JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Colleagues: Gordon Chang, Daily Beast, and David Livingston, The Space Show
 
Hour One
Wednesday 4 November 2020 / Hour 1, Block A: Gregory R Copley: Defense and Foreign Affairs; Gregory R Copley, The New
Total War of the Twenty-first Century and the Trigger of the Fear Pandemic, in re:
Mr Biden, and foreign affairs: Europe, Middle East, Asia.
Europe: probable slowdown of move of US forces out of Germany (Germany would get the income from those troops); the appearance of more harmony in NATO but deceptive, as its mandate is the common defense, whereas with Biden there’d be less pressure on Merkel to apply a full 2% to defense Also, no more legal pressure to stop the Nordstream pipeline through the Baltic. A short-term [situation] enabling Russia to continue its move into Europe. Also: China moves into Europe.  Biden intending to have a conversation with Ramlah/the Palestinian Authority; further, restore the Iran deal. What of the Abraham Accords? Biden administration has no real strategic aims in the Middle East beyond undoing what Trump has done.  Iranians not interested in doing or renewing any deal.  Biden policy would be a continuing of Obama policies: support Turkish radicals (Muslim Brotherhood), Qatar, et al.    All do nothing for US security.
No one has worked harder for a Biden administration than Xi Jinping—to get relief from the pressures that Trump has put on China. In medium- and long-term, China is in economic free-fall; hopes to consolidate its arrogation of territory in the South China Sea, and perhaps be [kinetically] aggressive against Taiwan.
Wednesday 4 November 2020 / Hour 1, Block B:  Gregory R Copley: Defense and Foreign Affairs; Gregory R Copley, The New 
Total War of the Twenty-first Century and the Trigger of the Fear Pandemic, in re:
Mr Trump: if h can consolidate the Abraham Accord, bring in Oman and perhaps get Saudi under control; help resolve the Cypriot-Egyptian gas fields disputes; also the Nile dispute between Ethiopia and Egypt. If so, he’ll restore US influence over Red Sea sea lanes, which is critical.
Might see construction of a viable [economic] regime in the Red Sea area.  Also can start to look at Iran in a new context. Also, aid the bloc of Central Asian states, thereby facilitating trade from the Indian Ocean to [Europe].  A profound impact on the regional economy and separate Russia from being a [necessary] intermediary.
He’ll have to counter a restless India, which might start another war with Pakistan to link itself with Central Asia through Gilgut.
Russia: Syria Ukraine? Baltics?  US an Russia have separate and competing interests; but for he past five years, and attempt to paint Russia as though it was the USSR and untouchable—for domestic purposes; stopped Trump. If US wants to [  ] PRC, he’ll have to do that in conjunction with Russia, pull it away from its dependence on China.
Hong Kong:  HK, Tibet, Xinjiang Mongols – US and allies should work toward inspiring independence movements to break up China. CHna has broken up and reassembled many times,
Wednesday 4 November 2020 / Hour 1, Block C:  Steve Yates: 葉望輝, @YatesDCIA, @dciadvisory, former deputy national security advisor to Vice President Cheney and currently CEO of DC International Advisory;  and Gordon Chang, @GordonGChang, Daily Beast; in re:  The reaction of China and Taiwan to the U.S. election.  If Mr Biden becomes president, a lot of uncertainty in Taiwan. Under Trump, Taiwanese people have seen material improvement of relations and [safety].  The multiple-decades career of Biden anent Taiwan.  Every new president tries to establish cordial relations with Beijing—Trump did. Taiwanese govt  remains neutral toward the US election, but its press is most favorable to Trump’s policies.
If Mr Trump remains president: Secy Pompeo would stay in place for a time—he’s been the most public critic of PRC deeds and the world, and [upheld] Taiwanese dignity. Matt Pottinger speaks Mandarin fluently, has a warm spot for democracy.
Chinese currency moves : US election, or else Ant Group IPO.  Would Biden continue arms sales already promised to Taiwan?  [Unlikely]—probably put them on pause.  Trump administration  has correctly identified the threat of the PRC. 
Wednesday 4 November 2020 / Hour 1, Block D: Roger W Robinson, @pssi_prague, chairman of Prague Securities Studies Institute; and Gordon Chang, @GordonGChang, Daily Beast; in re:   The Guardian: “Jack Ma is tamed” [by suspending the Ant IPO]   Ma is China’s richest man. Alibaba; Alipay has over a billi0n Chinese users (58% mkt share)).  The Ant Group was expected to mount the largest IPO in history, so Xi and the CCP could see Ma as an existential threat.
Ma said in a speech, “China has a pawn-shop mentality in finance/economics” —which didn't sit well with the party elders. "This is the communist party eating one of its own." There were $3 trillion dollars invested in this IPO – imagine the CCP watching this level of power.  This is a political invention that should signal that investment in China is in a casino; a sort of mafioso circumstance behind the scenes. CCP cannot control Ma’s power; have done so now in a ham-handed and destructive way in the global markets.  Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan Chase, and Citigroup, US investors, probably found out from the press—humiliating.   https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/nov/04/jack-ma-ant-group-is-tamed-social-media-reacts-after-china-blocks-ipo
 
Hour Two
Wednesday 4 November 2020 / Hour 2, Block A:  Salena Zito, @SalenaZito, @DCExaminer, @RealClearPolitics; New York Post, CNN; Middle of Somewhere column; in re:  Mahoning Co, Ohio.   Black Monday in 1977 where 5,000 people lost their jobs in one day.   Sister county Trumbull almost went for Trump—missed by 1 percentage point. He state line of Ohio-Pennsylvania.
Wednesday 4 November 2020 / Hour 2, Block B:  Salena Zito, @SalenaZito, @DCExaminer, @RealClearPolitics; New York Post, CNN; Middle of Somewhere column; in re:  . . . Always shenanigans in PA: the problem when one party controls the whole process.
Wednesday 4 November 2020 / Hour 2, Block C: Robert Zimmerman, BehindtheBlack.com; in re:   In Zvezda, an inch-long hairline crack.  Not accessible.  Have taped it over for temporary solution;  expect to do a space walk to find the exterior of the crack and permanently repair it in December.  If this is a stress fracture, can expect it to continue to grow.  SpaceX and the Starship hop: a live stream of the 11-mile (50,000-foot) hop up and down: video will show warts and all; “You’ll see every frame that we do.” — Elon Musk.  NASA; Constellations in orbit: satellites from a single company or nation, all of which accomplish the same purpose, e.g., Starlink; OneWeb; Iridium from the Nineties.  NASA commented on a sat license app: opposition because of interference with other sats, an the large antennae will make it hard to manoueuver around them, but still puzzling.  US court order to India’s space agy to pay $1.2 billion: antedates Modi, back to 2004/2011. Commercial arm of the Indian space agency made a private deal to develop commercial sats in orbit.  The govt would build it, the company would commercialize the bandwidth.  The Indian govt arbitrarily broke the deal, with allegations of payoffs.   This will crimp US-Indian partnerships. ESA/Ariana 6.  
Wednesday 4 November 2020 / Hour 2, Block D: Robert Zimmerman, BehindtheBlack.com; in re:  Climate scientists: These people fly more than any other researchers in any other field—average of five air trips per year; elders actually fly nine times a year. These are the ones who insist we stop flying.  /  We seem to be facing the end of the solar minimum (for seven months, no sunspot).  Sunspots began again in January, have the hallmarks of belonging to the next cycle toward a solar maximum (a weak one), perhaps five years in the future.
 
Hour Three
Wednesday 4 November 2020 / Hour 3, Block A: John Catsimatidis,  @JCats2013, @CatsRoundtable, Red Apple Media & Cats Roundtable radio, in re: Heavy NYPD presence in front of Trump Tower. Credit to NYPD, as well as John Catsimatidis’s urging the mayor to “assure every New Yorker that they’ll be safe in the streets, safe to vote.  People who normally riot were on their best behavior. Today, I again tweeted to the mayor and thanked him.”  There’s no supermajority in the New York State Senate! God is watching over us.  The election is over, politics is over.  I call on Governor Cuomo: Let’s reopen New York City. About 99.9% of people who get Covid recover.  Nicole Malliotakis defeated Max Rose of Staten Island and south Brooklyn—common-sense Democrats were fed up and voted for rationality, for reason. The stock market skyrocketed today because both parties are in charge in Washington now. 
Wednesday 4 November 2020 / Hour 3, Block B:  Hotel Mars, episode n.  #HotelMars. Douglas Messier, @spacecom, Managing Editor, Parabolic Arc; and David Livingston: @SpaceShow  #HotelMars in re:  To Europa, in orbit around Jupiter, a frozen mystery—is there an ocean  under he cracks of he ice?  Might be a source of something moving. NASA wants to launch Europa Clipper pencilled in in 2024.  Congress demands it use SLS, so delay of a year or more. Maybe arrive by 2028.  Or Falcon Heavy, launch in 2024, go for six years. The big question is cost: save $1 billion to 1.5 billion in savings?
Wednesday 4 November 2020 / Hour 3, Block C:  Scott W. Harold: @ScottWHarold, @RANDCorporation; Deputy Director of the Rand Center for Asia-Pacific Policy; and Gordon Chang, @GordonGChang, Daily Beast, in re: Japan's reaction to the US election. Japan is the United States’s strongest ally in the region.   If Biden is in the Oval Office, what will that mean to Japan, and to the Quad?  Based on what the candidates have said, a strong future with either Biden or Trump. . . .  Intend to impose costs on China, to help it [conduct itself better]. Trump asking allies to pay more to host US forces; contentious in South Korea; Trump asked for Japan to quadruple its contribution, from $2 billion to $8 billion.
The Quad: Australia, Japan, India, US.  Biden wants to run an “allied-positive” operation. Japan’s new PM, Yoshihide Suga, was chief cabinet secretary under Abe, is very low-key but tough.  Ready to sell weapons to Indonesia.    Will enhance and tighten relations with the US; not [succumb] to t`ien hsia  天下  — that is, “the lands, space, and area divinely appointed to the Emperor by universal and well-defined principles of order,” being Chinese hegemonic control over basically the whole world. 
Wednesday 4 November 2020 / Hour 3, Block D:  Cleo Paskal, @CleoPaskal, non-resident senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, and Gordon Chang, @GordonGChang, Daily Beast, in re:  India's reaction to the US election. Joe Biden chaired the Senate Foreign Relations Committee; Pompeo was in India last week signing satellite-sharing operations; deep connections in intell, pharmaceuticals, defense.  Article 370 about human rights: both Biden and Harris spoke of it, but backed off.   Now, connecting Palestinian matters with Pakistan.  India has a big, vibrant, noisy defense-policy discussion in think tanks.  After the Chinese waged war on the border, the US stepped up to the plate, which much reduced criticism of US and is appreciated.  Now, discussion of India-Tibet border.  Modi [?] went to Sri Lanka, Maldives, Indonesia. Trump on the Quad: moving quickly. Biden on the Quad? No info.
 
Hour Four
Wednesday 4 November 2020 / Hour 4, Block A: Andrew C McCarthy, @AndrewCMcCarthy, Ball of Collusion; and Thaddeus McCotter, @ThadMcCotter, American Greatness, in re:  The GOP filed a petition for a writ of certiorari [by which an appellate court decides to review a case at its discretion]—for an expedited review before Election Day. Court declined, but the case remains in front of the Court.  Ballots separated?  Good news:  State of PA sent a letter to judges to segregate the ballots.  Will this make any difference? “Chief Justice Machiavelli.” 
Wednesday 4 November 2020 / Hour 4, Block B: Andrew C McCarthy, @AndrewCMcCarthy, Ball of Collusion; and Thaddeus McCotter, @ThadMcCotter, American Greatness, in re: A veteran of the canvass of 2020: Thaddeus in Michigan. Election observers standing in a room all night.  Cobo Hall in Detroit.   People inside covered up the windows— outsiders were banging on the glass. No instance of systemic voter fraud there. Election observers were to stand back six feet, not interact or disturb the counters. Not adversarial.  We filed a lot of [questions].  Mr Trump has a sizable lead in Pennsylvania—which will be hard to overcome absent manufactured votes. 
Wednesday 4 November 2020 / Hour 4, Block C: Joseph Sternberg:  @josephsternberg, @WSJOpinion; Political Economics column; WSJ editorial board; in re: New UK lockdown for the “second wave”; much public objection—also in Italy, France and Germany.   Heading into normal influenza season, and can the National Health Service manage? Is the peak past? What data is BoJo looking at—what evidence of impending costs high enough to merit a lockdown? (Even if only till December 2?)  The second lockdown is likely to cause economic disaster, much more than the first did: it’ll hit businesses that haven’t recovered from the first one. More: the Christmas buying season should have started his week.  Boris Johnson has not thought this through. 
Wednesday 4 November 2020 / Hour 4, Block D:  Joseph Sternberg:  @josephsternberg, @WSJOpinion; Political Economics column; WSJ editorial board; in re: Brexit.  Is BoJo causing home goals?   Each side is bringing the other, the whole negotiation, down.  BoJo will now ask for [a bit of economic suffering at home]. France is struggling with terrorism; can hardly ask French fishermen to take losses.  The City of London. France and Germany— Macron and Merkel—don’t want to bail out institutions, but may be stuck in pride.  Hard to explain to their citizens why they may have made concessions to UK.