Photo, above: Main service gantry of the Angara pad in Plesetsk under construction in April 2013. Credit: Russian Ministry of Defense, via Russian Space Web.

JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW

Co-hosts: Gordon Chang, Forbes.com.  Dr. David M. Livingston, The Space Show.

Hour One

Wednesday  16 July  2014 / Hour 1, Block A: Charles Burton, Brock University, in re:  the effects of China's "anti-corruption" drive, which is beginning to paralyze the Chinese government.  State enterprise leaders are hesitant to engage in new initiatives and putting others into abeyance due to fear of getting caught up in the corruption web.  It's hard for officials to hold a wedding as you can't invite people or receive gifts.   Now no official may have a car and private driver except at Ministerial level and above (every small official has one).  The system doesn’t work without corruption and bribes.  reminiscent of Mao: instead of collective leadership, we’re seeing the fifth-generation leader looks very much like the first, since everyone but Xi's family is potentially a target. Could lead to chaos.  Stalin decided to explain the failure of his system as sabotage by "wreckers" - which led to the Terror

XI Jinping is the fifth-generation leader, came to power in a collective clique, now is prosecuting an anti-corruption drive – here, less collective and more big-manism.  He came in as a Leninist; among those values, the ardent desire to serve the state without regard to oneself or one's family – which has comprehensively failed. Across China, people are starting to speak of the resumption of a Cultural Revolution.

Wednesday  16 July  2014 / Hour 1, Block B: Cleo Paskal, Chatham House, in re:  Media failures – Australian Broadcasting (ABC) & HBO.  "Jonah from Tonga" – an ABC 6-part mockumentary  where a 39-yyr-old fat white man acts as a 14-yr-olld Australian of Tongan ancestry who has violent and unpredictable behaviors – and supposed to be funny.

Seems to be establishment-level prejudice against Pacific Islanders. All the traits of African-Americans in minstrelsy. It’s horrifying.  Scheduled to be shown on HBO in ht US. Made by Chris Lilly, who had a good reputation, then showed his hand. Deep racism vs Pacific Islanders has deep geopolitical implications as it drives a wedge between Pacific and West.

A white guy portraying all the worst characteristics of humanity, and now Time Warner thinks it's fine. This isn’t comedy – it’s fear, anger, hatred.  One character, Cool Chris, is also supposed to be Tongan, religious, self-emasculating. 

China moves in: Americans are racist, where as we're all pan-Asian and should stick together. Of course, the reality is that African students in China have a very bad time. The Kingdom of Tonga's constitution pre-dates he Australian constitution; b  ehavior there is nothing like the mockumentary – the stereotype is of badly-behaved white Australian children. Tongans are fighting side by side with the US in Afghanistan.

Photo, below: Angara rocket model, photo by Anatoly Zak

Wednesday  16 July  2014 / Hour 1, Block C:  Anatoly Zak, Russian Space Web, in re:  Russia has to pay Kazakhstan $115 million a year to use Baikonur, whereas can use Angara (RD191 engine) without fees.  Angara 1:  modular vehicle; tested two stages preparatory to the six stages of the heavy version; one stage fell off over Kamchatka.   Swiss knife is great metaphor for the Russian space program.  Angara uses kerosene, not a dangerous propellant, and liquid oxygen: environmentally safe compared to Proton The same RD191 will be on all stages, lower boosters. Will reduce cost and be more reliable.  As soon as they finish with this launch pad in 2015  . . .  See website: Russian Space web for remarkable pix.

Wednesday  16 July  2014 / Hour 1, Block D:  Aaron Back, WSJ Asia, in re: Bad banks set up in 1990s in China to buy of nonperforming loans to protect the State-run economy.  Investors now can make money Hua Rong is now selling bonds at a fair rate; owned by the natl govt. In '90s, bought at face value; now they’re buying at <face value, maybe 30%, so can sell for a profit.  If you could get 10% over Treasurys, OK. but this is 2% over Treasurys. High risk.  "Inconceivable that the central govt could let these fail."

Hour Two

Wednesday  16 July  2014 / Hour 2, Block A: Alan Tonelson, independent economic policy analyst who blogs at RealityChek, in re: an iPhone made in China is in fact an iPhone made in the US?  The US govt wants to redefine "export" to include goods made offshore by US firms is called domestically-made. iPhone made in China by Foxconn under this new rule proposition is now to be called American-made. Obama Adm aware that its claims that US mfrg is undergoing  renaissance are now seen as false. So it wants to change the story and make the US look more competitive in the media.  Meanwhile China holds increasing amounts of US imports.  This Adm understands that contemporary mfrg incorporates a big chunk of R&D, and that innovation rests from continuous interaction between producers and the science guys.  So call it all US-made and make this Adm look good. Commingling trade and GDP with US ______. Renders export-import numbers as meaningless.  In fact we need much better and  more detailed data on who mfrs what where, and how hat changes over time. Today the US govt lets companies keep this secret.   

Wednesday  16 July  2014 / Hour 2, Block B: Rick Fisher, International Assessment and Strategy Center, in re:  rapid expansion of the Chinese air force, which appears faster than the Pentagon has revealed. High-performance aircraft for the PLA China's People Liberation Army).  Total of 1562 aircraft in the next few years. In 2014, has 946 modern aircraft; will have1562 by 2020.  Will fly over Far East or India. Allows China to consider a major operation over Taiwan while preventing Indians, Japanese and Americans from getting involved. IUS would have to wrest air superiority from China. US DOD estimate 300 fewer than I do; its report was from 2013, whereas my info from an Asian govt is 2014. Chengdu J20 will number 24 by 2020 (Stealth): for penetrating US carrier asset base. US Navy would put up a screen that the J20 is designed to penetrate – a real threat to our naval carrier test groups.  Russia's new arms sales to Chin: a central part of the the oil & gas deal is to open a new phase of Russian-Chinese tech cooperation. A 400-mi range . . .  soon to come: 24 Su-35 fighters, fourth generation; real prize for China will be the engines, which may power the J20..  Large, wide-body twin-aisle aircraft to break the Boeing-Airbus duopoly; China will use for military Also a space alliance between Russia & China – China my ay be first to occupy the Moon and reach Mars.  A Tupolev: a new subsonic bomber, a flying wing like our Spirit bomber.  The A 20 will also be a flying wing bomber that the Russians are probably helping China develop. The only use for a flying wing is attack. 

Jane's Defence Weekly: China to have 1,500 fourth-gen fighters by 2020, according to Asian government estimates  An Asian government source has disclosed to IHS Jane's estimates of China's future combat aircraft fleet size and composition that are larger - and more specific - than those offered in the annual China Military Power reports published by the US Department of Defense.

The latest Pentagon report issued on 5 June 2014 sounded an alarm about China air combat forces, saying the People's Liberation Army Air Force "is pursuing modernisation on a scale unprecedented in its history and is rapidly closing the gap with Western air forces across a broad spectrum of capabilities including aircraft, command and control, jammers, electronic warfare, and datalinks".

Reporting on developments for 2013, the Pentagon noted that currently out of 1,900 Chinese combat aircraft, 600 are 'modern', although China still operates "a large number of second- and third-generation fighters". The report said this would change significantly in the next several years as it China becomes "a majority fourth-generation force".

The Asian government estimates differ slightly from the Pentagon's figures, but largely confirm its broader trends. More helpfully, the Asian source breaks down growth estimates by specific aircraft types.

For 2014 the source notes China has 946 modern combat aircraft, more than 300 over the US estimate for 2013, and by 2020 this number could grow to 1,562 modern combat aircraft.

Estimated growth in the number of advanced Chinese combat aircraft 2014-20
Type of combat aircraft	2014	2020
Sukhoi Su-30	96	96
Sukhoi Su-27	70	28
Sukhoi Su-35		24
Shenyang J-11A/B	230	390
Shenyang J-16		100
Chengdu J-10	220	400
Chengdu J-20		24
Xian JH-7/7A	200	320
Xian H-6	130	180
Totals	946	1,562
Source: Asian government figures

The Asian source notes that older Russian-produced Sukhoi Su-27SK fighters may decline from about 70 in 2014 to 28 in 2020, or about one regiment. However, China will have purchased 24 more advanced Su-35 fighters by 2020.

This source projects that J-11A/B fighters, Sukhoi facsimiles produced by the Shenyang Aircraft Corporation, could increase from 230 to 390 by 2020, or at an annual rate of 26-27 over six years. Some Chinese sources assert that J-11B production is phasing out in favour of J-15 naval fighters and new J-16 twin-seat dedicated attackers. The increase in single-seat J-11s may be accounted for by a more advanced J-11D mentioned by some Chinese sources.

However, the J-16 may be scheduled to become an important type, with 100 built by 2020. According to the Asian source, Chengdu Aircraft Corporation (CAC) J-10 numbers are projected to increase by 180 fighters to 400 by 2020, or at a rate of 30 per year. Production is currently transitioning from the J-10A to the active electronically scanned array radar-equipped J-10B. This source also projects that 24 fifth-generation CAC J-20 fighters will be built by 2020.

Xian Aircraft Corporation JH-7 strike fighters are estimated to only increase by 120 to 320 by 2020, or by about 20 per year. A new JH-7B that emerged in December 2013 shows slight external differences, but may have a more powerful Qinling turbofan engine and better electronics.

However, during this period the number of Xian H-6 bombers may increase from 130 to 180, or about 8 per year. This may point to continued production of the H-6K variant with more powerful turbofan engines and a redesigned radar-equipped nose section. This source also notes that a follow-on H-20 strategic bomber may emerge by 2025. Interestingly, Russian officials project that a Tupolev flying wing bomber could emerge by 2019 and US Air Force officials project their next generation LRS-B strategic bomber could enter service by 2026.

Wednesday  16 July  2014 / Hour 2, Block C:  Abheek Bhattacharya, Heard on the Street WSJ in Hong Kong, in re: Mr Modi's budget late last week was quite underwhelming: he intends to increase expenditure by 4.5% of GDP, then 3.6% next year and 3% the following – but taxes not increasing and corruption not diminished; growth is anemic so no new revenues.  . . . Big problem: rule of law on the tax code. Last govt retroactively taxed people – could go back to 2005 and take money. Horrid. Must be scrapped!  Modi is a good decision-maker; ends paralysis of approvals. An actual reform that may occur is his allowing states to slowly clean  things up. If one state changes how workers are hired and fired it'll attract mfrg, so other states will have to catch up.  Partial privatization, where the state owns not 100% but 7-0%; now Modi will reduce it to maybe 51%, keeping investors at bay. Modi is more effective and practical, but not committed to capitalism, per se.

Wednesday  16 July  2014 / Hour 2, Block D:  Joseph Sternberg, WSJ Asia editorial board, in re: recall 6 years ago when hundreds of thousands of Chinese in fact were seriously sickened or died from chemicals in milk but Beijing hasn’t cleaned it up with rule of law or corporate accountability for dairies.   Xi Jinping's "reforms" have done nothing but consolidate all the companies and render them ever more power to fend off regulators.   . . . There was at that time a run on infant food from Hong Kong, which Beijing has now forbidden.  Meanwhile, Beijng has done deep investigations of foreign companies to disable them while Chinese firms are selling toxic goods.  China's Beige Book Intl (surveyed 2,200 companies across China): slowdown in mining, et al., not reflected in natl GDP number.  "This means that Beijing just made it up." Plenty of ways to manipulate the GDP number: can expand credit rapidly to give the appearance, but if it doesn’t finance economically productive activity all it'll finance is excessive expansion.  Companies currently don’t want to borrow.  Will run out of stream on credit expansion. 

Hour Three

Wednesday  16 July  2014 / Hour 3, Block A: Monica Crowley, Washington Times and Fox, in re: 7 Republicans Who Disagree with Sarah Palin on Impeaching Obama  Sarah Palin penned an op-ed last week calling for the impeachmentof President Obama. On Breitbart.com, the former Republican vice . . .    GOP rep: Impeachment 'debatable'   Cheney: Any attempt to impeach Obama would be distraction  Boehner's 'political stunt' will lead to Obama's impeachment Legally, as Laurence Tribe told me last week, “There is no there there” on the Boehner lawsuit. This morning, the Harvard constitutional law . . .   Boehner's Lawsuit Against Obama Backfires as Democrats Trounce. . . Majority of Americans Think John Boehner's Lawsuit Is a Pointless ...

Wednesday  16 July  2014 / Hour 3, Block B: Bret Stephens, WSJ GLOBAL VIEW, in re:  The Palestinian Blessing  By their behavior in the current conflict, Israel's enemies deliver an unwitting favor.   . . . . Years of difference between Palestinian Authority and the State of Israel . The cynicism of Abbas as captured b y his decision to write a letter of fawning congratulations to Bashar al Assad for his reelection.  Recall that he's launched chemical attacks vs Palestinians in Syria.  Abbas fawns over the killer of his compatriots. Duplicity and cynicism exposed.  Presbyterians voted narrowly  for BDS, a social0media mode of discrimination against Israel.  Against the one Middle Eastern state where Christians are entirely fee to practice their religion.  . . .

Wednesday  16 July  2014 / Hour 3, Block C:  Aaron Klein, AaronKleinOnline, in re:  Day Ten of Operation Protective Edge.   IDF releases graphic of aid delivered to Gaza  The IDF spokesperson’s office tries to focus attention on the supplies Israel is sending through the Kerem Shalom crossing to the Gaza Strip. It tweeted out an infographic Thursday morning with some of the statistics, including 3 tons of medical supplies and 65 trucks of food and general supplies.   Hamas reaches out to Qatar and Turkey for mediation  Insulted by Egyptian ceasefire proposal, Islamist group would reportedly like to see its allies enter the fray

Wednesday  16 July  2014 / Hour 3, Block D: Aaron Klein, KleinOnline (2 of 2)

Hour Four

Wednesday  16 July  2014 / Hour 4, Block A: John Tamny, Real Clear Markets, in re: Neither the Fed nor the federal government can create credit, but the Fed's comical attempts to set the short rate amount to it attempting to plan who gets to access the economy's always limited resources.  The result is less credit, a greatly weakened banking system, and slower economic growth as the centrally planned 20th century reveals vividly. 

Imagining a World without the Federal Reserve "Rate Talk Heats Up within the Fed." "A debate is intensifying among the Federal Reserve's regional bank presidents about whether [or not] to push interest rates up from near zero sooner than planned . . .

Wednesday  16 July  2014 / Hour 4, Block B: Robert Zimmerman, behindtheblack.com, in re:  India’s space program gets a huge budget boost The competition heats up: The new budget of India’s new conservative government under Narendra Modi has given its space program a 50 percent increase. It appears that there were increases across the board, including a gigantic increase for their GSLV rocket as well as their manned program. It also appears that Modi is following in the path of George Bush, at least when it comes to space. He might be a conservative, pro private enterprise and anti-big government, but his approach to building a space industry is decidedly Soviet in style, pumping funds into government agencies so that they can build the rockets and spacecraft. For the moment at least, private companies will be the servants to India’s government space program, not the masters. In the U.S. and Russia this approach worked for the first generation of rockets and spacecraft, but then ended up a lead weight for later generations. I suspect we shall see the same history play out in India.

Sixty science papers retracted  The uncertainty of peer review: An internal investigation has caused the retraction of sixty peer-reviewed scientific papers that were published by a single journal, the Journal of Vibration and Control (JVC).  The network of JVC papers that emerged was incestuous, with the same small group of authors reviewing each other’s work and appearing together as co-authors. By the end of the year, the investigators had a list of 130 e-mail addresses associated with 60 papers, with one scientist as co-author on all of them: Chen-Yuan Chen of NPUE, who goes by “Peter.” When SAGE sent an e-mail to all 130 e-mail addresses requesting that the authors confirm their identity, none responded. “The authors were contacted again by SAGE in May 2014 to inform them that their papers would be retracted in the July 2014 issue,” says Sherman, but again none responded. According to SAGE’s official statement, Chen resigned from NPUE in February. Neither Chen nor officials at NPUE responded to e-mails from ScienceInsider

How was it possible for a scientist to become the sole reviewer on dozens of his own papers? The answer appears to be that Chen was allowed to nominate his own reviewers, who were not vetted by JVC.  Chen apparently created fake gmail accounts for both real and non-existing scientists and then chose these scientists both as his co-authors as well as his peer-reviewers.

Wednesday  16 July  2014 / Hour 4, Block C: Richard A Epstein, Hoover Institution, Chicago Law (1 of 2), in re: Unfortunately, many commentators have interpreted the court’s decision as the latest example of “the war against women.” Hillary Clinton claims that Hobby Lobby lets “the boss” impose its will on women.  Emily’s list says that we should “Stand with Hillary. . . if you agree that women should be able to make their own health decisions.”  Similarly, Senator Elizabeth Warren dismisses Hobby Lobby’s religious beliefs as some “vague moral objection.” A more accurate description is that Hobby Lobby resisted the state’s effort to “impose” its views of contraception on it. But in these objections, religious freedom never gets mentioned…

Wednesday  16 July  2014 / Hour 4, Block D: Richard A Epstein, Hoover Institution, Chicago Law (2 of 2)