The John Batchelor Show

Thursday 14 January 2016

Air Date: 
January 14, 2016

Photo, left: Monumen nasional jakarta
 
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Co-hosts: Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents. Larry Kudlow, CNBC senior advisor; Cumulus Media Networks.  Mary Kissel, Wall Street Journal Editorial Board & host of Opinion Journal on WSJ Video. 
 
Hour One
Thursday  14 January 2016 / Hour 1, Block A: Steven L Herman, Southeast Asia Bureau Chief, Voice of America; in re:  Jakarta bombings. Began at 10AM local time on Thursday., went on for hours.  Govt claimed it was ISIS.  Had  been expecting a Christmas-New Year's attack and were prepared, but this caught everyone by surprise.  How many attackers? Not yet clear.  Seems to have been a small bomb in the Starbucks smoking area (filled with foreigners and dips) – all of whom fled into a larger blast. Across the street, a third blast at a small police station; cops got into an extended gunfight.   Competition of who's to be the SE Asia ISIS leader. Worryy that sub-cells are loyal to different intended leaders, will have  a "friendly competition." Hundreds of Indonesians have gone to Syria for training, an there may be a thousand-plus activists in Indonesia.  . . .  Five dead, many wounded. Jakarta bombs, gunfire claimed by ISIS - CNN.com   Jakarta, Indonesia--Attackers struck midday Thursday at a busy commercial hub in ...  ;  Jakarta attacks: Islamic State says it was responsible - BBC News
Thursday  14 January 2016 / Hour 1, Block B: Nick R Grace,  webmaster, ClandestineRadio.com, in re: Indonesians in diaspora respond to the sudden ISIS threat at home.  Indonesian tweittersphere is trading pix of attackers, esp a gunman in the last, 15-min firefight. Clothing, dark skin, all from the kampung, the countryside.  Some people joke about the clothing of the police officers – one with a $700 Coach tag, another wearing Gucci shoes, whereas the gunmen were wearing poor clothes. Robust police force. Bombmaker? Since Sept 2014 the Indonesian wing in ISISI in Syria has been growing, in three wings, with this Bahram Daling(?) headed by the fellow who ran this attack.  Can see them in Dabiq (the ISIS magazine) and in videos. Have been translating Arabic material into Bahasa Indonesia.  A competition 'twixt at least two men to be the capo di capi of ISIS in Indonesia.  This guy has been active; Reuters interviewed him in November; he's been blogging since 2103. [Oh terrific. Sean Penn and Reuters. –ed.] 
Chronology:
10.45 AM - Suicide bomb inside Starbucks in Jakarta’s financial district. No deaths. 2 gunmen awaited outside and shot at people escaping. 1 Canadian killed.
10.50 AM - A few blocks away, two suicide bombers blew themselves up at a police post in the middle of the street. 1 Indonesian killed.
11.00 AM - In the midst of chaos, the Starbucks shooters walk around in the street shooting at civilians. 15-minute firefight. Appears they blew themselves up by mistake while hiding behind cars parked in a parking lot. 19 wounded.
03.00 PM - Life returned to normal.
Police discovered 6 unexploded bombs - 5 homemade grenades and 1 larger homemade bomb.
Bombs tied to local bombmaker known as Abu Muzab, who was arrested along with 3 Uighurs in Jakarta who were training to become suicide bombers. In December, authorities recently rolled up a terror cell.
- - - 
Bahrun Naim behind the attack. 32 year old Javanese militant who was previously imprisoned for possession of illegal ammunition. Been on counter terror radar since 2010. Started blogging about militancy in 2013 and moved to Syria in late 2014.
Praised Paris attacks and called for urban warfare on his blog.
Heads up Malay-speaking ISIS cell in Syria called “Katibah Nusantara” and has expressed ambition to become ISIS leader in “Central Asia,” which includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand.  Katibah Nusantara has growing influence within ISIS after defeating Kurdish forces in April 2015.
Authorities now believe that he rushed yesterday’s operation to counter a rival leader in the southern Philippines.
Thursday  14 January 2016 / Hour 1, Block C: Mary Anastasia O'Grady, WSJ, in re: North Korea's Cuban Friends
Thursday  14 January 2016 / Hour 1, Block D: Michael Ledeen, FDD, in re: http://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelledeen/2016/01/13/the-iranians-arrest-our-sailors-13-hours-gives-you-dots-to-connect/#2715e4857a0b4d81cdb25401
 
Hour Two
Thursday  14 January 2016 / Hour 2, Block A: Elliott Abrams, senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations; in re:  That dreadful photo of ten US Navy sailors with their hands over their heads, in the pose that's the last posture before one is shot or beheaded by ISISI.  Teheran released this picture to show the world. esp the Middle East, that "we can humiliate the US and do much worse to you."  An Obama legacy, Means the an alliance with the US is worth nothing now. Iran has imprisoned more Americans since the "Iran nuclear deal," and has correctly concluded that here's no cost to egregiously bad behavior.  . . .  In the old days, one would have said, that the Saudis have the Americans on their side, but today the msg to the Saudis, the Emiratis, al the Gulf: Iran has taken control of the Gulf; get used to it.  Thomas Pickering wrote to Clinton to propose using NGOs to undermine the Israeli government; and Martin Indyk's remark that Netanyahu had impugned Rabin – which was flat-out untrue.  The remark attributed to Netanyahu would have been politically savvy, but the facts are all wrong, This Administration doesn't grasp the meaning of the world "ally."  Expect more violence between Iran and Sunni states, esp proxy fights.  There exists the danger that , when the US reacts the way it did with the American boats, the Iranians may judge that they can get away with anything – they may try it. We're in real peril in the next 12 months' China. Russian, Iran, others, can miscalculate what the US – even this Administration – will accept.    http://www.wsj.com/articles/iran-detains-two-u-s-navy-boats-1452634883 ;        http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4751837,00.html
Thursday  14 January 2016 / Hour 2, Block B: James “Jimmy” O’Neill, Chief of Department for the NYPD (highest-ranking uniformed positioning the New York Police Department); in re: Claims by ISI out of Raqqah that the Jarkarta attack was to destabilize the city. Were this to occur in New York, are we ready? We have 36,000 excellent men and women in the NYPD and we're ready.  ,John Miller as chief of intell and counterterrorism.  Done a lot over two years: two groups – strategic response (all-borough task forces into on combined mission – 6-00 officers in cars with long guns) – and under  John Miller, JTTF. Few new Yorkers know how close to the cutting edge is the NYPD, which incidentally has a presence in about a dozen countries. A brilliant program started by Ray Kelly; a tremendous help to us. In local issues, what do you expect institutions – schools, churches, synagogues, etc – to do?  Mobile strategic response; we review threat stream constantly. Precincts: crime-prevention survey. House of worship orders around the city.  We're in close contact with MTA and other police; with the FBI –Diego Garcia is an excellent collaborator.  One of our officers, Kenny Healey, was attacked in 2013; we coordinate, we scrub social media.   http://www.wsj.com/articles/muslims-and-the-police-1452297874 ; http://www.wsj.com/articles/fbi-probes-shooting-of-philadelphia-police-o... ; http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/jan/12/dhs-doles-out-17-million...
Thursday  14 January 2016 / Hour 2, Block C: Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents; in re: Tripartite relationship: Cyprus, Greece, Israel.   A 45-min flight from TLV to Larnaca, and then two hours to Athens. The distances reflect the commonality of interests - military, agricultural., more; could bring in Egypt, Morocco, Lebanon, Spain.  I've met the defense ministers in all three countries; learned a lot about needs and potential. Extant: Joint exercises, intell sharing, exchange of technology. Cyprus is at war: one side is a prosperous Greek side; the other is a bleak, stark, almost East German-like Turkish sector.  We can be amiable with both Greece and Turkey, New Turkish mil base in Qatar; new Iranian outreach, etc Disturbing.  Both France and UK have bases in Bahrain or  Iran.   Iran Terror Financing Act passed, 190 to 6.   In US Supreme Court, a $2 bil suit against Iran. Missile launches; rockets fired at USS Truman.  There are 5,000 Jews in Greece; were in Thessalonika/Salonika?  Many were murdered by the Nazis.  Ports actually closed on the Sabbath because so many stevedores were Jewish.  We've been received with exceptional warmth.  The kipa (traditional Jewish skullcap) – it was suggested that even rabbis not wear them in France because of the astounding anti-Jewish murders.  Friday is kipa day when everyone will a kipa. Chief Rabbi of France rejected fear of wearing kipa; if you do that, then the next step will be inability to wear a cross.  Greece has been a transit point for refugees; security concerns about Da'ish?  Yes, everyone is concerned.   From Libya to Greece: less than 300 miles. 
Thursday  14 January 2016 / Hour 2, Block D: Tony Badran is a Research Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD); in re:   Farsi Island, American sailors n their knees, hands on heads.  Released them, then Mohsen _____ did a TV interview: "This is our first big message to Saudi Arabia – Iran can easily detain Americans and release them from a position of power, Iranians are the guys who call the shots."  . .  A week earlier when the Iranians torched the Saudi embassy, not only did the US not respond wisely but actually attacked the Saudis.   . . .  This ded was the culmination f a series of actions and provocations: test-firing of ballistic missiles, rockets to the US ship, torching of he Saudi embassy – where the White House took Iran's side. This was written in to the JCPOA – the actual words showed that Pres Obama would in no way create unfavorable sentiments between his WH and Teheran. Note IRCG troops are deployed in Iraq, Yemen, Syria, Lebanon.  Saudis see that they not only do not have US support but that the Saudis have to fight the US in important matters.  . . .  Execution of Sheikh Nimr.  . . . The peril will increase this year, esp as Iran gets a lot more money to do it.  Beginning of an escalation cycle against the US. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/tony-badran/obama-mideast-alliances_b_8956658.html
 
Hour Three
Thursday  14 January 2016 / Hour 3, Block A:  Larry Kudlow, CNBC senior advisor and Cumulus Radio Network; in re: The burden of taxes, the story of the unrecovered American recovery.  Tonight's debate: seen is better than nine or eleven. On corp tax reform: they all agree to reduce. Cruz has a VAT that he calls a business tax; Rubio destroyed him on it, after Cruz hammer and tongs.    VAT is hidden: taxes both wages and corporate revenues. Paid in nontransparent ways, workers get lower wages. Rubio had many unhappy comments about taxes;  Sens Rubio and Lee put out a tax plan that gave out privileges according to number of children.  Also, personal tax: $2 trillion in child tax credits, and raise other credits (which happen to have a lot of problems with fraud and abuse). Maria Bartiromo and Neal Cavuto hosts in TV debate. The answer to low growth is pro-growth policies.
Thursday  14 January 2016 / Hour 3, Block B: Larry Kudlow, CNBC senior advisor and Cumulus Radio Network; Mary Kissel, Wall Street Journal Editorial Board & host of Opinion Journal on WSJ Video; in re:  . . . Cruz invoked Arthur Laffer, a good fried of mine with whom I disagree . . .  Trump crushed Cruz on "New York values" – invoked 9/11, and spoke of William Buckley as a New York conservative.  . . .  The most consistent rhetorical speaker tonight was Rubio.  Trump was good on New York culture but we disagree on tariffs: "If you negotiate with China on X, Y, Z, matters and they won't quit meddling with their currency, I might put a 45% tariff on them.  "A misdirected gunshot as Chian falls over a cliff."
Thursday  14 January 2016 / Hour 3, Block C: Larry Kudlow; Steve Moore, Heritage; Bill Whalan, Hoover, in re:  tonight's GOP debate in South Carolina – the even on stage.  Cruz: effective shot down NYT story and others, but tangle with Trump is a poisonous thing, like going into a black hole by marrying a Kardashian . . .  Rubio fairly unscathed.   LK: Value question – Trump slaughtered Cruz.  I don't think the country hates New Yorkers, but Trump spoke well on how they fought back after 9/11.  Cruz slaughtered Trump on the birth issue, but Trump throws bombs while Cruz in a  lawyerly crouch; the Goldman loan.   Rubio-Cruz match-up.  Fighting for  the Republicans who think that Trump represent oblivion to the Party.    Fox short-changed us with inadequate time on tax reform.  The Cruz-Rubio interchange on tax plans: Cruz did better. Wish Ben Carson had been a little more assertive; his good tax plan didn't get explained. 
Thursday  14 January 2016 / Hour 3, Block D: Larry Kudlow; John Fund, National Review Online; Bill Whalen, Hoover, in re: Trump, Rusio and Cruz tangling, Christie trying to butt in.   Frank Luntz on a focus group thought Cruz got the better of the debate.  Do pollsters know what they're doing? Recall that in Cali , Schwartzenegger underpolled till he won. Same in London: they lie to the pollsters and tell the truth when voting,  LK: I though Cruz was  a loser tonight, and Rubio and Trump were winners.  Bartiromo quoted Lindsay Graham's defense policies: US air strikes ineffective for a year and we need to bring up the number of our ground forces.  None of the candidates would speak of that.  Why won't they declare war on ISIS?  Trump was effective in slamming Cruz for his "New York values" epithet.  The photo of the ten sailors on their knees with their hands on their heads – did anyone mention it? Ted Cruz did: he was very effective. This photo is in the hands of our enemies, is intimidating our allies, is a defeat for the United States. 
 
Hour Four
Thursday  14 January 2016 / Hour 4, Block A: Dan Henninger, WSJ WONDER LAND, in re: Obama’s Legacy: Trump and Bernie
Thursday  14 January 2016 / Hour 4, Block B: Lou Ann Hammond, Driving the Nation, in re: 2025AD.com
Thursday  14 January 2016 / Hour 4, Block C: Robert Zimmerman, Behind the Black, in re:  SpaceX, Orbital ATK, and Sierra Nevada awarded contracts to ISS   The competition heats up: NASA has decided to award contracts to all three competitors, Orbital ATK, SpaceX, and Sierra Nevada, in the second round of cargo contracts to ISS. Or as Yogi Berra once said, “When you come to a fork, take it.”  The main winners appear to be Orbital and SpaceX, with Sierra Nevada coming in later. Details at this moment remain vague, so stay tuned.
Bush, Cruz, Carson, and Sanders on space policy  This article takes a look at the positions on space policy of four candidates for President. Not surprisingly, there is not much substance to what these candidates have said. They mostly mouth positive platitudes about space, and often indicate by those platitudes a general lack of knowledge about the subject.
What is more important to consider is their overall political philosophies combined with legislative actions they have actually done. Cruz, for example, is clearly in favor of reducing the cost and size of government. He also has made it clear by his actions in the Senate that he considers space an important national priority. These facts tell me that, should he become president, he will likely move to end SLS while shifting resources to private space, since it costs a lot less and the government (and nation) will get more for its money. 
Sanders meanwhile has consistently voted for a smaller space program in all his years in the Senate. As a socialist and a liberal who sides with the Democrats routinely, he, like them, has generally opposed spending any money on NASA or space, generally arguing that the money would be better spend solving problems on Earth. While he might mouth support for NASA now, I'd expect him to try to kill it once in office.
Thursday  14 January 2016 / Hour 4, Block D: Robert Zimmerman, Behind the Black, in re: That space junk was from Lunar Prospector  A research team at JPL has concluded that the unidentified piece of space junk that had been in lunar space but crashed to Earth in November was likely the engine module used by the 1998 Lunar Prospector mission.  The junk’s identity is by no means certain, but the “leading candidate” is the translunar injection module of Lunar Prospector, says Paul Chodas, an asteroid tracker at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California. The module nudged the probe out of Earth orbit and then detached from the main spacecraft, which orbited the Moon for 19 months before it was deliberately slammed into the lunar south pole in July 1999.
Speculation about the source of the debris, known as WT1190F, ran rampant even before it plummeted through the atmosphere on 13 November. The only artificial object to make an uncontrolled re-entry at a precisely predicted place and moment, it presented a unique chance to witness such an event in real time. Researchers took advantage of the opportunity, monitoring the debris from a chartered jet as well as from ground-based observatories.
 
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