Photo, left: Egyptian soldiers carrying flags—navy, ground forces, air force and air defense.
 Egyptian President Sisi Surrounded By Sinai Militant Attacks, Fighting in Libya and Rise of ISIS http://www.ibtimes.com/egyptian-president-sisi-surrounded-sinai-militant-attacks-fighting-libya-rise-isis-1723631   Egypt has had a tumultuous 48 hours: An explosion in a Cairo metro station injured 16 people; terror attacks in Sinai killed five; a bomb exploded at the Egyptian Embassy in Libya’s capital Tripoli, and 13 military servicemen are missing or wounded after militants attacked a navy ship. Egypt is in a “full-fledged war” against Islamist groups, military expert Ashraf Sweilam told Egyptian daily Al-Ahram Online.
"External forces" are waging that war “meant to break up Egypt and the Egyptians. ... Egypt is fighting a war of existence,” President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi said in a live TV address last month. That's a narrative he's been sticking to since he was elected last year, legitimizing his hold on power after a coup that ousted elected president Mohammad Morsi, who was backed by the Muslim Brotherhood.  Egypt has seen internal strife between the government and Muslim militants before, but despite the Brotherhood’s regional alliances, conflicts have largely remained within Egypt's borders. But now, over a year into Sisi's presidency and mere months before the country is set to hold parliamentary elections, Egypt is seeing a surge in unrest -- and that is playing into Sisi's narrative.  
The president maintains that the country's hurting economy, a key factor that led to the 2011 revolution, can recover only if there is political stability -- and that he is the one to deliver that stability, with a crackdown on the Islamist opposition. “While having attacks all around the country is certainly not good for the country as a whole, it does play to the narrative that there is a major terrorist threat,” said Zack Gold, a visiting fellow is at the Institute for National Security Studies. “In some ways it gives the government leeway to continue to act as it sees fit to counter terrorists.”
Sisi has used the terrorism narrative to enforce brutal crackdowns on the Muslim Brotherhood opposition, Gold said. The Egyptian government actually declared the group a terrorist organization earlier this year -- but Egypt is still facing an escalation of extremist activity. The Libyan civil war to the west and the allure of the Islamic State group have fueled Egypt’s own militant groups and made the country susceptible to spillover from the region's other conflicts. Egypt’s biggest homegrown threat comes from the Sinai, home of jihadist group Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis. The militant group has been in nearly constant conflict with the military since Morsi’s removal in 2013, and claimed responsibility for one of Egypt’s deadliest days in the last year, when a double attack killed 31 people last month.  . . . 
 
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Co-hosts: Capt Jerry Hendrix, Center for a New American Security. Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents.
 
Hour One
Thursday  25 February 2016 / Hour 1, Block A: Jerry Hendrix, in re:
Thursday  25 February 2016 / Hour 1, Block B: Dr. Jackie Newmyer Deal , president, Long Term Strategy Group; in re:  Uyghurs and Himalayas have suddenly become important.  The Chinese Foreign Minister and Defense Minister have spoken in the last few days:  The Nine-Dot Line is logical because  “It’s Chinese sovereign territory and we’re just reclaiming what’s ours”  News to Philippines, Vietnam, all the other nations around he South China Sea.  The US is caught short, having failed to notice hat China is much more aggressive.  About eight years ago we began to see China push against Japan, and on the Nine-Dash line, the Paracels, et al.   Adm Harry Harris: “The Great Wall of Sand”; in political discussion, this is a helpful description. Chinese history textbooks.  Historically, Chinese dynasties have been expansionist for centuries and millennia.  Relations with neighbors were not peaceful.  Recently China has established more overseas dependencies: investment, power plays.  Maritime supply lines: what China calls “the Near Seas.”  Stalin: “Push the bayonet in – if you hit mush, push through; if you hit steel, back off.” Current Chinese mil writing: US has the ability to fight back China but not the will, so this is an excellent time for China to be aggressive.  Anti-Access Air-Denial technologies. If the US gave China ramp on which to back down, would it? No – they're winning; no reason for China to back down.  When Adm Harry Harris says that  . . .
Thursday  25 February 2016 / Hour 1, Block C: Bryan Clark, Navy Commander (ret.), Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments Senior Fellow; in re:  Adm Harry Harris, three possible responses: an attack boat; an Arleigh Burke-class carrier; an aircraft group.  His demands for subs are about 60% met; wants another in now, Navy is working on basing a fourth one in Guam. Adm Harris wants yet one more – would require addtl infrastructure and in FY17  budget, Navy is working on this.    We have 4 SSGNs now; Navy maintains a tank tender in Diego Garcia.   . . . SSGN at sea for 16 mos.  Most navies aren't good at anti-sub warfare – hard to find, and then hard to see where it's going and home in on here it is.  Using sound for identifying, Chinese also not progressing too fast in this.  Makes me think they'll take another approach in antisub warfare:  will maybe get rough ides of where subs are, then launch missiles to discourage them from staying around.   . . . Bunker-buster from a high-enough altitude . . .
Thursday  25 February 2016 / Hour 1, Block D: Bryan Clark, Navy Commander (ret.), Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments Senior Fellow; in re:  JB: I’ll give you a blank check to build and buy whatever you want to counter Chinese aggression.  Start with submarines – we have 48, going down to 40 in a few y ears.   Harry Harris needs a dozen deployed, meaning 50 all together (at sea or in repair); and need ten ballistic missile subs, to carry missiles or other payloads, and deploy them to the Pacific – giving me 10 attack subs in Pacific on any given day. . . .
 
Hour Two
Thursday  25 February 2016 / Hour 2, Block A:  David Andrew Weinberg, FDD Senior Fellow, in re: Only the State Secretary’s daydreams have a working ceasefire. Putting a lot into Syria. Saudis and Emiratis putting a lot of assets in Yemen, now pivoting back to Syria – their proxies are getting clobbered by the Russians and Syrians.  Bringing in fighters from South America, Sudan, et al.; Emiratis have a more trained military (were training with US for years), but Qataris and Saudis are all ineffective, although Saudis sent more planes to bomb ISIS. Recent Saudi exercises: Northern Thunder – Janes says about fewer than 100K men.    Saudi new defense policy: overpromise and underdeliver – headed by the king’s son ambitious and overly impulsive.  The PKK is not idle, strikes in Turkish cities.    The Turkish role: pivotal to what the Saudis are trying to do right now. When Abdullah was on the throne he pursued a drive vs Iran and the Ikhwan; under Salman, a 180° on the Ikhwan and focussed on combatting Iran.  Middle Easterners expect a new US president more willing to strike back . . .  Sukhoi sales? Not that big a threat to the Gulf States . .  I meant, the US failure to block the sale sends a message to Middle Eastern stages – and the pivotal moment was the red-line issue. I happen to follow individuals dcsignated on the terrorist financing list; one of them: his blog carries a mocking cartoon of Americans taking a selfie with bad guys. .
http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/david-weinberg-gulf-states-pledge-forces-for-syria-but-challenges-remain/ ; http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/david-weinberg-a-nervous-saudi-arabia-just-launched-a-massive-military-excercise/ ; http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/david-weinberg-where-obama-fails-on-iran-sanctions-the-gulf-states-can-step-in/ ; http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Iran/Veteran-nuclear-expert-Iran-deal-could-make-things-worse-445771
Thursday  25 February 2016 / Hour 2, Block B:  Mohsen Sazegara is an Iranian journalist and pro-democracy political activist; in re;  Iranian constitution: Guardians (6 jurists & 6 attys, apptd by the Supreme Leader) must ratify all candidates. Under the boot of the Leader; have hand-picked all 153 candidates, of whom only three are sort of moderate; all the others for Assembly if Experts are from hard-line factions and under Revolutionary Guard. Of 89 seats, for 9 seats there’s only candidate.  The only reversed/disqualified thousands of persons who wanted to run. Parliament has 300 seats. Council of Guardians must ratify and candidate.   In the last 24 hours, 1,500 more candidates dropped out.  In 180 seats, in small cities. The IRGC has already refused all candidates except those from within the IRGC.  This is a military coup extending from 2009.  But there are difficulties between Basij (militia) and the Revolutionary Guard.  Tomorrow’s vote doesn’t affect  the Parliament or the Assembly of Experts. If millions vote for semi-reformers, could be a show to the leaders – but won’t change anyanything at all. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/26/world/middleeast/iran-elections-q-and-...
Thursday  25 February 2016 / Hour 2, Block C:  Lee Smith is a Senior Fellow at Hudson Institute; in re: Is Pres Obama’s scepticism well-founded? Oops – there is a referee – the party that wrote the rule book: Russia; so yes, scepticism. Secy Kerry has been acting as the Russians’s lawyer for moths; shove the deal down throat.   Demand that the oppo put down its arms even though Russia and Assad will keep bombing them, while Russia is the only party on the ground to monitor.   Obama and Kerry have served as the Russians’s lawyers – it’s disgraceful.  Hezbollah:  “deconfliction mechanism”: to be sure that Israeli and Russian planes don't hit each other.  As the Russians bomb, Hezbollah is taking and holding ground.   . . .  Ultimately, the goals of Russia and Hezb will diverge.  The major problem is the Sunni order of the Middle East – Saudis. Turkey, Jordan, Egypt – which is American-backed. Russia has only one option: to play along with Iran. This is a serious axis right now – guaranteed Russian freedom of action against all anti-Assad units, and behind the Russians are the Iranians. Are we on an escalation cycle with or without an exit ramp?  Going to get worse –Turks have Russians and PKK to solve; the WH is shoving this down their throat. Turn the dial down: US needs to take an active position that cannot serve as Russia’s lawyer, Iran’s facilitator or Hezbollah’s facilitator. Won't happen under this White House.  Genocide against Sunni Arabs; a major, multi-actor war including even Israel; and a major refugee crisis – a reason why Putin is hitting schools and hospitals: to make the refugee crisis worse for Turkey.  Baghdad? One of Iran’s goals – how do you replicate the Iranian revolution? Train a parallel structure – Nasrallah is more important than the Lebanese parliament. Happening also in Iraq, where the parallel structure is running Iraq.  The so-called truce gives the Russians a stronger position, f/b/o Iran. It's Russian air power that’s carrying the day.
Thursday  25 February 2016 / Hour 2, Block D:  Fabrice Balanche,  Washington Institute; in re: The western corridor of northern Syria: Aleppo and Idlib provinces.  Two million refugees in Aleppo Province, whom Russians mean to drive out of Syria, to the Turkish border (where they’ll die). Against Turkey and against Europe.  Also increases the percentages of Alawites, benefits Assad.  Used to be 30% of population, then in 2010 at beginning of uprising the minorities were only 20%.  Needed to reduce the Sunnis.  East of Aleppo is ISIS; and near by is al Nusrah – a safe zone creates a safe haven for two jihadist groups.   European leaders see all this – do they have an answer ? Hollande, Merkel, Cameron?  It's too late!  And Europe is weak, wants no confrontation with Russia, expect a deal: you keep }Assad in power and stop the refugees, lt them return to Syria. We’re afraid of a war with Russia over this. Saudis cut funding to Lebanese army:  see that Hezb is ever more powerful; the Lebanese army is close with (commingled with) Hezb.
Fabrice Balanche, an associate e professor and research director at the University of Lyon 2, is a visiting Fellow at the Washington Institute. Balanche, who also directs the Research Group on the Mediterranean and the Middle East (GREMMO), has spent ten years in Lebanon and Syria, his main areas of study, since first engaging in fieldwork in the region in 1990. Today, he is frequently called upon as an expert consultant on Middle East development issues and the Syrian crisis. His publications include Geopolitics of the Middle  East (2014, in French), Atlas of the Arab Near East (2012, in French and Arabic), and the book version of his thesis, The Alawite Region and Syrian Power (2006, in French). Balanche holds a doctorate in geography from the University of Tours (2000).
http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/two-potential-safe-zones-in-northern-syria ; http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/ceasefire-and-elections-in-syria-putin-still-a-step-ahead ; http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/hezbollah-fatalities-in-the-syrian-war ; http://dailycaller.com/2016/02/20/how-the-iran-russia-syria-alliance-is-the-middle-easts-number-one-problem/
 
Hour Three
Thursday  25 February 2016 / Hour 3, Block A:  Malcolm Hoenlein, in re:  Egypt: tourist industry is obliterated; 1300 hotels for sale along the coast. Erdogan is driven by the growing Mediterranean alliance – Cyprus, Egypt, Israel, Greece, and Med Euro countries – all joining.  The success of the Arab Spring so far is the comity between Egypt and Israel. However, Libya is a Somalia – Tripolitania; Sirte – ISIS has a marine division of martyr-bomber trainees to blow up Mediterranean shipping, Look for Med piracy – ISIS is 300 mi from Crete.    US bombed Subratha, then immediately ISIS took over the Security HQ, beheaded twelve people then were driven out.   Egypt has a 1,700 km border with Libya, urgently needs help.  Egypt is flanked by gangsters – Libya, Sinai.  Egypt holds itself together with  a brittle economy and the US helps zero.
Thursday  25 February 2016 / Hour 3, Block B:   Brig.-Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser, Jerusalem Center; in re: Tunnels out of Gaza to Israel: should figure out how to prevent tunnels without bringing in the IDF. Note heavy rains in the last few days that collapsed maybe a dozen tunnels.  YK spoke to Conference n the BDS movement: it's a terrorist movement with anti-Jewishness at its core.  Goal is to prevent the Jews from having a state of their own.  Justified by the same old arguments: Jews are terrible creatures, etc.  A new face of the same old stuff, since the old versions of anti-Jewishness are no longer very popular.  Stabbings.  BDS has succeeded in partially legitimizing the debate against Judaism.  However, more people are becoming aware of he terroristic nature of BDS, so the Brits and cities and parliaments around he world are condemning and opposing BDS.   Boycott, divestment and sanctions against anything Israeli.
Brig.-Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser is Director of the Project on Regional Middle East Developments at the Jerusalem Center. He was formerly Director General of the Israel Ministry of Strategic Affairs and head of the Research and Analysis and Production Division of IDF Military Intelligence.
Thursday  25 February 2016 / Hour 3, Block C: Bill Whalen, Hoover Institution, and   David Drucker, Senior Congressional correspondent, Washington Examiner; in re:  tonight’s GOP debate where Rubio and Cruz attacked trump, but probably too late in the game.  Rubio said, “You’re repeating yourself” – but that doesn't shake loose the 1/3 of the Republican electorate who support him.  Went after Trump on personal matters, too: Trump University, taxes, hiring illegal aliens, et al; also on health care and putative policies.  Rubio looked like the fighter who’d take on Trump and Hillary; the minute he opened his mouth he went after Trump – mocked him. Laughed at him. Trump didn't handle the attacks too well, go flustered.  The Trump message is like the Sanders message: “You're being ripped off.”  . . . “This is a con man.”  No matter what Trump is attacked on, he never shows an iota of shame.  When you look on TV as though nothing bothers you - “Maybe I lied but you're a jerk” – body language can get through.  Trump is like a jungle cat who sprays his turf.  Trump said, “I’m being audited by the IRS” – so which will the IRS move more slowly on, Trump or Hillary Clinton? . . . Is he being audited for ten years?? How about previous years? – he kept dancing around the answer but nobody will focus on it.  The numbers would be radically different if there were two contenders, not five.  Clinton benefits from this.
Thursday  25 February 2016 / Hour 3, Block D: Thaddeus McCotter, WJR, the Great Voice of the Great Lakes; and John Fund, NRO, in re: Rubio and Cruz managed to realize that attacking each other redounds to the benefit of Trump, so they attacked Trump.  Rubio: Do you have anything else un your health care plan? (Silence) & “You’ve just said the same stock answer five times” (made Trump look foolish and small). Thaddeus: The battle and the war.  True, Trump’s lack of policy, but Trump’s goal is to be the antiestablishment candidate – the atmospheric on which his entire campaign is based.  How many people among the 70% antiestablishment would leave Trump and go to – whom? Need to see the cross-tabs.  Republican-on-Republican violence.  JF: At some point there’ll be Democratic chaos as bad as or worse than this.  If Cruz wins Texas, he buys time, Kasich ahs to win Ohio and Rubio, Florida, to stay in. 
 
Hour Four
Thursday  25 February 2016 / Hour 4, Block A: Richard Epstein, Chicago Law and NYU Law and Hoover; in re:  As Apple continues to fight back on the FBI's request, calling it "unconstitutional" in court, support from the tech world is starting to pour in. Soon after Microsoft announced it's decision to back Apple's legal battle with its own amicus brief, Facebook and Google have also stepped in to offer support in court.  (1 of 2) http://www.hoover.org/research/apples-iphone-blunder
Thursday  25 February 2016 / Hour 4, Block B: Richard Epstein, Chicago Law and NYU Law and Hoover; in re:  As Apple continues to fight back on the FBI's request, calling it "unconstitutional" in court, support from the tech world is starting to pour in. Soon after Microsoft announced it's decision to back Apple's legal battle with its own amicus brief, Facebook and Google have also stepped in to offer support in court.  (2 of 2) http://www.hoover.org/research/apples-iphone-blunder
Thursday  25 February 2016 / Hour 4, Block C:  Robert Zimmerman, behindtheblack, in re: Freefall achieved on LISA Pathfinder On Monday, the two cubes housed in the core of ESA's LISA Pathfinder were left to move ...; Freefall achieved on LISA Pathfinder - News stories  ; Test Marks Milestone for Deep-Space Gravitational Wave Observatory
Thursday  25 February 2016 / Hour 4, Block D:   Robert Zimmerman, behindtheblack, in re:  The cratered surface of Ceres