Artist's drawing, left: Neville Chamberlain circa 1938, in "peace for our time."
Arthur Neville Chamberlain, FRS (18 March 1869 – 9 November 1940) was a British Conservative politician who served as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom from May 1937 to May 1940. Chamberlain is best known for his appeasement foreign policy, and in particular for his signing of the Munich Agreement in 1938, conceding the German-speaking Sudetenland region of  Czechoslovakia to Germany. However, when Adolf Hitler later invaded Poland, the UK declared war on Germany on 3 September 1939, and Chamberlain led Britain through the first eight months of World War II.
During Chamberlain's 1935, his opponent castigated him: [the] deputy Labour leader . . .  attacked Chamberlain for spending money on rearmament stating that the rearmament policy was "the merest scaremongering; disgraceful in a statesman of Mr. Chamberlain's responsible position, to suggest that more millions of money needed to be spent on armaments"
From May 1937: Chamberlain sought to conciliate Germany and make the Nazi state a partner in a stable Europe. He believed Germany could be satisfied by the restoration of some of her colonies, and during the Rhineland crisis of March 1936 he had stated that "if we were in sight of an all-round settlement the British government ought to consider the question [of restoration of colonies]".
The new Prime Minister's attempts to secure such a settlement were frustrated because Germany was in no hurry to talk to Britain. Foreign Minister Konstantin von Neurath was supposed to visit Britain in July 1937 but cancelled his visit. Lord Halifax, the Lord President of the Council, visited Germany privately in November and met with Hitler and other German officials. Both Chamberlain and the British Ambassador to Germany, Nevile Henderson, pronounced the visit a success. Foreign Office officials complained that the Halifax visit made it appear Britain was too eager for talks, and Foreign Secretary Eden felt that he had been bypassed.
As a game, substitute "Iran" for "Germany"; "Jarrett" for "Henderson"; "Khamenei" for Schicklgruber.
                       “I believe it is peace for our time . . . peace with honour.” —Neville Chamberlain
 
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Co-hosts: Stephen Moore, Heritage Foundation chief economist. Larry Kudlow, CNBC senior advisor; & Cumulus Media radio
 
Hour One
Tuesday  27 October 2015 / Hour 1, Block A: John H. Cochrane , Hoover, via Grumpy Economist; in re: Republicans keep promising to get spending under control, then get to Washington and forget all about it.  "The right corporate tax rate is zero."   Corporations never pay a cent in taxes – rather, whatever they pay to the government has been extracted as higher pries, or the like: which duns poor people at least as much as rich people.  The advantage of zero: why to corps go to DC to get boondoggles, With no corporate tax, no more reason to go to Washington.  Can get rid of a lot of stuff that annoys populists as much as free-marketeers.  This Administration [has  a deaf ear] to this matter.  U.S. Companies Warn of Slowing Economy Quarterly profits and sales from big American companies are poised to fall for the first time since the recession, as some industrial firms warn of a pullback in spending.   
 
Tuesday  27 October 2015 / Hour 1, Block B:   John H. Cochrane , Hoover, via Grumpy Economist; in re: In hearing tomorrow night's debate, listen for discussion concerning growth. GOP is seen as the bail-out party; need to expunge that permanently. GOP always wants ONE BIG program to solve everything, won't work. Dodd-Frank enshrines Too Big to Fail. Need large tax reform entitlement reform. Immigration. Blocking immigration is anti-growth and a big distraction – we talk of the little stuff while Rome burns. 
Economic Growth. An essay. It's an overview of what a growth-oriented policy program might look like. Regulation, finance, health, energy and environment, taxes, debt social security and medicare, social programs, labor law, immigration, education, and more. There is a more permanent version here and pdf version here.
Tuesday  27 October 2015 / Hour 1, Block C: Jerry Hendrix, senior Fellow, & Defense Strategies &Assessments Program dir, Center for a New American Security; in re: USS Lassen, an Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer (one of the strongest warships in existence)  that sailed within the 12-mi limit of the Great Wall of Sand, the bogus islands constructed by China in order to claim an enormous swath of South China Sea owned by the whole planet and between Vietnam and Philippines.  The US Navy has done for decades to keep freedom of navigation on the high seas, free for all nations.  Note that both Vietnam and Philippines built fake islands.. theP8 is the newest surveillance aircraft, replacing the P3. Was to alert the Lassen of any other traffic, and to keep film on any untoward activities by hostile powers. Continued for 18 hours. Was trailed by two Chinese vessels.  China's vice-foreign minister summoned US amb to protest. PLA antiaircraft artillery launched live fire at night, and in Hong Kong held joint military activities – "Starworks in the sky."  Kabuki for the Chinese audience – they've lost face Were sure that the US would turn chicken.  US shrugs and moves on. We'll continue to do what a superpower must to do keep intl law functioning, which we've worked 70 years to establish and China is trying to undo.  Our B52s and B1s are ageing – 52s are 60 years old, B1s from under carter, need 80 to 100 new bombers to strike long-distance from land bases; $500 mil per plane, will have he striking power to make the USAF relevant  - in the Pacific and, frankly, in the Arctic. 
Mission accomplished, and now the Chinese make threats:  U.S. warship sails within 12 miles of Chinese-built island.  The U.S. Navy destroyer’s approach to the artificial island in the South China Sea was a direct challenge to China’s territorial claims.    U.S. Warship Escalates Island Dispute with China  A U.S. navy patrol off China’s artificial islands in the South China Sea was the strongest challenge yet to President Xi Jinping’s ambitions to enforce Chinese territorial claims—and to alter Asia’s geopolitical status quo. /  U.S. warship sails within 12 miles of Chinese-built island   The U.S. Navy destroyer’s approach to the artificial island in the South China Sea was a direct challenge to China’s territorial claims.
https://twitter.com/PDChina/status/659061553807937537 ; China sent two Destroyers to Warn U.S. Warship in South China Sea ; http://en.people.cn/n/2015/1027/c90000-8967676.html …  ; https://twitter.com/PDChina/status/659005512554532864 ; https://twitter.com/PDChina/status/658985861665693696
Tuesday  27 October 2015 / Hour 1, Block D:  Carl Zimmer, NYT, in re:  four thousand, five hundred yeas ago, a person in what's now southern Ethiopia, in a  cave: now we have tools – DNA – to learn where we came from. The man called "Motin" has DNA. In cold, dry places we can reconstruct hundreds of thousands of years.  Motin's head was on a stone like a pillow and his hands were folded.  It's the bone around the inner ear that's best for testing these millennia later.  His DNA: looks at a person's genome and see traits and distinctive DNA stretches found only in persons in certain regions. "Backflow" – the notion that humans evolved in East Africa about 200,000 years go, then expanded across all of Africa, the small groups moved out of Africa and gave rise to everybody else.  Then some people came back into Africa and commingled.  Ergo, if Motin lived before the backflow, he wouldn't have any of the outside-returned genes.  Almost everyone in Africa today has maybe 8% of Middle Eastern genes – backflow.   http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/09/science/scientists-sequence-first-ancient-human-genome-from-africa.html?smid=tw-nytimesscience&smtyp=cur
 
Hour Two
Tuesday  27 October 2015 / Hour 2, Block A:  Victor Davis Hanson, Hoover, via Works and Days, in re: Is Trump Our Napoleon? What are Trump’s politics? Like Napoleon’s, no one quite knows, beyond an equally burning desire to make his nation “great again.” Demagoguery – in the Eighteenth and Nineteenth Centuries – Napoleon Bonaparte, first Consul then Emperor of most of Europe.  Monsieur Bonaparte and Donald Trump: promised French that he'd make France great again, that France was getting "taken" by mercantilism, the British; that he'd transcend politics, he was apolitical, would make the nation great again – the key word is "again," as he hearkens back to an age we sort of think we knew of – by his own acumen and ability from military success. He defined greatness in architecture, building, bringing people together, no one knew precisely what he meant and are still fighting over meanings to this day. His famous phrase was, "Promise everything, do nothing."  Much attention to personal dress and pomp and ceremony; to extreme detail; paranoia; Napoleon's letters are comparable to Trump's tweets; Napoleon wrote thousands of letters.   He put N's everywhere; so does Trump put his name on everything.  Like Fourth Century Athens, or the Weimar Republic.
Bonaparte in 1799: Bonaparte did not want Lafayette (finally out of an Austrian prison) to hang around in Paris, attracting his old time admirers.  So Lafayette took into account Bonaparte's temperament and  moved 35 miles south to his wife's estate La Grange and kept his head down for the next 15 years.  Only one super-heroic revolutionary patriot allowed in politics at a time!
Also on Churchill/Obama and appeasement: There's freshly the topic of the US surrender to Russia/Iran in the Mediterranean Basin (Syria), the Gulf Basin (Iraq), and the Caspian Sea Basin (firing missiles over Iran and Iraq to strike Syria).  Also the surrender to Russia in the Black Sea Basin (Ukraine) and the Baltic Sea Basin (NATO).
Now the even fresher possibility that Obama can surrender to China in the South China Sea, after making a ceremonial Freedom of Navigation operation near the Spratlys.
Tuesday  27 October 2015 / Hour 2, Block B: Victor Davis Hanson, Hoover, via Works and Days, in re: Imagine that Churchill, not Chamberlain, is PM after the Anschluss and before Munich:  why it's not so bad that Hitler is a bully and a brute, that Germany is in the hands of monsters and takes Czechoslovakia; were he to use Obama arguments, he'd say, "If we see Panzers moving around, that'd be a red line and a game-changer."  "His taking over France makes no sense and isn't real leadership; meanwhile, I'm involved in health matters and the environment. The international community denounces Hitler; we'll censor him, have embargos, sanctions."  Churchill in 1940 was the only sane voice, was called a war-monger by all his critics who said exactly what Obama's people are saying today of those who oppose Obama.  It's pretty scary.  After Hitler took over Poland . . .    People said. "Let's cut a deal with Hitler."  Hitler on Radio Berlin kept saying, "I have no desire to move against Britain; give me all of Europe and I won't move against you."   Washington now is announcing that it'll put troops somewhere in Mesopotamia; but when that heroic young soldier was killed, the White House said, He wasn't on a fighting mission.  Orwellian language use.
Barack Churchill, 1939  Winston Churchill, well before he became prime minister in May 1940, was busy all through 1939 prompting the British government to prepare for war — and then, as first lord of the Admiralty, helping to direct it once it broke out. But what if Churchill had been Barack Obama? What would Britain’s foremost opponent of appeasement have been like? [How about,]
"Certainly we do not need a disproportionate response to Herr Hitler that initiates a cycle of violence on both sides. We need to tamp down the rhetoric.”   –Pres Obama's approach
Winston Churchill, well before he became prime minister in May 1940, was busy all through 1939 prompting the British government to prepare for war — and then, as first lord of the Admiralty, helping to direct it once it broke out. But what if Churchill had been Barack Obama? What would Britain’s foremost opponent of appeasement have been like?
The Munich Agreement  Obama-Churchill might have said something like the following in regard to the 1938 Munich Agreement.
“We live in a complex world and at a challenging time. And none of these challenges lends itself to quick or easy solutions, but all of them require British leadership. If we stay patient and determined, then we will, in fact, meet these challenges. The Munich Agreement is a comprehensive governmental agreement.  It is the first that actually constrains Nazi Germany from further aggression, and one whose provisions are transparent and enforceable. It is a sober and judicious way to preclude war and to bring Germany back into the family of nations and to become a credible regional power, while allowing the German people to express their legitimate aspirations.”
“Obviously, the last twenty years of ostracizing Germany has not worked. So it’s time for some creative, reset diplomacy, and a reengagement to get out of the rut of the last two decades.  I don’t believe, as did former British officials, in snubbing supposed enemies, but rather in engaging and talking with them. Lots of you in the American newspaper business keep expecting us, like some American baseball team, to hit home runs. Well, we’re perfectly happy to hit singles and doubles as this agreement.”
“Finally, the relations between Germany and Western Europe include centuries of co-existence and cooperation, but also a long history of conflict and religious wars. More recently, tension has been fed by colonialism that denied rights and opportunities to many Germans, and a shaky peace in which German-speaking majorities were too often treated as proxies without regard to their own aspirations. Moreover, the sweeping change brought by modernity led many Germans to view the West as hostile to the traditions of German culture. Violent extremists have exploited these tensions in a small but potent minority of Germans. The attacks of 1939 and the continued efforts of these extremists to engage in violence against civilians have led some in my country to view Germany as inevitably hostile not only to Britain and Western countries, but also to human rights. This has bred more fear and mistrust. So long as our relations are defined by our differences, we will empower those who sow hatred rather than peace, and who promote conflict rather than the cooperation that can help all of our people achieve justice and prosperity. This cycle of suspicion and discord must end.”
“How can we in good conscience justify war before we’ve tested a diplomatic agreement that achieves our objectives?”
 
Tuesday  27 October 2015 / Hour 2, Block C:  John A Catsimatidis, host of Cats Roundtable Radio, in re: U.S. Companies Warn of Slowing Economy Quarterly profits and sales from big American companies are poised to fall  . . . The world economy is flying on three engines:  can stay aloft, but cannot gain altitude: stuck at %, 2-1/2% growth, The old adage was, "Don't fight the Fed." The new saying is, "Don't fight the G7."  China dropped rates again the other day, Everyone is trying to keep the economy sort of OK. In the US, real estate and stock mkt are  adequate, but does the mkt belong at 18,000? not really.  The govt will keep low interest rates – if they raised, they'd have big problem in t he real estate industry, Caterpillar report.  Today's 5.1%  unemployment has been recalculated; the real number is in the low double-digits.  For one thing, lifelong teachers don't want to be busboys.  If it goes to two engines,, it goes down.  Were I US president, the first thing I'd do is have the $3 trillion overseas, brought back, charge a 10% corporate tax rate to repatriate the funds. I'd also create incentives to spend money – investment tax credits: spend the money and we'll give you a tax credit for spending it (rather than routing the money to dividends).  . . . We're stumbling in new grounds. Imagine that rates were raises=d a quarter-point: wouldn't accomplish anything.  And having oil going down from $100 to $50 might be a governmental effort, Saudis had to sell $80 billion in stocks to cover losses at $50 bil because while they can extract oil cheaply, they've organized their economy around $100 Bbl.
U.S. Companies Warn of Slowing Economy Quarterly profits and sales from big American companies are poised to fall for the first time since the recession, as some industrial firms warn of a pullback in spending.   
Tuesday  27 October 2015 / Hour 2, Block D: Robert Zimmerman, behind the black, in re: Enceladus, moon of Saturn, has odd fractures.  "Tiger stripes" – looks like water emerging from the interior, possibly from an interior liquid ocean. Cassini running into its final years, doing last few fly-bys of the moons.  A third fly-by in December. Mars: canals.  Flows north into the giant plains and canyons.  One crater looks uplifted, where sediment filled it and the rim [went away]. "A Cassini mosaic of degraded craters, fractures, and disrupted terrain in Enceladus's north polar region. The two prominent craters above the middle terminator . . ."
Hour Three
Tuesday  27 October 2015 / Hour 3, Block A:   Salena Zito, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, and Dr  Lara M Brown, George Washington University, in re: http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/lara-brown/2015/10/22/the-us-has-survived-worse-periods-of-partisanship-and-dysfunction
Tuesday  27 October 2015 / Hour 3, Block B: Salena Zito, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, and Dr  Lara M Brown, George Washington University, in re:   “Divisiveness for the sake of divisiveness makes governing, let alone leading, impossible. People are weary of the spectacle, the hate, the declaration that if you aren't on their side then you're the enemy.”
AMSTERDAM, Ohio-- Outside the white clapboard cottage with red-trimmed shutters and a 1930s Extron glass gas pump, the sign still reads “Marsha's Diner.”  Inside, “Grammy's Kitchen” bustled on a Sunday afternoon in October.  Locals filled the neatly numbered wooden tables as the diner's only waitress, Sara Prokopakis, waited on each, calling patrons by name and holding the door for a World War II veteran named Frank because the slow, cruel crawl of time has erased his agility. 
In a village of just over 500 people, Rich Law, 42, knew he took a risk when he bought the diner in March; the former owner warned him she was having a hard time “making a go of it.” But his construction business that once employed 35 people was dying, and he felt it was time for a change.  Law, sitting at a table by the kitchen with his wife, Layce, and daughters, Kylie and Kelsie, said his mother ran a restaurant “when I went off to college . . . that's about my only experience with it.” Prokopakis, a striking young woman with long black hair and bright blue . . .  CLICK HERE FOR LINK
Tuesday  27 October 2015 / Hour 3, Block C:   Joe Rago, WSJ, in re: The Decline of ObamaCare   Fewer enrollees and rising loss ratios will force  a rewrite in 2017.  Thousands Who Didn’t File Tax Returns May Lose Health Care Subsidies 
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Tuesday  27 October 2015 / Hour 3, Block D: Joe Rago, WSJ, in re: The Decline of ObamaCare   Fewer enrollees and rising loss ratios will force  a rewrite in 2017.  Thousands Who Didn’t File Tax Returns May Lose Health Care Subsidies 
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Hour Four
 
 
Hour Four
Tuesday  27 October 2015 / Hour 4, Block A: Larry Kudlow, CNBC senior advisor; & Cumulus Media radio; and Bill Whalen, Hoover, in re: Who needs to outperform tomorrow? First, Jeb Bush.  he does have an ambitious tax plan Also Marco Rubio, who has a good tax plan – personal and capital gains. Third, Ben Carson has surged ahead but we don't know much about his campaign. On TV he had trouble with explaining health care. Now about Trump, a businessman who knows stuff. He has a tax plan - I love the 15%  - but will he stay on message, or start acting out and attacking Ben Carson?  Depends somewhat on how the moderators ask questions.  I think he'll have to focus on substance - free trade and eminent domain are problems for him. Key matter must be economic growth. Rubio has a $1.7 trillion child tax credit? Very controversial, big debate within the conservative movement. The others are more traditional: lower rates, get rid of loopholes and deductions.  Obama in 2201 said wittily, "I'll name Bill Clinton as Secretary of Explaining Stuff."  This'll be the last round-up for some – Kasich and Christie, perhaps.  Tomorrow they might even veer off into discussing the G7.  Big intra-GOP tariffs and free trade debate.  Immigration reform: will it help or hurt the economy, wages?  The big issue is middle-class wages.  Hint hint: need 4% economic growth. Why is Rand Paul on the stage – he's a flat-taxer; and some of t he others. 
GOP Debate Prep: today's CBS poll shows Carson and Trump leading; also that 7 in 10 respondents say it's too early to decide.  But the state of the race can change. Seven in 10 Republican primary voters say it's too early to say for sure that their mind is made up about which candidate they'll support. This percentage is about what it was at a similar point in the Republican race four years ago.
Tuesday  27 October 2015 / Hour 4, Block B: Larry Kudlow, CNBC senior advisor; & Cumulus Media radio; and Bill Whalen, Hoover, in re: The "brainiac" debate tomorrow. Carly Fiorina did well, then lost half her polls. She wrote a WSJ op-ed today - but 90% of it was attacks on Obama, only one small graf on rescuing the economy with zero specific.  Her campaign has been based on attacking Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama with a lot of bromides.  And she'll be attacked on HP, and it'll take her three minutes to explain.  Dr Carson is great on family but not much on the economy. Ted Cruz is admired for his intellect but hasn't put himself forward as a policy guy – will do so tomorrow: taxes, regs, Dodd-Frank, EPA. He's got the intellectual ammo. He'd be a problematic nominee for the Republicans.  . . . Watch: Cruz and Rubio oppose the last-minute budget deal of today.  Conservatives are truly upset; where will Bush be on this?  It's an important debate.  On 10 November, the next debate, sponsored by Fox and WSJ.  Take Kasich: he has an economic plan, but does he have an economic message?  And Bush: he has to send a powerful message to his very large donors that he's got fire so they don't jump ship and go to Rubio.   http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2015/10/27/four-things-to-look-for-at-wednesday-nights-republican-debate.html
Tuesday  27 October 2015 / Hour 4, Block C: A Merciless Place: The Fate of Britain's Convicts after the American Revolution, by Emma Christopher (1 of 2)
Tuesday  27 October 2015 / Hour 4, Block D: A Merciless Place: The Fate of Britain's Convicts after the American Revolution, by Emma Christopher (2 of 2)
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Tuesday  27 October 2015 / Hour 4, Block C: A Merciless Place: The Fate of Britain's Convicts after the American Revolution, by Emma Christopher (1 of 2)
Tuesday  27 October 2015 / Hour 4, Block D: A Merciless Place: The Fate of Britain's Convicts after the American Revolution, by Emma Christopher (2 of 2)
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