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JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Co-host: Thaddeus McCotter, The Great Voice of the Great Lakes
Hour One
Monday 4 January 2016 / Hour 1, Block A:  Tom Joscelyn, FDD & LongWarJournal, in re: New Year, old war-fighting.
Islamic State’s Libyan ‘province’ launches new offensive The Islamic State' Libyan "province" claims to have captured the town of Bin Jawad on the Mediterranean coast. The group also launched attacks on oil facilities in two of Libya's ports.
Afghan forces raid Taliban ‘jail’ in Helmand While the operations against the Taliban prisons in Nahr-i-Sarraj and Now Zad highlights potential capabilities of Afghanistan's Special Security Forces, they also emphasis the worsening security situation in Helmand province.
Jaish-e-Mohammed suspected in assault on Indian airbase   The assault on the airbase is thought to have been executed by Jaish-e-Mohammed, a Pakistan-based jihadist group with close ties to al Qaeda. Jihadists reportedly said they were going to avenge a Jaish-e-Mohammed operative who was executed for his role in the 2001 assault on India's Parliament.
‘Voice of the Caliphate’ radio broadcasts anti-Taliban propaganda in Afghanistan The Islamic State's so-called Khorasan "province" has set up a radio station to broadcast propaganda in Afghanistan. Officials have tried to jam its signal, but the station is also disseminating its content online via multiple platforms.
Popular Mobilization Force threatened to persecute Christians celebrating Christmas in Baghdad This month, the Popular Mobilization Force began harassing Christians in Baghdad by suggesting women wear the hijab, or veil, and instructing the minority not to celebrate Christmas.
US-led coalition targets Islamic State’s ‘external attack planners’ in airstrikes  A US military spokesman said earlier today that five members of the Islamic State's external operations arm were killed in recent airstrikes. Some of the jihadists are believed to have ties to the terrorist cell that struck Paris on Nov. 13
Monday 4 January 2016 / Hour 1, Block B: Tom Joscelyn, FDD & LongWarJournal, in re: Libya: Cyrenaica under al Qaeda, and Tripolitania, sort of  under a new regime.  Al Qaeda made gains near Sirte, and now progress into port towns, to take over oil infrastructure.  ISIS reps tied to Syria & al Baghdadi.  Names c0nfusion.  Voice of the Caliphate Radio in Afghanistan, seduce-Taliban (or solicit, or interest)  radio in "Khorasan Province" (ISIS's nomenclature) – HQ in Nangahar – and can be heard across the country; also use Spreaker app for podcasts, send out via Facebook and Twitter.   ISIS trying to break in to Taliban market share. GO for the juniors; don't bother with the senior members.  / United Jihad Council (consortium of a dozen jihadi groups, long dormant but revived by the Pakistani intell svc:  ISI) : multi-day siege; maybe abetted by the Pakistani ISI to disrupt peace talks with India. {Observers worldwide assumed the latter; only Euphues could ponder much of anything else.  –ed.]
Monday 4 January 2016 / Hour 1, Block C: Gordon Chang, Forbes.com, in re: on the first day of the Chinese stock market circuit-breaker, the market was shut down. Numbers plunged. Turns out to be a bad design. Meanwhile, the PMI showed Chinese mfrg to be 'way down; even the NYSE fell precipitously in response to both China's bad actions and the Saudi mass execution that included a major Shi'ite sheikh, engendering
Monday 4 January 2016 / Hour 1, Block D: Jim McTague, Barron's, in re: ISM mfrg index declined from 48.6 in November to _ in December.  Deterioration of global demand – esp in China.  Fifty per cent is the break point; anything lower is contraction, higher is expansion. June: 53.5%. Since then, has decline =d monthly and went negative in November, so this is the second straight month of contraction,. Eighteen categories, of this six report growth. The rest, plastics and rubber products; machinery, primary and fabricated metals, transportation eqpt, electrical, appliance, and computers – all off. Not household formation.  Most disturbing is that raw materials prices are going down – but deflation seems to be a problem (too few dollars chasing too many goods) - making Yellin precipitate in her move.   Economy is growing overall but mfrg is declining: canary in coal mine.  In 2007 o n this show I said the economy wdnlt recover till 2017 – I relied on history for this prediction.  As for today's plunge, I think the Chinese crash created a global liquidity crash, so pp couldn't sell Chinese stock to pay pension obligations; to raise cash, they had to sell US stocks, which still have value, In trading, there are now more robots than people.   Because of US fracking revolution, leading to $30 Bbl, makes US mfrg much cheaper. Of the ten categories of mfrg that expanded . . .
 
Hour Two
Monday 4 January 2016 / Hour 2, Block A:  David Drucker, Washington Examiner, and John Fund, NRO, in re:  Ted Cruz and the primaries;  on a 30-county bus tour in New Hampshire. Thought that he may win Iowa; if he does, will that influence NH?   In fact, NH  (Feb 9) is different form Iowa, dunno if his image will win there, but could surge into a strong second; and in South Carolina, might be ____. He does politics well, esp in coalescing factions, He's an athlete as a campaigner, Ad where he's in a powder-blue sweater, saying , "We need our own Obama." Can he be likable and get the female vote? If he winds up with Trump to his right and others bearing down from ht center . . .  Cruz has taken Obama's playbook and extended in to a new realm: all the analytics, better organizing in Iowa; best digital campaign.   Jeb Bush may not show up outside of single digits; he's "establishment" only in funding.   How many troops does Bush have? . . .  If I were he, I'd fear underwhelming in Iowa.  Otherwise, momentum would be in trouble.  Can say the same of Trump. 
Monday 4 January 2016 / Hour 2, Block B: David Drucker, Washington Examiner, and John Fund, NRO, in re: Marco Rubio: a vote in NH that's strongly conservative, not evangelical, and a younger vote.  He attracts the attention of the center of the Party; will be important in March.  Christie's hill to die on is NH; Cruz's is Iowa; what's Rubio's?  Maybe he'll surprise with a stronger-than expected in Iowa (2d or 3d will be OK), will have to do fairly well in NH SC: can go better for him than thought – his natl security credentials and approach are good for voters in SC; he has a lot in common with evangelicals. His team is Jim de Mint people.   Can Rubio eliminate others in NH and go mano a mano with Cruz?  But if Christie and Rubio both emerge, much harder for Rubio.  Issues: immigration will be Cruz's ram vs Rubio, who'll say that Cruz is just another Rand Paul but more hawkish feathers and can't get along in DC, is too ruthless. Rubio will paint Cruz as a shape-shifter. They'll fight over natl security – a substantive debate.  . . . NH is two Congressional districts!  Both Cruz and Rubio: straight road to the nomination. Step on the gas!
Monday 4 January 2016 / Hour 2, Block C:  Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents, in re: the burning Saudi embassy in Teheran – the work of the IRGC. Three civil wars directed by Iran: Syria, Iraq, Yemen.  Saudi foreign minister would not take John Kerry's call today.   Iran-Saudi breach has been bldg for a longtime; Iran undermining Saudi kingdom in eastern peninsula and in Sudan and Yemen. Note that UAE and Sudan joined Saudis in breaking relations with Iran.   Cut air ties between the two countries. Even in Golan, Hezbollah, owned by Iran, attacked an IDF officer in the Shabaa Farms area on Mt Hermon.  Rocket fire near USS Truman.  Iran regime will not endeavor to ease tensions with Saudis: cd enlist Russian help (who are deep into Iranian economy as well as in Syria, of course). Btw, three executions a day in Iran under Rouhani – a record; Christians, Baha'i. many .  In Tel Aviv: a shooting by an Israeli Arab who's fled; was inconsistent with a Palestinian Arab attack or a martyr attack. What changed?  His family identified him! Found IS material in his place; concern that ISIS is now operating more in Israel – might be a turning point. The search for him has expanded; he killed an Arab taxi driver as part of his escape.    Arabs attacking Christians in Bethlehem at Christmas.  Unusual.  On Internet, they have access to all the ISIS material. While 95% of Arabs have a negative view of ISIS, about 60 % support violence.  Highest direct support for ISIS is in Turkey and Nigeria, non-Arab nations.  Even those who seek pece are frustrated at being ruled by a kleptocracy; the constant displacement if Palestinian frustration on to Israel buy the PA, even when it's completel irrelevant to Israel. 
Monday 4 January 2016 / Hour 2, Block D: Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents, in re: Egypt and the Ikhwan (Muslim Brotherhood). France and the mosques.  Congress's frustration with the hidden info in ht Iran deal.  Ikhwan's leadership has taken refuge in Turkey, reorganizing: emergence of Muslim Brotherhood in a decentralized form after its govt fell. Shifts decisions to local operatives – who are susceptible to Salafists; slip into more violent actions. Some have joined ISIS in Sinai; and jihadi groups, incl al Qaeda. Esp close to Libyan border, where that's strong.  Also moving back into Egypt as ISIS . Hamas has aided ISIS in Sinai; Ansar Beith al ____  - with AKs and other weaponry, Sinai province has maybe 1,000 members, se trained in Syria and Iraq.  Centralized leadership to take it up to the next level?  It varies from region to region: connections and trends – in late 2015 we saw al Q coming back, in attack on Radisson in Mali and AQIM. Groups are filling the vacuum; so NMB has to become a network, not the performer unified force.  In France: moving aggressively to prevent another attack -  closing mosques.  There are 2,600 mosques in France; since the Sept attacks, 232 arrested and 2.5 thousands raids: found huge quantities of weapons – Kalashnikovs, ammo ISIS propaganda. Will close 160 mosques where weapons were stored and propaganda distributed, France does n not have many arrows in its quiver,  Last times France tried to raise up "moderate" imams, all its finding went to jihadis.  What does 21sr Century democracy have that radical Muslims don't want. Failure to integrate populations, poverty, etc. – but many recruits are middle class. A vacuum of values (church is slipped); young people look for a needed ideology, If the Euro govts don't take a tougher and better approach  – as long as the young think they can get away with this -  Europe will face even greater problems Congress; the Adm pulled back from sanctions over missile launches and the attack on the USS Truman, has much alarmed Congress. Look for new sanctions coming out of Congress.
Hour Three
Monday 4 January 2016 / Hour 3, Block A: Mary Kissel, Wall Street Journal Editorial Board & host of Opinion Journal on WSJ Video; in re:  Opinion Journal: China Shakes Global Markets  Silvercrest Asset Management Managing Director Patrick Chovanec on concerns that the mainland’s economy is falling into recession.  / Opinion Journal: 'Disappeared' in Hong Kong Human Rights Watch Director of Global Initiatives Minky Worden on the fate of five bookstore workers and what it says about the territory’s rule of law.  They were involve d in publishing books that irritated the Beijing regime – means that everyone in Hong Kong is at physical risk from the unelected tyrants of Beijing, known to be violent and brutish against many Chinese civilians of whom they disapprove.  Pro-democracy publisher had his house firebombed.
Monday 4 January 2016 / Hour 3, Block B:  Sebastian v Gorka, Marine Corps University and GorkaBriefing.com, in re: After Tel Aviv shooting -  with its anomalous characteristics – Israel asks PA for help in finding the shooter. He'd spent years detained for terrorist acts. Found his cellphone.  US intell operates in an antique form: Are you the Hizb desk officer? the al Q specialist?  Good for previous centuries.   It's not about individuals or organizations; its about the ideology, itself. Did he shooters share the ideology of the global jihadist movement? subscribe to a narrative where the West and Israel are kuffa? Classic nation-state fights are not relevant. In Seb's youth, the fear was of the Soviet state, which proclaimed it was defeating capitalism via socialism here everyone on the planet would share in ht fruits of production – and propelled enormous aggression.  "Ur-fascism" by Umberto Eco.  . . . Not to attack individual communists; we took down the ideology - the Nazi swastika, the "Tear down this wall, Mr Gorbachev."  Could kill Abu Bakr, we did kill ObL, and we're not safe. Because we have Muslims on our side, we can defeat this if we bring on our side the reformers, who are as much at peril as we are.   / The gunman’s approach was similar to the “behavior of recent ISIS attackers,” Daniel Nisman, the president of the Levantine Group, a geopolitical risk consultancy, said on Twitter, referring to the Islamic State. “Something is very weird here,” Mr. Nisman said in a telephone interview. “It is not a classic Palestinian terror attack,” he said, in which a gunman keeps firing until he is shot by the police. But Mr. Nisman also said that the attack did not fit the pattern of an assault by a gang because the shooting appeared indiscriminate. Security footage shared on social media appeared to show that the gunman had stopped before the attack in a grocery store to pick up and examine a bag of nuts. He appeared to have placed a bag or a backpack on a shopping cart, removed his gun, loaded it, stepped outside the store and then opened fire from the sidewalk.
http://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-seeks-pas-help-in-hunt-for-suspect-i...
Monday 4 January 2016 / Hour 3, Block C:   Larry Johnson, NoQuarter, in re:  . . . US has done 14 air strikes vs ISIS a day for years; Russians are currently doing 90!  http://www.noquarterusa.net/blog/78789/tough-talk-versus-real-action-why-russia-is-winning/
Monday 4 January 2016 / Hour 3, Block D: Reed Watson, PERC Montana, in re: http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/03/us/oregon-wildlife-refuge-protest/
Hour Four
Monday 4 January 2016 / Hour 4, Block A:  Henry Nau, George Washington University; author, most recently, of Conservative Internationalism: armed diplomacy under Jefferson, Polk, Truman, and Reagan http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10096.html (1 of 2)
Monday 4 January 2016 / Hour 4, Block B: Henry Nau, George Washington University; author, most recently, of Conservative Internationalism: armed diplomacy under Jefferson, Polk, Truman, and Reagan http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10096.html (2 of 2)
Monday 4 January 2016 / Hour 4, Block C: Simon Constable, author, in re: markets. US News: Lift Your Returns with a Barbell Strategy http://money.usnews.com/money/personal-finance/mutual-funds/articles/2015/12/08/lift-your-returns-with-a-barbell-strategy
TheStreet: Why China's Yuan Can't Take Down the Almighty Dollar http://www.thestreet.com/story/13407355/1/why-chinas-yuan-cant-take-down-the-almighty-dollar.html
TheStreet: Why Smart Machines and Artificial Intelligence Won't Destroy Us http://www.thestreet.com/story/13404151/1/why-artificial-intelligence-and-smart-machines-won-t-destroy-us.html
OZY: What More Cowbell Means for Europe's Economy http://www.ozy.com/pov/what-more-cowbell-means-for-europes-economy/66617
Monday 4 January 2016 / Hour 4, Block D:   Rich Cifelli, in re: Continental drift.
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