Wednesday 17 September 2014
Photo, above: Scottish independence rally in advance of Thursday's vote.
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Hour One
Wednesday 17 September 2014 / Hour 1, Block A: Arthur Waldron, Lauder Professor of International Relations at the University of Pennsylvania, in re: ‘Tiger’ Zhou Yongkang: Did China’s former security chief murder his first wife? Zhou Yongkang, once powerful, has been deposed, but has powerful friends. He was grand overseer of China's huge security empire; many will have owed their rise to him and some will owe him disaster. He's starting to investigate not just the financial irregularities, which pertain to all the rich Chinese – whose only way of assembling large blocks of cash has been by stealing from the state, and which deed has enormously upset the populace, who see it clearly – but is aiming to investigate the death of Zhou's first wife. Umm - how come you just discovered this fourteen years later? Is there a statute of imitations? In summary: looks as though they'll have either to reform the entire party – or it won’t be able to keep functioning.
Wednesday 17 September 2014 / Hour 1, Block B: Rick Fisher, senior fellow at the International Assessment and Strategy Center, in re: Australians and Japanese on a slowly-accelerating alliance, hitherto with the US in between; but as Japan has been reaching out to India, now it approaches Australia, esp now that it’s relaxed its self-imposed restrictions on weapons sales. Taiwan wants to buy submarines, which the US refuses to supply. Is Japan the next arsenal of democracy? In the Philippines, yes – it’s almost a vacuum, and dangerous because of China's feints. I once thought that they'd sell an older design to a US firm to modify and sell to Taiwan, but if China actually kills a Japanese sailor, Japan might move more strongly. [Go to podcast for enumeration of weaponry in PLA: pls see podcast at johnbatchelorshow.com] Submarines have an appeal just short of that of a nuclear weapon. Falklands.
Wednesday 17 September 2014 / Hour 1, Block C: Anatoly Zak, RussianSpaceWeb.com & author, Russians in Space, in re: The book is now being reprinted; photo of a happy Russian mutt in a space suit. Recall November 1967 when Laika was sent into space – in a one-way trip. Forever symbolizes the sacrifice by animals for space exploration. In 1990s, when the Russian space program was in trouble financially, it sold off a lot of material. Also used to have an animal lab – Inst of medical and Biological Problems of Space Flight has an extensive animal program. Just returned: gekkos – not very successful . . . Return of Soyuz TLM: picture-perfect landing, touchdown n vertical position. No problem shipping RD180L Russians earn hard cash, which is welcome, and also the US problem is a bit exaggerated – other engines with similar capabilities. Memorabilia of space flight. [more; pls see podcast at johnbatchelorshow.com]
Wednesday 17 September 2014 / Hour 1, Block D: Aaron Back, Heard on the Street, WSJ Hong Kong; in re: Alibaba has about 80% of the Chinese market and is about to launch the world's largest IPO. How lovable. China's traditional retail mkt not half as well dvpd as in US, so e-commerce may exceed retail in China in a few years. Eighty per cent means you're topped out. Macroeconomic risks in China but ecommerce is still a growth area. Competition is a risk, agree. JD.com e.g. Jack Ma's comments a few days ago about Europe. Trying to expand into video, maps, 50% of a soccer club. Management no very disciplined. What'll their advantage be in the US? in Europe? Baidu and Sino haven’t evinced any bad issues; those mostly among smaller firms. Note Jack Ma's partnership structure - foreigners have not much play. In theory we'd like it if one shareholder had one vote – but FB, Google, others, all allow mgt to maintain control. Range of 66, now at 68. Still cheaper on a per-share basis than Baidu or TenCent. TenCent is more like FB or twitter; the two are struggling. TenCent has a stake n JD; the two Internet giants fight. Profit margins on a downward trend for both as they compete.
Hour Two
Wednesday 17 September 2014 / Hour 2, Block A: Charles Burton, Brock University, in re: Nat followers – Washington, championship season. ISIS. Scotland about to vote on breaking up the UK. Poroshenko and Ukraine. Game of Thrones in Beijing: Zhou Yongkang about to face divestment of assets and jail term – very unusual. He has an enormous network of followers loyal to him as he was head of the entire Chinese security apparatus for a long time. It was thought that Xi Jinping's [vendetta] would flicker out after a while, but it hasn’t. So there's a lot of fightback – the fear is that the campaign to clean up could spread beyond Zhou and Bo to the Shanghai faction. Note 2012 Vladivostok Treaty between Russia and China. Steven Harper has been looking for ways to mend disputes with China – which has been blatantly guilty of hacking and massive IP theft; detaining a Canadian couple ostensibly for spying, There's a split within Canada abut what aspects of our relations with China are important: expanding economic relations with China (supported by major Canadian companies, such as Bombardier and the like, that have large contracts with China), and the social conservatives, who are concerned about Chinese investment in Canada having political implications, as well as human rights concerns. This treaty was a good idea at time: to level the trade playing field by letting Canadian firms – which have often had intellectual property stolen and then got squeezed out of China – get offshore dispute arbitrations. These are to take place maybe in Scandinavia, but certainly elsewhere to avoid the scandalously biased Chinese courts. China has transparent business regulations so China resisted. Treaty of Vladivostok turns out to give enormous advantages to Chinese firms in Canada and be genuinely bad for Canada – for thiry-0ne years! Pierre Trudeau's son will face Harper in the next national elections; the son has close associations with Chinese investment firms.
Wednesday 17 September 2014 / Hour 2, Block B: Nitin Gokhale, anchor at New Delhi Television and author of Beyond NJ 9842: The Saichen Saga, in re: As Xi Jinping arrives in Gujarat to confer with Modhi, Australian police allege that members of a group of terrorists planned to behead an Australian citizen in public. See news & social media. Was to be a demonstration killing – snatch someone in Sydney, execute him on camera, with direct exhortations coming from an Australian quite senior in ISIS. More than 800 police in pre-dawn raids.
"As Xi Jinping arrives in Gujarat to confer with Modhi," – how can China think this is a good idea? Battalion strengths, India has matched the troops so it’s eyeball to eyeball. This is bizarre, meant to be an affront, demonstration of imperial power? Or the PLA is not fully under the control of Xi Jinping, so some commanders picked this time to embarrass Xi, or else take this chance to advance their own policy. Does it empower Xi to oblige Modhi to ask about this? Not really – it at least would expose Chinese policy as belligerent. The Indian army is not likely to back down. Chinese need to be aware of this.
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China signed a landmark agreement with the government of Gujarat, which is expected to facilitate investments worth thousands of crores in the form of industrial parks, as Chinese President Xi Jinping kicked off his three-day state visit to India on Wednesday. Xi, the first Chinese leader to visit Gujarat, was given a warm welcome after the Air China special aircraft carrying him and his wife Peng Liyuan landed at the airport. Giant billboards in Mandarin, Gujarati and English had been put up at several places to welcome the Chinese leader.
Soon after, the two sides got down to business as a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) was signed between the China Development Bank (CDB) and the Industrial Extension Bureau — popular as iNDEXTb (the Gujarat government unit in charge of accelerating industrial development in the state) — in the presence of Modi and Xi. According to the MoU, which has a validity of three years, the CDB will guide and introduce Chinese enterprises to set up industrial parks in Gujarat. This role will be similar to that of JETRO, which has been facilitating Japanese investments in Gujarat. CDB will also provide financial support for the industrial parks, the first of which will come up in Vadodara.
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Wednesday 17 September 2014 / Hour 2, Block C: Abheek Bhattacharya, WSJ, in re:
Wednesday 17 September 2014 / Hour 2, Block D: Tunku Varadarajan, Hoover, with Gordon Chang, in re: http://www.openthemagazine.com/article/voices/soulmates-of-the-east
Hour Three
Logo, below - Mirabile dictu, Philip Morris commits a heroic deed: it refuses to accept tobacco farmed by children under the age of eighteen, and has fired subcontractors who tried to sneak around the ban. Bravissimo, Philip Morris.
Wednesday 17 September 2014 / Hour 3, Block A: Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor; in re: In Tampa, Obama rules out ground troops vs. ISIS: 'We're ... President Barack Obama on Wednesday at MacDill Air Force Base promised a gymnasium packed with men and women in . . .
Wednesday 17 September 2014 / Hour 3, Block B: Steven Greenhouse, NYT, in re: . . . Farm Labor Organizing Committee in North Carolina nonetheless supports children working in tobacco, where it’s been wholly established that they get ill, get nauseated, are at risk for major maladies. GOP has opposed all limits on children's working in agriculture even in dangerous realms. Some workers are seven years old! Growers use labor contractors who'll hire anyone, including small children with their parents. (Skin surface has much grater proportion to weight; toxins and ppesticides.) Same as what happnned in Dhaka, where the corporations took no responsibility for heir subcontractors, then there were fires and mass deaths. Only Philip Morris is firing contractors who use child labor.
Wednesday 17 September 2014 / Hour 3, Block C: Perfidia: A novel by James Ellroy Perfidia by James Ellroy review – crime fiction on a ... There is a little-known Austrian documentary about James Ellroy entitled The Demon Dog of American Crime Fiction, in which the Los Angeles ... (1 of 2)
Wednesday 17 September 2014 / Hour 3, Block D: Perfidia: A novel by James Ellroy Perfidia by James Ellroy review – crime fiction on a ... There is a little-known Austrian documentary about James Ellroy entitled The Demon Dog of American Crime Fiction, in which the Los Angeles ... (2 of 2)
Hour Four
Wednesday 17 September 2014 / Hour 4, Block A: Anna Nemtsova, Daily Beast, in re: http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/09/10/a-torture-survivor-on-u...
Wednesday 17 September 2014 / Hour 4, Block B: Kori Schake, Hoover, in re: US World News and Report piece, "Encouraging Our Enemies, Discouraging Our Friends."
Wednesday 17 September 2014 / Hour 4, Block C: McKay Coppins, BuzzFeed, in re: Jon Huntsman, Independent for President? The former Utah governor has engaged with supporters and donors in a discussion about another White House bid in 2016.
Wednesday 17 September 2014 / Hour 4, Block D: Paul Gregory, Hoover, in re: As the Sanctions' Noose Tightens, China Grabs Russian Energy Assets at Bargain Prices
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See also: http://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/op-ed/john-batchelor-approaching-winter-...
Europe’s need for natural gas lends Kremlin leverage by John Batchelor @batchelorshow
Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin and Kremlin hawks believe they have plenty of time to resolve the Ukraine crisis in their favor. Reinforcements are due in less than 60 days. Moscow knows that even now getting on his kit and stepping into his boots is General Winter, the most successful military officer in Russian history.
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, due this week in Washington, is also aware that with General Winter comes the cooling Ukraine temperatures in October and immoderate snowfall by November that will force an accommodation on a fragile Kiev coalition government. Everyone, from utopians to neo-Nazis, knows that Ukraine cannot heat its cities or sustain its infrastructure without Russian natural gas.
Kiev is also well aware that the military failure in the Donbass offensive combined with the politicking for the imminent new elections means that there are loud, threatening voices from within the so-called National Guard battalion. There is even talk of a third Maidan (translation: “coup”), and this time it will be anti–ruling class, a step into anarchy. The defeated battalion commanders, especially from the neo-Nazi Azov Battalion and the volunteer, savage Chechens hold Kiev responsible as betrayers and cowards.
The EU also knows that General Winter rides not just against Ukraine and Eastern Europe — the old Warsaw Pact countries — but also against Western Europe. Despite all the talk of alternative sources for the last 20 years, the EU has no remedy for a Russian energy cutback.
The chess game has already started: The Kremlin began selectively . . . [more]
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