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JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Co-hosts: Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents
 
Hour One
Thursday   31 August 2017  / Hour 1, Block A: Liz Peek, Fiscal Times and Fox News, in re:  GOP; tax reform; Hurricane Harvey; Trump’s best week; Pence working Louisiana (and being praised by Norah O’Donnell on MSNBC). 
Thursday   31 August 2017  / Hour 1, Block B: Bud Weinstein, Southern Methodist University, in re: Houston’s recovery.  Estimate that 100K houses were damaged from floods, but there was not much wind so many are salvageable.  Houston’s economy is $5 bil annually; Texas’s is $6.7 bil  We’ll recover completely.
Thursday   31 August 2017  / Hour 1, Block C: Michael Pregent, Executive Director of VATD, Adjunct Fellow, Hudson Institute; in re:  Mosul, Raqqa, Tel Afar,
2005-6:I was embedded in the Kurdish Pershmerga; we arrived to fight a Wolf Brigade (Shi’a-infiltrated); western Mosul fighting its height. Gen Odierno.  Baghdad sent political appointments, ineffective commanders. At checkpoints, civilians were “taxed.”  If you wanted to open a small business,  you had to get military approval. Maliki dismantled the Sons of Iraq, and Awakening, 90,00 trained soldiers who protected Iraq, and were key in obliterating al Qaeda; Maliki arrested the leadership. We then were notified of a security void, as Maliki was politicizing the force; he and we had no interest in securing Nineweh or other places, so ISIS took over there.
We saw all this happening; Obama told us not to interfere.   From 2010to 2014, the Pershmerga – who fought both Sunni insurgents and al Qaeda - were kicked out. We were aware that Yazidis were targetted by al Qaeda and the militias. When ISIS rolled into Nineweh, they made deals with local leadership, resented themselves as saviors. Bargained their way in, and once the politicized army units, Second and Third Divisions, which Maliki had created, ISIS took over and notified everyone that you either swear allegiance to us or die.
Thursday   31 August 2017  / Hour 1, Block D:  : Michael Pregent, Executive Director of VATD, Adjunct Fellow, Hudson Institute; in re:  Mosul, Raqqa, Tel Afar.  In 2017, in Mosul, wet side of city is 60% destroyed; east side, 20% destroyed. City of over two million people.  E warned that Mosul didn't have to be like Fallujah – but it became worse.  Govt estimate 1,400 people died; others, at 20,000 to 30,000. . . . Where are the Sunni or Kurdish brigades?  None. Everything is Badr Corps-led; Badr Corps is Iranian proxy.
 
Hour Two
THE EL AL REPORT WITH MALCOLM HOENLEIN
Thursday   31 August 2017  / Hour 2, Block A:  Eric Trager, The Washington Institute; in re:  Last week it was announced that Washington had “delayed” essential aid to Washington – as it turns out, for no strategic reason, where the left hand had no clue what the right hand was doing; no idea that Jared Kushner would be meeting with Pres el Sisi the next day, A basic bureaucratic snafu where this administration failed to manage the bureaucracy, Looks awful. Civil servants end to view Egypt not only as a strategic partner but as a [target?] for democracy promotion.
Because Pres Trump doesn't have all senior officials in place, it allowed bureaucrats to get the upper hand. However, president-to-president is going well on the phone, but the bottom line is that each official has a different take on what Egypt needs to do to be eligible for aid. Ergo, we have not policy.
Gaza and Hamas. UAE and Egypt trying to isolate Qatar, in part by making Hamas more dependent on Egypt, less on the UAE or Qatar.  Islands: will be turned over to Saudi Arabia – Egypt is dependent on Saudis.  The mil is behind Sisi 100%. 
Libya, a failed state with multiple militant jihadi groups are fighting each other, is massively unstable, porous border; unstable for years to come and a vivid danger to Egypt
·         http://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/1.809630
·         https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/world/middle_east/since-trumps-mi...
·         https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/jan/26/egypt-blocks-social-media-...
Eric Trager, the Esther K. Wagner Fellow at The Washington Institute, is an expert on Egyptian politics and the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. He was in Egypt during the 2011 anti-Mubarak revolts and returns frequently to conduct firsthand interviews with leaders in Egypt's government, military, political parties, media, and civil society. His writings have appeared in numerous publications, including the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Foreign Affairs, the Atlantic, and the New Republic.
THE EL AL REPORT WITH MALCOLM HOENLEIN
Thursday   31 August 2017  / Hour 2, Block B:  Clifford D. May, Foundation for Defense of Democracies; in re: Ian is trying to rebuild the Persian Empire by their own jihad; recruit soldiers. Want to have Iraq, Syria (via Hezbollah), Gaza, and Afghanistan supporting Taliban and al Qaeda and bringing in soldiers fro worldwide to fight. Turkey looking to build bases in Afghanistan. Pres Trump was persuaded that pulling out of Afghanistan would be a bad idea; true, if you left, it’d be very hard to get back in and it’d be seen as the US defeated.  Wd be viewed happily by jihadists everywhere. Note that Baghdad/Teheran intend to march on Kirkuk; take on the Kurds. A very dangerous notion. Shi’a militias are under Iranian control, of course.  Kurds are short-changed by US as Washington demands Kurds get their arms from Baghdad, which will not occur because Baghdad is basically Iranian.
Haqqani Network:  close affiliate of Taliban and al Q.
Is ISIS an active participant in Afgh/Pakistan?  Not as large. 
Do not expect jihadis to negotiate peace, as the US Secy of State suggested might be done.
·         http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/afghanistan-and-the-war-against...
·         http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/bill-roggio-analysis-coalition-...
·         http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/thomas-joscelyn-sending-more-tr...
·         http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/thomas-joscelyn-sending-more-tr...
·         http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/foreign-policy/347501-trumps-right...
·         http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/president-trumps...
Clifford D. May is the founder and President of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a nonpartisan policy institute focusing on national security created immediately following the 9/11/01 attacks on the United States. Under his leadership, FDD has become one of the nation’s most highly regarded think tanks and a sought-after voice on a wide range of national security issues.
THE EL AL REPORT WITH MALCOLM HOENLEIN
Thursday   31 August 2017  / Hour 2, Block C:  Omri Ceren, The Israel Project, in re:  Iran. Will we have the total text of the JCPOA, including the “secret” portions?  Evasive answer from the Trump Administration. Every 90 days the president has to certify that Iran is (four questions) on whether or not it's in US natl interest. (In fact, we know that it's not.) Journalists  have got this terribly wrong.
- Central question is: Is Iran is fully and transparently implementing the JCPOA and all related agreements, in fact and in spirit?  When Iran prevents IAEA from checking, that’s grounds for decertification.
Note that Iran is using its civilian aircraft to move troops into Syria. Boeing is trying to sell aircraft to IranAir.
There are tensions across the administration.
Pres Trump has twice certified Iran – which was intended for the public to be able to evaluate the merits. We don't know the secret exemptions Iran was given, from Day One, to keep uranium. That’s one of many many things we don't know. On Oct 115 he president will have to decide again.
Macron/France are looing to create circumstance to limit? . . . to legitimate? Iran.  Cynicism is merited.  People inside State Dept, what it's trying to do is go back to the president, say, “We know you want to decertify the deal, but we’re working on it so please don't decertify.” In other words, it's a ploy!
·         http://jcpa.org/article/irans-new-defense-minister-committed-irans-missile-program-export-revolution/
 Omri Ceren is the Managing Director for Press and Strategy at The Israel Project. He is a political operative and an academic who has been involved in politics and journalism for over a decade, with a focus on Israel and Iran issues. Ceren is a Ph.D. Candidate in Communication at the University of Southern California's Annenberg School.
THE EL AL REPORT WITH MALCOLM HOENLEIN
Thursday   31 August 2017  / Hour 2, Block D: Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents, in re: Abbas (Abu Mazen) is speaking of a one-state solution; setting up a deadline of a month or so (very short timeline)  for discussions.  Despite unanimous condemnation by Congress and many European countries, he refuses to cease payments for murder or training kindergarteners for mass killing squads.   Greenblatt says PA has to rule Gaza? Abu Mazen keeps threatening o go to one or another UN agency in order to slow down or sabotage movement toward an effective peace deal.
Turkey and Iran want to reestablish control (Caliphate or Empire);  they’re providing more weapons to ISIS or Hezbollah, respectively. New Iranian defense minister identifies with all earlier goals and gives special support to Quds Brigades. Thus, Iran will play an ever more destructive role.
Tillerson affirms appoining an envoy on Anti-Semitism. 
 
Hour Three
Thursday   31 August 2017  / Hour 3, Block A: Roger Sedjo, PERC Montana, and senior Fellow at Resources for the Future;  in re: The National Forest Service.
Thursday   31 August 2017  / Hour 3, Block B:  Roger Sedjo, PERC Montana, and senior Fellow at Resources for the Future;  in re: The National Forest Service
Thursday   31 August 2017  / Hour 3, Block C:  Mary Anastasia O’Grady, WSJ editorial board, in re:  Cuba. Violence.
Thursday   31 August 2017  / Hour 3, Block D:  Mary Anastasia O’Grady, WSJ editorial board, in re:  Cuba. Violence.
 
Hour Four
Thursday   31 August 2017  / Hour 4, Block A: Jonathan W. Jordan, American Warlords: How Roosevelt's High Command Led America to Victory in World War II
Thursday   31 August 2017  / Hour 4, Block B: Jonathan W. Jordan, American Warlords: How Roosevelt's High Command Led America to Victory in World War II
Thursday   31 August 2017  / Hour 4, Block C:,  Conrad Black, Flight of the Eagle: The Grand Strategies That Brought America from Colonial Dependence to World Leadership
Thursday   31 August 2017  / Hour 4, Block D:  Conrad Black, Flight of the Eagle: The Grand Strategies That Brought America from Colonial Dependence to World Leadership
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