Wednesday 27 November 2013
Photo, above: Coolidge homestead in Plymouth Notch, Vermont. See Hour 3, Block B, Abigail Millard, Coolidge Foundation prizewinner
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Hour One
Wednesday 27 November 2013 / Hour 1, Block A: Scott Harold, Associate Political Scientist at the RAND Corporation based in Hong Kong, in re: Official: U.S. B-52s flew over China's controversial new air defense zone China, Japan, Korea, Australia, and the United States; Chinese Peoples Liberation Army and Navy and Air Force declared a zone of its interest over the sea that's universally considered to be international waters. On Saturday, the US responded by sending B-52s over the space. Question: is this the PLA driving policy, or something else?
Escalation? No, we're not at he beginning stages but in the middle of a longstanding effort by China to fore Japan to relinquish the Senkakus. Strategy goes back to 2010 when China flooded tea res=a with "fishing" vessels, drones, planes. We're in the game. The US purposely ignored China's new rules to communicate in advance via various transponder frequencies, etc. The White House described China's deed as "inflammatory." Secretaries Kerry and Hagel both issued strong statements immediately after China's declaration. This is an inflection point; China's action fundamentally challenges the interests of the United States and its treaty allies. How will China respond? We should anticipate that China will not wish to accept defeat in this – lose not only face but influence. Japan and South Korea have instructed their civilian airlines to ignore the dictat.
China’s decision to impose a new air defense zone over a wide swath of the East China Sea is at odds with its claim to want a peaceful resolution to territorial disputes over a group of islands there. The announcement is a highly provocative move that has increased tensions and could make direct conflict with Japan more likely.
On Saturday, China declared the zone around the islands, called Senkaku in Japan and Diaoyu in China, and asserted the right to require aircraft entering the space to identify themselves and possibly to take military action against those that do not. The uninhabited islands, some no more than piles of rocks, are administered by Japan but claimed by China and Taiwan.
While foreign-policy experts and risk analysts were riveted by the nuclear talks with Iran last weekend, the next major geopolitical crisis erupted a world away, over a clump of desolate islands in the choppy waters between Japan and China.
With the United States sending two B-52s to reinforce its protest over China’s attempt to control the airspace over the islands, it served as a timely reminder that President Obama wants to turn America’s gaze eastward, away from the preoccupations of the Middle East.
Mr. Obama’s shift — once known as a pivot, now rebranded as a rebalance — has always seemed more rhetorical than real. But when Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. travels to China, Japan and South Korea next week, the administration will have another chance to flesh out the policy. . . .
Wednesday 27 November 2013 / Hour 1, Block B: Anne Stevenson-Yang, co-founder of J Capital Research, in re: huge increase in Chinese liquidity, but major Chinese banking entities having trouble borrowing. Rates very high in bank mkt (banks don't trust each other). Central govt trying to get its own natl bank in control and is diminishing power of small banks. High-stakes game. At some point, the banks will just freeze. Lots of bad loans in the big banks; can carry the bad loans only so long. Debt has to be carried by somebody. Inflation is higher than the interest they receive; eventually the economy starts to ail. When you flood the economy with money, rich people benefit while poor people are reduced. Avg family has 50% of its assets in real estate. China lives on cheap credit the way an addict lives on crack. When the halt comes – when th US and others tighten (Federal Reserve) plus adverse trends within China – it'll be a crunch.
Credit-Driven China Glut Threatens Surge into Bank Crisis
Fears Rise as China's Yields Soar Yields on Chinese government debt have soared to their highest levels in nearly nine years amid Beijing's relentless drive to tighten the monetary spigots in the world's second-largest economy. The higher yields on government debt have pushed up borrowing costs broadly, creating obstacles for companies and government agencies looking to tap bond markets. Several Chinese development banks, which have mandates to encourage growth through targeted investments, have had to either scale back borrowing plans or postpone bond sales.
The slowing pace of bond sales from earlier in the year is reviving worries of reduced credit and soaring funding costs that were sparked in June, when China's debt markets were rattled by a cash crunch.
Wednesday 27 November 2013 / Hour 1, Block C: Dr. David M. Livingston, The Space Show, and Robert Zubrin, in re: recently released information on Inspiration Mars and the plan. The USA Today article, "Relaunch the space race." Russians have a lot of excellent techies; some Russians prefer to take us back to the Cold War. We need to invite Russia right now to join the Mars program to bring them in to [amity] with us. This would be incomparably cheaper than a new Cold War. Also, are we as a species forever Earth-bound?
Can we sell Mars as a profit-making venture? It’s intellectual capital! With the Russians joint work would be a _; some of Putin's associates are trying to use space exploration for nationalistic purposes. When the colonists came to Jamestown, they were looking for gold, and didn’t find any – but their arrival led to a new branch of human development from the Constitution to the telephone to the Internet. I don’t want to exclude Japan, China, Korea, but the key idea is to bring in Russia, which thinks it has something to prove. Solution is to invite them to join us. SpaceX is excellent; I spoke at Skolkovo outside Moscow (MIT/Russian tech center): no SpaceX in Russia because Putin confiscates private space. For that to work there. he'll have to respect private property. We can teach them that power requires freedom.
Konstantin Eduardovich Tsiolkovsky on interplanetary travel:
"The Earth is the cradle of the mind, but we cannot live forever in a cradle."
Wednesday 27 November 2013 / Hour 1, Block D: Michael Auslin, AEI, in re: China's Air Defense Identification Zone - US govt sources have told US commercial air carriers: "You're on your own" in deciding whether or not to provide Chinese govt the data they demand. Japanese carriers announced they'd provide the info, but Abe considers this to be an important issue. Problem: civilian carriers would be putting the lives of their passengers in the hands of twenty-year-old fighter pilots. PLA has sent its aircraft carrier through the area to the South China Sea. The message is clear: an air control zone, and this is intended to be the first of many, including the South China Sea. Could have a regime of Chinese sufferance for regional travel. Soon, China will have to decide to escalate or not. Then what does the US do? Its one thing to say that we won't respect it, and another to find ways to defuse hostilities. This US Administration is known for its words , not its actions. We'll have to show no hesitation to have our planes in the air, to escort planes if needed, and no ambiguity such as we heard this afternoon.
“Tensions are escalating in the East China Sea.” The Sino-Japanese conflict over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands is rapidly escalating due to the development of UAVs and the Obama Administration’s preoccupation with internal problems, such as NSA spying and the botched implementation of ObamaCare. Risks of complying with China’s expanded air defense zone, which covers most of the East China Sea, including the disputed Senkaku Islands/Diaoyutai.
Hour Two
Wednesday 27 November 2013 / Hour 2, Block A: Reggie Littlejohn, President of Women’s Rights Without Frontiers, in re: the one-child policy institute s d in 1979 forced parents to have only one child. Been slightly liberalized since; still one of the most intrusive regimes imaginable – public inquiries into one's most private life – maintains what will be come demographic doom: China will grow old before it grows rich. Widespread, large-scale forced abortion is still a tool of the regime. The vaguely-reformed policy won’t alleviate the demographic diminution. In the countryside in those places where you may have a second child is where female infanticide is worst; there are nine provinces with many more boys than girls born; in two provinces, there are 190 boys for every girl!! [In a nation with zero infanticide, the ratio is naturally about 103 girls born for every 100 born.] There are now 37 million extra males – can’t find a wife; could be inducted into the military, which would shift China's external policy.
Women’s Rights Without Frontiers’ President Reggie Littlejohn was a featured speaker in Amnesty International’s film series against gender violence. Littlejohn, an internationally-recognized expert and opponent of China’s One-Child Policy, presented after the Hong Kong premiere of It’s A Girl, a feature-length documentary that focuses on gendercide and forced abortion in India and China. Littlejohn is featured in the film, which vividly details rampant coercion under China’s population policy. Screenings of the documentary took place at the Hong Kong Arts Centre on November 18th and 19th.
Littlejohn’s visit demonstrates a growing international opposition to forced abortion as violence against women and is a significant moment for Women’s Rights Without Frontiers. While Littlejohn has addressed the issue before the United States Congress, European Parliament, British Parliament, United Nations and Vatican, this visit was her first time speaking against forced abortion and gendercide from Chinese soil. Littlejohn’s remarks were broadcast into mainland China by Voice of America.
In connection with the film screening, she met with top human rights leaders, lawyers and legislators to discuss the state of China’s population policy [more]
Wednesday 27 November 2013 / Hour 2, Block B: Rick Fisher, Senior Fellow on Asian Military Affairs, International Assessment and Strategy Center, in re: China's air-defense zone vs Japan, Korea and the US. China sent a drone near the Senkakus; Abe scrambled jets. Drones have been flying against Japan since December 2012. In September 2013, Japan said that this could lead to Japan's shooting down the drone, which China said would be an act of war. The drone was a subsonic slow-flying with a reciprocating gasoline engine. Last week's drone was the same size as the X-47 Rabo[?] US has used drones for surveillance in Afpakia and Mali. Sometimes they're armed and shoot Hellfire missiles. US used drone s in Vietnam. China wants Japan to shoot own a Chinese drone in order for China to react forcefully to Japan. In the medium term, China will dvp ore sophisticated drones and will use tem for the air-defense zone proclaimed last Saturday. Cd be flying over the East China Sea and the South China Sea. Currently China has a two drone units on the coast. Tries to use nonviolent force to push the Japanese farther and farther away; Japan has not backed off. China will now use the same method in the air, which is much more dangerous. Vast investment in unmanned aircraft over the last decade. Can match the US Predator 1; the Predator 2 is about to come on the field. Japan will push back by taking a chance and shoot one down – if you do that early, you might scare the Chinese away.
China successfully flew a stealth drone for the first time on Thursday, state media said, citing eyewitness reports. A drone, called "Sharp Sword" by the media, made a test flight for around 20 minutes in Chengdu, reports said. China has been developing stealth aircraft in recent years, including J-20 and J-31 stealth fighters. In September, an unmanned drone flew close to a group of disputed islands in the East China Sea, raising tensions with Japan. Following that incident, Japan said it would shoot down unmanned aircraft in Japanese airspace. China's defence ministry said that any attempt by Japan to shoot down Chinese aircraft would constitute "an act of war". [more]
Wednesday 27 November 2013 / Hour 2, Block C: Alan Tonelson, Research Fellow at the U.S. Business & Industry Council Educational Fdn, in re: "You name it, Foxconn makes it." Workers were willing to pay for their own room and board off-campus even though it was free on the campus, but was a nightmare, and many young people committed suicide in reaction. Foxconn also contributed $10 million to Carnegie-Mellon's robotic program. In the US automotive sector, now booming: inflation-adjusted wages have been falling faster since the recession trick at the end of 2007, faster even than retail wages have. In China, wages rising four times faster than productivity is. The field is still much skewed by Chinese govt subsidies plus Chinese currency manipulation. In the US, govt regulatory capture driving industry out of much of the Eastern US, many parts of which are industrial wastelands. Washington State losing Boeing to South Carolina. In-shoring: mfrg operations return to the US after having migrated overseas; it's overwhelmingly imaginary!
Foxconn Sends a Manufacturing Message with New Pennsylvania Plant Last week, the international electronics mega-manufacturer Foxconn announced plans to invest $30 million in a new robotics plant in Harrisburg, PA. Foxconn, the notorious Chinese low-wage manufacturer of Apple’s iPhone, has become the poster child of U.S. outsourcing in the face of ruinous global labor cost competition. The calculus of manufacturing supremacy is seemingly simple: Low labor costs and taxes, proximity to a large consumer base, and manageable corruption levels equal a sure strategy to attract global firms. [more]
Wednesday 27 November 2013 / Hour 2, Block D: Joseph Sternberg, WSJ Asia editorial board, in re: Third Plenum is a despotic body. You can’t just flip a switch and have Chinese companies learn how to operate the way the [free world] does. China bought Smithfield ham in order to learn how to operate. How far will they go before the old guard in the leadership loses its nerve? Will scale back sooner than the optimists think. . . . How do you build a political consensus in that kind of environment? Need to overcome entrenched opposition to change in order to make the reforms that are necessary.
Hour Three
Wednesday 27 November 2013 / Hour 3, Block A: Francis Rose, Federal News Radio, in re: . . . employer mandate was suspended/delayed as o 2 July (just before another national holiday); and now this; what'll be announced on 23 December? "The website is working pretty well now" – means: nothing definitive to measure it by. Extreme unease, esp among Democrats, about the cancellation notices. Lots of former ACA supporters are getting cancellation letters. Je Biden will be tasked to talk to Democrats about their anxieties; Jimmy Fallon said, "Pres Obama lit a candle in the Hanukkah menorah; Joe Biden came by, exclaimed, 'Happy birthday!' and blew the candles out." With less than a month to go, they've "postponed the marketing."
Healthcare.gov update, lowering the bar for weeks with wiggle language: Obama: HealthCare.gov working "pretty well now." "I think it's fair to say I'm not happy about the fact that we didn't have a website that worked on the day it was supposed to work -- although it's actually starting to work pretty well now, and it's going to be working even better in the coming weeks," Obama said in Beverly Hills, California. Earlier in the day, the White House spokesman, Joshua Earnest, said the White House was "on track" for meeting the Nov. 30 goal for having the Obamacare website work for the "vast majority" of users, citing information from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services." The Washington Post.
Photo, below: Abby Millard, Coolidge Memorial Foundation prizewinner, with her father
Wednesday 27 November 2013 / Hour 3, Block B: Abigail Millard, Coolidge Foundation prizewinner, in re: Winner of the First Annual Calvin Coolidge Prize for Journalism Announced at New York Dinner with Paul Volcker PLYMOUTH NOTCH, Vt., Nov. 13, 2013 / The board of the Calvin Coolidge Memorial Foundation is honored to announce Holman W. Jenkins, Jr., columnist and editorial board member of the Wall Street Journal, is the winner of the first annual Coolidge Prize for Journalism. The $20,000 Coolidge Prize honors the writer who best captured the spirit and style of the thirtieth president and the ideals President Calvin Coolidge favored. The board is also proud to announce Abigail Millard is the winner of The Calvin Prize for Youth, awarded to a Vermont writer under the age of 20. The prize was awarded last evening, Tuesday, November 12, 2013, in New York City at a banquet dinner at the Four Seasons Restaurant featuring the esteemed Paul Volcker, former Chairman of the Federal Reserve, and the noted economist Larry Kudlow of CNBC.
. . . Millard said Coolidge was a fiscal conservative. “He was president for six years and all six years he balanced the budget, so he believed very much in controlling spending,” Millard said. “I would say he would not be very happy with the financial state of the government today.”
And on foreign affairs, Millard said Coolidge issued warnings to step into foreign affairs carefully and only after considering the possible consequences of each action. “It would have to be taken on a case-by-case basis of each particular conflict,” Millard said about the recent string of military conflicts the U.S. has been involved in.
Millard, who traveled with her father to the awards banquet, said it was her first trip to New York City. They were able to get in a little sightseeing, including visiting Central Park. “It was a really great experience,” she said. “I really enjoyed the dinner. I learned a lot more about Calvin Coolidge than I already knew.”
Millard said one of the highlights of the dinner was sitting next to Charles Johnson, an author and historian who wrote Why Coolidge Matters: Leadership Lessons from America’s Most Underrated President. Millard said he asked about her writing, education and interests. “He encouraged me to keep writing and told me of some of his experiences of his writing and prizes he won when he was in high school.”
Millard said the essay came about as a result of a recommendation by her history teacher, who suggested to students that they consider entering the competition. “I love to write and I am particularly interested in Calvin Coolidge because it goes along with local history, and he was from Vermont,” Millard said. . . . [more]
Plymouth, Vt. — A Weathersfield girl was awarded a $1,500 prize by the Calvin Coolidge Memorial Foundation for her essay on the nation’s 30th president. Abigail Millard was named winner of The Calvin Prize for Youth, awarded to a Vermont writer 19 years of age or younger. Millard, 16, of Perkinsville, is a junior at Windsor High School. She was honored Nov. 12 in New York City. Also honored in New York was Holman W. Jenkins Jr., a columnist and editorial board member at the Wall Street Journal, who won the Coolidge Prize for Journalism and a $20,000 prize. It honors a writer who best captured the spirit and style of President Coolidge and his ideals.
Wednesday 27 November 2013 / Hour 3, Block C: Robert Zimmerman, behindtheblack.com, in re: In an interview Richard Branson says that Virgin Galactic is working to replace SpaceShipTwo’s hybrid engine.
So for instance, the initial rocket which I’ll be flying on to space will be thrown away afterward. Within six to nine months, we will be using rockets that will have capability of being used maybe up to 1,000 times, but definitely up to 100 times. That will bring the cost of space travel down dramatically.
This timing fits with their new schedule for the first commercial flights of SpaceShipTwo sometime late in 2014. I suspect they are hoping to fly the ship a few more times with the troublesome hybrid engine, partly for engineering research and partly to keep interest up in the company, and then switch over to a new engine.
As said by the chief technology officer of one of the world’s largest satellite communications company, in reference to today’s scheduled 5:37 pm (Eastern) launch of Falcon 9′s first geosynchronous satellite payload. As this man and Elon Musk also added, Read More
Wednesday 27 November 2013 / Hour 3, Block D: Mark Niquette, Bloomberg, in re: VOTER TRENDS. Democrats Run Biggest Cities as U.S. Residents Cluster by Party – Twenty years ago, half the 12 largest U.S. municipalities had a Republican mayor. De Blasio’s election means that besides New York, there will be Democratic mayors next year in Los Angeles; Chicago; Houston; Philadelphia; Phoenix; San Antonio; Dallas; San Jose, California; Austin, Texas; and Jacksonville, Florida.
Hour Four
Wednesday 27 November 2013 / Hour 4, Block A: JFK, Conservative by Ira Stoll (1 of 4)
Wednesday 27 November 2013 / Hour 4, Block B: JFK, Conservative by Ira Stoll (2 of 4)
Wednesday 27 November 2013 / Hour 4, Block C: JFK, Conservative by Ira Stoll (3 of 4)
Wednesday 27 November 2013 / Hour 4, Block D: JFK, Conservative by Ira Stoll (4 of 4)
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Music
Hour 1: Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon. House of Flying Daggers. Star Trek II. Empire: Total War
Hour 2: Downton Abbey. Empire: Total War. The Recruit.
Hour 3: Tora! Tora! Tora! Hollywood Goes to War. Waterworld.
Hour 4: The Recruit.
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Hour 3, Block B: Abigail Millard, Coolidge Foundation prizewinner
Coffee with the President: Calvin Coolidge and America Today
The thirtieth President of the United States, Calvin Coolidge was a man of few words, but much wisdom. As we remember the eightieth anniversary of his death, it is important to consider how he would view the current status of his country. Imagine sitting down with President Coolidge today, for a cup of coffee and a conversation. Picture his solemn expression, clever wit, and quiet countenance. Envision his intent expression as he carefully listens to you. Hear his thoughtful, to the point advice. America has changed drastically since Coolidge was President. Would he see this evolution of the country’s economy, foreign policy, and government itself as change for the better, or the worse?
The first thing that comes to mind is the recent government shutdown and the debate surrounding the debt ceiling. Over the past decade, the government’s spending and debt has skyrocketed. A frugal and thrifty man, President Coolidge took a more careful approach to spending. He stated, "We must keep our budget balanced for each year. That is the corner stone of our national credit, the trifling price we pay to command the lowest rate of interest of any great power in the world. Any surplus can be applied to debt reduction, and debt reduction is tax reduction." He believed in government spending only within its means and maintaining a balanced budget.
In addition to his financial policies, President Coolidge felt strongly about keeping the focus of economy on American industry. As he said to labor leaders during his presidency, "We had better stick to the American brand of government, the American brand of equality, the American brand of wages. America had better stay American." The majority of products purchased today are produced overseas in countries like China. It is increasingly difficult to find products “made in the U.S.A.” as corporations progressively outsource jobs. Coolidge would encourage us to keep jobs in our own country.
Coolidge believed wholeheartedly in decreased involvement of the federal government. "The United States Government ought to keep from undertaking to transact business that the people themselves ought to transact. As soon as the Government tries to transact such business, the people with whom it is being transacted don’t regard it as the Government’s business. They think it ought not to be done for the benefit of…all the people, but …for their [personal] benefit.” Recently, there has been Congressional discord about the level at which the federal government should be involved. A national healthcare plan has been passed by the federal government. Many argue that this area is not the responsibility of the federal government. The Republican Party in particular has fought against these types of “entitlement programs”. Coolidge might agree with these Republicans, concerned about the number of areas the in which federal government has become involved.
Another important issue is foreign policy. The United States has been a major player in world conflicts, from World War II to more recent Iraq war. Currently, the government debates over issues in Syria, Iran, and Israel. Coolidge cautioned about international involvement. "America stands ready to bear its share of the burdens of the world, but it cannot live the life of other peoples, it cannot remove from them the necessity of working out their own destiny.” He warned that the decision to step in during foreign conflicts should be made with care, always considering the consequences.
Over all, President Coolidge stressed the importance of personal responsibility at both a personal and governmental level. Today our nation is plagued by lack of accountability. The American public largely blames the government for the country’s difficulties. Congress and the President blame each other and there is discord between political parties within Congress. Coolidge addressed this phenomenon, saying, "Where the people themselves are the government, it needs no argument to demonstrate that what the people cannot do their government cannot do." Things like accountability start at a personal level. If each individual focused on their own part in the issues facing our nation, conflict could be greatly reduced. In addition, individuals should make decisions for the good of their nation, willing to sacrifice their own personal gain. According to Coolidge, this is the very definition of patriotism. "Patriotism is easy to understand in America. It means looking out for yourself by looking out for your country.”
Can you see President Coolidge’s expression as he hears you describe these complex issues facing our country today? Perhaps these problems are not so different than those that leaders of this nation have encountered throughout history. The outcome is only different based on the way leaders react to or handle the difficulties. As we consider these matters as citizens of the United States, we should also consider the wisdom of Calvin Coolidge. Imagine his thoughtful advice as he sips his coffee. Consider his example of leadership, his ideals, and his character. As he himself said, "To honor the past, is to render more secure the present.”
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