Graphic, above: The Greater Black Sea Basin, from the Adriatic in the East to the Caspian Sea in the West; from Ukraine in the North to Turkey’s border with Iran in the South.  Moscow understands that all these states already are under pressure from their tribal minorities. 

The Catchment Area - Black Sea Drainage Basin:  An important feature of the Black Sea is an unusually high river discharge into the relatively small semi-enclosed Sea. The Black Sea drainage basin covers almost third part of Europe; the largest river is Danube flowing through 10 European countries, other big rivers are Dnieper, Bug, Dniester, Don, Kuban, Rioni. The average annual river runoff into Black Sea is 350 km3, whereas the Black Sea volume is 550000 km3. This water head creates a current from the Black Sea - through the Straits and the Sea of Marmora - to the Mediterranean. 

JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW

Co-host: Larry Kudlow, The Kudlow Report, CNBC; and Cumulus Media radio

Hour One

Tuesday  25 March  2014 / Hour 1, Block A: Larry Kudlow, in re: Gov Rick Perry, points out that the US is an energy superpower; that the reason Europe pays fealty to Russia is that it's an energy superpower. "Takes what’s going in the US, incl fracking; add to it Canada's and Mexico's oil fields, and among these three countries, will have more O&G than any other country in the world, can supply Europe to get it out from under the Russian yoke."  Obama Adm finally gave a permit to an Oregon gas export firm – the first such.  Perry: We have enough LNG to cover Europe.    Texas: a red-state jobs mecca – pro-growth; also states rights. Howard Dean: "Gov Perry does not lead a successful state – children uninsured; not enough highly-paid jobs ["but this is inaccurate - $80-$100/hr"].

Tuesday  25 March  2014 / Hour 1, Block B: Stephen Moore, Heritage, in re: ENVIRONMENTALISM   Sue-and-Settle Racket   Blocking development over a chicken.  The ordeal of the little Prairie Chicken – all will be sacrificed to the progressive wing of the Democratic Party, which want to save the chicken.  Many believe this about not saving chickens but about stopping oil and gas dvpt, to suit environmentalists.  They find these chickens, go right to the Obama Adm, put them a proposed list which stultifies dvpt till it's all solved: Sue and Settle – sue the Dept of ht Interior for not having taken action right away – with a wink and a nod.  If you find one Prairie Chicken, you automatically must create a four-mile radius of no dvpt.  All this massively attracts progressive donors.  We've got so much on-shore oil – tripled production recently; more than all of Saudi peninsula, combined – we don't need to do off-shore drilling.  Coal funds several states: we don't have to burn the coal here, can export it; [SM:] it now burns cleaner than ever before, can run a country for a century. LK: I don’t agree; it’s not very clean. 

Tuesday  25 March  2014 / Hour 1, Block C: Michael Boskin, Hoover, Project Syndicate,  in re: Coming Together and Falling Apart  devolutions of Scotland and Catalunya, for example. Salmond says: all that oil and gas out there is ours.  Currency issues. North Sea oil is declining; but Scots point to the Norwegian model, which is superb. Chileans, anent copper: an independent board estimates the copper income and anything above that which comes in goes directly into a long-term fund for the populace when copper money dwindles. Note that people who vote with their feet, go from California to Texas, are creating devolution.

Tuesday  25 March  2014 / Hour 1, Block D: Ramesh Ponnuru, Bloomberg View,  in re: Yellen's first press conference. Central bankers – nay, all bankers – want max info and maximum power.  A clear policy is a stronger policy, esp regarding interest rates.  She's been thought of as relatively dovish, but all these people make us go through tea-leaf reading exercises; like Delphic oracles. 

Yellen's other problem. "Some of Yellen's critics fault her for being too forthright and specific. The Fed often gets knocked for being unclear, they say, but opacity has its virtues. This critique seems off the mark. If the Fed really does intend to tighten monetary policy six months after QE ends -- or roughly next spring, if present trends continue -- the market will have to adjust to that event soon enough. In that case, specificity would be no sin. But Yellen's other remarks at the news conference suggest that the Fed doesn't desire to be ruled by the calendar. Economic conditions will guide its decisions. It expects those conditions to justify tightening early next year, but it isn't committed to tightening if conditions develop in some unexpected way. To the extent Yellen's remarks were problematic, then, it was not because they made the Fed more transparent but because they made it less so. They may have been misleading about the central bank's intentions, making it seem as though the Fed were more eager to tighten money than it is."

Hour Two

Tuesday  25 March  2014 / Hour 2, Block A:  Stephen F. Cohen, NYU & Princeton prof Emeritus ;  author: Soviet Fates and Lost Alternatives: From Stalinism to the New Cold War, & The Victims Return: Survivors of the Gulag after Stalin; in re: Western leaders say they'll punish Russia with sanctions; have excluded Russia from G-8; Obama said "We won't use mil force to recover Crimea; Russia threatens its neighbors so NATO will mobilize its forces for defense."  If he manages to rally all Euro countries in harsh sanctions, or if he's going to move NATO troops to the western Polish border – if that, we'd be approaching the Cuban missile crisis in intensity. France has two warships bout to sail to Russia (purchases); Russian oligarchs are infamous n London, no effort to kick 'em out.   Ford, Pepsico, ExxonMobil, John Deere - all deeply invested in Russia and intend to stay.  ExxonMobil had a large contract with the defunct Ukrainian govt, but has a much larger one with Russia.  One does want one's leader to be effective; the more the Pres Obama threatens, the less effective he seems.  He's said a number of things that can’t be accomplished.  On 17 March, Russia put its first bid for negotiations on the table.  Our own Russian oligarch, Prokharov, said he'll move the Brooklyn Nets to Russia: for five years, Putin has been trying to get  the oligarchs to bring assets home so Russian banks can hold the deposits and make loans, and so the Russian govt can tax the assets.   The US threat of sanctions in this instance helps Russia.  

 G-7 Agrees 
to Exclude Russia, Boost Sanctions
 The leaders of the world's largest advanced economies moved Monday to isolate Russia, severing a key link between Moscow and the Western world after nearly two decades. The leaders of the Group of Seven, or G-7, nations effectively disbanded the larger G-8 by excluding Russia until it changes course in Ukraine. They also agreed to exert punitive sanctions on Russia's energy, banking, finance and arms industries unless... G-7 Nations' Statement   Live: Latest Updates  Russia Foreign Minister Meets Ukraine Counterpart

Tuesday  25 March  2014 / Hour 2, Block B: Stephen F. Cohen, NYU & Princeton prof Emeritus ;  author: Soviet Fates and Lost Alternatives: From Stalinism to the New Cold War, & The Victims Return: Survivors of the Gulag after Stalin; in re: Robert Gates publishes a madly pugilistic op-ed in the WSJ – advocating taking this Crimean crisis to the brink?  Drumbeat for war. Congress couldn't agree on giving money to help Ukraine.  Putin was elected – would have done so even if he hadn’t bogarted the votes.  When Gates says "strip Russia of its legitimacy" – that's absurd.  Gates says, offer Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine entry into NATO – and it was this exactly that triggered the current Ukrainian crisis. All the EU did was tell Ukraine, "Sign an agreement with us and you'll be prosperous and democratic – except for the small print: no relationship with Russia (what? impossible from a practical point of view), and security: if you sign, must make your security policy conform to that of the EU – i.e., NATO.  Ergo, to sign, have to be affiliated with NATO  which is in fact Putin's real red line. 

Obama Assures NATO but Says Force Won’t Be Used in Crimea  President Obama said the U.S. and other world powers rejected Russia’s annexation of Crimea, but he acknowledged that military force would not be used to return it to Ukraine, which is not a member of NATO. Obama Dismisses Threat to Russians

Tuesday  25 March  2014 / Hour 2, Block C: Stephen F. Cohen, NYU & Princeton prof Emeritus;  author: Soviet Fates and Lost Alternatives: From Stalinism to the New Cold War, & The Victims Return: Survivors of the Gulag after Stalin; in re: The Greater Black Sea Basin:  Baltics to Turkey, Ukraine to Kazakhstan.  Also Shanghai Cooperation Organization – Russia & China; Central Asian republics; also observers: Mongolia, Pakistan, Afghanistan

--- John Batchelor and Putin may have only one thing in common: you both think of the entire world. . . . Putin pondering where he'll supply his O&G.  Western mantra is "isolate Russia" – so it’ll turn east, to China.  Also India: buys a huge amt of mil eqpt from Russia. As Russia turns eastward, it'll pretty much cease bothering with democracy. This is no longer a unipolar conversation; Moscow and China have population, energy, and GDP growth essayed of them.   Poor Merkel has to play a key role here; were she to approve large Western loans to Ukraine but ot Greece or Spain – oops.  When the USSR had its borders on Western nations, Western values were transmitted. But if the new cold war is on Russia's border, then all the influence will be from the east. Also, Russia has 20 mil Muslim citizens and has mediated between Islam and the West   Pending arms sale to Cairo (paid by Riyadh);  from Iran to Afghanistan . . .  this is a history-changing moment. I'm getting strange email, from Americans not n the left or right, seem to admire Putin's resolve. They say they're not sure if he's right or wrong on Ukraine, but at least he knows what he wants and how to go about getting it. 

Obama: Russia is a ‘regional power’ acting with weakness. But the president also acknowledged that Vladimir Putin’s annexation of Crimea would be difficult to reverse.  Ukraine fires its defense minister . 

Tuesday  25 March  2014 / Hour 2, Block D: Stephen F. Cohen, NYU & Princeton prof Emeritus ;  author: Soviet Fates and Lost Alternatives: From Stalinism to the New Cold War, & The Victims Return: Survivors of the Gulag after Stalin; in re: McCain was n British TV saying htat military is he only way to respond to Ukraine – accused Putin of being Adolph Hitler, From an American POV, that's way over the line.  Kremlin regards McCain as a wacko; but H Clinton also said that. If Putin is Hitler, then this is Munich  and you can't negotiate, so you have to go to war.  US calls Putin an autocrat – one who makes all the decisions – which is not correct. He balances the views around him. Some of his coterie call him an appeaser.   Obama is at least indecisive, probably weak.  Hawks in Russia and America are pushing toward war.  Not much debate in the US. In Russia, the debate occurs in a small group of maybe 150 people, each group with its newspaper.  This whole crisis is all about NATO edging up to being tangent with Russia; Putin has 80% support for his moves. His crew says: You have all the cards, take everything; the other side says, this is dangerous, let’s be careful.  Meanwhile, the US astronauts who've just left Baikonur are not being allowed to enter the Space Station. 

 

Russian President Vladimir Putin has a long-festering grudge: He deeply resents the West for winning the Cold War. He blames the United States in particular for the collapse of his beloved Soviet Union, an event he has called the "worst geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century."

His list of grievances is long and was on full display in his March 18 speech announcing the annexation of Crimea by Russia. He is bitter about what he sees as Russia's humiliations in the 1990s—economic collapse; the expansion of NATO to include members of the U.S.S.R.'s own "alliance," the Warsaw Pact; Russia's agreement to the treaty limiting conventional forces in Europe, or as he calls it, "the colonial treaty"; the West's perceived dismissal of Russian interests in Serbia and elsewhere; attempts to bring Ukraine and Georgia into NATO and the European Union; and Western governments, businessmen and scholars all telling Russia how to conduct its affairs at home and abroad. Mr. Putin aspires to restore Russia's global power and influence and to bring the now-independent states that were once part of the Soviet Union back into Moscow's orbit. While he has no apparent desire to recreate the Soviet Union (which would include responsibility for a number of economic basket cases), he is determined to create a Russian sphere of influence—political, economic and security—and dominance. There is no grand plan or strategy to do this, just opportunistic and ruthless aspiration. And patience.

Mr. Putin, who began his third, nonconsecutive presidential term in 2012, is playing a long game. He can afford to: Under the Russian Constitution, he could legally remain president until 2024. After the internal chaos of the 1990s, he has ruthlessly restored "order" to Russia, oblivious to protests at home and abroad over his repression of nascent Russian democracy and political freedoms.

In recent years, he has turned his authoritarian eyes on the "near-abroad." In 2008, the West did little as he invaded Georgia, and Russian troops still occupy the Abkhazia and South Ossetia regions. He has forced Armenia to break off its agreements with the European Union, and Moldova is under similar pressure.

Last November, through economic leverage and political muscle, he forced then-President Viktor Yanukovych to abort a Ukrainian agreement with the EU that would have drawn it toward the West. When Mr. Yanukovych, his minion, was ousted as a result, Mr. Putin seized Crimea and is now making ominous claims and military movements regarding all of eastern Ukraine.

Ukraine is central to Mr. Putin's vision of a pro-Russian bloc, partly because of its size and importantly because of Kiev's role as the birthplace of the Russian Empire more than a thousand years ago. He will not be satisfied or rest until a pro-Russian government is restored in Kiev.

He also has a dramatically different worldview than the leaders of Europe and the U.S. He does not share Western leaders' reverence for international law, the sanctity of borders, which Westerners' believe should only be changed through negotiation, due process and rule of law. He has no concern for human and political rights. Above all, Mr. Putin clings to a zero-sum worldview. Contrary to the West's belief in the importance of win-win relationships among nations, for Mr. Putin every transaction is win-lose; when one party benefits, the other must lose. For him, attaining, keeping and amassing power is the name of the game.

The only way to counter Mr. Putin's aspirations on Russia's periphery is for the West also to play a strategic long game. That means to take actions that unambiguously demonstrate to Russians that his worldview and goals—and his means of achieving them—over time will dramatically weaken and isolate Russia.

Europe's reliance on Russian oil and gas must be reduced, and truly meaningful economic sanctions must be imposed, knowing there may be costs to the West as well. NATO allies bordering Russia must be militarily strengthened and reinforced with alliance forces; and the economic and cyber vulnerabilities of the Baltic states to Russian actions must be reduced (especially given the number of Russians and Russian-speakers in Estonia and Latvia).

Western investment in Russia should be curtailed; Russia should be expelled from the G-8 and other forums that offer respect and legitimacy; the U.S. defense budget should be restored to the level proposed in the Obama administration's 2014 budget a year ago, and the Pentagon directed to cut overhead drastically, with saved dollars going to enhanced capabilities, such as additional Navy ships; U.S. military withdrawals from Europe should be halted; and the EU should be urged to grant associate agreements with Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine.

So far, however, the Western response has been anemic. Mr. Putin is little influenced by seizure of personal assets of his cronies or the oligarchs, or restrictions on their travel. Unilateral U.S. sanctions, save on Russian banks, will not be effective absent European cooperation. The gap between Western rhetoric and Western actions in response to out-and-out aggression is a yawning chasm. The message seems to be that if Mr. Putin doesn't move troops into eastern Ukraine, the West will impose no further sanctions or costs. De facto, Russia's seizure of Crimea will stand and, except for a handful of Russian officials, business will go on as usual.

No one wants a new Cold War, much less a military confrontation. We want Russia to be a partner, but that is now self-evidently not possible under Mr. Putin's leadership. He has thrown down a gauntlet that is not limited to Crimea or even Ukraine. His actions challenge the entire post-Cold War order including, above all, the right of independent states to align themselves and do business with whomever they choose.

Tacit acceptance of settling old revanchist scores by force is a formula for ongoing crises and potential armed conflict, whether in Europe, Asia or elsewhere. A China behaving with increasing aggressiveness in the East and South China seas, an Iran with nuclear aspirations and interventionist policies in the Middle East, and a volatile and unpredictable North Korea are all watching events in Europe. They have witnessed the fecklessness of the West in Syria. Similar division and weakness in responding to Russia's most recent aggression will, I fear, have dangerous consequences down the road.

Mr. Putin's challenge comes at a most unpropitious time for the West. Europe faces a weak economic recovery and significant economic ties with Russia. The U.S. is emerging from more than a dozen years at war and leaders in both parties face growing isolationism among voters, with the prospect of another major challenge abroad cutting across the current political grain. Crimea and Ukraine are far away, and their importance to Europe and America little understood by the public.

Therefore, the burden of explaining the need to act forcefully falls, as always, on our leaders. As President Franklin D. Roosevelt said, "Government includes the act of formulating a policy" and "persuading, leading, sacrificing, teaching always, because the greatest duty of a statesman is to educate." The aggressive, arrogant actions of Vladimir Putin require from Western leaders strategic thinking, bold leadership and steely resolve—now.

Hour Three

Tuesday  25 March  2014 / Hour 3, Block A: 1043  Danielle Ivory, NYT, in re:

Carmaker Misled Grieving Families on a Lethal Flaw

Tuesday  25 March  2014 / Hour 3, Block B:  Salena Zito, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review & Pirates fan, in re: Through seven terms in Congress, Shelley Moore Capito largely has avoided national attention. Now her U.S. Senate race has raised her profile as one of the Republican Party's best hopes to tip the chamber's balance of power.  The party could win a narrow majority this fall if it holds onto its 45 Senate seats and takes six of the 55 held by Democrats, including that of West Virginia's Jay Rockefeller, who is retiring. Political strategists agree that Capito's candidacy presents the GOP with a good opportunity.

“This race is quickly becoming ‘likely Republican' if things continue to come together for Capito,” said Kyle Kondik, a University of Virginia political analyst. “... She is one of the few moderate candidates out there and has the right profile in this state to become the first Republican senator since the 1950s.” If she beats her Democratic challenger, Secretary of State Natalie Tennant, Capito would become the state's first female senator; she was its first female in Congress with her election to the 2nd District seat. She and Tennant have underfunded challengers with low name recognition in their parties' May primary.

“My race for Congress in 2000 was so close, so close. But I knew if I won, it was big, not because it was me but because I was a Republican, which meant ... all of those straight-ticket party voters started listening to the message and the messenger,” Capito told the Tribune-Review during a visit to Wheeling last week.  A mother of three and grandmother of two, Capito, 60, pushed past the shadow of a famous father, former Gov. Arch A. Moore, to move from the state House of Delegates to the U.S. House and lead an ideological shift in partisan voting in West Virginia.

Democratic registration remains 2-to-1 in the state, but Bill Clinton was the last Democrat to win the presidential race here in 1996 — by a solid 15 percent. Four years later, George W. Bush won by nearly 7 percentage points, and subsequent GOP nominees won with increasing margins.

Now under President Obama, “folks have started saying, ‘Hey, wait a minute, I am losing my job' or ‘My health care (insurance cost) is going up,' ” Capito said. “Our voters here now are doing what you want them to do — you want them to cross over and vote for the right person. Tennant said that even as a Democrat, she would fight Obama's clean air anti-coal policy and [click here for rest]

Tuesday  25 March  2014 / Hour 3, Block C: Conrad Black, in re: Making Canada matter in the world “We’ve got a diaspora-driven foreign policy,” Christopher Westdal, former Canadian ambassador to both Ukraine and Russia, told The Globe and Mail last month. “It might work at the polls, but it doesn’t do much good in the world.” Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister has openly mocked Barack Obama after the U.S. President announced the toughest Western sanctions against Russia since the Cold War.

After Crimea’s declaration of independence Monday from Ukraine, Washington and the European Union retaliated with asset freezes and travel bans and Obama vowing to “increase the cost” if the Kremlin does not back down. Ukraine’s turmoil has become Europe’s most severe security crisis in years and tensions have been high since Russian troops seized control of Crimea, a strategic Black Sea peninsula that has now decided to merge with Russia. Russian troops are also massed near the border with Russian-speaking eastern Ukraine.

The word “diaspora,” of course, refers to our large Ukrainian-Canadian population. And a similar argument has been trotted out by critics to impugn Stephen Harper’s foreign policy with respect to Israel, which is alleged to be a ploy for attracting Jewish votes. The Prime Minister and Foreign Minister John Baird’s strenuous support of Israel, and now Ukraine, are alleged to have demolished Canada’s long-pursued status as a moderate, median country in international organizations in Middle Eastern issues. Canada is now, with the Czechs, practically the only country unambiguously in Israel’s corner. In Ukraine, the claim cannot be made that . . .[more]

Tuesday  25 March  2014 / Hour 3, Block D:  Robert Zimmerman, behindtheblack.com, in re: The competition heats up: DARPA has chosen Boeing to build a test design of an air-launched satellite launcher.  This engineering research is in parallel with the airborne launcher research of Scaled Composites (on SpaceShipTwo) and Stratolauncher. When you add SpaceX’s effort to make its first stage reusable, you get a real sense where the future of rocket design is heading: rockets in which the first stage is entirely reusable, returning safely to Earth either by a horizontal or vertical landing. The contamination that has delayed SpaceX’s next Dragon cargo mission to ISS was caused by oil from a sewing machine. The machine sewed the cloth blankets that protect payloads in Dragon’s unpressurized trunk section.

The competition heats up: On Saturday Arianespace’s Ariane 5 rocket has successfully launched two commercial satellites, its 59th straight successful launch.

Failure to launch? A reporter takes a close look at Virgin Galactic and Spaceport America in New Mexico and comes away very skeptical.

The view might be pessimistic, but it's important to keep an open mind. Richard Branson’s effort, as sincere as I think it is, might not succeed.

Hour Four

Tuesday  25 March  2014 / Hour 4, Block A: The Birth of the West: Rome, Germany, France, and the Creation of Europe in the Tenth Century by Paul Collins, Part 3 (1 of 4)

Tuesday  25 March  2014 / Hour 4, Block B: The Birth of the West: Rome, Germany, France, and the Creation of Europe in the Tenth Century by Paul Collins, Part 3 (2 of 4)

Tuesday  25 March  2014 / Hour 4, Block C: The Birth of the West: Rome, Germany, France, and the Creation of Europe in the Tenth Century by Paul Collins, Part 3 (3 of 4)

Tuesday  25 March  2014 / Hour 4, Block D: The Birth of the West: Rome, Germany, France, and the Creation of Europe in the Tenth Century by Paul Collins, Part 3 (4 of 4)

..  ..  ..

Music

Hour 1:  The Hunted. Daredevil. Cowboys & Aliens. 

Hour 2:  Crimson Tide. World War Z.

Hour 3:  Terminator: Salvation. Mark Twain. Napoleon: Total War. Pacific Rim. 

Hour 4:  Centurion. 

..  ..  ..