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JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW

Co-host: Mary Kissel, Wall Street Journal editorial board & OpinionJournal.com.

Hour One

Wednesday   7 May   2014 / Hour 1, Block A: Lanhee Chen; Hoover; Doug Rivers, Hoover; Bill Whalen, Hoover; in re: Lanhee Chen on Bloomberg Surveillance (Bloomberg Television)

Wednesday   7 May   2014 / Hour 1, Block B: Lanhee Chen, Hoover; Doug Rivers, Hoover; Bill Whalen, Hoover; in re:  Politics: 2014, 2016

Wednesday   7 May   2014 / Hour 1, Block C: Lanhee Chen, Hoover; Doug Rivers, Hoover; Bill Whalen, Hoover; in re: GOP Establishment Wins in NC Primary  Thom Tillis, House Speaker and the establishment GOP candidate in North Carolina, edged out a crowded primary field to become his party’s nominee for Senate on Tuesday night. Intraparty warfare in GOP: Republicans off to a good start. We'll know more in the coming weeks.  Watch the Georgia race.  North Carolina is a sort of proxy for 2016.  Every point of presidential approval helps a midterm vote; lots of variation around that.

Wednesday   7 May   2014 / Hour 1, Block D: Lanhee Chen; Hoover; Doug Rivers, Hoover; Bill Whalen, Hoover; in re:  Politics: 2014, 2016

Hour Two

Wednesday   7 May   2014 / Hour 2, Block A: Michael Anthony McFaul, Hoover, in re: Olympics, with relaxed meeting with Vl Putin.  US entertained a dual-track engagement, idea I took from Ronald Reagan:  engage the govt, and at the same time have conversations with dissidents. Pres Obama met with Medvedev, then the next day w the opposition. When I did it, Putin really didn’t like it; began a campaign against me and the US, saying I was an agent sent to foment revolution. On May 9, annual military parade, listen carefully to Putin's speech: he said this morning that the referendum on Novorossiya autonomy should not take place (he knew that his armed forces couldn’t carry it off).  Also said he might pull back some of his troops.  John Kerry keeps giving Putin off-ramps, which he doesn’t take.  Putin ahs a lt of cards to play; the Obama Adm has few. This'll go on for years; what I most fear is an all-out war between and invading army and Ukrainian troops. 

Putin makes decisions: sectoral sanctions important? No – front of his mind is he military cost were he to send in active troops? How many lives will be lost during a sustained occupation, which would elicit a guerrilla war for years. Tertiary are sectoral sanctions – Putin has to calculate the economic costs. When he made he Sevastopal decision, he was surrounded by his KGB friends.  Estimates the $200 bil will leave Russia this year. growth at zero, and maybe $30 bil to integrate Crimea. 

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Michael Anthony McFaul, an American academic and diplomat, is a former US Ambassador to Russia. He resigned in February 2014 for family reasons. Prior to his nomination to the ambassadorial position, McFaul worked for the US National Security Council as Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director of Russian and Eurasian Affairs. After his tenure as ambassador in Moscow, McFaul returned to Stanford University as a professor of political science.

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Wednesday   7 May   2014 / Hour 2, Block B: : Michael Anthony McFaul, Hoover, in re: Events are in the saddle.  Why not cut Russia off from the SWIFT banking system?  Shouldn't we impose real costs?  Yes.  Also: lets talk about each option and the timing, Remind: historically, it took us time to gear up to fight the last Cold War.  John Lewis Gadddis's book about Kennan – I had Kennan's photo up in the ambassador's residence.   Reduce energy dependence on Russia? Yes, very much.  Result can be seen in two to five years.    Sanctions should be threatened. Show me the sanctions done by G W Bush, by Reagan.  Mr Timshenko is displeased with current limitation. The sectoral sanctions, however, are designed to have a long-term effect– but once you implement them, that's all you've got - and they laugh. That's a longer sanctions that sometimes work, sometimes not.  It doesn’t mater what we do if we don't have our European allies with us.

Berlin crisis: tit for tat, this for that; can go all the way to nukes.  May 25 – intended Ukrainian presidential election -  is risky because Mr Putin is doing everything in his power to see this election not go forward; we need to do all we can to se that it occurs.  We’re sending American observers – this is an invitation to risk. 

This is not just a bump in the road – won’t go back to business as usual in six months : Putin doesn't think so, so we'd best not kid ourselves. This is reminiscent of, but not at all identical o the old Cold War.  As of yesterday, you have to register if you have more than 3,000 visitors to your site.  He chased out of Russia the guy who invented Russian Facebook, now it’s owned by the owner of Rosneft, a pal of Putin. 

Mr Putin lamented the loss of the Soviet Union; he was trained to think this way since childhood. At he same time, he acknowledged the need to deal with major oil companies so he let Exxon-Mobil into the Arctic. 

Wednesday   7 May   2014 / Hour 2, Block C: Michael Anthony McFaul, Hoover, in re: Russia and the US

Wednesday   7 May   2014 / Hour 2, Block D: Michael Anthony McFaul, Hoover, in re:  Russia and the US

Russia and the world: the costs.  Syria, Iran.  Syria: removing and destroying chem weapons is moving forward slowly. Syrian civil ware: Russians have never been, and still aren’t, cooperative. We should quit seeking their council.  Iran:  Russia, in ht P+1, have been fairly close. So far, I'm struck by how the Russian position on nuclear Iran has not changed (good news). If we get to the deadline this summer with no change Russians might shift.  The real drama for Iran is lifting the sanctions we've imposed. Russia isn’t as central. If it falls through, all bets are off. 

Personally, I've had a few tough interactions with him. Usually with a few people; once in a while, he'd look directly at me, incl once at his house, which is nerve-wracking, He's done that with Secy Clinton and others – it’s one of his techniques.  He's been in power for 15 years; ergo, no one in the Russian govt is really his peer. I've had hard discussions with Pres Obama, and he's not afraid of that, while Putin his.  Putin's world view – his theory about hw the word works, about American power – is rigid. He believes that he US is not afraid to use overt and covert power to overthrow regime we don’t like – Iran n 1950s, Serbia, Orange Revolution, Egypt: he's sure that was all concocted by the US.  This is demonstrably absurd.  Baltics: understandable why they’re frightened, but am encouraged by NATO's response. 

Hour Three

Wednesday   7 May   2014 / Hour 3, Block A:  Monica Crowley, Fox News, in re: Benghazi investigation. Lewinsky is back.

Wednesday   7 May   2014 / Hour 3, Block B:  Devin Nunes, CA-22, in re: Benghazi investigation. Lerner investigation.  California drought. 

Wednesday   7 May   2014 / Hour 3, Block C: Russell Berman, Hoover, in re: Germans are in an important historical position vis-à-vis Russia.  The Germans people remain deeply divided, a cultural legacy of at least 100 years – profile: split between E and W, don’t know to which they belong. Today, in a poll half say it should stand firmly with the West; half says no, shd stand in between E and W and mediate. In the latter case, Germany wd no longer "belong" to the West, wd be in effect neutral and susceptible to the pull of its neighbor the o East, Russia.  Germany  now has a strong pacifist streak.   Those who argue in favor of moving away from the West say "We killed 20 million Russians in WWII and so are obliged to stand with them" – but they neglect to mention the huge, appalling damage they caused in Poland and Ukraine.  Rather, we hear a myopic view of their history, pertaining only to Russia.

Mrs Merkel and her counsellors visited the White House, supposed to be discussing only the NSA scandal but probably also Ukraine.  Not a smooth encounter.    Mrs Merkel grew up in East Germany and speaks both Russian and German fluently, is pretty good in English Her personal inclination is Western, since she lived under Communism.  She's not as emphatically free-market as US libetarianism, but she's a democrat.  She's also  the Chancellor of Germany, with strong elements the population that re anti-American, anticapitalist, and culturally pro-Russian. She mustn't alienate them.  She often takes moderate positions and gradually move ht goal posts – successfully. When she engages n political battle, at he end of the game only she is left standing.  True, the Washington meeting was  a disaster – not Merkel's doing; rather, Obama failed. 

Not surprising that Germany has emerged as the leading European power; if Washington loses Berlin, it’s lost Europe, I think one of Putin's goals is to emasculate the EU and break the trans-Atlantic alliance that's been in effect since Roosevelt supported England in 1939.

Wednesday   7 May   2014 / Hour 3, Block D: Russell Berman, Hoover, in re: Mrs Merkel sees the map of the World Continent – Eurasia. The connection between t he EU economic powerhouse, Germany and Russia is becoming more important.  Russia is working t disconnect the US entirely and, remarkably, the US seems t be endorsing this - which leaves Europe open to Moscow's embrace.  Hollande's political prospects seem to be in the tank – will he play anti-German?  Eke Cameron?  Anti-German sentiment stronger in southern Europe because of he euro crisis.  Don’t underestimate how brutally the Snowden revelations hurt US interests in Germany – their having lived through the Nazis and the Stasi.  US spooks used bad judgment to tap into the Chancellor's mobile phone.

Thrice  - 1916, 19490, and then the Cold War – the US was called on to engage deeply in Europe.  There has to be a force for stability in the world; why not Putin?  Because no transparency, rule of law, private property, free elections.  No thanks.  Absent a rational economic framework so entrepreneurs can bld a business and hire employees, Putin's Russia is dangerous.  Washington still evinces isolationism in a left-wing package.  If that part of the Democratic Party wins – there won't be an escalation, there'll be a retreat. 

Hour Four

Wednesday   7 May   2014 / Hour 4, Block A:  Henry Miller, Hoover, in re:   Frankenfish. 

Wednesday   7 May   2014 / Hour 4, Block B:  Henry Miller, Hoover, in re:  Agency-shopping.

Wednesday   7 May   2014 / Hour 4, Block C:  Eric Hanusek, Hoover, in re: Education.

Wednesday   7 May   2014 / Hour 4, Block D:  Eric Wakin, Hoover, in re: Hoover Library of War, Revolution and Peace. 

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Music

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