Photo, above: Khotan is an oasis city in East Turkestan (Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of the People's Republic of China). These are Uyghur children at Sunday market. See Hour 2, Block B, Elliot Sperling, Department of Central Eurasian Studies at Indiana University Bloomington.

JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW

Co-hosts: Gordon Chang, Forbes.com & Dr. David M. Livingston, The Space Show

Hour One

Wednesday  8 October  2014 / Hour 1, Block A: Phelim Kine, deputy director in Human Rights Watch's Asia Division, in re:  the Hong Kong protests.

Wednesday  8 October  2014 / Hour 1, Block B: Harry Kazianis, managing editor of the National Interest and a non-resident senior fellow at the China Policy Institute, in re:  the Taiwan aspects of  Is Xi Losing Control of China's ‘Peripheries’?  Hong Kong, Xinjiang, Taiwan — they’re all connected and Xi’s losing control. As tens of thousands of activists continue to defy the authorities in Hong Kong by occupying entire city blocs in the heart of the city, and with weekly reports of escalating violence in restive Xinjiang, the central government in Beijing seems to be losing its grip on what the Chinese regard as the “peripheries.” Recent comments by President Xi Jinping about yet another piece in China’s puzzle of instability—Taiwan—suggest that the leadership may be panicking.

Before we proceed, it’s important to point out that the two territories and Taiwan are different issues altogether: The first two are politically part of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) while Taiwan is a self-ruled entity operating under its own set of rules and constitution, that of the Republic of China (ROC). Furthermore, Taiwan is democratic and was never part of the PRC, whereas Hong Kong was “returned” to the PRC in 1997 and can only aspire to a democratic system, a situation that is . . .

Wednesday  8 October  2014 / Hour 1, Block C: Heather A Knutson, Geological & Planetary Sciences, California Institute of Technology, in re: NASA Press release: Telescopes Find Clear Skies and Water Vapor on Exoplanet   Astronomers using data from three of NASA's space telescopes -- Hubble, Spitzer and Kepler -- have discovered clear skies and steamy water vapor on a gaseous planet outside our solar system. The planet is about the size of Neptune, making it the smallest planet from which molecules of any kind have been detected.

“This discovery is a significant milepost on the road to eventually analyzing the atmospheric composition of smaller, rocky planets more like Earth,” said John Grunsfeld, assistant administrator of NASA’s Science Mission Directorate in Washington. “Such achievements are only possible today with the combined capabilities of these unique and powerful observatories.”

Clouds in a planet’s atmosphere can block the view to underlying molecules that reveal information about the planet’s composition and history. Finding clear skies on a Neptune-size planet is a good sign that smaller planets might have similarly good visibility.

"When astronomers go observing at night with telescopes, they say 'clear skies' to mean good luck," said Jonathan Fraine of the University of Maryland, College Park, lead author of a new study appearing in Nature. "In this case, we found clear skies on a distant planet. That's lucky for us because it means clouds didn't block our view of water molecules."  The planet, HAT-P-11b, is categorized as an exo-Neptune -- a Neptune-sized planet that orbits the star HAT-P-11. It is located 120 light-years away in the constellation Cygnus. This planet orbits closer to its star than does our Neptune, making one lap roughly every five days. It is a warm world thought to have . . .  [more]

Wednesday  8 October  2014 / Hour 1, Block D:  Heather Timmons, Quartz, in re:  Pro-Beijing groups are systematically attacking protests in Hong Kong.   How Hong Kong’s umbrella revolutionaries shut down the government, at least temporarily

Hour Two

Wednesday  8 October  2014 / Hour 2, Block A: Julia Famularo, research affiliate at Project 2049 Institute, in re:  Tibet and Is Xi Losing Control of China's ‘Peripheries’?  Hong Kong, Xinjiang, Taiwan — they’re all connected and Xi’s losing control.  Far from Hong Kong, ethnic minority regions in China are a tinderbox of tension.  As the Hong Kong demonstrations continue, foreign observers question whether the democracy movement might embolden minority groups seeking greater autonomy in Tibet or Xinjiang, also known as East Turkistan. Like Hong Kong, these regions were once promised greater autonomy, but have yet to see it fully realized.

Before the Chinese Communist Party actually ruled the country, the 1931 Chinese Soviet Republic Constitution recognized “the right of national self-determination of ethnic minorities within the borders of China,” as well as their right to secession. Mao Zedong backtracked on this position by the time the People’s Republic of China (PRC) was founded in 1949. The Chinese annexed ethnic minority regions and said they would grant Tibetans and Uighurs autonomy. However, critics argue that Beijing has failed to adhere to the rule of law by denying ethno-religious minorities the rights and freedoms originally promised.

Beijing has never considered applying the “one country, two systems” framework to Xinjiang or Tibet. Authorities argue that this framework would be “inappropriate,” as the 1984 Regional Ethnic Autonomy Law, in theory, already guarantees ethnic minorities the right to manage their own internal affairs.

Yet, in reality, instead of fostering self-rule or even protecting local cultures, Chinese authorities place ethnic, religious, and linguistic restrictions on Tibetans and Turkic Muslims.

Manifestations of traditional identity that officials once deemed innocuous are increasingly considered subversive. Beijing demands unwavering loyalty to the Party-State, and promotes so-called “ethnic unity” through pervasive ideological, patriotic, and educational campaigns.

However, this policy is proving ineffective and unsustainable. Since Xi Jinping took over the Chinese Communist Party leadership in November 2012, acts of protest and unrest have risen dramatically. At least 127 self-immolations have occurred in ethnically Tibetan regions. Many who set themselves ablaze called for greater freedoms and the return of the Dalai Lama to Tibet. Chinese authorities have responded by criminalizing self-immolations. Some survivors, as well as friends and family members of self-immolators, are politically persecuted or ‘disappeared.’

During this same period, 62 violent incidents have taken place in Xinjiang. The vast majority of these are acts of either inter-ethnic violence or confrontations between individuals or small groups of Uighurs and police. Authorities responded by launching an anti-terror campaign in May 2014.

Critics argue that tensions will continue to rise until China adopts effective mechanisms for minorities to peacefully express their grievances. Yet, Beijing consistently contends that so-called “hostile external forces”—rather than Chinese Communist Party policies—are responsible for demonstrations or unrest in Xinjiang, Tibet, and now Hong Kong.

As counterproductive Chinese policies remain unaddressed, minority regions have become a tinderbox of tension. Observers fear that without dialogue and reforms, a single match could spark an explosion.

So, could the Hong Kong protests be that spark? It’s unlikely.  It is hard for the average Tibetan or Uighur to access news regarding demonstrations, unrest, or even civil-society activism. A savvy netizen in Shanghai is likely to read about recent events in Hong Kong, but it is uncommon for the average Uighur in Urumqi (the region’s capital) to hear about unrest in nearby cities, much less have real-time access to this news.

The palpable political pressure on local residents means that they’re also less likely to discuss such matters, since authorities can arrest Chinese citizens for “spreading rumors.” Even if groups of Uighurs or Tibetans attempted to occupy major cities in their home regions, authorities would not tolerate ethno-religious minorities engaging in massive acts of civil disobedience. Demonstrators could well suffer a far worse fate than tear gas, and it is doubtful that they would receive any opportunity to negotiate with regional leaders.

But while Hong Kong style protests are unlikely to spread any time soon, Beijing’s counterproductive policies will continue to breed instability that could potentially lead to violence. Uighur exile leader Rebiya Kadeer says that the community will continue to seek “dialogue with China,” adding that “if we push for independence, it is a given that there will be bloodshed. In that case, both Uighurs and Chinese alike will be the victims.”

Map, below: Uyghur Khaganate (AD 744–840)

Wednesday  8 October  2014 / Hour 2, Block B: Elliot Sperling, Department of Central Eurasian Studies at Indiana University Baloomingstan, in re:   When Uyghurs demonstrate they’re met with extreme oppression and violence.  Ilhan Tohti [pron: toch-ti], economics professor just sentenced to life in prison for doing nothing. His hukou [legal residence] is Beijing, where by law he should have been tried, but the officials  HH the Dalai Lama is extremely naïf about China and his prime minister ah offered to accept Chinese suzerainty and no democracy n Tibet.  Were His Holiness to visit anywhere on the plateau, Tibetans form all over would go to meet him – an appalling notion for Beijing.  As for why Hong Kong got democracy and Tibet didn’t, Beijing never intended to give real democracy to HK, and in any case it has a much more important economic role than Tibet does.  Everybody in Tibet remembers China's consolidation of control over the Tibetan plateau: mass deaths.  Recent incidents of self-immolation: Tibetans can’t gather as Hong Kongnese do and go have a demonstration; only an individual with kerosene and a match can make a statement.

China sentences prominent Uyghur scholar to life in prison for 'separatism'   Less than a week after a tightly controlled trial, a Chinese court Tuesday found a prominent Uyghur scholar guilty of "separatism" and sentenced him to life in prison, his lawyer said. Ilham Tohti, an economics professor at Beijing's Minzu University, was tried for two days last week at the Intermediate People's Court in Urumqi, capital of Xinjiang. The trial took place in China's restive western region where a spate of recent violent incidents have been blamed by the government on Muslim Uyghur separatists seeking to establish an independent state. The court also ordered the confiscation of all of Tohti's assets, said Liu Xiaoyuan, one of Tohti's lawyers, Police detained the 44-year-old academic -- along with several of his students -- in Beijing in January and took him to his native Xinjiang. Tohti spent months in jail before state prosecutors charged him with the serious crime of "splitting the country."  Uyghur scholar on trial for 'separatism' Xinjiang attacks shifting to civilians Explosions in Xinjiang region of China Liu told CNN before the court announcement that . . .  [more]

Wednesday  8 October  2014 / Hour 2, Block C:  David Feith, WSJ Hong Kong, in re: Chinese Mainland censors were twice as busy trying to zap HK demo info as they were in June, trying to zap June's Tien An Men anniversary.  Risk of contagion on Mainland!  If HK were to get self-governance, that might spread to China's cities; further, HK is ever more effective in conveying its frustrations.  Last decades are in some ways an economic miracle, but it’s mostly just the central govt's lifting its boot off people's neck so they could function.  They farmed their own plots, established their own businesses.  Beijing's position is unsustainable: the people move forward, the govt is off-balance and knows nly to come down with more power. Like al the rest of history, bound to have huge dissatisfaction with too much centralized power.  Will puncture the common Western thinking of China's being the dominant force of the coming century.  Beijing's project is imperial and enormously complex – ethnically, geographically, economically. Possible to group KH with Xinjiang and Tibet; on other ways, not at all: it’s China's most sophisticated city – advanced, high-tech.   HK's colonial relations with Beijing don't work.    Recall Xi forcing 18 generals to swear allegiance directly to him – the deed of a tyrant. Di Xi's abuse of power weaken China?   He's overreaching. From 2007 to 2013, XI had the Hong Kong portfolio, so these are his policies.  Because in the five years before Xi became supremo he ran Beijing's policies to HK, that makes the d=current demos even more disgraceful.  He staffed the bureaucracy with his sort of hard-line guys so the govt is less flexible to position than it would have been had the apparatchiks been less rigid.  His domestic opponents will use HK against him. The demos restart on Friday; this could be the calm before the storm.  In X number of weeks, the talks will fall apart.   World Bank trims China, East Asia 2014-2016 growth forecasts .

Hong Kong at the Barricades.  The democracy movement’s lack of central leadership is its strength and weakness.  Monday at 4 a.m. was supposed to be zero hour here. With student-led pro-democracy protesters occupying three downtown areas this weekend, including the perimeter of the local government offices, embattled Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying threatened to “take all necessary actions” to clear streets by Monday morning. Police had already tear-gassed demonstrators last week and made a show of stockpiling rubber bullets in their garrisons. When Mr. Leung announced his deadline, concerns mounted and memories inevitably harked back to Tiananmen 1989.

Wednesday  8 October  2014 / Hour 2, Block D: Abheek Bhattacharya, WSJ, in re: India:  Modi is a rock star; economy: will you regulate it well or is the cost of business prohibitively high?  need a level playing field; is making a few reforms.  Titanic confrontation: Modi, BJP, vs the head of the central bank, who’s keen to fight inflation. So far, he (Mr Rajan) has held his ground. In the next 12 mos he'll have to hike interest rates, which will annoy many.  Everyone expected MOdi to be a Thatcher-like character creating huge reforms. In fact, general reform demands a coalition (federalist set-up) ; this may come to pass as BJP wins more Upper-House seat and more in states; but Modi is more in the mold of Lee Kuan-yu or Deng Xiao-ping.  One reform: price of certain commodities: subsidies on oil and gas; also labor and land.  There's good movement of labor but not now of land.  Don't subsidize.  Back off and give people property rights.  Now, prohibitively expensive to acquire land. 

Hour Three

Wednesday  8 October  2014 / Hour 3, Block A:  Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor; in re: NATIONAL POLITICS  Stacked Deck   While the outcomes of presidential races are pretty much decided by how the swing, or "purple," states split, in the fight for control of the U.S. Senate that is not always the case. The challenge for Democrats in this election is having so many seats up in very Republican states. Seven of those seats are in states carried by Mitt Romney, and—tougher still—six of the seven are states Romney carried by 14 points or more. [more]  (1 of 2)

Wednesday  8 October  2014 / Hour 3, Block B: Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor; in re: NATIONAL POLITICS  Stacked Deck   While the outcomes of presidential races are pretty much decided by how the swing, or "purple," states split, in the fight for control of the U.S. Senate that is not always the case. The challenge for Democrats in this election is having so many seats up in very Republican states. Seven of those seats are in states carried by Mitt Romney, and—tougher still—six of the seven are states Romney carried by 14 points or more. [more]  (2 of 2)

Wednesday  8 October  2014 / Hour 3, Block C:  Ken Croswell, Science magazine, in re:  Water clouds tentatively detected just 7 light-years from Earth  Astronomers have found signs of water ice clouds on an object just 7.3 light-years from Earth—less than twice the distance of Alpha Centauri, the nearest star system to the sun. If confirmed, the discovery is the first sighting of water clouds beyond our solar system. The clouds shroud a Jupiter-sized object known as a brown dwarf and should yield insight into the nature of cool giant planets orbiting other suns.

Kevin Luhman, an astronomer at Pennsylvania State University, University Park, recently discovered the nearby object by using images from NASA’s WISE infrared space telescope, which scanned the sky from 2010 to 2011. A brown dwarf is a failed star and has so little mass that it can't sustain nuclear reactions, so after its birth it fades and cools. This brown dwarf, named WISE J0855-0714, is the coldest known. Its temperature is slightly below the freezing point of water, so it's colder than Earth's mean temperature but warmer than Jupiter’s.

"I've been obsessed with this object since its discovery," says astronomer Jacqueline Faherty of the Carnegie Institution for Science in Washington, D.C. The new neighbor resembles a giant planet—it's as large as Jupiter and three to 10 times as massive—but is solitary, which means it has no sun whose glare interferes with our view of it. Moreover, it's nearby: the fourth -closest . . .

Wednesday  8 October  2014 / Hour 3, Block D:   Salena Zito, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review & Pirates fan, in re:  Although it closed decades ago, the G.C. Murphy Co. name remains integrated on the tiled floor of Founders Crossing, an antique store and café now occupying the corner of Lincoln Highway and Juliana Street here . . .   here for link:

Hour Four

Wednesday  8 October  2014 / Hour 4, Block A: Last Stand at Khe Sanh: The U.S. Marines' Finest Hour in Vietnam by Gregg Jones (1 of 4)

Wednesday  8 October  2014 / Hour 4, Block B: Last Stand at Khe Sanh: The U.S. Marines' Finest Hour in Vietnam by Gregg Jones (2 of 4)

Wednesday  8 October  2014 / Hour 4, Block C: Last Stand at Khe Sanh: The U.S. Marines' Finest Hour in Vietnam by Gregg Jones (3 of 4)

Wednesday  8 October  2014 / Hour 4, Block D: Last Stand at Khe Sanh: The U.S. Marines' Finest Hour in Vietnam by Gregg Jones (4 of 4)