"This dynamic is often overlooked…especially when [the commodities] are not government-controlled," says the Société Générale report. "These markets are controlled by the farmers."

Any slackening of Ukraine's corn and wheat exports has global implications. Although the U.S. dominates supply of both grains, the U.S. Agriculture Department projects that Ukraine will contribute 16% of the world's exported corn and 6.2% of wheat shipments on the global market this year.

With major volumes at stake, it's no wonder that traders are taking notice.

"The uncertainty about it is probably driving grain markets now, because no one really knows what will be the outcome with Ukraine and the European Union," says Jerry Norton, a grains analyst at the World Agriculture Outlook Board of the USDA. Or more generally, will a military conflict arise between Russia and the West?

What we do know is that corn prices have rallied from about $4.20 a bushel at the beginning of the year to $4.80 recently. Wheat was trading at about $6.10 a bushel in early January, versus $6.98 recently. Both are traded on the Chicago Board of Trade.

The key is to watch the level of the Ukrainian currency, which will "provide more of a lead indicator into how grain prices will change," Société Générale says. In other words, if the hryvnia tanks, then grain prices will surge as farmers withhold exports.

That said, the rally may be relatively short-lived, says Shawn Hackett, author of the Hackett Money Flow Report. Eventually, the farmers must export their grain because they will need the cash to plant next season's crop, he says.

"We see this in Argentina repeatedly," he says. The Argentine peso slipped to a record low in January, the result of failed economic policies and rising inflation, and farmers halted sales of grains and other commodities until the currency stabilized.

When the eventual commodity selling does happen, Hackett sees a "huge crash" in prices as there are already "boatloads of corn, boatloads of wheat."

Hour Four

Wednesday  26 March  2014 / Hour 4, Block A: Nicola Phillips, author, The Profligate Son: Or, a True Story of Family Conflict, Fashionable Vice, and Financial Ruin in Regency England  (1 of  4)

Wednesday  26 March  2014 / Hour 4, Block B: Nicola Phillips, author, The Profligate Son: Or, a True Story of Family Conflict, Fashionable Vice, and Financial Ruin in Regency England  (2 of  4)

Wednesday  26 March  2014 / Hour 4, Block C: Nicola Phillips, author, The Profligate Son: Or, a True Story of Family Conflict, Fashionable Vice, and Financial Ruin in Regency England  (3 of  4)

Wednesday  26 March  2014 / Hour 4, Block D: Nicola Phillips, author, The Profligate Son: Or, a True Story of Family Conflict, Fashionable Vice, and Financial Ruin in Regency England  (4  of  4)

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Music