Wednesday 19 December 2018
Photo: Water pollution in India. Photo by MilaAdam
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JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Co-hosts: Gordon Chang, Forbes.com and David Livingston, The Space Show
Wednesday 19 December 2018/ Hour 1, Block A: Arthur Waldron, Lauder Professor of International Relations in the Department of History at the University of Pennsylvania, in re: The "element of madness" in Chinese society and politics, and on Xi Jinping’s turning his back on reform:
Fortieth anniversary of the first day of “reform and opening-up” (gai3 ge2 kai4 fang1); in his speech, Xi Jinping endeavored to force his will on 1.3 billion people; and all of East Asia and eventually the whole Solar System. He made patently false statements, yet no response from the audience.
Madness? Yes, in the sense of destruction. There are a lot of very, very angry people in China. Thee years ago I witnessed a small riot in west Beijing. A Chinese colleague said, This is what China is really like. Xi is worried that this will all surface, and he’s also fearful of the economy, He has a high school education; never has learned anything serious that a president of a country of almost 4 million sq mi would know. He resents people who fail to defer to him and to China. “There are no textbooks that contain golden rules; just arrogant teachers.” He insists that the Party is always right (history doesn't bear this out). He keeps speaking of reform without telling us what that is.
Foreshadowing the future: “We’ll encounter storms, maybe tidal waves. We’ll [pull through] only if we put all confidence in the Party.”
Last time we saw this, ‘twas Mao with the Great Leap Forward; also historically the Taiping Revolution.
We could be seeing a situation where everything goes wrong.
Never before has there been this much vertical loyalty and so little horizontal loyalty. It’s the Chinese family that keeps stability, but Xi demands that that all [loyalty] be accorded to him. After forty years of perfect Party leadership, this economic [mess] isn't supposed to be happening. He understands that failure is imminent. All Xi has done is exacerbate the problems; his nemesis.
Wednesday 19 December 2018/ Hour 1, Block B: Greg Scarlatoiu, Executive Director of the Committee for Human Rights in North Korea (HRNK), in re: On Monday, the General Assembly voted to condemn North Korea. . . . 120,000 people, including children and parents; are being held in forced labor camps and subjected to starvation. No serious steps taken by the Kim regime toward denuclearization and zero in human rights. Is the South Korean president pressuring you? No. However, ROK human rights groups are under horrible pressure and censored.
Wednesday 19 December 2018/ Hour 1, Block C: Rick Fisher, Intl Assessment and Strategy Center; in re: Xi consolidated power by having the generals and admirals swear allegiance to him, not to the Party or the country. Boomer subs: this is China’s third-gen SLBM, the Titan 096. Bill Gertz says they've finally tested the missiles; in late November, was from the new Chinese conventionally-powered sub, designed exactly for test launches. Command to test came from the highest-echelon military or else from Xi.
It’ll utilize advanced quieting technology. The US has long used engines to be sound-isolated from the hull; China seems to have learned this in the last few years. China will also wire the sea beds around China for sound; wherever the sensors are will pick up US subs. US plans to dvp large, unmanned combat subs to carry on the fight. MIRVed warheads: a missile can carry 10 multiple-entry independent warheads.
Recall 1990s controversy over transfer of MIRV tech to China. A walk-in gave the US papers showing what China could accomplish. That informed US policy.
Wednesday 19 December 2018/ Hour 1, Block D: Josh Rogin, Washington Post, in re: Taiwan-US relations. . . . The DPP in Taiwan left itself open to criticism. Presumably Tsai Ing-wen will run again; how can she avid [attacks of this sort] from China? Need a coordinated front; first, educate the public, then come up with policies that address transparency; expose that; a law enforcement issue. Also, tidy up your own shop. “The 50-cent army” – is one of mercenary bots and trolls, who harass, and are propagandist on the cheap. . . Espionage is one thing, and interference operations are another. China not only is stealing all our data but is using it to damage our democracy. The 2020 election will be at least an economic and [propagandistic] battlefield.
Wednesday 19 December 2018/ Hour 2, Block A: Charles Burton, professor at Brock University, in re: Meng Wanzhou and the Huawei controversy in Canada. Dark rumors that she’s been involved in hitherto unknown, highly interesting matters. Meanwhile, China has detained at least three Canadians, of whom two are being treated brutally, and perhaps tortured. Trudeau’s popularity is at 8% as he seems to be allowing Huawei to use 5G . . . The Chinese ambassador to Canada has made menacing statements in the Globe and Mail. Apparently Ms Meng has committed some serious offenses according to the Western rule of law.
Trudeau remarked on the third Canadian, a middle-aged native of Alberta, previously a sales clerk in a furniture store, then went to teach English, Is charged with a minor visa irregularity. China may ban some winter coats from Canada. Canadian planes have been monitoring North Korean military and human right violations; China sends planes out to harass the Canadian planes, also have appropriated Canadian military airwaves and have been using vulgar language to be extremely rude. Canadians are famously polite, and are disturbed by the words.
Wednesday 19 December 2018/ Hour 2, Block B: Charles Ortel, Newport Value Partners, in re: US stocks and the Chinese market
Wednesday 19 December 2018/ Hour 2, Block C: Monica Crowley, London Institute for Policy research, in re: The remarkable proclamation by Chris Matthews, where he offers to prevent Pres Trump’s children from being arrested if the president resigns now. Jaw-dropping. (1 of 2)
Wednesday 19 December 2018/ Hour 2, Block D: Monica Crowley, London Institute for Policy research, in re: The remarkable proclamation by Chris Matthews, where he offers to prevent Pres Trump’s children from being arrested if the president resigns now. Jaw-dropping. (2 of 2)
Wednesday 19 December 2018/ Hour 3, Block A: Lara M Brown, George Washington University, and Salena Zito, CNN, in re: Political maps.
Wednesday 19 December 2018/ Hour 3, Block B: Sadanand Dhume, AEI and Wall Street Journal; in re: Pollution in India.
Wednesday 19 December 2018/ Hour 3, Block C: Michael Ledeen, FDD, in re: Michael Flynn.
Wednesday 19 December 2018/ Hour 3, Block D: Hotel Mars, episode n, in re: Russian space.
Wednesday 19 December 2018/ Hour 4, Block A:
Wednesday 19 December 2018/ Hour 4, Block B:
Wednesday 19 December 2018/ Hour 4, Block C: First to Jump: How the Band of Brothers was Aided by the Brave Paratroopers of Pathfinders Company, by Jerome Preisler
Wednesday 19 December 2018/ Hour 4, Block D: First to Jump: How the Band of Brothers was Aided by the Brave Paratroopers of Pathfinders Company, by Jerome Preisler