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JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW    
 
Hour One
Monday 21 December 2015  / Hour 1, Block A: Tom Joscelyn, Long War Journal senior editor & FDD;  Bill Roggio, Long War Journal & FDD; in re: US has almost 10,000 troops in-c0untry; US govt assures us they're not fighting.  NATO Afghan command mission: Operation Resolute Support – successor to ISAF, releases minimal info, lots of happytalk.  This is a defeat for NATO and a major success for the Taliban. California: Looks like not Da'ish in San Berdoo, but al Qaeda. Killers adopted their beliefs long before Da'ish emerged; seems that they'd studied Inspire magazine.   As the attack was going on, the couple happened to declare allegiance to al Baghdadi, bit he story began years ago.  Al Qaeda has set up a special committees to find defectors to Da'ish worldwide, and has killed many of them.  Da'ish has "captured the media windstorm," but it's al Q and Taliban who are dangerous. 
6 U.S. troops killed in motorcycle bomb attack in Afghanistan, officials say All six of the NATO service members killed Monday in a motorcycle bomb attack in Bagram, Afghanistan, were American, U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter said.
A suicide bomber on a motorbike carried out the attack on a joint patrol of Afghan and coalition forces at about 1:30 p.m. in the Bajawri area of Bagram district, said Waheed Sediqi, a spokesman for the governor of Parwan province.
Two other U.S. service members and an American contractor were also wounded, officials said.
The area is close to the U.S. base in the Bagram district of northern Parwan province. Carter expressed his condolences to the Americans' families. "As I saw firsthand during my visit to Afghanistan last Friday, our troops are working diligently alongside our Afghan partners to build a brighter future for the Afghan people," Carter said in a statement. "Their dedicated efforts will continue despite this tragic event."
The White House press secretary, Josh Earnest, in a statement condemned the "cowardly attack," and said the United States "will continue to work together to promote peace and stability in Afghanistan." The Taliban claimed responsibility for the attack. The names of those killed were not immediately released.   http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/21/asia/nato-members-killed-bagram-afghanistan/
Monday 21 December 2015  / Hour 1, Block B: Tom Joscelyn, Long War Journal senior editor & FDD;  Bill Roggio, Long War Journal & FDD; in re: The Afghan govt pretty much has lost control of southern Afghanistan: Taliban controls or contests nearly all of southern Afghan province.  (See; http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2015/12/taliban-controls-or-conte... ) This is the war to which Pres Obama committed the US, and the Gen Petraeus worked on. Losing it all; no response form NATO or the US.  Also: a major jihadist leader who's been ploughing away for 35 years, of whom no one in the West knew very much and has been sought for years, a co-founder of AQAP, suddenly emerges as the senior leader in Yemen and deeply ingratiated into Yemeni society.   / http://www.longwarjournal.org
Monday 21 December 2015  / Hour 1, Block C: Gordon Chang, Forbes.com, in re: B52s everywhere; then China in review (year end). China is in an escalation cycle of provocation. Start w B52 that in November overflew the Spratly reefs some weeks ago, as a test as a test for freedom of navigation; then on 10 December a plane did so again, possibly unintentionally.
Monday 21 December 2015  / Hour 1, Block D: Jeremy Cliffe, The Economist & Politico, in re: the Spanish election. Worrying parallels with 1930s politics in Spain – "febrile."  There are 350 sets in parliament; need over half to control; no party reaches that number, and even agglomerating those that kind of get along, it'd be tough.  Massive disagreement.  Relevant to the rest of Europe: Spain has manage to recover impressively, a kind of Wunderkind according to Brussels.  Spain is fourth-largest economy in the eurozone.  "Lurching from crisis to crisis."  Catalunya as a possible solution:  Podemos did especially well in Catalonia, but favors a referendum.
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In the build-up to Sunday’s election in Spain, news reports clung to the assertions that it would be both unpredictable and an earthquake. Predictably, the result was an earthquake. As polls had long suggested it would, the governing Popular Party (PP) came first. As much rumor had predicted — including one muttered to Angela Merkel by Mariano Rajoy in Brussels earlier this week — the hard-left Podemos came almost second in vote-share, though firmly behind the center-left Socialists (PSOE) in seats. The insurgent liberal party, Ciudadanos, came in fourth after a punishing election campaign. With the final results still trickling in, here is what we know.
1. Rajoy has defied political physics  Spain’s economic and political crisis peaked about halfway through Rajoy’s first term as prime minister and it seems the timing has been favorable to him. While the PP’s vote-share has fallen from 44.6 percent in 2011 to 28.7 percent, that it has remained in the lead is a tribute to slowly improving levels of economic confidence in a country where unemployment remains eye-wateringly high and the memories of “la crisis” remain fresh. The PP has clung on despite shocks that would have destroyed other European governments. If it stays in power it will do so as a minority government, lurching from vote to vote, but in the circumstances, even this is an achievement.
2. Congratulations, Jorge y Soraya  That achievement is as much down to the unpopular Rajoy’s two closest lieutenants as it is to him. The first of the duo is his campaign director, Jorge Moregas. He was the man behind the PP’s concentrated attack on Ciudadanos, whose free-market outlook threatened to sap the governing party’s support in the big cities. By painting Albert Rivera, its leader, as inexperienced and scaremongering about the possibility of Podemos involvement in an anti-PP coalition government, the PP appears to have won back several crucial points in the final weeks of the campaign. This was also thanks to Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría, the PP’s Number Two. The Moregas strategy was to run two presidential candidates: Rajoy would tour small-town Spain exuding old-school authority while Sáenz would concentrate on the big cities as the face of a renewed, young, liberal, modern PP willing to tackle the corruption and abuses of which it had been accused in government. She was the ultimate anti-Ciudadanos weapon and, it seems, she generally succeeded.
3. Ciudadanos could be powerful losers  With 94 percent of districts counted, the PP and Ciudadanos are — when added together — on 162 seats and thus not far off a majority (176 seats) in Spain’s lower house. Though on 40 seats and thus up 40 since the 2011 election, Rivera’s party has underperformed its poll standing of a few weeks ago. Still, it is Rajoy’s preferred — perhaps only possible — governing partner. In the days before the election Rivera committed to letting the largest party govern by abstaining in the congressional vote on the new government. Yet he would seek to exact a price. Following local elections in May, his party has propped up administrations in regional governments across Spain. It has typically demanded that figures associated with corruption go, that primaries be held, and that economic reforms proceed.
At a national level the equivalent could be the symbolically important replacement of Rajoy for Sáenz, the abolition of the Senate (Spain’s upper house, an emblem of the cozy political “casta” and a bastion of the PP) and electoral reform to make the system less favorable to “bipartidismo”, or the two-party, PP-PSOE establishment. Whether Rivera can demand this depends on the final numbers and, specifically, whether the roughly 20 MPs from regional parties (especially those from Catalonia and the Basque Country) can be bought off and thus persuaded to let a PP-led government continue. . . .  
 
Hour Two
Monday 21 December 2015  / Hour 2, Block A: David Drucker, Senior Congressional correspondent, Washington Examiner; & John Fund, NRO, in re: Taliban taking over much of Afghanistan. In Syria, Iraq, Yemen, the civil wars burn on.  US election: Mrs Clinton. What do we learn from her about the war, about the ummah, about the US and world economies?  On the Saturday TV debate, she seemed to be speaking toward the general election, and "checking her left flank."  She can hardly believe her luck: Donald Trump is leading the field.  If she can get him all riled up he'll take up more media time to the exclusion of his competitors. Democrats are delighted.  Also convinced that he's been so much in the limelight that even if he's not the nominee, whoever iswill have trouble escaping him.  Her points: GOP is evil, will take away all your rights; I'm happy with Obama but we'll tweak it a bit.  Few Americans have been so long in the spotlight and still building a new persona.  Recall that the general is about: pick one of two.   She clearly is left for primary, to the middle in the middle of the campaign, and at the end will say, "I'm the most experienced; the Republicans are callow." Clinton has been smart to move leftward so Sanders can't outflank her.  She tries to look measured, and presidential.  Can say, "You don't want to give the nuclear code to that guy."
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/hillary-clintons-christmas-present-to-... ;  http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/no-democrats-arent-secretly-scared-of-... ;  http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/poll-sanders-up-in-n.h.-clinton-in-iow...    ;http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/428805/why-would-anyone-watch-democ... ;
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/428802/bernie-sanders-apologizes-h...
 
Monday 21 December 2015  / Hour 2, Block B: John Fund, NRO, and David Drucker, Senior Congressional correspondent, Washington Examiner, in re: prepare not for what the opponent will do, but for what it wants to do.  Cruz of Texas and Rubio of Florida: the crystal ball can't see which way fortune will jump.   . . . When will Jeb Bush decide to withdraw?  -- don't count on it; but if he does drop out before Iowa, Rubio will get a lot of his supporters. Meanwhile, from the POV of the Democrats, Rubio could cut into the youth of the Obama coalition.  Rubio is fresh, likable, good at communicating – which Mrs Clinton ain't.  Cruz, however, looks like Joseph McCarthy, and Mrs Clinton can disparage him by associating him with Texas culture. 
Monday 21 December 2015  / Hour 2, Block C: Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents, in re: Kuntar & Hezbollah. Threats against Israel buy the gang leader, vs northern Israel: Samir Kuntar gives Nazi salute in photo; was killed in a Sunday rocket strike.  Had joined Hezb in 2008 after being released from an Israeli jail, for a brutal and barbaric raid from Lebanon: kidnapped a family, smashed he head of a four-year-old girl with a rifle butt, and her father, Mother and a baby hid under a bed – and the mother, trying to silence the baby, actually smothered it.  Samir Kuntar also worked the Iranian Quds Force; in US was a specially designated global terrorist.  Was drafting Druze in the Golan. Syrian govt and media have not accused Israel of the death, although Hezbollah has.   Hezbollah's casualty figures are now huge - 5,000 dead and 1,500 wounded; now, for the first time ever, Hezbollah not only isn't hiding ht casualties (sued to bury at night), but now are doing it publicly, with Hezb flag on coffins and media splash, to mobilize support in a war against ISIS.   Eerily reminiscent of Irish fight.  Must be upsetting to see that your enemy no longer is the original one (here, Israel), but is another terrorist organization.  Russians are flying in two planes a day to Hezbollah, which already ahs 100,000 missiles in its possession to be used against Israel, and increasingly with sophisticated guidance systems.   . . . The Al Menar TV station (Hezb) has been dropped by a lot of Arab networks; only Russia and Indonesia (and one other?)  carry it now 
Monday 21 December 2015  / Hour 2, Block D: Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents, in re:  Secy John Kerry and the visa waiver matter.   His exchnge with Javad Zarif, Iranian foreign miser: Teheran concerns abt Washington perhaps constraining the predators. Kerry in effect told Iran to ignore Congress: restricting automatic granting of visa to individuals who travel to Iran. Kerry said the Administration can waive Congressional restrictions, and State can expedite apps and the WH has waiver capacity.  (Every country has the right to restrict visas.)  Iran ahs just imprisoned Americans and banned 200 American products.  Iran ahs not dismantled any centrifuge, not one; have to pour concrete into the Pn reactor.  Head fo IAEA says that Iran needs to complete the needed preparatory steps to complete implementation.  Implementation later, after Iran has followed agreed steps. This is a new language that changes standards, obviates implementation.  Zarif has made statements about the need for all sanctions to be removed, first.   Threatened US power grid??
 
Hour Three
Monday 21 December 2015  / Hour 3, Block A: Pastor William Devlin, Infinity Bible Church & National President, REDEEM! in Erbil, Western Kurdistan,  re: Return after a year, when Pastor Bill was there before at Christmas 2014.   People [hundreds of thousands] are halfway through their second year, much in despair. The common phrase from Yazidi and Christian refugees:  "There is no hope in this country." They don't want to return even to their own villages that have been liberated, since there's no guarantee of safety from Da'ish or other invaders. This is the 75th genocide of Yazidis over the years; is the hundredth anniversary of Yazidi persecution by Ottomans.  Living by the side of the road under scavenged plastic cobbled into tents, or in horrible camps, or abandoned bldgs. UN says there's not enough money to feed them.  Yazidi and Christian displaced persons cannot go to Europe, UK, Canada, or US.  Very discouraging, depressing, situation.  I came here to provide a little hope, counseling, money.  Can Yazidis return to Sinjar? Everyone is to afraid to go, and their homes have been obliterated by ISIS. No desire to return.  The Assyrian Defense Force:  three separate divisions of them. Unfortunately, while the commanders want to be part of a unified force they're being led by disagreeing political leaders.  There exists an a American helping [Matthew van Dyke]. They do have a bit of support from individual Americans,  but none from the Kurdistan govt, which is the ruling party in Erbil. Ten minutes out of Dohuq, I saw an Assyrian army base, the Nineveh Protection Unit, that have put up a few modular houses, close to alQosh to defend that Christian town – about ten minutes from the front lines of ISIS and Mosul. Fearful.  Hope to have this tiny base up and running by the new year. Note that the Assyrians are also called Chaldeans, have been Christians for 2,000 years.  Peshmerga is in better shape: Kurdistan's best and last hope against ISIS. Sometimes the Erbil airport is closed because of Russian missiles.  The US and the UN have no plan.   /  twitter: @pastordev ; FB: pastor bill devlin
Monday 21 December 2015  / Hour 3, Block B:  Paul Gregory, Hoover and NRO, in re: Russia. The city of  Barnaul elected a cat as mayor because the voters were so disgusted.   . . . Russia's own calculations show significant economic and political trouble ahead if budget forecast of $50 is not met.   http://www.nationalreview.com/article/428776/russian-economy-oil-price  Russia Worries About Shock Economic Scenarios www.nationalreview.com If the price of oil doesn’t rise, the nation could see considerable unrest.
Monday 21 December 2015  / Hour 3, Block C:   Michael Ledeen, FDD, in re:  . . . Syrians couldn't get the job done so Russia had to jump in. The only Middle Eastern country that gives Pres Obama heartburn is Israel. The country the US cares the most about is Iran, and we do everything we can to help Iran.   . . . https://pjmedia.com/michaelledeen/2015/12/4/what-if-the-jihad-fails  ;  https://pjmedia.com/michaelledeen/2015/12/14/is-iran-retreating-from-syria
Monday 21 December 2015  / Hour 3, Block D: Larry Johnson, No Quarter, in re; Syrian civil war. G W Bush and Obama both wanted Assad to go; there he is.   The Syrian civil war was created by the US and Saudis to provoke a crisis vs Iran. In 2006 US started to pump in money overtly and covertly; policy expanded by Pres Obama, Hillary Clinton was chief implementer, always speaking of  "Arab Spring" + "democracy."  The war was started - we helped arm and fund – groups that attacked Syrian army units; president calculated that he could rally the American people. Problem is that Bashar is not the brutal despot his father was, and he's nonsectarian, not a religions nut.  In a reversal Pres Obama's deeds have enabled the religious madmen.  Turkey is supporting the cutthroats, which is why David Petraeus was sent to Ankara to meet with the Turkish govt to plead with them to back off supporting the radical Islamists.    CIA, MI6, and Saudi and Qatari intell officials; it spread and got out of control Obama became a pawn in a game with Saudis and Turks who feared Iran, which without Saddam Hussein suddenly was free to play big, This is so far over the head of Pres Obama that he's completely withdrawn.  He now insists that ISIS is a creature of Assad so if Assad goes so will ISIS. Helen Keller could see that this is totally wrong.   In fact, removing Assad would empower ISIS.  If Mrs Clinton wins: she's so beholden to Saudi money that she will not change policy. 
 
Hour Four
Monday 21 December 2015  / Hour 4, Block A: War of Two: Alexander Hamilton, Aaron Burr, and the Duel that Stunned the Nation, by John Sedgwick (1 of 4)
Monday 21 December 2015  / Hour 4, Block B: War of Two: Alexander Hamilton, Aaron Burr, and the Duel that Stunned the Nation, by John Sedgwick (2 of 4)
Monday 21 December 2015  / Hour 4, Block C: War of Two: Alexander Hamilton, Aaron Burr, and the Duel that Stunned the Nation, by John Sedgwick (3 of 4)
Monday 21 December 2015  / Hour 4, Block D: War of Two: Alexander Hamilton, Aaron Burr, and the Duel that Stunned the Nation, by John Sedgwick (4 of 4)
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