The John Batchelor Show

Thursday 3 July 2014

Air Date: 
July 03, 2014

Graphic, above: A world map released by the "Islamic State" on Twitter shows the jihadist organization's 5-year plan to establish the Caliphate across the entire Middle East including Israel, North Africa, Spain, Greece, Pakistan, Georgia, China and parts of Russia.

"The legality of all emirates, groups, states and organizations becomes null by the expansion of the caliph's authority and the arrival of its troops to their areas," Islamic State spokesman Abu Mohammad al-Adnani said in an audio release. "Listen to your caliph and obey him. Support your state, which grows every day."

"The time has come for the Ummah [nation] of Mohammed (peace be upon him) to wake up from its sleep, remove the garments of dishonor, and shake off the dust of humiliation and disgrace," Adnani said. "For the era of lamenting and moaning has gone, and the dawn of honor has emerged anew. The sun of jihad has risen. The glad tidings of good are shining. Triumph looms on the horizon. The signs of victory have appeared," he continued.  "The Shura (council) of the Islamic State met and discussed this issue . . . [more]

Also see map:  Islamic State consolidates gains in eastern Syria  Google forbids us to copy its map. Not exactly Wikipedia.

JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW

Co-hosts: Mary Kissel, Wall Street Journal editorial board & host of OpinionJournal.com; Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents.

Hour One

Thursday  3 July 2014 / Hour 1, Block A: Mary Kissel, Wall Street Journal editorial board & host of OpinionJournal.com; in re:   Charlesetta Jennings, in a North Carolina law firm, had breast cancer and was unable to lift heavy cartons; they wanted her to stay and worked to make accommodations, but eventually were unable and so fired her. She sued under EEOC. The court – an Obama-appointed judge - said, You don’t even have enough evidence to bring a case against the law firm. The EEOC interpretation was photocopying and paperwork, whereas the law firm had long defined it as  including carrying some cartons. The result of the whole stream of events is a tragedy for Ms Jennings and a vast, expensive overreach by a govt agency that wanted to extend the Americans with Disabilities Act. If a company is doing something discriminatory, we must prosecute. If a governmental agency is working to stretch or abuse the law, then that needs to be noted and dealt with.  This agency has not been scrutinized, media have ignored it, it’s lost a handful of cases in the last few years.   [more]

Thursday  3 July 2014 / Hour 1, Block B:  Edward W Hayes, criminal defense attorney par excellence, in re: Stop and first in New York, slowed down by issues of tribe, race, economics; the new mayor stopped the program on the grounds that the police raining was poor – but now the rate of shootings has increased alarmingly, along with a 10% decrease in gun arrests this year.  Probable that the persons not arrested with guns are out shooting people.  The people most hurt are working-class neighborhoods. People work like dogs to buy a good entertainment system or computer and someone breaks in to steal it.  Six hundred rookies being put in to high-risk precincts for sixty days; all are well trained and physically very fit, but told not to put their hands on anyone.  Crime is like a dam: once there's a break in it, it explodes quickly. 

Thursday  3 July 2014 / Hour 1, Block C: Jim McTague, Barron's Washington, in re: A good jobs report this month.   Dow pleased; Fed will have to recall the mists of history to tighten.  Five successive months of  pick-up in household formation.  If it continues, 2015 should be a good year. Disturbing: huge increase in number of temporary workers.  Check this again in a month. Employment participation rate continues to decline.  Story today: 40% of unemployed workers are millennials – 18 to 29 years old; it's our younger generation that's getting crushed.  If you've been looking for a hob for months unsuccessfully and stop for two weeks, you’re called "unattached."  Add 2 million to the marginally attached people.  Prof Cochran at Hoover says macroeconomics has failed.  This is a president who does not know how to horse-trade to get a deal done so he uses Executive powers.  . . . Unusual numbers of American youth don’t qualify for the military due to obesity, weak education, Ritalin, tattoos – we've failed to impart the importance of gaining a solid knowledge in school.  I hear all the time from employers: "I have a job but can’t find a kid who can pass a math test or a urine test."  The Army is extremely disappointed and is turning away people. 

Thursday  3 July 2014 / Hour 1, Block D: Amity Shlaes, Calvin Coolidge Foundation, in re: The Fourth of July is Coolidge's birthday. Here is a link to what we do that day: We read aloud from Coolidge's autobiography. This is a vigil.   An article is here. Another article is about the import of what we do at the Notch all summer: teach young people to debate economics. Plymouth Notch, Vermont: on 4 July, a march to the cemetery where Pres Coolidge is buried.  Then to the Coolidge Church and read his entire autobiography. Later, to his farm. Hand-over of power from Pres Harding, who'd just died in the middle of the night; Coolidge's father then swore his son in to the presidency by the power vested in him as a notary.  We also hold debates among high school students.

Hour Two

Thursday  3 July 2014 / Hour 2, Block A: Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents, & Daveed Gartenstein-Ross, senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and at security studies, Georgetown University; in re: continuing forensic  work on the body of the young Palestinian; Islam requires that a deceased person be buried very swiftly.  Ramadi, Fallujah. Major offensive by ISIS started on June 10; announced caliphate.  Premature announcement.  Ayman al Zawahiri [al Qaeda] laughed at the premature announcement.  Probably not sustainable: ISIS claims 20,000 fighters, but probably have 7,000; even with the larger number couldn’t hold the territory they've claimed so have to depend on a coalition of collegial organizations.   . . . These moves make Kurdish independence virtually inevitable. Looking to see what Baghdad can do for them before they get involved at all.  

Thursday  3 July 2014 / Hour 2, Block B: Simon Henderson, Baker Fellow and director of the Gulf and Energy Policy Program at The Washington Institute; in re:  Does Riyadh gain with the Maliki crisis?  Yes. In that Saudi strategy for the last three years anent Syria has been to organize the overthrow of Bashar al Assad, an ally of Iran. Hasn’t worked out, but Saudis also dislike Maliki as an Iranian stooge. The advance of ISIS into Iraq and embarrassment to Maliki is at least a tactical, maybe a strategic, setback to Maliki.  In this sense there's a connection between what Saudis and ISIS want. Internal changes in Saudi, rotating positions.  The king has announced that he'll give $500 million to those Iraqi people who've had their lives disrupted, via the UN.  Inside Saudi Arabia, the 91-yr-old king's succession is a major domestic question; his younger brother Salman is in his 80s, having memory problems. Salman is both crown prince and Defense Minister.  Qatar-Saudi rivalry?  Saudi Arabia has a  28mil population, Qatar has 2 million (and mostly foreigners). Qatar has the habit of trying to irritate Saudis, doing it well. Proxy fight in Syria – Qataris are supporting even more bloodthirsty fighters than are the Saudis. With ISIS in Iraq, the stakes are now much higher. 

Thursday  3 July 2014 / Hour 2, Block C: Olli Heinonen, senior Fellow at Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Kennedy School (Harvard); previously: 27 years at IAEA in Vienna; in re: number of centrifuges in Iran – at odds between negotiators and Iran; also: what Iran is doing with ___ dvpt.  We know how many in Natanz & _  - 1900 old type & 1,000 of new type CIA hasn’t been able to determine.  Also: We know Iran has 3.5% enriched uranium (5 tons) – is this all? is there addtl nuclear material?  Also, R&D related to nuclear weapons?  These three are the essential considerations.  negotiators need a legally-binding arrangement with better information.   . . .  We're still talking about centrifuges, bounds of inspection, number of  _ - we've been talking about this since last November. Three weeks till the famous July deadline. Parties have very different views.  One argument is that the importance of the number of centrifuges is not as important as rivaled by volume/number in storage – the level of storage.  Breeder reactor.  In a short time, the Arak heavy water plant can quickly be converted to produce plutonium.  Iran also has economic problems. Ballistic missiles. Most important is to know R&D.  Given the lies of past negotiations . . .  yes, bad experience from previous agreements; next must be legally binding; if delays or noncooperation, must have firm consequences.  If we repeat the same exercise again, it'll be like Einstein's dictum: To repeat same exercise repeatedly and think you'll get  better result is madness.  July 20 deadline:  U hexafluoride; every month(?) 250 kg. ;note that 1.2 tons is enough to produce a nuclear device. We can’t just continue [to defer]. Also the other unknowns: what else does Iran have?

Thursday  3 July 2014 / Hour 2, Block D:  Lt. Col. (ret.) Jonathan D. Halevi, senior researcher, Middle East and radical Islam, Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs; in re: The Islamic state has control in much of Syria, also in northern Iraq incl strategic cities, and he border between the two is now controlled by ISIS, which also has seized large volumes of weapons. Caliph has issued a worldwide call to Muslims to pledge allegiance to the caliphate. Today, in Gaza a crowd of hundreds pledged allegiance to the caliphate – as did a bunch of Canadians.  Struggle of power over legitimacy.  Caliphate does not appeal to masses?  Same as Muslim Brotherhood before the Arab Spring.  Party of Islamic Liberation – West Bank, Gaza, Jordan, England, Australia (?). On Friday, it'll be interesting to see how the call of the caliphate is responded to by the faithful.  Jordan is in the center of the crosshairs of the caliphate, being the weak link. 

Hour Three

Thursday  3 July 2014 / Hour 3, Block A:  Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents, in re:   at the African Union meeting in Equatorial Guinea earlier this week, Malcolm Hoenlein was a member of a delegation of US businessmen who'd been working to advance African economies; well received all Wednesday incl by Pres Museveni and many other delegates. On Thursday at opening session, we were given prominent seats; one-hour delay of start, then someone told us that countries objected to the presence of an Israeli delegation. What? we're not Israeli, we're all Americans – and further, Israel has  been at the fore of helping Africans.  Egypt was the primary objector, with al Sisi at the lead.   The leaders were: Iranians, Palestinians and Egyptians.  I instructed our US business delegation to leave in objection to blatant racism.  In the entire room, one seat as allocated for all Americans, which was odd and significantly inconvenient.  Funeral of the three murdered Israeli teenagers; also the death of a Palestinian teenager. (His family is a criminal gang that has active beefs with other criminal gangs.)  . . .  Border with Jordan is secure; it relies more than ever on Israel, esp with ISIS.  Most Palestinians do not want another intifadah.  Yesterday, 3o missiles were fired from Gaza by Hamas; hit homes, and are getting longer-range.  This constitutes a red line that at some point Israel won’t be able to tolerate. Tens of thousands of missiles hhave been smuggled through the tunnels, Egypt is trying to stop that.  Internal struggle between Hamas and Fatah, as Abu Mazen is refusing to pay 50,ooo Hamas members and instead pays his own guys.  A very tense situation.  

Thursday  3 July 2014 / Hour 3, Block B: Henry I Miller, M.D., Hoover, WSJ & Forbes.com, in re: Greens and Genes

Thursday  3 July 2014 / Hour 3, Block C: Daniel Henninger, WSJ WONDER LAND , in re:   Obama's Troublesome Congress Pres
Barack Obama reduces the separation of powers to stump-speech ridicule. The president doesn’t seem to enjoy any give and take of politics. His own Democrats seem to be the most frustrated.  . . . We don’t need a rookie in the White House, or a rock star. 

Thursday  3 July 2014 / Hour 3, Block D: Robert Zimmerman, behindtheblack.com, in re: Orbital Sciences has set July 11 as the launch date for its next Cygnus cargo mission to ISS.

They have concluded their inspection of the refurbished Russian engines on the Antares rocket and are satisfied it does not have the problems that caused another engine to blow up during tests.

NASA and Boeing today signed a $2.8 billion contract for Boeing to build the core stage of the SLS rocket.  Scheduled for its initial test flight in 2017, the SLS is designed to be flexible and evolvable to meet a variety of crew and cargo mission needs. The initial flight-test configuration will provide a 77-ton capacity, and the final evolved two-stage configuration will provide a lift capability of more than 143 tons.  It would be nice for the U.S. to have this heavy-lift rocket, but I fully expect the funds to run out immediately after it makes its inaugural flight, despite the wonderful pork it provides to so many Congressional districts. It just costs too much per launch.

Running from competition: The Russian space agency Roskosmos has decided not to spend the money necessary to buy Sea Launch and make it part of its consolidated United Rocket and Space Corporation (URSC).

Part of the reason the Russians are abandoning Sea Launch is that the rocket the ocean-going platform uses is the Ukrainian-built Zenit rocket, and Russia wants URSC to a wholly Russian operation. Rather than partner with Ukraine for profit, they will let the business die.

The competition heats up: The commercial satellite company Inmarsat has booked SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy rocket for one firm launch and two additional options.

The firm contract is for the launch, scheduled perhaps aggressively for late 2016, of a satellite being built for both Inmarsat and Arabsat of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Arabsat will use the satellite for conventional telecommunications services for its wholly owned Hellas-Sat fleet operator of Greece. The Inmarsat payload uses S-band to provide mobile communications in Europe as part of a satellite-terrestrial broadband network, which is a new business line for Inmarsat.

Inmarsat’s launch contract is for a rocket that has not even yet been tested once, which tells us something about the faith they have in SpaceX. While I'd be shocked if they didn’t have an option to pull out, should there be significant delays or problems in launching Falcon Heavy, that they are willing to commit to it now is a convincing endorsement of SpaceX.

Hour Four

Thursday  3 July 2014 / Hour 4, Block A: American Fun: Four Centuries of Joyous Revolt by John Beckman (1 of 4)

Thursday  3 July 2014 / Hour 4, Block B: American Fun: Four Centuries of Joyous Revolt by John Beckman (2 of 4)

Thursday  3 July 2014 / Hour 4, Block C: American Fun: Four Centuries of Joyous Revolt by John Beckman (3 of 4)

Thursday  3 July 2014 / Hour 4, Block D: American Fun: Four Centuries of Joyous Revolt by John Beckman (4 of 4)