Wednesday 9 July 2014
Photo, above: Iron Dome intercepting a rocket above a populated Israeli area during the fourth day of the operation
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Hour One
Wednesday 9 July 2014 / Hour 1, Block A: Arthur Waldron, Lauder Professor of International Relations at the University of Pennsylvania, in re: Arthur Waldron and Gordon Chang have watched the Communist Party tyrannize and terrorize the Chinese people for years, but now the actions of the top leadership are growing bizarre. There is about the mediocre Xi an overweening ambition working to lift himself above his mediocre colleague, to become "a second Mao." "On a course that cannot be deterred" – and China is on a collision course with the US – this is becoming alarming. China has two or three very good strategies China could use to embetter the populace and the nation; but instead they're taking on everyone at once with a supreme arrogance in no way justified by their actual capabilities Began two years ago we=hen Xi too k over. the cry became, "What can we get?" Prof Xi Yin-hong said (approximately), Historically the motto has been, "We will go forward and we will win" – but now it’s more, "We'll press forward even if we can’t win." The standard evaluation of China is that they're pragmatic; it’s now transformed into a nightmare of igniting a conflict that can’t be controlled. "China will continue on its trajectory of popular nationalism, dynamics in the armed forces, and personal beliefs of strategic personalities." Historians are loath to recognize the role of individuals in history – Napoleon, Kim Il-Sung, many; Xi Jinping has a powerful ego and sense of mission, a kind of ruthlessness and willingness to take risks reminiscent of Stalin. Xi wants to impose direction, order. "We'll light the matches and start throwing them around." "What'll happen then?" "Dunno – but by God you won't stop us," say the aggressive PLA war-planners.
Wednesday 9 July 2014 / Hour 1, Block B: Elliott Sperling, University of Indiana at Bloomington ["Baloomingstan"], in re: I've been in China many times as a historian of Tibet; became friends with Ilhan Tochti and conversant with Uyghur; I believe that China's harassment of Uyghurs has crossed the line, trying to link Uyghur discontent to Islamist terrorism. So with a visa, I emplaned at Newark and arrived in Beijing, where my name was in a database and I was summarily returned to the US on the same plane They put a huge X in my assort that I'm on a blacklist, so I say with sarcasm that I've earned the CCP Human Rights Award. My scholarship is on ethics and good citizenship. I've been critical of both the Beijing administration and Tibetan exiles, although I hasten to say that there's no morel equivalence. The CCP is incapable of asking, "what have we done wrong" so it must ask, "Who has done this to us?" They settled on Ilhan Tochti. H's never advocated independence for Xinjiang, but he's in prison now with very bleak prospects. I dolt accept being threatened. Has US State Dept communicated with you on this? They find it "not good."
Wednesday 9 July 2014 / Hour 1, Block C: Michael Listner, Esq., in re: Property rights in space law is exciting. We start with "Elon Musk wants it all." Has moved vs the Air Force and United Launch Alliance because of what he calls a sweetheart deal. Problem is contracts to United Launch Alliance: Says RD180 engine mfrd in Russia badly affected US natl security, questioned Air Force entire procurement methods – incl weapons and services. Musk says he's a competitive bidder and can make everything in the US. Sole-source contract from ULA is the focus. Standing in federal court: you have a stake in the outcome. Air Force says that Musk doesn’t have standing. SpaceX says that it should be allowed to bid on this block buy because if it were successful it could flourish and have everything American-made; under regs, it had to make this assertion before contract was awarded. SpaceX, which technically does not have standing, is mudding the professional waters around it. . . . Once there was maritime law. Then along came aircraft. Space law is now where aviation law was in the 1920s. Recall sweetheart deals to deliver the mail by air. Lots of money. We're at least a decade away from major privatization. Difficult to engineer spacecraft.
Wednesday 9 July 2014 / Hour 1, Block D: Gordon Chang, Forbes.com, in re: China.
Hour Two
Wednesday 9 July 2014 / Hour 2, Block A: Stephen Yates, chief executive officer of D.C. International Advisory and former advisor to Vice President Dick Cheney, in re: Yang Jiechi is called Tiger Yang, is friends with many important Americans. Secy Kerry, Jack Lou, Janet Yellin, all visited , accomplish nothing. Bilateral investment treaty? Wouldn't have an impact and is irrelevant. US negotiate deals, Chinese dishonor the treaties, and US can't retaliate. Chinese steal $110 bil of intellectual property a year; the cost of talking about it is a trillion dollars a decade. NYT: Chinese hackers broke into computers with all federal officials listed, went to look for all those who'd applied for top-level security clearance – to figure out how to buy agents or flip employees. US needs to say: We're happy to meet with Chinese officials when they're serious. Cybersecurity, regional territorial claims by China. And btw let them come to the US and spend their money in US hotels and restaurant . There is zero leverage with Chinese officials if you get angry in private; only leverage is to be public. "I will be departing with my group forthwith and will look forward to your response when I return home."
Wednesday 9 July 2014 / Hour 2, Block B: Anne Stevenson Yang, co-founder of J Capital Research and author of China Alone: The Emergence from, and Potential Return to Isolation, in re: Anne's addition columns do not match those of the Chinese iron and steel trade associations. China's numbers are getting worse, not better. In the eagerness of the Chinese Steel Assn (CSIA) to give numbers to the government, they actually added things up wrong. . . They come up with a politically-directed conclusion and then make the numbers fit. Can change comparative bases, add or remove a few companies,,. Bureau of Statistics is subsidiary to the Party, has no structural independence. Premier Li Kaichung has been saying that Q2 was better than Q1. In fact, the economy is volatile and cyclical, but no way was it 7.4 %. . . . Anticipation of rot. US level of investment is lower than was expected. Long period of deflation and slow growth coming in China. Good for Fed for saying today it'll cut ff the bond program this fall. June was 28th straight month of declining PPI. Year to date total doesn’t match . . . number. Added new category no one's ever heard of; imposed by the political structure. Ghost steel mills?
Wednesday 9 July 2014 / Hour 2, Block C: David J Feith, WSJ in Hong Kong, in re: China's New Freedom Fighters. Bennie Tai, 49 years old, a law professor, seen as an enemy of the state. Trying to pressure Chinese central govt in Beijing and HK allies to honor their commitment to HK for democratic self-government, Initially, trying via open politics and free speech; says that if it continues to break promises, he'll lead a movement of civil disobedience that will paralyze parts of downtown. Occupy Central recently had 800,000 people in a demonstration! (an unofficial referendum.) (Completely legal.) HK still has free speech and autonomy; Beijing was disquieted to see this enormous showing, as well as the huge, overflowing annual democracy march – grandmothers, parents, toddlers; the largest march either ever or in a decade. Benny Tai for 18 months has been talking about the prospect of bringing 10,000 people to Occupy Central in civil disobedience. May Fourth Movement! Large acts of political speech are legal in Hong Kong; but the govt is now becoming less tolerant. The fellows sitting on Beijing trying to keep a lid on 1.3 billion people are understandably worried about liberty in Hong Kong. July 10 White Paper on Hong Kong Policy – prepared over the course of year, released simultaneously in six languages, characterized K=HK not as a special administrative region but as merely a "local" region; dishonored judicial independence – 1,800 lawyers dressed in black and marched to the Court of Final Appeal to protest their being described as low-level administrators who "must love their country." Inflamed the whole situation.
Wednesday 9 July 2014 / Hour 2, Block D: Joseph Sternberg, WSJ Asia editorial board, in re: Hybrid governance avail able to a city-state in flux. Gordon: "Right. It’s fluxed." HSBC issued a report downgrading HK because of Occupy Central; Big Four accounting firms have advertised their disapproval. Sinister. Many big companies doing business with Beijing are susceptible to Communist Party pressure against democracy n Hong Kong. Clearly there's already been much pressure. incl not to advertise in pro-free-speech newspapers. Companies exercise disproportional power because companies are allowed to vote! The system has turned companies into voting citizens. An anonymous group of Big Four accounting firms took out their own ad to say the their bosses don’t speak for them. Cozy ties between firms and govt pose a reputational risk for the intl firms. The more Beijing tries to quash, the more protests. Ham-handed Beijing, which simply doesn’t get it.
Hour Three
Wednesday 9 July 2014 / Hour 3, Block A: Monica Crowley, Fox, and Washington Times Online opinion editor; in re: Republicans decided to hold their convention in Cleveland – "inspired." Jeb Bush and Chris Christie have already tied up all the main GOP donors. Candidates need to prove that they can attract big money, and are consequently having a hard time. Will we fight immigration the Cleveland convention? Yes. Cleveland to host 2016 GOP convention Cleveland will host the 2016 Republican National Convention after beating out Dallas for the final nod, putting the party's nomination festivities . . .
Wednesday 9 July 2014 / Hour 3, Block B: James Taranto, WSJ, in re: Senator Slippery Slope Mark Udall's war on logic. "Mark Udall has a target on his back?" Also: Hobby Lobby!
Wednesday 9 July 2014 / Hour 3, Block C: Aaron Klein, AaronKleinOnline (1 of 2), in re: Israel faces Hamas, strikes rocketeers. Hamas rockets were aimed at Ben Gurion Airport and actually closed it down briefly; frogmen endeavored to invade by sea. IDF gathering heavy eqpt and lots of soldiers - 40,000 reservists? Israel bombs rocket-launchers in Gaza.
Wednesday 9 July 2014 / Hour 3, Block D: Aaron Klein, AaronKleinOnline (2 of 2), in re: Hamas rockets reach the north, Abbas charges Israel with genocide
Hour Four
Wednesday 9 July 2014 / Hour 4, Block A: Tyler Rogoway, FoxTrotAlpha.com http://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/axing-f-35s-alternative-engine-was-an-incredibly-stupid-1601589678
Wednesday 9 July 2014 / Hour 4, Block B: Tyler Rogoway, FoxTrotAlpha.com http://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/axing-f-35s-alternative-engine-was-an-incredibly-stupid-1601589678
Wednesday 9 July 2014 / Hour 4, Block C: Richard A Epstein, Hoover Institution, Chicago Law (1 of 2), in re: In McCullen v. Coakley, the Supreme Court was confronted with a controversial First Amendment challenge to a Massachusetts statute that imposed a 35-foot buffer zone around abortion clinics. That statute was challenged by Eleanor McCullen, an antiabortion advocate, who claimed that it infringed on her right to offer “compassionate and caring alternatives” to women about to have an abortion. The Court unanimously struck down the law in two contrasting opinions. But the Court got it wrong: The statute should have been upheld . . . [more]
Wednesday 9 July 2014 / Hour 4, Block D: : Richard A Epstein, Hoover Institution, Chicago Law (2 of 2).
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