Photo, left: The madly beautiful and enormous Lake Baikal, in southern Siberia, is among the many places that China's current crop of belligerent leaders hope to seize from Russia one of these days.  Baikal is both one of the world's most interesting geological phenomena and perhaps the holiest site in Mongolian Buddhism.
 
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
 
Co-hosts: Gordon Chang, Forbes.com & Daily Beast. Dr. David M. Livingston, The Space Show.
 
Hour One
Wednesday   4 May 2016 / Hour 1, Block A: Arthur Waldron, Lauder Professor of International Relations in the Department of History at the University of Pennsylvania, in re:   In China, Capo No. 1 (Xi Jinping) seems to be trying to kill Capo No. 2 (Li Keqiang); which leaves No. 2 with little chance but try to kill No. 1 simply to save his own life.  Two cars drove wildly across the street, tried to crush the van that No 2 was in.   The fact that 1 and 2 come from vastly different social networks means that they can quickly divide the country into two opposing groups at war: if the top two people split, that split goes straight down the pyramid. In a parliamentary system you'd have a vote, or go to a court of law, or have a referendum, but China has never developed anything remotely like these networks.  All of Mao’s comrades perished or disappeared; it was only Chou En-lai’s death in early 1976 that kept him from being killed by Mao, who then died in September 1976.
We take for granted a Starbucks stability in China, but that’s not accurate. Historically, a Party adversary was killed; Deng Xiao-ping’s contribution was to back everyone back off from actual murder.
May 16 is the fiftieth anniversary of Mao’s Cultural Revolution, which killed 1.5 milion Chinese people. Note that China is now antagonistic to its neighbors, anticipating war. The US needs to be prepared.
There used to be a bargain that the Party would no longer kill rivals; if you’re of high-enough rank that still applies, but numerous dissenters and those of lower rank have been and are being killed for many reasons, incl to get (and sell) their kidneys. https://www.hongkongfp.com/2016/04/29/xi-jinpings-move-faction-suggests-china-elite-struggle-experts/
Wednesday   4 May 2016 / Hour 1, Block B:  Sung-Yoon Lee, professor at The Fletcher School, in re:  In January, North Korea conducted its fourth nuclear test, then followed that up a month later with another test. The upcoming Party Congress is all about idolizing Kim Jong-eun, his fifth year in power.  April 15 is the founder’s [Kim Il-sung] birthday, the most important day in the year. This Congress is Eun’s most important show; it starts on Friday. Govt has banned weddings and funerals soon before or after to avoid excuses for gatherings and thus any possible show of unrest.    Soon after the founder’s death, one official got drunk at a dinner and, seen by Kim Jong-il as insufficiently in mourning], was promptly executed by firing squad.  North Korea is one of the potentially unstablest countries of the world; is a leading candidate for state collapse and has been since the deep famine of the early Nineties. 
One of North Korea’s main goals is to bully the US out of South Korea so the North can work toward invading the South.  Washington finally begins to notice this.   Recently, Pres Obama spoke of the US ability to “obliterate” North Korea; and Wendy Sherman spoke uncharacteristically of the North’s “collapse.”  Bush Adm greatest contribution was to start to see that the problem emanates from Pyongyang, not Washington or Seoul.  We need to accelerate our position by targeting the Kim family and cronies with restricting their money flow. The way to get China on board: economic disincentive of [Chinese] North Korea’s enablers, who have zero intention of changing their spots until they’re gravely restricted from bringing in money for themselves hand over fist by giving support to Pyongyang and “earning” huge kickbacks.   http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/kim-jong-un-north-korea-bans-weddings-funerals-freedom-of-movement-party-congress-a7009691.html  ;  http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2016/05/04/2016050401414.html
“Allies of Chinese President Xi Jinping are moving against a Communist organisation that is the power base of Premier Li Keqiang, in what analysts say may be a sign of faction-fighting at the top of the ruling party.
“The Communist Youth League (CYL) has long been a proving ground for young up-and-comers to demonstrate their political talent, particularly those who — unlike Xi — are not party ‘princelings’ with the advantage of high-ranking parents.”
Wednesday   4 May 2016 / Hour 1, Block C:  Dr Lara M Brown, George Washington University, and Salena Zito, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, in re:  http://www.politicspa.com/cnn-pennsylvania-leans-democrat-in-clinton-trump-battle-video/75191/  ;   http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/clinton-im-really-focused-moving-the-general-election  ( of 2)
Wednesday   4 May 2016 / Hour 1, Block D:  Dr Lara M Brown, George Washington University, and Salena Zito, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, in re:  http://www.politicspa.com/cnn-pennsylvania-leans-democrat-in-clinton-trump-battle-video/75191/  ;   http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/clinton-im-really-focused-moving-the-general-election  ( of 2)
 
Hour Two
Wednesday   4 May 2016 / Hour 2, Block A:  James Holmes, professor of strategy at the Naval War College and a former surface warfare officer, in re:  China has militarized the shoals in the South and East China Seas that it’s build yup with countless barges of garbage and then with military ports and landing strips.  The Stennis has been refused entry to Hong Kong, probably connected to the US’s recent efforts to maintain freedom of navigation in the region. Photo gone viral: Ash Carter and the Filipino Defense minister as the  ______ took off and you can see the aircraft carrier Stennis in the back door.   This gave heart to democracies and others in the region and infuriated China.  I think we should show solidarity early and often with our allies; in that case, we might be able to  create a nonviolent resolution. Unfortunately, what's necessary is not considered practical. After China seized Scarborough Shoal – it’s not an island, but a few rocks less than two meters above high tide, built up by China to militarize — the worst Chinese elements then felt emboldened and seized another shoal.  The Law of the Sea Convention is explicit in laying out that you may not build such islands [outside of] your own exclusive economic zone (200 mi), which does not apply to Scarborough – which is deep within waters owned by the Philippines. In the 1990s, China grabbed Mischief Reef from the Philippines and still holds it.
JB: There are rocks off South Korea you could do this with.  JH: True; clearly South Korean while China claims it; China also demands to have Ryukyus, and Vladivostok, and a big chunk of Siberia!  In the Naval War College, private talk is a demand to honor our commitments to our allies. See: the upcoming Hague decision on Scarborough Shoal, which is expected not to go in China’s favor, [which probably will engender yet more very bad behavior.]  http://www.wsj.com/articles/china-refuses-hong-kong-port-call-to-u-s-aircraft-carrier-1461951903  ;  https://www.rt.com/news/341794-china-south-sea-drill/
Wednesday   4 May 2016 / Hour 2, Block B:  Andrew Collier, managing director of Orient Capital Research based in Hong Kong (“world’s expert on Chinese swaps”), in re: In April the PMI [purchasing managers’s index] hit a wall – banks putting a lot of juice in the economy since 2015, but not producing that many goods, just slowing down. Revenue increased  7% but spending increased 20% in first quarter. A lot of the firms in China are losing monev—SOEs are losing assets. Banks are victims of the economy – a lot  of Chinese corporations are running into trouble, historically assuming that the govt would help, but now some are being allowed to fail. This is a positive: China acknowledges that it has zombie companies. So far in 2016, 70 defaults, but it’ll be reform iff [if and only if] the govt announces that it'll let everyone sink or swim; so far, govt merely helps its favorites. . . . Or lets them fail because the govt has no alternative.  In fact, reform often happens because entities just run out of money.  Defaults here are good news. Bad banks: were we in New York or London, what might be done? In the Western mortgage crisis, we gave banks money and they slimmed down. But in China, if they reform the banks it won’t help: have to reform the corporate sector along with the banks.  Need to have no more new loans to service old loans that can't be repaid, as this simply creates debt and more debt.  GC: I think that at some point the population will lose confidence. AC: Unemployment: 300 mil migrant labor from the countryside.   The state-own system once fired 28 million workers and now will fire 6 million workers. 
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/02/china-caixin-manufacturing-pmi-contracts-in-april.html   ;  http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2016/05/03/stocks-dow-tuesday/83863824/
Wednesday   4 May 2016 / Hour 2, Block C:  Christopher Nixon Cox, Nixon Library, and son of the GOP New York State Chairman; in re:  . . . China-Russia relations have long been difficult; in fact, perhaps always: China wants to claim Siberia, and Russia knows it. Xi Jinping may make some overtures, but dunno how long that’ll last. Distrust will play out for generations.  US policymakers need to keep abreast of this.  A big part of Chinese-US relations: free trade; engaging China to pay a more constructive role in a place like Syria – China might be broken off from Russia in this matter; and environment: pollution in Chinese cities is enormous and the populace wants it to improve.  We can build on trust on  multiple levels, can work both with China and internationally. As for a dramatic move, such as what my grandfather did, that’s a once-in-a-generation, or less, sort of move.    JB: GOP has special relations with China because of your grandfather and Bush elder, who was the US ambassador there.  What's your measure of the GOP and how Mr Trump will campaign?  CNC: On the surface, many challenges, and Trump’s words are confrontational; but my Chinese friends say they’d be more comfortable with him than with Mrs Clinton because you know what he thinks.  It may be that Trump’s clarity is refreshing to  Sino-US relations.   JB: What do they say about Trump’s proposed 45% tariff? CNC: They're smart enough to know that that’s a negotiating ploy. 
Wednesday   4 May 2016 / Hour 2, Block D:  Captain Jerry Hendrix, Center for a new American Security, in re:  Chinese (PLA Navy) high-performance airplanes on the shoal or illegally-built up islands and islets.   Combine elements of two fleets; type-52 Charlies and type-52 Deltas. Sophisticated anti-air and anti-sub capabilities. At least four destroyers? Complicated and sophisticated military exercise US has baseline Flight 1s (like the Luyang-2, of the early 1990s), Type-52 Deltas, near to the Flight 2 Arleigh Burke-class destroyers.  [Lots of technical info.]  .. . .  Philippines announced five locations now opened for US to rotate troops through or station troops at; one is in the South China Sea. We could create a no-man’s land there where nothing gets in or gets out; I doubt that China would care to ratchet the situation up to that level.  . . .  China is not acting alone; it has an ally in Moscow who enjoys humiliating the US (barrel-roll over our ship the Donald Cook,  + near-intercept of our surveillance aircraft, et al.); are they working together to demonstrate that the US is not longer powerful?   This could go kinetic (= lethal) quickly, It takes men – humans — in the loop to hold back the ship’s capability.  The Chinese diplomatic approach is to provoke, then portray itself as a victim, and then retaliate.  Remember the Cowpens.   The reporter David Larter: an order from the White House that‘s muddling military officers, who are forbidden to speak out.  Oops.
 
http://thediplomat.com/2016/05/chinas-navy-conducts-south-china-sea-drills-involving-paracel-and-spratly-islands/
http://sputniknews.com/military/20160504/1039081285/china-navy-drills.html
 
Hour Three
Wednesday   4 May 2016 / Hour 3, Block A:  Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor; in re: The American political scene.  RNC chairman: Trump "understands that this is a different ball game now" hill.cm/3S3dmRk  (1 of 4)
Wednesday   4 May 2016 / Hour 3, Block B: Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor; in re:  The American political scene.    shar.es/1eJeTQ  ; hill.cm/CufBZnY pic.twitter.com/om5AahBkrD  ; hill.cm/FV0sUVc pic.twitter.com/Gt1sB5FYyh   (2 of 4)
Wednesday   4 May 2016 / Hour 3, Block C:  Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor; in re:  The American political scene.   hill.cm/RyjZZkX pic.twitter.com/6vnlMIEa1h   (3 of 4)
Wednesday   4 May 2016 / Hour 3, Block D:  Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor; in re:  The American political scene.    (4 of 4)
 
Hour Four
Wednesday   4 May 2016 / Hour 4, Block A: Sebastian v Gorka, Marine Corps University, in re:  Defeating Jihad: The Winnable War  (1 of 2)
Wednesday   4 May 2016 / Hour 4, Block B: Sebastian v Gorka, Marine Corps University, in re:  Defeating Jihad: The Winnable War  (2 of 2)
Wednesday   4 May 2016 / Hour 4, Block C: Aaron Klein, Breitbart Middle East Bureau Chief; in re:  Mr Trump’s positions on the Middle East and Israel.  Abbas’s typically murky and bizarre provocations. Hamas new terrorism tunnels - Hamas seems to think that Israel will attack Gaza, which Israel specifically does not want to do.
Wednesday   4 May 2016 / Hour 4, Block D:   Aaron Klein, Breitbart Middle East Bureau Chief; in re:  Syria and Iran.
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