The John Batchelor Show

Wednesday 31 December

Air Date: 
December 31, 2014
Darfur update, see Column Lynch, FP, Hour 3.

 
Photo, above:  What is the future for Darfur? What are the possible military roles for a peacekeeping force in Darfur? And what are the lessons of the Darfur crisis thus far? As many of us gloss over the news stories, perhaps shaking our heads as we turn the page or change the channel, never really trying to understand what is behind the headlines because of the distance or the complexity, here are some answers to these questions -- derived from a variety of sources (below) . . . 
The first lesson, and the one we should have learned from the Rwanda Genocide is that genocide does not happen in anarchy or chaos, it requires political organization. Stopping genocide can usually only be accomplished with the application of external force.
The only external force currently deployed to deal with Darfur is the African Union Mission in Sudan (AMIS). The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) has consistently demonstrated its preference to protect a nation-state’s sovereignty than its citizens, even during genocide (as seen in Rwanda, Cambodia, Bosnia, and Darfur). The UN charter is not very clear and the principle of non-intervention tends to get in the way.
AMIS isn’t sufficient, so who could make a difference in Darfur? Realistically, there are 4 international organizations that could take action in Darfur.
NATO is the only organization capable of handling medium to large-scale enforcement/peacekeeping operations. Right now NATO is providing logistics support to AMIS, but they are unwilling to provide troops for Darfur.
The European Union (EU) could also deploy the 50K-60K-strong quick reaction force within 60 days of notification. But to do so, the EU requires unanimous approval to send such a force. So far, they’ve been unwilling to provide troops for Darfur. The EU is now constructing battle groups of 1500 troops (3 have already been formed).
Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) is able to construct a 10, 500-strong force but requires Sudan’s approval to do it. They have no peacekeeping or peace-building experience.
The African Union (AU) sponsors the only force present in Darfur (AMIS). Thus far, they have been unwilling to empower its troops other than for self-defense. Article 4(h) permits AU intervention to stop war crimes and genocide but the clause has not yet been invoked. The G8, NATO and EU are providing financial support to AMIS. Part of the problem is that the AU is struggling to collect dues from member nations (they currently have a $35 million shortfall). AMIS has about 3300 troops to cover a large area with a population of 6 million. AMIS is too small for the area and population
Other countries could also provide troops. France has troops at the Chad-Sudan border but it’s in support of Chad, not Darfur. The UK and the U.S. are unwilling to provide troops for Darfur.
Is the Darfur Crisis a Genocide? An appeal directly to the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide (of 1948) has not been exercised.
What caused the Darfur crisis? In short, it began with common disputes over free arable land started to get violent. Darfur’s justice system remains unable to resolve the disputes. Also contributing is a pervasive Islamic ideology (eye for an eye…, the Shari’a). The past North-South conflict in Sudan motivated the West to take arms and rebel. A Government of Sudan (GoS) decision to crush the rebels before they gain international recognition and disrupt the North-South accord.  [more]
---text courtesy of  John Fenzel, with thanks.
http://johnfenzel.typepad.com/john_fenzels_blog/2007/05/trying_to_under....
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Hour One
Wednesday  31 December  2014 / Hour 1, Block A:  Gina Kolata NYT, in re:  author, The Smart Patient: Mistakes We Make about Our Health-and How to Avoid Them by Gina Kolata (1 of 2)
Wednesday  31 December  2014 / Hour 1, Block B:  Gina Kolata NYT, in re:  author, The Smart Patient: Mistakes We Make about Our Health-and How to Avoid Them by Gina Kolata (2 of 2)
Wednesday  31 December  2014 / Hour 1, Block C:  Jack Hitt, NYT, in re:  robots.
Wednesday  31 December  2014 / Hour 1, Block D:   Jeanna Smialek, Bloomberg, in re:  millennial investors.
Hour Two
Wednesday  31 December  2014 / Hour 2, Block A:  Mary Kissel, Wall Street Journal editorial board; Lanhee Chen, Hoover; Doug Rivers, Hoover Fellows; Bill Whalen, Hoover; in re:  Midterms 2014 (1 of 4)
Wednesday  31 December  2014 / Hour 2, Block B: Mary Kissel, Wall Street Journal editorial board; Lanhee Chen, Hoover; Doug Rivers, Hoover Fellows; Bill Whalen, Hoover; in re:  (2 of 4)
Wednesday  31 December  2014 / Hour 2, Block C: Mary Kissel, Wall Street Journal editorial board; Lanhee Chen, Hoover; Doug Rivers, Hoover Fellows; Bill Whalen, Hoover; in re:  (3 of 4)
Wednesday  31 December  2014 / Hour 2, Block D: Mary Kissel, Wall Street Journal editorial board; Lanhee Chen, Hoover; Doug Rivers, Hoover Fellows; Bill Whalen, Hoover; in re:  (4 of 4)
Hour Three
Wednesday  31 December  2014 / Hour 3, Block A:  Heather Knutson, David Livingston, in re: Hotel Mars, exo-planet discoveries.
Wednesday  31 December  2014 / Hour 3, Block B:  Joshua Fisher, NYT, in re:  bees.
Wednesday  31 December  2014 / Hour 3, Block C:  Colum Lunch, FP, in re:  Darfur (1 of 2)
Wednesday  31 December  2014 / Hour 3, Block D: Colum Lunch, FP, in re:  Darfur (2 of 2)
Hour Four
Wednesday  31 December  2014 / Hour 4, Block A:  Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor;   Midterms 2014. (1 of 2)
Wednesday  31 December  2014 / Hour 4, Block B: Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor;  continued (2 of 2)
Wednesday  31 December  2014 / Hour 4, Block C: Adam Nossiter, NYT, in re:  Central African Republic.
Wednesday  31 December  2014 / Hour 4, Block D:   Carl Zimmer, in re:  Neanderthals.