The John Batchelor Show

Wednesday 28 May 2014

Air Date: 
May 28, 2014

Photo, above: China suddenly invades Vietnam's waters with a billion-dollar oil rig, then attacks Vietnamese craft and brings in missile-armed ships. Courtesy South China Morning Post.  Further, in a photo released by Vietnam's Coast Guard, a Chinese ship shoots water cannon at a Vietnamese vessel while a Chinese Coast Guard ship sails alongside in the South China  

JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW

Co-hosts:  Gordon Chang, Forbes.com.  Dr. David M. Livingston, The Space Show.

Please have a look at:  China Cuts Off McKinsey, Other U.S. Consultants to Retaliate Against Cyber Indictments.  Beijing’s response to Washington’s criminal cases is both swift and comprehensive. read »

Hour One

Wednesday  28 May 2014 / Hour 1, Block A: Scott Harold, associate political scientist at the RAND Corporation, in re: East Asia: situation could go very badly, and the last several days are "slow-intensity conflict": China using small steps to arrogate space with continuous pressure.  Jets next to prop planes: jets travelling so fast they can easily make a small error and create a tragedy.  China declared a no-fly-zone in international air space.  Illegal. Also has tried to keep intl observers away – in this instance, Japanese planes; before, nearly caused a crash with a US naval surveillance vessel.   Pres Obama today spoke in strong favor of Law of the Sea convention and US signing it – it identifies what claims may be made, and is highly relevant to China's behavior toward Vietnam.  Land claims predate the treaty, and China doesn’t feel bound by what it signs. United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).  Americans are slow to be roused, but once it is – watch out.  So far, China has been careful vis-a-vis the Japanese. In South China Sea, knows that there's no US alliance to back them up and so is much rasher. 

Wednesday  28 May 2014 / Hour 1, Block B: Todd Stein, director of Government Relations at the International Campaign for Tibet, in re:  Narendra Modi invited the Tibetan Central Administration to his inauguration; Lobsang Sangay's attendance, as well as that of PMs of Sri Lanka and the Maldives, all most encouraging.  Tibet in exile holds democratic elections; when Nehru invited Tibetans to have a temporary home in India after China invaded Lhasa, it was based on many factors, incl Buddhism having been founded in India.  When Modi campaigned in Arunachal Pradesh (Chinese call it "south Tibet"!), he said that India wouldn’t give an inch.  Conditions of the six millions Tibetans in Tibet: abuses by China continue.  . . .  Tibetan exiles in Nepal: life isn't getting easier because Beijing puts pressure on Nepali govt to keep Tibetans in a box.  . . . Tibet does not want India and China to go to war; might appreciate a little Indian pressure on Beijing to reduce

Wednesday  28 May 2014 / Hour 1, Block C: Hotel Mars, episode n.  John M. Logsdon, professor Emeritus, Space Policy Institute, George Washington University, in re: Elon Musk/SpaceX and the US launcher industry.   US sanctions on Russia: possible weakening of the developing private space industry.  If Russia withdrew from the ISS in 2020, that'd be a setback – and Europe and Japan also not committed. Rogozin said: Circling Earth orbit and delivering something are not enough for a great space nation to do.  See: 2009 report, "our goal ought to be Mars" – we should be going somewhere.  Is NASA drifting from its long-held assumptions? Without Roscosmos, can NASA cooperate with other nations?  US program does not depend on Russia; space station does.  India, China, Japan – have to decide with whom to affiliate (reminiscent of JFK)?  Rogozin also ready to shut down out GPS correctional stations if we don’t allow similar hospitality to Russia.  . . . RD180 engine, blt by Russia, needed for Atlas 5, incl US natl security satellites – US has 16 such engines, and that's the end. Our backup: Delta 4 (totally US heavy-lift vehicle) and SpaceX is pushing to get its engines certified.  Tomorrow, SpaceX will introduce its capsule or launching humans. The breakdown is not between Roscosmos and NASA – its political, between Moscow and Washington. 

Wednesday  28 May 2014 / Hour 1, Block D: Steve Herman, VOA, in Bangkok, in re: Khaosod: Despite Army Officer's Fiery Rants, Anti-#ThaiCoup Protest Largely Peaceful - is.gd/cxd4H3 . Thai Military Focuses on Economy, Warns Anti-Coup ...
 
Thailand's military took its first steps toward revitalizing a battered economy and warned protesters they will not tolerate . . . In heavily tourist areas, might be lifted entirely  (7% of GDP). Foreign direct investment is greater – Honda factory down to 60% of capacity; the longer it goes on, the more the coup will affect. Military coup – face is the Army chief, an ardent monarchist, tough and impatient. The now-governing junta says that removing Thaksin Shinawat and his sister was the main goal of the putsch.  Economic intention: talk of reform and optimistic numbers, but the bungled rice scheme still is problematic, and huge sums have to be paid to rice farmers. Meanwhile, soldiers are sitting inside TV stations censoring.  New way of changing govt: strangle the media.  Talk of a new "gateway"  like China's – censoring content.   Facebook went down for 90 minutes; authorities claimed not their doing but no on believes that.  So national much upset that a coup spokesman had to disavow. For many years, media in Thailand worried about lèse-majesté: "the crime of violating majesty, an offence against the dignity of a reigning sovereign or against a state."

Hour Two

Wednesday  28 May 2014 / Hour 2, Block A: Harry Kazianis, managing editor of the National Interest and a non-resident senior Fellow at the China Policy Institute, in re: billion-dollar oil rig towed by China to sea belonging not to it but to Vietnam; then amphibious craft with missiles and other preparations for a war zone.  Now Reuters says that they've found as, enough for production; Vietnam says, If they claim they’re finding oil with that rig, this definitely will go to conflict.  Recall that China has just sunk a Vietnamese boat.  Mistake on China's part – raises questions about China's goals; might be an excuse for it to bring in more rigs. Just days ago, China flew jets next to Japanese prop planes, causing much-justified alarm.  In South and East China Sea, tensions building to an inflection point, armed SU-27s came within 100 feet of the Japanese prop planes.  This cannot end well. Vietnam, tiny compared to China, may have only a legal option.  Manila is trying this, China is truculent.  Vietnam jus bought six very advanced Russian subs, but it'll take years to learn to use then in an engagement.  Xi and cohort don’t care about intl headlines; won't compromise (would be death for the Communist Party), and focussed on how this looks in domestic politics. A small nation may feel pressed to fight irrespective of the outcome. Therefore this can lead to no end of trouble. China has signed Law of the Sea, but feels free to modify it by any interpretation it wants.  In sum: Vietnam, you’re on your own. 

Wednesday  28 May 2014 / Hour 2, Block B: Alan Tonelson, research fellow at the U.S. Business and Industry Council Educational Foundation, in re: Beijing pressuring IBM to get rid of its servers and use Chinese-made ones. Also went after Cisco to get it out of state-owned enterprises in China.   We should have hit the alarm bell about fifteen years ago.  We’ve run a  grand experiment to induce China to behave as what gurus call "a responsible stakeholder."  Chinese clearly have never, ever accepted this – totally obviously to everyone in the world except US policymakers.  US view holds that capital and business ought to be free to go anywhere in search of efficiencies, better taxes and wages; so each country can specialize in what it excels n. China says, Are you kidding? Chinese economic thinking has not thought that a foreigner ought to have primacy; rather, Chinese firms need to dominate, esp in China.  It’s high time for frank and tough talk but above all for tough and smart action, Need to acknowledge that we've been in a failed experiment for years. need to marginalize China, not enmesh ourselves with Chinese products and services and greater vulnerability to Chinese hacking. 

China Cuts Off McKinsey, Other U.S. Consultants to Retaliate Against Cyber Indictments.  Beijing’s response to Washington’s criminal cases is both swift and comprehensive. read »

Wednesday  28 May 2014 / Hour 2, Block C:  Tunku Varadarajan, Daily Beast, in India, in re: the powerful Congress Party won only 44 seats in the lower house of parliament – punishment for a stagnant economy, a fractured polity, and years of dysfunction.  Modi will get more seats in the upper house, but will do a lot of policymaking by executive order.  . . . Modi will make no concession on natl security, and growth will be led by its economy.   . . . These four tough-guy pragmatists will find a way to do business: Modi & Abe; Modui and Xi;  Modi and Putin The wild card is Obama. Modi invited Nawaz Sharif to his inauguration with all the leaders of SAARC.

It took Nawaz Sharif five days to talk his army into letting him go to Delhi.

Wednesday  28 May 2014 / Hour 2, Block D: Dan Harris, HarrisMoure and ChinaLawBlog in re:  Was in Vietnam during the anti-China rioting.  I didn’t actually see any rioting, but as in both Hanoi and Saigon the next day; saw for police on every corner – Vietnamese govt saw this would be very bad for business. 

China's anticorruption campaign is – in respect to foreign companies – not to protect domestic private companies; we do a lot of work in movie and TV industry, where our clients complain bitterly of repression; fact is, the Chinese govt likes no one who doesn't tow the Party line in information or propaganda. Move against GlaxoSmithKline? In order to look good to Chinese citizens: blame the drug manufacturer for, basically, the bad health care in China.  . . . If transparency won’t happen, then it's in the CCP's interest they'll take advantage of me? No – if there are 30 bikes of which two have bad locks, they’ll get stolen.   

Here’s a Wall Street Journal article from last week by one of my firm’s anti-corruption lawyers that nicely expresses our and my viewpoint on China’s attempts to reduce corruption.   My position is that China is trying to cut down on corruption and though it's going after foreigners and enemies first, so what?  The point is that foreign companies had better start flying right or they're going to face big problems.

Hour Three

Wednesday  28 May 2014 / Hour 3, Block A:  Monica Crowley, Fox, in re: Rand Paul: I want to return to medicine 'at some point'  Sen. Rand Paul, who practiced as an ophthalmologist for 17 years before entering Congress, is back at home performing free eye . . . 

Rand Paul Is a Deeply Cynical Politician. It's his biggest difference ...  When Washingtonians refer to Rand Paul as a different breed of politician than his father, they generally mean it in a good way. The implication . . .

Wednesday  28 May 2014 / Hour 3, Block B: Paul R. Gregory. Hoover & Forbes.com, in re:   Poroshenko Elected Ukraine President; Putin Dodges Promise to 'Respect' Results

- Nature of fighting (esp. Kiev's "anti-terrorist operation") now.

- Poroshenko: His conflicting public statements. Does he have power to do anything resolute in diplomacy? Who, if anyone, controls him?

- Review the essential components of a negotiated settlement (e.g., anent other elections,

NATO membership, the IMF package, a federalized Ukraine, etc.) and where those

components now stand in Kiev, SE UKR, Moscow, D.C.

All this may point to – what's next?

Wednesday  28 May 2014 / Hour 3, Block C:  John Nicolson, Scot, in re: The UK Independence Party. EARTHQUAKE: UK INDEPENDENCE PARTY MAKES HISTORY WITH EU ELECTION VICTORY. "Nutters and fruitcakes" ?

Wednesday  28 May 2014 / Hour 3, Block D:   Robert Zimmerman, behindtheblack.com, in re: Pluto, and space matters.

Hour Four

Wednesday  28 May 2014 / Hour 4, Block A: The Sunni Vanguard: Can Egypt, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia Survive the New Middle East? (The London Center Series... by Jed Babbin, David Goldman and Herbert London (1 of 4)

Wednesday  28 May 2014 / Hour 4, Block B: The Sunni Vanguard: Can Egypt, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia Survive the New Middle East? (The London Center Series... by Jed Babbin, David Goldman and Herbert London (2 of 4)

Wednesday  28 May 2014 / Hour 4, Block C: The Sunni Vanguard: Can Egypt, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia Survive the New Middle East? (The London Center Series... by Jed Babbin, David Goldman and Herbert London (3 of 4)

Wednesday  28 May 2014 / Hour 4, Block D: The Sunni Vanguard: Can Egypt, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia Survive the New Middle East? (The London Center Series... by Jed Babbin, David Goldman and Herbert London (4 of 4)

..  ..  ..